Scratch one flag…
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In April 2005, South Africa’s Public Enterprises Minister Alec Erwin expected the cost of the SAAF’s 8 planned Airbus A400M medium-heavy military transport aircraft to be EUR 830 million. That converted to R 6.5 billion at those exchange rates, or about $177.75 million per plane in American dollars. South Africa reportedly intended to take delivery of 8 of the A400Ms from 2010-2014, with a further 6 on option. Ordering those additional 6 aircraft would reportedly have pushed the total contract value to EUR $1.5 billion, or about R11.9 billion at those exchange rates. When the deal was signed in December 2006, the price for 8 aircraft and initial fielding had risen to R 17.646 billion, or almost $2.5 billion: about $308 million per plane.

Meanwhile, South Africa bit the bullet and decided to upgrade its 8-9 aged C-130B Hercules planes. The first SAAF C-130Bs were delivered in 1963, and badly needed additional upgrades and refurbishment.

Subsequent delays to the A400M program were set to either extend the C-130Bs’ service, or force reliance on charters, even as the A400M’s likely costs grew. That SAAF aerial uncertainty has only grown, now that South Africa has become the first country to pull out of the A400M program…

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French Mirage F1s
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Morocco’s combat air force currently flies 2 squadrons of old F-5s, and 2 squadrons of only slightly newer Mirage F1s; T-37 light jets serve as key transitional trainers. Their neighbor and rival Algeria flies MiG-23s of similar vintage, but the Force Aerienne Algerienne also flies SU-24 Fencer and SU-25 Frogfoot strike aircraft, even more modern and capable MiG-29s, and is set to receive multi-role SU-30MKs as part of a multi-billion dollar weapons deal with Russia.

Morocco can’t beat that array. Instead, they’re looking for replacement aircraft that will prevent complete overmatch, and provide a measure of security. Initially, they looked to France. France’s Rafale is part of a set of European 4+ generation fighters that were developed and fielded during the 1990s-early 21st century, with the aim of surpassing existing offerings among America’s “teen series” fighters, as well as Russia’s Mig-29 Fulcrum and SU-27/30 Flanker family. “Dogfight at the Casbah: Rafale vs. F-16” discussed the French sales slip-ups that cost Dassault its first export order for the 4+ generation fighter. That outcome is now official.

Just to make things worse, the final multi-billion dollar deal involves new-build F-16s, at a price comparable to the rumored figures for the Rafale. Not to mention an accompanying American deal to replace Morocco’s T-37 trainer fleet with T-6Cs, and contracts for air-launched weapons, targeting pods, and C-27J short-haul transports. The latest development includes a DSCA request for CH-47D helicopters…

• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Why The F-16? DID Analysis – Dec. 2007
• Additional Readings
  
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Malaysian SU-30MKM
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On May 24/07, a rollout and demonstration ceremony was held for the first 2 Su-30MKM fighters for the Royal Malaysan Airforce (RMAF) at Russia’s Irkutsk Aviation plant. Malaysia flies the F/A-18D Hornet, and was offered Boeing’s F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, but chose the SU-30MKM instead. Their fighter fleet will now consist of R/F-5E/F Tiger IIs (to be phased out), F/A-18D Hornets, MiG-29 Fulcrums (until 2010), and SU-30MKMs. The results from their internal training air combat exercises would be interesting, to say the least.

The original $900 million contract was signed with Irkut Corp. in August 2003, and involves 18 SU-30MKMs. Canards, stabilizers and fins will be manufactured by India’s HAL Nasik under a $25-30 million value subcontract. According to the contracts in place, Irkut was to deliver all aircraft by the end of 2008, but that hasn’t happened yet. Delivery of the final batch is ongoing.

The SU-30MKM is an advanced variant, whose performance involves considerable improvements over SU-30MK/MKK fighters. Malaysia also hopes its maintenance will be an improvement over the MiG-29Ns it has to phase out, as a possible new fighter competition brews…

• The SU-30MKM
• The Malaysia Deal: Offsets & Updates [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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A129 ATAK
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Turkey has been looking to modernize its attack helicopter fleet since the mid-1990s, but the process has mostly served as an object lesson in how not to buy defense equipment. DID has covered difficulties with this competition before; after numerous snafus, technology transfer and production issues, and canceled competitions, all 3 invited American manufacturers had abandoned the competition entirely.

Even the most recent “final” round seemed imperiled, following reports of the Turkish military’s deep dissatisfaction with the choices; nevertheless, the competition survived long enough to pick a “winner”: an updated version of its A129. Now, signed industrial arrangements contracts with AugustaWestland allow the 12-year program to move forward at last. But Turkey didn’t just buy helicopters – they bought the model, lock, stock, and rotor. The “T-129” has now had its first flight, even as the Turkish military prepares an interim attack helicopter buy…

• The Finalists
• The Winner
• Contracts & Key Events
• Appendix A: “I Coulda Been A Contenda…”
• Additional Readings and Sources
  
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Italian FREMM
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According to London’s Asharq Al-Awsat, Algeria has shifted negotiations for 6 FREMM multirole frigates from France’s DCNS to Italy’s Fincantieri, while negotiating a contract with AgustaWestland for about 100 helicopters. The paper reports that Algeria will receive the frigates in 2011:

”...equipped with American anti-submarine missiles following a deal with Italy worth 4 billion euros. The deal replaces a similar agreement with France…. Algeria concluded another deal with Italy to sell 100 helicopters.”

