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NPOESS (click to view full)

The National Polar-orbiting Observing Satellite System (NPOESS) is a joint program of the Department of Defense, Department of Commerce and the NASA that will help develop 3-7 day weather forecasts for civilian and military purposes, replacing less sophisticated satellites that are expected to fail over the next several years. Those forecasts include weather like hurricanes, tornadoes, et. al. Unfortunately, it now appears that NPOESS could be as much as $3 billion over budget, and that it is not expected to be launched until 2012 – 3 years later than even the most recent program plan, and at least 6 years later than earlier projections. Some gaps in coverage are possible during that time, if enough older satellites fail.

In November 2005 testimony given at a House of Congress Science Committee hearing, the Administrator of NOAA and the Undersecretary of the Air Force promised new cost and schedule estimates and policy options, as well as fuller and more rapid information. Nor are these the only changes underway in NPOESS, which was openly described as “a program in crisis”... DID’s updates you with some contract history, and recaps the program’s issues and changes in the wake of a recent $2+ billion contract…

Katrina (click to view full)

The NPOESS program is a joint DoD/DoC/NASA endeavor that integrates the capabilities and infrastructure of the DoC Polar-Orbiting Environmental Satellite Program, the DoD Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, and NASA’s long-term continuous climate record collection. It is intended to serve as a single, integrated satellite system satisfying both civil and national security requirements for space-based, remotely sensed environmental data that will significantly improve weather forecasting and climate prediction.

NPOESS is the result of merging 2 separate satellite programs during the Clinton administration. NOAA relies on two key systems for its weather forecasts. One is the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), which provides continuous imaging and sounding data of the Western Hemisphere feeding into short-range weather forecasts and the USA’s ability to observe extreme weather events. It isn’t part of this program. The Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) program provides global images and atmospheric measurements a few times a day, which feeds global weather models that are critical to the mid-long range forecasts. NPOESS results in merging the POESS’ civilian and military programs into one future satellite system going forward. NPOESS contemplates a series of 6 satellites, with a maximum of 3 operating at any given time (early morning, mid morning, and early afternoon orbits).

The United States will supplement observations from NPOESS with data provided by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) series of MetOp satellites.

DID has mentioned NPOESS in the past in its coverage of America’s satellite program overruns, and the program was also noted specifically in the most recent DoD Selected Acquisition Reports for breaching Nunn-McCurdy cost growth caps.

While the ground-based component of NPOESS is on budget and on schedule, the cannot be said of its sensors, many of which are considerably more advanced than current technologies. Under the NPOESS program, 14 different sensors are being developed; 7 are new or modified designs, and the other half have designs similar or identical to already-built instruments. The new NPOESS sensors are intended to provide higher quality data, increase the satellites’ ability to see through clouds, and beam the information back more often than current polar satellites. Given that satellites provide over 90% of the data used in weather forecasting models These improvements would translate into more sophisticated weather models, better forecasts, and earlier warnings.

That innovation has come at a cost.

In a November 2005 hearing, Dr. Livanos of Northrop-Grumman estimated that fully 80% of the project delays and budget issues were sensor related. NOAA Administrator Vice-Adm. Conrad Lautenbacher (ret.), meanwhile, specifically noted the Raytheon-led Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and the Boeing-led Conical Microwave Imager/Sounder (CMIS) as key potential areas for further cost and schedule risk. DID notes a recent DefenseLINK contract at the end of this article that offers a partial window into ongoing CMIS work.

House Science Committee Chairman Sherwood Boehlert [R-NY] was more than slightly peeved:

“It is now clear that, almost from the outset, decisions were made with too little analysis of the technical challenges involved in building NPOESS. It is clear that contracts were awarded at prices that did not take into account the technical risks the program faced. And it is clear that the program was inadequately supervised, allowing problems to fester and worsen before being addressed. What’s not so clear is whether these inadequacies are behind us…”

For instance, one of the most controversial decisions at the time of those hearings was the fact that NOAA and the Defense Department apparently chose not to seek additional funding in FY 2006 and 2007. Yet prime contractor Northrop-Grumman testified that increased funds in those years would significantly reduce life cycle costs, help resolve looming technical problems sooner, decrease the risk of a gap in weather satellite coverage, and increase the chances that the NPOESS development program overall will be successful.

