• Who says you cannot make a U-turn with an aircraft carrier? Early media reports were right (it happens!), the UK officially confirmed [PDF] that it will switch its JSF order from the F-35C to the STOVL flavor:

“We expect HMS Queen Elizabeth to be handed over to the Navy in early 2017 for sea trials. We expect to take delivery of our first test aircraft in July of this year, and we expect the first production aircraft to be delivered to us in 2016, with flying from the Queen Elizabeth to begin in 2018, after her sea trials are complete.”

• Canada released its Report on Plans and Priorities 2012-13. It shows total expenses down 10.3% from last year to CAN $19.6B. Planned spending allocates 17.9% to land readiness, 11.6% to joint efforts, 11.4% to maritime readiness and 9.5% to aerospace. Land readiness is almost cut in half but is planned to go back above CAN $3.3B by 2013-14.

• DoD’s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) FY11 report [PDF] dates from February but was only released publicly earlier this week. Though the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is exempt from DFARS regulations, CAPE has started independently assessing the cost of their programs. They have focused so far on regular major programs (MDAPs) while they have worked mostly on the IT programs (MAIS) deemed to be in the worst shape. Also of note:
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• The US House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee quickly approved – behind closed doors – its markup for the FY13 funding bill. Today the Armed Services Committee is starting longer, more difficult discussions, but they will happen in the open [video]. More details in our ongoing coverage of the 2013 NDAA.

• With the release of its 2013 budget, Australia confirmed its delaying of the acquisition of 12 F-35s and other programs as well as some cancellations and early C-130H aircraft retirements. Major capital investments are reduced by AUS $664M. More materiel acquisition details in this PDF.

• According to The Telegraph the UK Ministry of Defence is about to announce that they will revert their decision to buy F-35Cs to choose instead F-35Bs STOVL, which would confirm earlier press reports.
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F-15SG, armed

At the dawn of the 21st century, Singapore decided that it needed a new aircraft to replace its often-upgraded A-4SU Super Skyhawks. This was hardly surprising; John McCain had been flying an older model A-4 Skyhawk when he was shot down during the Vietnam War. The decision to require a twin-engine aircraft eliminated the JAS-39 Gripen and F-16 E/F Block 60 from the competition, and the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet and Sukhoi Su-30 family were also scratched. That left just 3 finalists: Boeing’s F-15 Strike Eagle, France’s Rafale, and the Eurofighter Typhoon. Limited air-to-ground capabilities and a slow upgrade schedule splashed the Eurofighter, leaving just 2 contenders still flying.

September 2005 releases tapped Boeing as the winner, and the deal was done in December 2005. The order eventually rose to 24 planes, which was good news for Boeing: Singapore’s F-15SGs, and South Korea’s 60 plane F-15K order, kept the assembly line open. Singapore has legitimate grounds to argue that it’s flying the world’s most advanced version of the F-15 Strike Eagle – at least, until the new Saudi F-15SAs debut in a few years.

• The F-15SG [NEW]
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Appendix A: The F-15SG and the Global Fighter Market (2005)
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
  • Equipment
  • Other News & Developments
  • Market Analysis and Background
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No climbing Mt. Fuji

Back in February 2006, Inside The Air Force (ITAF) reported that momentum was building within the Air Force to sell the ultra-advanced F-22A Raptor abroad to trusted U.S. allies, as a way of increasing numbers and production. One of the most likely export prospects was Japan. The Raptor was discussed at a 2007 summit meeting, and in a number of other venues.

In the end, US politics denied export permission for downgraded export variants of the F-22, even as its production line was terminated. That has left Japan looking at other foreign fighter options in the short term, while considering a domestic fighter option as a long-term project. BAE patiently kept promoting the Eurofighter Typhoon, Boeing introduced a stealth F-15 variant before taking a different tack with its F/A-18 Super Hornet, and Lockheed Martin offered its F-35 models. The F-35A was eventually picked, but will its price cost it in Japan? This article looks at Japan’s current force, future options, and ongoing developments.

• The JASDF: Structure & Choices
  • What They Really Wanted: F-22s
• Japan’s F-X: Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
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• Hawker Beechcraft filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to restructure its debt.

• CACI’s Q3 FY 2012 results: $928M revenue (+1.6%), $2.04B funded backlog (+4.7%).

• The GAO’s latest reports on DoD logistics look at Item Unique Identification (IUID) implementation and inventory management. DOD manages more than 4 million secondary items and had inventory worth $95.6B as of September 2010. The Pentagon aims to lower its on-order excess inventory to 6% of obligated on-order dollars by the end of FY14 and 4% in FY16.
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• The Philippines, whose appeal for international arbitration of territorial disputes with China has been rejected by Chinese authorities, wants to develop a “minimum credible defense posture”, gets closer to the US.

• Rory Medcalf from the Lowy Institute for International Policy gives his Australian perspective on US rebalancing toward Asia [PDF]:

”[I]t’s not only or principally China’s navy that been involved in incidents at sea, but in fact more often Chinese civilian and paramilitary agencies, whether they are fisheries, the oceanic administration, or any number of auxiliary actors. In some ways, confrontation with these groups can be more dangerous because civilian agencies probably have less discipline regarding rules of engagement than their military counterparts.”

