CH-53K concept
c. Sikorsky

The U.S. Marines have a problem. They rely on their CH-53E Super Stallion medium-heavy lift helicopters to move troops, vehicles, and supplies off of their ships. But the helicopters are wearing out. Fast. The pace demanded by the Global War on Terror is relentless, and usage rates are 3 times normal. Attrition is taking its toll. Over the past few years, CH-53s have been recalled from “boneyard” storage at Davis-Monthan AFB in Tucson, AZ, in order to maintain fleet numbers in the face of recent losses and forced retirements. Now, there are no flyable spares left.

Enter the Heavy Lift Replacement (HLR) program, also known as the CH-53X. It was given the formal designation CH-53K in April 2006, and aims to offer notable performance improvements in a similar-looking package. The question is whether its service entry delay to 2018 will come too late to offset a serious decline in Marine aviation:

• The HLR Program Lifts Off
• The CH-53X / CH-53K
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
• Appendix A: Flying Between Scylla and Charbydis: Navigating The Political Shoals (April 2006)
• Appendix B: Interesting Ideas: The CH-53X Skycrane Concept

A400M rollout, Seville

Airbus’ A400M is a EUR 20+ billion program that aims to repeat Airbus’ civilian successes in the full size military transport market. A series of smart design decisions were made around capacity (35-37 tonnes/ 38-40 US tons, large enough for survivable armored vehicles), extensive use of modern materials, multi-role capability as a refueling tanker, and a multinational industrial program; all of which leave the aircraft well positioned to take overall market share from Lockheed Martin’s C-130 Hercules. If the USA’s C-17 is allowed to go out of production, the A400M would also have a strong position in the strategic transport market, with only Russian AN-70, IL-76 and AN-124 aircraft as competition. To date, 174 orders have been placed by Germany (now 53 + 7 options), France (50), Spain (27), Britain (now 22), Turkey (10), South Africa (8), Belgium (7), Malaysia (4), and Luxembourg (1). Chile has expressed an unfinalized interest in 3 planes, but is now likely to buy Brazilian KC-390s instead.

EADS’ biggest issue, by far, has been funding for a project that is more than EUR 7 billion over budget. The next biggest issue is timing, as A400M delivery penalties and Lockheed Martin’s strong push for its serving C-130J Super Hercules cast a pall over the A400M’s potential future. The entire project was under moratorium for over a year as all parties decided what to do, but it’s now moving forward again. This DID Spotlight article covers the latest developments, as the A400M project moves into production.

• The A400M Program
  • History
  • Tech Specs and Issues
• The A400M Program: Dilemmas & a Deal
• Updates & Key Events, 2009-Present [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
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• Hawker Beechcraft filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to restructure its debt.

• CACI’s Q3 FY 2012 results: $928M revenue (+1.6%), $2.04B funded backlog (+4.7%).

• The GAO’s latest reports on DoD logistics look at Item Unique Identification (IUID) implementation and inventory management. DOD manages more than 4 million secondary items and had inventory worth $95.6B as of September 2010. The Pentagon aims to lower its on-order excess inventory to 6% of obligated on-order dollars by the end of FY14 and 4% in FY16.
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Bridge to the future?

In its 2009 White Paper, Australia’s Department of Defence and Labor Party government looked at the progress being made in anti-shipping surveillance-strike complexes, and the need to defend large sea lanes, and dropped something of a surprise. They proposed increasing Australia’s submarine fleet to 12 boats by 2030-2040, all of which would be successors to Australia’s a current fleet of advanced Collins class submarines.

The Collins class was designed with the strong cooperation of ThyssenKrupp’s Swedish Kockums subsidiary, and built in Australia by state-owned ASC. The class has encountered a number of issues, including significant difficulties with its combat systems, issues with acoustic signature, major cost growth to A$ 5+ billion, and schedule slippage. Worse still, reports indicated that the RAN can only staff 2 of its 6 submarines put a huge crimp in the fleet’s usefulness. High-level attention led to 29 recommendations aimed at improving conditions and staffing on Australia’s submarines, and those are now being implemented. Their long term effect remains to be seen. So, too, does the nature of Australia’s SEA 1000 future submarine project – and its eventual cost:

• Program Structure & Timeline [NEW]
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
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• Chinese Rear Adm. Zhang Zhaozhong said that Zumwalt ships are vulnerable to being zerged. Well, he didn’t make an actual reference to videogame swarming aliens, but that’s the gist of his position.
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Tejas LCA

India’s Light Combat Aircraft program is meant to boost its aviation industry, but it must also solve a pressing military problem. The IAF’s fighter strength has been declining as the MiG-21s that form the largest component of its fleet are lost in crashes, or retired due to age and wear. India’s other Cold War vintage aircraft will face similar problems in the near future.