To add fuel to the fire, there have also been repeated and bipartisan complaints from the Science Committee that NOAA has withheld information on NPOESS in the past. NOAA (which is under the US Department of Commerce) attributes document delays to the slow inter-agency approval process, but pledged to do better.

David Powner, Government Accountability Office (GAO) Director of Information Technology Management Issues, told the Nov 16/05 hearing:

“NPOESS is a program in crisis…. The current direction for the program is at a standstill, as options are being weighed to minimize cost overruns, schedule delays, and affects on users…. Management problems at multiple levels – subcontractor, contractor, program office, and executive leadership – have contributed to these cost and schedule issues.”

Aviation Week reports that between the time the the overruns came to light earlier in 2005 and the November hearings, the former NPOESS Integrated Project Office system director has resigned, prime contractor Northrop Grumman has replaced its NPOESS program manager, and Raytheon has brought in a new team to oversee the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). Other changes include altering chain of command structures and the flow of information, increasing communication between Northrop Grumman and its subcontractors (over 70% of the program is subcontracted effort), and commissioning external reviews of the VIIRS component and the cost and schedule estimates for the program as a whole.

NOAA Administrator Lautenbacher said at the time that he was not convinced that more money was what the program needs in the short term, although he would be willing to ask for them in a supplemental budget request if the NPOESS executive committee deems it necessary. That line was held, and a 1-year restructuring took place in 2006-2007 in order to put the project back on solid footing.

That restructuring did more than change the way the project was managed. A number of planned sensors were removed from the program, lowering the final product’s capabilities but removing items that were creating cost and schedule problems. Fortunately, NPOESS is designed to host a wide variety of sensors on a common spacecraft bus. The satellites have power and deck space to accommodate growth, along with high data throughput and extremely accurate pointing and stability. This will allow the satellites to accommodate de-manifested sensors and future sensors at less cost, and the restructuring opens the door to re-integration of some of the removed sensors if time and funds permit.

The current schedule calls for the NPOESS Preparatory Project, a risk reduction satellite flying NPOESS sensors, to be launched in 2009, and for the first NPOESS satellite to be launched in 2013.

In the wake of 2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, program administrators can expect that Congress will cut them little to no slack. Whatever the way forward proves to be, one can predict that it will be intensely political – and that NPOESS will remain a hot issue for a while.

NPOESS CMIS: A Contract Illustrates

Meanwhile, on the contracting front, DefenseLINK recently provided a small window into one of the changes now underway:

Nov 18/05: Northrop Grumman Space and Mission Systems Corp. in Redondo Beach, CA received a $12.3 million cost plus award fee contract modification to the National Polar-orbiting Operating Environmental Satellite Systems (NPOESS). The Acquisition and Operations Contract will inciorporate a Contract Change Proposal to transfer the Conical Scanning Microwave Imager Sounder (CMIS) momentum wheel compensation responsibility from Boeing Satellite System (BSS) to Northrop Grumman Space Technology.

Why?

The NPOESS Satellite design includes a large spinning reflector as part of the CMIS sensor, which requires Momentum Wheel Assemblies (MWAs) to compensate for the torque and momentum applied to the spacecraft. The baseline design had Boeing Satellite supplying the MWAs as part of the CMIS Sensor. However, during development of a CMIS radio frequency interference mitigation change, it was recognized that CMIS faults could result in spacecraft level faults. Trade studies revealed that if the spacecraft attitude control subsystem developed by Northrop Grumman performed momentum compensation for CMIS, them CMIS-related anomalies would have lower impact on the overall mission performance.

Other Contracts & Key Events

Unless otherwise noted, all contracts are issued to Northrop Grumman Space and Mission Systems Corp. in Redondo Beach, CA by the NPOESS Integrated Program Office in Silver Spring, MD.

