• US Secretary of the Air Force Michael Donley and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz released a short whitepaper [PDF] outlining its priorities and choices within forthcoming budget constraints. It states: “More than 280 aircraft have been identified [...] for elimination [...] over the next five years. This includes 123 fighters (102 A-10s and 21 older F-16s), 133 mobility aircraft (27 C-5As, 65 C-130s, 20 KC-135s, and 21 C-27s), and 30 select ISR systems (18 RQ-4 Block 30s, 11 RC-26s, and one E-8 damaged beyond repair)”

• The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission had hearings last week on what China’s quest for global resources – water, fossil fuel, mineral, fish – means for the United States. Transcripts | Video.

• Andrew Davies from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) thinks it is unlikely that the Australian Defence Force (ADF) will make a big rebasing effort to the country’s north. ASPI also released an economic and strategic analysis [PDF] pondering whether Australia should build warships.

• The Canadian Forces updated their casualty statistics covering their presence in Afghanistan from April 2002 to December 31, 2011.

• The US House Committee on Foreign Affairs will have its second hearing on “Export Controls, Arms Sales, and Reform: Balancing U.S. Interests” next Tuesday, Feb. 7, 10am. Marion Blakey, President & CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) and Mikel Williams, CEO if DDi, will testify. The ADS trade association in the UK is concerned about the potential impact of ITAR changes on its members.

• US $1.3B military aid to Egypt is in jeopardy.

• India’s DRDO: We liked the Bollywood movie ‘3 Idiots’ so much, we bought its Netra UAV...

• Skills you didn’t know you needed as an helicopter maintenance engineer: black widow live capture.

South African JAS-39D
c. Gripen International

Czech turmoil; Swiss politics; South Korea offer?; Hungary extends lease; Sweden looking at major upgrades; Article updates; India closed? (Jan 31/12)

As a neutral country with a long history of providing for its own defense against all comers, Sweden also has a long tradition of building excellent high-performance fighters with a distinctive look. From the long-serving Saab-35 Draken (“Dragon,” 1955-2005) to the Mach 2, canard-winged Saab-37 Viggen (“Thunderbolt,” 1971-2005), Swedish fighters have stressed short-field launch from dispersed/improvised air fields, world-class performance, and leading-edge design. This record of consistent project success is nothing short of amazing, especially for a country whose population over this period has ranged from 7-9 million people.

This is DID’s FOCUS Article for background, news, and contract awards related to the JAS-39 Gripen (“Griffon”), a canard-winged successor to the Viggen and one of the world’s first 4+ generation fighters. Gripen remains the only lightweight 4+ generation fighter type in service, its performance and operational economics are both world-class, and it has become one of the most recognized fighter aircraft on the planet. Unfortunately for its builders, that recognition has come from its appearance in Saab and Volvo TV commercials, rather than from hoped-for levels of military export success. With its 4+ generation competitors clustered in the $60-120+ million range vs. the Gripen’s claimed $40-60 million, is there a light at the end of the tunnel for Sweden’s lightweight fighter?

• JAS-39: The Gripen Program
  • Saab’s Gripens
  • Partnerships & Production
  • Export Opportunities [updated]
• JAS-39NG: A Way Forward?
• JAS-39 Gripen: Major Events [updated]
• JAS-39 Gripen: Contracts & Awards
• Additional Readings & Sources
  Continue Reading… »

AIM-120C from F-22A
(click for test missile zoom)

SLAMRAAM updates; AIM-120D contract; AIM-120D testing & status; 2013 budget may be good news for AIM-120D. (Jan 26/12)

Raytheon’s AIM-120 Advanced, Medium-Range Air to Air Missile (AMRAAM) has become the world market leader for medium range air-to-air missiles, and is also beginning to make inroads within land-based defense systems. It was designed with the lessons of Vietnam in mind, and of local air combat exercises like ACEVAL and Red Flag. This DID FOCUS article covers successive generations of AMRAAM missiles, international contracts and key events from 2006 onward, and even some of its emerging competitors.