In response, some MiG-21s have been modernized to MiG-21 ‘Bison’ configuration, and other current fighter types are undergoing modernization programs of their own. The IAF’s fading hope is that India can maintain their fighter numbers until the multi-billion dollar 126+ plane MMRCA sale delivers replacements. Which still leaves India without an affordable overall solution. MMRCA can replace some of India’s mid-range fighters, but what about the MiG-21s? The MiG-21bis program adds years of life to those airframes, but that extended lifespan is still quite finite. By 2020, they’re likely to be gone.

That’s why India’s own Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) project is so important to the Indian Air Force’s future prospects, and why India’s rigid domestic-only policies are gradually being relaxed, in order to field an operational and competitive aircraft. Even with that help, however, the program’s delays are a growing problem for India. Beyond India, the west’s near-abandonment of the global lightweight fighter market means that choices made in the LCA’s design will also affect its export potential. Which, in turn, feeds back into the overall program’s lifetime costs and viability…

• LCA Tejas: India’s Lightweight Fighter [updated]
  • Radar Love: Weapons & Fire Control
  • Engines & Alternatives
  • In the Navy… Naval LCA
• LCA Tejas: Program, Prospects, and Future [updated]
  • Industrial Team
  • Future Prospects
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Appendix A: DID Analysis & Op/Ed (2006)
• Appendix B: The Kaveri Engine: Keystone, or Killer?
• Appendix C: Additional Readings & Sources
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Swiss F-5Es

The F-5E/F Tiger II was a follow-on upgrade to the wildly successful F-5 Freedom Fighter, a low-budget aircraft designed to capture the lower tier of the non-Soviet global fighter market in the 1960s and 1970s. A number of countries still operate F-5s, but the airframes are very old. While F-5 owners like Brazil, Chile, Thailand, et. al. have opted for comprehensive refurbishment and upgrades, Switzerland is looking to replace 3 of its 5 Tiger II squadrons with new aircraft under its Tiger-Teilersatz TTE program. The new fighters will partner with the 3 squadrons of upgraded F/A-18C/D Hornets that make up the rest of its fighter fleet.

An initial evaluation RFP was issued to 4 contenders, but Boeing’s withdrawal narrowed the selection to Sweden’s Gripen, France’s Rafale, or EADS’ Eurofighter Typhoon. A 2010 suspension of the competition was followed by a measured revival, thanks to the latest budgets – and now, by a provisional winner. No matter who won, though, left-wing opponents of Switzerland’s military would be working hard to derail the purchase. It’s likely to face a national referendum, just like the 1993 F/A-18 Hornet sale. After the current controversy over fighter evaluations runs its course…

• The Swiss Competition: Rationale and Process
• The Competitors
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
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• The Washington Times looks into where base closures may happen, if a 6th BRAC is indeed going to be allowed by Congress. But so far the House is not interested. Cynics may allow themselves to think that the Administration’s inclusion of a BRAC round during an election year was a red herring that they were ready to give up from the get-go.

• Meanwhile Joint Base Lewis-McChord will see the reactivation of the 7th Infantry Division.

• The National Defense University’s INSS reviews [PDF] the state of French military capabilities and explains France’s closer defense relationship with Great Britain after being disappointed by cooperation efforts with Germany that never met their stated ambition.
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Buoy oh buoy…

The January 2010 failure of a generator aboard HMAS Farncomb was just the latest in a long history of problems faced by its fleet of 6 Collins Class diesel-electric submarines – which have sometimes been reduced to just 1 operational vessel. That readiness issue presents an immediate financial headache for Australia’s government, and adds a longer-term challenge to the centerpiece of Australia’s future naval force.

With just 6 submarines in its fleet, Australia’s current deployment set-up leaves little room for error. Even a normal setup of 2 in maintenance, 2 for training but available if needed, and 2 on operations makes for a thin line, given Australia’s long coastline and sea lanes. Almost 15 years after the first Collins Class boat was delivered, they are still short of this goal. When crewing problems are added to the mechanical issues, the failings of its current fleet are creating sharp questions about the Australia’s 2009 White Paper plan to build 12 new diesel-electric fast attack submarines, as the future centerpiece of the 2030 Australian Navy.

• A Cursed Class?
• Updates and Developments [updated]
• Additional Readings
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RAFO F-16Cs w. CFTs

Oman is located on the eastern Arabian peninsula next to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and across from Persia. It remains a very strategic country, controlling the Strait of Hormuz’ western bank, and providing an overwatch position for both the entrance to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean near Africa. The Royal Air Force of Oman (al-Quwwat al-Jawwiya al-Sultanat Oman) currently flies 12 F-16 Block 50 fighters: 8 F-16Cs and 4 F-16Ds, whose delivery began in 2005. They complement the RAFO’s 18 Jaguar strike aircraft, and 11 single-seat subsonic Hawk 203 light fighters. Sultan Qaboos’ air force is looking to replace its aging Jaguars, and has made inquiries about buying 4+ generation fighters like Eurofighters or even JAS-39 Gripens for this purpose.

A formal DSCA request for 18 more F-16s raised the possibility of a different approach, and that has now become a firm contract. But BAE has subsequently received an RFP for its Eurofighter, too…

• The Sultanate of Oman’s History, and its Fighter Fleet
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
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