Oct 31/07: Raytheon announces that they have worked with Northrop Grumman Corp. and the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Integrated Program Office (IPO) to successfully hand the NPOESS command, control and communications segment (C3S) over to the operations and support team. This milestone culminated more than 4 years of development, and includes all C3S hardware and software needed for the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) mission.

Northrop Grumman is the prime contractor and has overall responsibility for the program development effort; Raytheon IIS is part of their NPOESS team.

July 30/07: A cost-plus-award-fee with multiple incentives contract modification for $2.34 billion. This modification will incorporate Engineering Change Proposal (ECP-13) Restructure to the NPOESS Acquisition and Operations Contract as directed by the NPOESS Acquisition Decision Memorandum (ADM) dated 5 June 2006. At this time, no funds have been obligated. Work will be complete September 2016 (F04701-02-C-0502/P00072).

The key features of the modification are:

• 2 Engineering Manufacturing Development (EMD) satellites with a production option for 2 additional satellites.
• Revised fee structure with emphasis on incentives for cost, schedule and technical performance.
• The sensor suite has been reworked to conform to the ADM direction.
• 5 sensors were removed from the manifest to reduce risk.

July 30/07: Northrop Grumman Corporation announces that it has finished restructuringthe NPOESS program, working in conjunction with the government’s tri-agency NPOESS Integrated Program Office. This represents the end of a rigorous year-long effort to re-plan virtually every aspect of the NPOESS program, and the Northrop Grumman-led team has now been on cost and on schedule for the past 21 months. Significant progress has been made, including:

*Completing testing on the Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) engineering development model and starting integrated sensor testing on the VIIRS first flight unit; *Completing key NPP spacecraft temperature and ambient tests; *Developing initial versions of all the end-product environmental data record algorithms; *Successfully commanding the NPP spacecraft using the NPOESS/NPP command, communication and control system in NOAA’s Satellite Operations Facility; *Completing development of the satellite and ground control system for the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP), a risk reduction mission; *Completing 4 out of 5 planned iterations of the ground mission data processing software.

See NGC release.

April 9/07: The Pentagon releases its April 2007 Selected Acquisition Report, and NPOESS is one of the systems covered:

“Program costs decreased by $2,649.6 million (-19.2 percent) from $13,810.2 million to $11,160.6 million, due primarily to the decisions made as a result of a Nunn-McCurdy certification process that concluded in June 2006. The findings and recommendations coming out of the Nunn-McCurdy certification resulted in significant changes to the satellite procurement quantity, launch dates, sensor payloads, and funding. The Conical Scanning Microwave Imager/Sounder (CMIS) and seven other sensors were demanifested from the program (-$570.6 million), the development baseline program was restructured (-$506.2 million), the quantity of procurement satellites was reduced from 4 to 2 (-$594.5 million), the procurement baseline program was restructured (-$772.2 million), and the procurement costs were reduced due to the demanifestation of the sensors (-$292.1 million).”

July 10/06: A $18.4 million cost-plus-award-fee contract modification to incorporate ECP-11 trusted computer security evaluation criteria requirements; Department of Defense (DoD) Directive 8500, and federal information processing standards (FIPS) 140-2 into the national polar-orbiting environmental satellite system acquisition and operations contract. At the time of contract award, DoD Directive 5200.28 governed information assurance; DoD Directive 8500.1 governed information assurance and D0D instruction 8500.2 updated the standard for information assurance. DoD 8500 also cited another updated requirement for FIPS 140-2 security requirements for cryptographic module, which precludes the use of unvalidated cryptography for cryptographic protection of unclassified (sensitive or valuable) data in all federal systems. Negotiations were complete in September 2005, and work will be complete April 2012 (F04701-02-C-0502/P00049).