One of the key lessons learned from Vietnam was that a fighter would be likely to encounter multiple enemies, and would need to launch and guide several missiles at once in order to ensure its survival. This had not been possible with the AIM-7 Sparrow, a “semi-active radar homing” missile that required a constant radar lock on one target. To make matters worse, enemy fighters were capable of launching missiles of their own. Pilots who weren’t free to maneuver after launch would often be forced to “break lock,” or be killed – sometimes even by a short-range missile fired during the last phases of their enemy’s approach. Since fighters that could carry radar-guided missiles like the AIM-7 tended to be larger and more expensive, and the Soviets were known to have far more fighters overall, this was not a good trade…

• Some MRAAM History, and AMRAAM’s Design Approach
• AMRAAM: Versions & Derivatives [updated]
• AMRAAM’s International Competitors
• AMRAAM: Program [updated]
• AMRAAM: Contracts & Key Events, FY 2006-Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  Continue Reading… »

3BCT-101st, Iraq-
no Chavis turrets?

650 more independent suspension retrofit kits; Dash ISS does well, but MRV variant has some issues. (Jan 24/12)

Navistar subsidiary International Military and Government LLC (IMG) in, Warrenville, IL has won billions of dollars in MRAP program contracts, to produce several variants of its blast-resistant vehicles. The Category I MRUV vehicle’s role is similar to a Hummer’s, albeit with more carrying capacity and much more protection. That has become a staple for IMG’s entry, dubbed the “MaxxPro” by its manufacturer. Their collaboration with an Israeli firm who provides up-armored vehicles for the Marines successfully overcame lukewarm initial interest, but even successful survivors of Aberdeen’s tests where challenged to offer enough protection against the ERP class of land mines that began to appear in Iraq.

Nevertheless, the MRAP program became a production race – and Navistar did very well under those competitive terms. In the end the military’s desire for standardization of its fleets exerted something of a gravitation pull on the competition. A July 2007 order vaulted Navistar into 1st place for initial MRAP Program vehicles ordered. A position they kept…

• MRAP Competitors, Navistar Totals [updated]
• MaxxPro Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
• Appendix A: Appendix A: The MRAP Story, and the MaxxPro Story
• Appendix B: MPV or APC to Face EFPs? (June 2007)
  Continue Reading… »

KC-390 refuels AMXs

More supplier decisions. (Jan 19/12)

Global competition in the 20-ton air transport segment continues to intensify, with Brazil’s launch of its KC-390 program. Embraer figures reportedly place the global C-130 replacement market at around 700 aircraft. In response, it will develop a jet-powered rival to compete with Lockheed Martin’s C-130J, the larger Airbus A400M, Russia’s AN-12 and its Chinese copy the Yun-8/9, and the bi-national Irkut/HAL MRTA project. Smaller aircraft like the EADS-CASA C-295M, and Alenia’s C-27J, may also represent indirect competition.

Embraer is extending its efforts and markets by crafting a jet-powered medium transport with a cargo capacity of around 23 tons, that can be refueled in the air, and can provide refueling services to other aircraft by adding dedicated pods. The KC-390 has now become a multinational effort, and may be shaping up as the C-130’s most formidable future competitor…

• The KC-390: Program [updated]
• The KC-390: Aircraft
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings: Competitors
  Continue Reading… »

USMC RG-31,
IEDed in Iraq
(click to view story)

Cougar Ambulance verdict; RG-31 reps; FP factory gets non-MRAP work. (Jan 18/12)

General Dynamics is one of the biggest suppliers of land equipment to the US Army and Marines, alongside firms like BAE and Oshkosh. As IED land mines became an unmistakable trend in modern warfare, however, the company had nothing of its own to respond with. To fix that, they fell back on a focused partnership with BAE and the Canadian government, and created another limited partnership with newcomer Force Protection. Those kinds of partnerships can be preludes to an acquisition, and that was true in this case as well. In late 2011, the firm bought Force Protection, bringing all of its vehicles, technologies, and experience in house.

General Dynamics Land Systems is now a legitimate player in the global marketplace for blast-resistant vehicles. The long-term question involves competitiveness, as both the RG-31 (BAE) and Cougar (Force Protection) faded in the face of newer MRAP competitors. GDLS will reap maintenance and upgrade contracts for the RG-31s and Cougar in the US fleet, and consolidating accountability may strengthen their position if the Army decides to rationalize its MRAPs. That cash flow buys time; beyond, exports beckon. The Cougar family has a strong customer in Britain, where General Dynamics is supplanting BAE as a major land forces supplier, and it is used by several NATO and Middle Eastern countries. The Buffalo heavy mine-disposal vehicle has a unique niche, and offerings like the Ocelot and Jamma light patrol vehicles may yet pick up. Will it be enough?