• The latest DoD Report on progress toward security and stability in Afghanistan [PDF] is out:
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Tejas LCA

India’s Light Combat Aircraft program is meant to boost its aviation industry, but it must also solve a pressing military problem. The IAF’s fighter strength has been declining as the MiG-21s that form the largest component of its fleet are lost in crashes, or retired due to age and wear. India’s other Cold War vintage aircraft will face similar problems in the near future.

In response, some MiG-21s have been modernized to MiG-21 ‘Bison’ configuration, and other current fighter types are undergoing modernization programs of their own. The IAF’s fading hope is that India can maintain their fighter numbers until the multi-billion dollar 126+ plane MMRCA sale delivers replacements. Which still leaves India without an affordable overall solution. MMRCA can replace some of India’s mid-range fighters, but what about the MiG-21s? The MiG-21bis program adds years of life to those airframes, but that extended lifespan is still quite finite. By 2020, they’re likely to be gone.

That’s why India’s own Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) project is so important to the Indian Air Force’s future prospects, and why India’s rigid domestic-only policies are gradually being relaxed, in order to field an operational and competitive aircraft. Even with that help, however, the program’s delays are a growing problem for India. Beyond India, the west’s near-abandonment of the global lightweight fighter market means that choices made in the LCA’s design will also affect its export potential. Which, in turn, feeds back into the overall program’s lifetime costs and viability…

• LCA Tejas: India’s Lightweight Fighter [updated]
  • Radar Love: Weapons & Fire Control
  • Engines & Alternatives
  • In the Navy… Naval LCA
• LCA Tejas: Program, Prospects, and Future [updated]
  • Industrial Team
  • Future Prospects
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Appendix A: DID Analysis & Op/Ed (2006)
• Appendix B: The Kaveri Engine: Keystone, or Killer?
• Appendix C: Additional Readings & Sources
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• Here are the PPT slides from the Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle (AMPV) Industry Day held by the US Army last week. The Defense Acquisition Board is expected to follow up on the future of this tentative MDAP by the end of the current fiscal year. There’s potentially about 3,000 new vehicles at stake at an Average Unit Manufacturing Cost in the $1M-$1.7M range with production starting between FY15 and FY17.

• The latest Aircraft Survivability [PDF] examines past and present live fire testing programs, as well as their current application to the CH-53K acquisition program.

• Northrop Grumman’s CEO Wes Bush would like Congress to ease restrictions on drone exports.
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Swiss F-5Es

The F-5E/F Tiger II was a follow-on upgrade to the wildly successful F-5 Freedom Fighter, a low-budget aircraft designed to capture the lower tier of the non-Soviet global fighter market in the 1960s and 1970s. A number of countries still operate F-5s, but the airframes are very old. While F-5 owners like Brazil, Chile, Thailand, et. al. have opted for comprehensive refurbishment and upgrades, Switzerland is looking to replace 3 of its 5 Tiger II squadrons with new aircraft under its Tiger-Teilersatz TTE program. The new fighters will partner with the 3 squadrons of upgraded F/A-18C/D Hornets that make up the rest of its fighter fleet.

An initial evaluation RFP was issued to 4 contenders, but Boeing’s withdrawal narrowed the selection to Sweden’s Gripen, France’s Rafale, or EADS’ Eurofighter Typhoon. A 2010 suspension of the competition was followed by a measured revival, thanks to the latest budgets – and now, by a provisional winner. No matter who won, though, left-wing opponents of Switzerland’s military would be working hard to derail the purchase. It’s likely to face a national referendum, just like the 1993 F/A-18 Hornet sale. After the current controversy over fighter evaluations runs its course…

• The Swiss Competition: Rationale and Process
• The Competitors
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
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Gripen & S-1000/S340

It’s a small, agile fighter that can take off and land on highways, while carrying the latest technologies and weapons. It does very well against NATO’s best aircraft in exercises, comes with a reasonable price tag, and is built for low lifetime operating costs. Unfortunately, in a world where people often buy your weapons because they want you to be their friend, the cachet of having Sweden in your corner isn’t quite what it used to be when their sailors wore those cool horned helmets. As a result, the JAS-39 Gripen is an excellent, reasonably-priced fighter yet it has been struggling for traction in the global marketplace.

A recent sale to Thailand has expanded Saab’s horizons somewhat, as the Gripen beat out the SU-30s favored by the previous Thai government. Lockheed Martin’s F-16 had been considered the leading contender to replace the RTAF’s 15-25 aging F-5B/Es, given Thailand’s extensive history with that aircraft. Other candidates included Russia’s MiG-29, and France’s Rafale. Saab had a very competitive offering on cost and performance, but in order to win, they had to throw in a very significant “something extra”: their Saab 340-AEW AWACS aircraft.

• The Thai AF and the Program
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Apendix A – Wild Card: Thailand’s Political Situation (October 2007)
• Appendix B – Additional Readings
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