Or are there deals at all? The latest report comes from UPI, which says the frigate order is now an international competition…

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FAE: past & present
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Ecuador’s FAE currently operates a variety of fighter aircraft. 14 Israeli Kfirs, (12 + 2 two-seat trainers) upgraded to the C10/CE standard, 12 upgraded French Mirage F1 fighters originally delivered in 1978-80, and about 20 A-37 Dragonflys form their fighter core, with about 7 Jaguar strike aircraft that are reportedly in storage and unfit to fly. The Kfirs will last for a little while, but the Jaguars, Dragonflys, and Mirage F1s need replacement.

A deal is reportedly in the works for up to 24 of Brazil’s Super Tucanos, which are replacing the A-37 with a variety of Latin American air forces. They can’t replace the Jaguars and F1s, however, which has triggered a search for replacements that can be bought on a small budget. After investigating a number of offers, a deal with South Africa is reportedly in the works. Meanwhile, Venezuela has stepped in with an offer of its own…

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BAE’s Hawk:
over the top
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The UK’s Serious Fraud Office (SFO) has spent the last 6 years chasing BAE systems over allegations that bribes were paid to secure foreign deals in a number of countries. Bribes are the least of the allegations involved in some international defense deals, and contract wins without inducements would be far more surprising in countries like Saudi Arabia, Tanzania, and South Africa. Nevertheless, the UK does have laws to prevent British firms from paying them.

An SFO investigation into the giant Saudi Al-Yamamah aircraft deal was killed in December 2006 on national security grounds, after the Saudis threatened to cut off anti-terrorism cooperation and intelligence sharing. The government’s decision was upheld by the British House of Lords, but the SFO continued to pursue other reports concerning Chile, the Czech Republic, Romania, South Africa, Tanzania, and Qatar.

BAE systems was reportedly been given about a month to plead guilty concerning its activities in 3 countries, or face formal charges. It declined, and now the British SFO seems determined to press a formal case…

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C-27J Spartan
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The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced Ghana’s official request for 4 C-27J light tactical transports, to be delivered with 10 Rolls Royce AE-2100 engines (8 + 2 spares), 4 of BAE’s AN/ALE-47 Countermeasures Dispensing Systems, 4 AN/ARC-210 VHF/UHF Multimode Integrated Communication Systems without COMSEC (COMmunications SECurity; encryption), 4 of Raytheon’s AN/APX-119 Identification Friend or Foe Digital Transponders with mode 1,2,3a, 3c; plus commercial GPS navigation, a VIP module and observation windows, spare and repair parts, support and test equipment, publications and technical documentation, personnel training and training equipment, and U.S. Government and contractor engineering, technical and logistics support.

The estimated cost is $680 million, but a DSCA request is not a contract. If Congress does not block the sale within 30 days, negotiations may begin.

Ghana is a West African country located on the Gulf of Guinea. Its parliament was chosen to host President Obama’s 2009 Africa speech, and the DSCA describes the country and the sale as…

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Djibouti & region
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Djibouti is an important base for western navies, the French Foreign Legion, and the US Marines. It sits in a very strategic location, at the entrance to the Red Sea and astride the passage from the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal. Maintaining and operating that base takes work, of course. The US Navy’s Seabees have done excellent work there, and the base is being used as a testing ground for containerized renewable power options.

In the modern era, however, military construction teams are not the only ones involved in keeping the base running. Contractors are also involved. The base operations services contract was competitively procured via the NAVFAC e-solicitation website, with 6 proposals received by the Naval Facilities Engineering Command, Europe and Southwest Asia in Naples, Italy (N33191-07-D-0207). The winner was…

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KC-390 refuels AMXs
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Global competition in the 20-ton air transport segment continues to intensify, with Brazil’s launch of its KC-390 program. Embraer figures reportedly place the global C-130 replacement market at around 700 aircraft. In response, it will develop a jet-powered rival to compete with Lockheed Martin’s C-130J, the larger Airbus A400M, Russia’s AN-12 and its Chinese copy the Yunshu-8, and the bi-national Irkut/HAL MRTA project. Smaller aircraft like the EADS-CASA C-295M and Alenia C-27J may also represent indirect competition.

Brazil’s aerospace industry has made impressive global gains in the civilian business and regional jet segments, and in the military market for primary trainer and counterinsurgency aircraft. Slumping civilian demand recently led to layoffs, but rising Brazilian defense budgets give the government a lever to inject funds into the company, while completing a strategic project that has been under consideration for a couple of years.

Embraer will now seek to extend its efforts and markets by crafting a jet-powered medium transport with a cargo capacity around 20 tons, that can be refueled in the air, and can provide refueling services to other aircraft by adding dedicated pods. Thanks to a deal with France, the KC-390 looks set to become a multinational effort…

• KC-390 Program and Structure
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings: Competitors
  
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