April 3/06: A $16.7 million cost-plus award fee contract modification covers an Engineering Change proposal to mitigate the adverse effects of radio frequency interference on the Conical Scanning Microwave Imager/Sounder (CMIS) instrument, stemming from man-made radio frequency transmitters on the ground. The modification will result in a redesign of the system to incorporate sub-banding. The CMIS is being developed by Boeing Satellite System (BSS), a subcontractor to Northrop Grumman Space Technology, and this change affects both satellites in the phase of this contract. The National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service in Silver Springs, MD issued the contract (FO4701-02-C-0502/P00057).

Nov 18/05: Northrop Grumman Space and Mission Systems Corp. in Redondo Beach, CA received a $12.3 million cost plus award fee contract modification to the National Polar-orbiting Operating Environmental Satellite Systems (NPOESS). The Acquisition and Operations Contract will inciorporate a Contract Change Proposal to transfer the Conical Scanning Microwave Imager Sounder (CMIS) momentum wheel compensation responsibility from Boeing Satellite System (BSS) to Northrop Grumman Space Technology.

The locations of performance are Northrop Grumman Space and Missions Systems Corporation, Redondo Beach, CA (51%) and Honeywell International Incorporated, Defense and Space Electronics Systems in Glendale, AZ (25%) (F04701-02-C-0502/P00054).

June 2/04: a $5.3 million cost-plus award-fee contract modification. This covers a Svalbard Initial Mission Recovery (SIMR) Modification to the NPOESS, to allow the Svalbard, Norway, ground station to recover data from the Navy’s Wind Sat/Coriolis mission, provide routing of mission data for NASA missions, and options to recover data for Commerces Polar Orbiting Operating Environmental Satellite mission. SIMR will also serve as a risk-reduction effort for the NPOESS preparatory project data reception and routing. Locations of performance are: Raytheon Co. in Aurora, CO, and Kongsberg Satellite Service as (subcontractor to Raytheon) N-9292 in Tromso, Norway. No funds have been obligated. Negotiations were completed May 2004, and work will be complete by October 2006 (F04701-02-C-0502).

Feb 13/04: A $391.2 million cost-plus-award-fee contract modification to provide for the replan of the acquisition and operations contract for the NPOESS. This replan adjusts the program to match the funding profile by effecting the following schedule changes: availability of the NPOESS C1 satellite shifts from March 2008 to November 2009 and availability of the C2 satellite shifts from February 2009 to June 2011. This action also provides for 10 engineering changes that reduce technical risk and enhance system capabilities. The locations of performance are Northrop Grumman Space and Mission Systems Corp. in Redondo Beach, CA, and other locations. No funds have been obligated. Negotiations were completed November 2003, and work will be complete by June 2011 (F04701-02-C-0502, P00026).

Sept 16/03: A $15.7 million cost-plus award-fee contract modification to provide for integration of the qzone mapping profiler suite sensor onto the NPOESS preparatory project satellite scheduled for launch in FY2006. This flight will permit evaluation of critical sensor performance prior to the launch. This effort will be performed by Northrop Grumman in Redondo Beach, CA (40%), and Raytheon in Aurora, CO (60%). Negotiations were completed May 2003, and work will be complete by November 2015 (F04701-02-C-0502, P00021).

Sept 27/02: TRW in Redondo Beach, CA received a $48.7 million cost-plus award-fee contract modification to provide for design activities, including hardware and software modifications, necessary to incorporate the FT1394a data interface into the Crosstrack Infrared Sounder and the Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Sensors supporting the NPOESS. This effort also includes integration of Redundant Dood Latches and Telescope Launch Locks into the VIIRS sensors.

The locations of performance are Raytheon Co. Electronic Systems, Santa Barbara Remote Sensing, in Goleta, CA (47%), and other locations. At this time, no funds have been obligated. Solicitation began September 2002, negotiations were completed in September 2002, and work will be complete by March 2005. The Headquarters Space and Missile Systems Center in Los Angeles, CA issued the contract ((F04701-02-C-0502).

