F-35A #AA-1
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America’s Congressional Government Accountability Office (GAO) has been conducting annual reviews of the F-35 A/B/C Joint Strike Fighter program for several years, analyzing everything from program approach to the wisdom of the program’s dual-source structure for the fighters’ engines. The GAO has a long-standing disagreement with the program over timing, and especially the decision to begin low-rate initial production before testing is complete in 2013. It has also backed the dual-source engine program as more expensive in the short run, but likely to save money in the long run; that backing has helped secure the votes in Congress to reinstate the dual-source approach for 2 years running.

In a sense, therefore, the most recent March 11/08 report and testimony could be seen as the running continuation of earlier disagreements. The report also contains summaries of program progress to date, however, and the warnings contained in its high level assessments are likely to have ripple effects in the USA and abroad…

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KC-767: In the dark?
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Our FOCUS Article “The USAF’s KC-X Aerial Tanker RFP” has covered the lead-up to Boeing’s protest, in the wake of the Airbus/NGC win. Today, Boeing issued a release that discussed its claims in the coming GAO protest. Boeing claims that the USAF:

Arbitrarily discounted the KC-767’s strengths, compromising on the ability to refuel a wider range of aircraft such as the V-22 and on “the survivability of the tanker during the most dangerous missions.”

DID has asked Boeing for clarification re: which aircraft were left out, and what factors would allow the KC-767 to refuel them where the A330 MRTT could not. We have also requested elaboration on what would make the KC-767 more survivable, given that both aircraft would be equipped with the same defensive systems. The release continues…

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KC-X contenders
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As the $35 billion KC-45 tanker purchase flies into the teeth of Washington’s political battles, the Lexington Institute think-tank discusses the relative ratings of each contestant in the USAF’s aerial tanker competition. This is a bit unusual, as even Boeing has yet to hear the official debrief – a fact that has them somewhat upset. DID would not normally consider a report of this nature credible, but the think-tank has a wide range of contacts in Washington, and has been focusing on this deal for some time. Their broad assessment also mirrors commenets made by Sen Richard Shelby [R-AL], so it is possible – but not certain – that their report is correct.

Lexington defense analyst Loren Thompson contends that the Airbus/Northrop Grumman proposal would be able to deliver 49 operational tankers by 2013, whereas Boeing would have been able to deliver just 19 aircraft within that timeframe. That’s an interesting calculation whose basis DID would be interested in viewing, but public access may be an issue as it was attributed to USAF reviewers. Beyond that, Thompson concludes that Boeing lost out on 4 of 5 key measures, and tied on the 5th. Of course, sharp-eyed DID readers will recall that they were 9 Key Performance Parameters listed in the RFP…

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KC-30 Concept
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The $35 billion KC-45 aerial tanker deal has attracted a lot of attention and commentary lately, as one might expect. It has also attracted a lot of lobbying dollars – again, as one might expect. While the Pentagon hopes it can keep a lid on the program’s planned costs, it’s an absolute certainty that the lobbying bill will grow quite a bit before all is said and done.

Taxpayers for Common Sense, who built that useful Congressional earmark database, offers some figures re: lobbying monies paid to date – and DID looks at the message in terms of the political system, and the industry…

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KC-X options
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In January 2007, the big question was whether there would be a competition for the USA’s KC-X aerial tanker RFP, which will cover 175 production aircraft and 4 test platforms. The cost for this first phase alone is likely to reach $35+ billion, but the USAF believes that adding new plane types to America’s 40-50 year old aerial tanker fleet is its #1 priority, lest unpredictable age or fatigue issues like the ones its F-15A-D fleet is experiencing ground its aerial tankers – and with them, a substantial slice of the USA’s total airpower.

Boeing’s KC-767 Advanced Tanker was matched up against Airbus’ larger A330 MRTT/KC-30 for this competition. Each has a consortium, and each had advantages. After all the studies, the lobbying, and the proposal refinements, however, the USAF has picked a winner on Feb 29/08.

The A330 MRTT/ KC-30B from Northrop Grumman and EADS Airbus will now become the USAF’s next aerial tanker – if the USAF can make its decision stick…

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The current roster
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In “Retired RAAF Vice-Marshal: Abandon F-35, Buy F-22s (updated),” DID covered the controversy over the F-35A Lightning II’s suitability for Australia’s strategic needs, amidst a flurry of criticism from opposition party critics, the media, and even retired military officials. Australia’s Liberal Party government under Prime Minister John Howard went ahead and signed the F-35 Production MoU in November 2006, which doesn’t commit them to buy the aircraft just yet. Then it went ahead and submitted a USD $3.1+ billion order without a competition process for 24 Super Hornets, in order to address Australia’s air capability gap until the F-35As arrive.

In November 2007, Australia elected the Labor Party to government, though the Liberal Party still holds a balance of power in the Senate. Now, the rumblings of opposition have turned into a formal review – and everything appears to be up for grabs, including the F/A-18F contract, Australia’s F-35 buy, and a potential request for an export version of the F-22 Raptor. The review will be conducted in two stages….

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F-15E and F-22A
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Northrop Grumman recently announced that tests aboard a company BAC 1-11 test aircraft have successfully demonstrated the AN/APG-77v1 Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar’s ability to generate high-resolution, in-flight synthetic aperture radar (SAR) ground maps and moving target tracking. The test flights are the first phase of a planned multi-year contract with Boeing to add SAR capability to the existing fleet of F-22A Raptor stealth fighters, and incorporate them into new production aircraft. SAR capabilities can already be found in most multi-role fighter radars, and current image resolutions for aircraft like advanced F-15E Strike Eagles, F/A-18E/F Hornet Block IIs, et. al. are under 1 meter.

No details have been released, but the APG-77 can be expected to demonstrate similar performance, along with “agile beam” technology that makes it very hard to trace the origins of its radar scans. This is very different from conventional radars, which have been described as being akin to turning on a flashlight in a dark warehouse – enemies can see you long before you see them.

Directly identifying and targeting enemy ground defenses and mobile forces using its AESA radar will expand the Raptor’s offensive and defensive capabilities. On the offensive end, they make it possible for the F-22s to target ground installations and moving targets on the fly, in response to events during a mission. On the defensive end, the addition of SAR/GTMI lets the radar provide complete coverage of ground threats as well as aerial threats. While the aircraft’s electronic intercept capabilities and ability to share information from other military assets via Link 16, the new AESA Radar Common Data Link et. al. already provided some capabilities in this regard, the addition of high-resolution, agile-beam active radar scans adds an important piece to the puzzle. Northrop Grumman release.

India is planning a $1.5 billion upgrade for its 30 military airports and their air traffic control systems, and reportedly issued a request for bids in January. According to India Defence, invited bidders to Phase 1 included: France’s Thales, the U.S.’s Lockheed Martin, Germany’s Siemens, Italy’s Selex, Britain’s Terma. Indian firms Tata Power and Mumbai-based NELCO were also invited.

Phase 1 will include the supply, installation, testing and integration of equipment subsystems at airfields that include Adampur, AFA, Agra, Ambala, Bagdogra, Bareilly, Bhatinda, Bhuj, Bidar, Chabua, Chandigarh, Gorakhpur, Gwalior, Halwara, Hasimara, Hindon, Jaisalmer, Jamnagar, Jodhpur, Jorhat, KKD, Nal, Naliya, Pathankot, Pune, Sirsa, Suratgarh, Tezpur, Uttarlai and Yelahanka. India Defence’s “US$ 1.5 Billion Upgrades For 30 Indian Air Force Military Bases” has further details re: the required components and other specifications.

The usual “30% industrial offsets” rule applies to foreign bidders, of course. Which makes Boeing’s Feb 14/08 announcement re: its $500 million joint venture with Tata Industries for “defense-related aerospace component work” all the more interesting. That agreement could also apply toward required offsets from other contracts, of course, most notably India’s $10+ billion MMRCA fighter competition.

On Feb 7/08, the USA’s Congressional “Government Accountability Office” auditors released report #GAO-08-298, “DOD’s Practices and Processes for Multiyear Procurement Should Be Improved.” Multi-year procurements are used for a number of key projects, including the F-22A Raptor fighter, H-60 helicopters, and more. Official reports have cited it as a helpful factor in a number of past programs, which has kept costs down by facilitating bulk buys, plant investments, timely hiring and training, greater employment stability and hence better learning curves, et. al.

Does it always work that way? No. The GAO report examined the multi-year programs for the C-17A Globemaster III heavy transport, F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet fighter, AH-64 Apache Longbow attack helicopter, F-22A fighter, and V-22 tilt-rotor. From the GAO’s report abstract:

“Although the law has clear requirements for stable, low risk programs with realistic cost and savings estimates, lack of guidance and a rigorous process is not achieving this. It is difficult to precisely determine the impact of multiyear contracting on procurement costs. GAO studies of three recent MYPs identified unit cost growth ranging from 10 to 30 percent compared to original estimates, due to changes in labor and material costs, requirements and funding, and other factors. In some cases, actual MYP costs were higher than estimates for annual contracts. Although annual contracts also have unit cost growth, it is arguably more problematic for MYP’s because of the up-front investments and the government’s exposure to risk over multiple years. MYP savings were on average higher before changes in law called for “substantial savings” rather than a specific quantitative standard. Other factors—lower quantities of modern systems procured, stricter cancellation liability allowances, and contraction in the defense industrial base—may have also impacted savings by lessening opportunities for more efficient purchases, a key attribute of MYPs. DOD does not track multiyear results against original expectations and makes little effort to validate if actual savings were achieved. GAO’s case studies indicate that evaluating actual MYP results provides valuable information on the veracity of original estimates in the justification packages, the impacts on costs and risks from internal and external events, and lessons learned that can be used to improve future multiyear candidates and savings opportunities.”

CH-47F, Ft. Irwin
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On February 1/08, the Pentagon’s DefenseLINK announced “a large firm-fixed price contract [for 10] CH-47F new build production helicopters.” This new variant of the CH-47 Chinook incorporates a slew of improvements, and was declared combat-ready in August 2007. Work will be performed in Philadelphia, PA and is expected to be complete by Dec 31/12. One bid was solicited on Dec 31/03, and 1 bid was received by the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command in Redstone Arsenal, AL (W58RGZ-04-C-0012).

Given that the Pentagon is required by law to state dollar amounts for awards over $5 million, however, the breaking of those rules for this contract was deeply puzzling. Fortunately, the US Army has now informed DID that this is a $280.5 million contract; DefenseLINK should post the amount soon. A Feb 27/08 Boeing release gives the same dollar figure, but notes 11 helicopters. DID has also updated our CH-47F FOCUS article.

Originally posted on Feb 5/08.