Aug 23/02: The Department of the Air Force, the Department of Commerce (DoC) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are announcing a $4.5 billion contract to provide for the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) acquisition and operation contract to TRW Space and Electronics. The acquisition and operation effort will include:

• Completing development of the NPOESS sensor payloads
• Sensors and integration support for the NPOESS Preparatory Project test mission
• Development and delivery of support, data processing and ground control hardware and software
• Development of the NPOESS space segment and integration with the launch segment
• Ongoing test, validation and calibration activities
• Production of two NPOESS spacecraft; and
• Operation of the NPOESS constellation through fiscal year 2011.

The contract includes options that provide for 4replenishment NPOESS spacecraft and operation of the NPOESS constellation from FY 2012 through FY 2018. The locations of performance are TRW Space and Electronics in Redondo Beach, CA (35%), Raytheon in Aurora, CO (27%) and other locations. At this time, $46 million of the funds have been obligated, and further funds will be obligated as individual delivery orders are issued. Solicitation began February 2002, negotiations were completed July 2002, and work will be complete by November 2015 (F04701-02-C-0502).

Nov 2005 DID Op/Ed: How About “Good Enough, and Working”?

(click to view full)

Given the level of difficulties experienced by this program to date, and the red ink in multiple US satellite programs, we’re surprised that a “cut-down NPOESS” option isn’t being floated as an alternative. The option of cutting new sensor arrays that are giving trouble and reverting to proven technologies might least be costed/scheduled out as a possible alternative in the reviews, as a potential option to help put the program closer to budget and possibly even back on schedule. With potential coverage gaps cited as a future risk, the schedule plusses alone could be decisive.

Then again, perhaps this option was floated. Northrop-Grumman’s Dr. Livanos:

“Earlier this year, as it became apparent the cost overruns associated with sensor development activity would exceed available reserves, we developed options for how to proceed with the overall program. We submitted more than 30 options to our customer and more recently, the Independent Program Assessment team, and anticipate receiving direction in early 2006 on the path forward.”

One would hope that a less-modernized NPOESS was one of those options, and that this option is receiving serious consideration. Budget funds are limited, and the USA’s consistent satellite program overruns are storing up long-term difficulties and cutbacks for other important areas of military modernization.

As DID has noted, some programs like SBIRS really are “no way out” options. NPOESS is indeed important, but we remain unconvinced that the marginal benefits described in Lautenbacher’s November 2005 Congressional testimony would really make enough difference on the ground to justify the costs, schedule, and even coverage risks that the required sensors are creating. For instance, even another 24 hours of warning – which would represent a huge capability improvement – would not have significantly changed the situation on the ground during Hurricane Katrina.

Additional Readings & Sources

• See all DID articles related to the NPOESS Program.

• NOAA – NPOESS Project Home Page

• NASA – NPP: NPOESS Preparatory Project. Designed as a risk-reduction element of NPOESS.

• US Congress, House Committee on Science (Nov 16/05) – Full Committee on Science – Hearing – Ongoing Problems and Future Plans for NOAA’s Weather Satellites

• Us Congress, House Committee On Science (Nov 16/05) – Written Testimony Of Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. (U.S. Navy, Ret.) Under Secretary Of Commerce For Oceans And Atmosphere And NOAA Administrator, National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department Of Commerce [PDF format]

• US Congress, House Committee on Science (Nov 16/05 Release) – “IN SUMMARY, NPOESS IS A PROGRAM IN CRISIS”

• European Space Agency (July 10/05) – Europe to launch its first polar-orbiting weather satellite. Their “MetOp” satellites will be operated in partnership with the NOAA’s polar weather satellite system. NOAA satellites will operate the ‘afternoon shift’ (i.e. cross the equator in the afternoon, local time), with the ESA’s MetOp taking over the ‘morning orbit’ service.

• SpaceWar – NPOESS $3B Over Budget

• Aviation Week (Nov 17/05) – Aerospace Daily & Defense Report

• DID (Nov 21/05) – US DoD Releases Acquisition Reports for Deviating & Milestoned Programs

• DID (Aug 4/05) – GAO Report: Satellite Programs Show Overruns Across the Board