• Experiences on the Front Lines
• The MRAP Trend, and GD’s Offerings
• USA MRAPs: The Broader Picture
• GD’s MRAP Contracts [updated]
• Additional Readings
  Continue Reading… »

• In line with pre-announcements made by his administration in past months, President Obama said yesterday he was directing the Pentagon to lower ground troop levels in favor of increasing special forces, cybersecurity and UAVs, alongside a shift in resources from Europe into Asia (video at the bottom of this entry). Even the New York Times notes that calls for a leaner, more technical military that stays away from messy, protracted land wars is not new, but reality may object. DoD released Defense Strategic Guidance [PDF] and had a follow-up roundtable with Carter and Flournoy. The backdrop is clearly the coming presidential election.

• Specifics on program impact will have to wait until the president submits his FY13 budget next month. On the DoD topline budget, Obama said: ”[S]ince 9/11, our defense budget grew at an extraordinary pace. Over the next 10 years, the growth in the defense budget will slow, but the fact of the matter is this: It will still grow [...] In fact, the defense budget will still be larger than it was toward the end of the Bush administration.” If sequestration is fully enacted, this may still turn out to be true, but probably only in nominal terms (of course future inflation rates, and actual budgets, remain a conjecture).

• One new tidbit: expressed support for a new stealth bomber.

• A couple reactions boiled down to soundbites: “budget-driven defense strategy”, “diagnosis without prescription”, “we cannot pick our enemies”, “less of the same”, “the devil lies in the details.”

• DID’s quick take comes as questions. First, a premise: a defining issue for the US and its allies in the “developed world” is the fiscal sustainability of a technical superiority that comes at a massive cost premium, while that technical edge is threatened by relatively cheap disruption if not interdiction – think USS Cole bombing or MRAP vs. IED relative costs. If that premise is accurate, how is a “do a little less, for a little less, but optimized” guidance addressing the core cost/benefit and cost asymmetry challenges? To make a business analogy, for after all this has a lot to do with industry and funding, if your new competitor floods the market with an offering that provides 70% of the value at 10% of the cost, can you as the incumbent settle for marginal optimization as your strategy? Is linear thinking viable against disruptive economic forces shaped by deep demographic trends?

• British Defence Minister Philip Hammond who met Leon Panetta later in the day wanted to be briefed on the future of the F-35.

• The US Air Force issued a temporary stop-work order for the recently-awarded Light Air Support contract but is “confident in the merits of its contract award decision and anticipates that the litigation [initiated by Hawker Beechcraft] will be quickly resolved.”

• The British Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee released a report on piracy off Somalia’s coast.

• Finland authorized shipping of the Patriot missiles it had blocked last month after it became clear they’re indeed a legitimate export from Germany to South Korea.
  Continue Reading… »

• After the cremated remains of at least 274 fallen US service-members, and 1,762 other unidentified body parts, were unceremoniously thrown into a county landfill as waste, Tom Ricks says that “either the Air Force Secretary, its Chief of Staff, or both” need to resign; “It’s not a colonel’s problem”. He makes a strong case. Meanwhile Congresswoman Renee Ellmers [R-NC] wants to legislate.

• The US House of Representatives approved the 2012 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) after the White House lifted its veto threat. The bill should now sail through the Senate and be made into law within the next few days. Which means focus will shift to FY13 and beyond. HASC Chairman Howard McKeon (R-CA) is introducing a bill as he had said he would to avoid sequester in 2013. The Senate is also on it, as per the video at the bottom of this entry. Also, representatives Mark Critz (D-PA-12) and Mo Brooks (R-AL-05) created last week a congressional caucus for Army Aviation (AAC).

• L-3 Communications bought for $210M in cash Kollmorgen Electro-Optical (KEO), a $160M/year unit of Danaher Corporation that employs about 550 people in Massachusetts and Italy. KEO will complement’s L-3s existing Sensor Systems division.

• Boeing and KAI deliver the 2nd E-737 AEW&C “Peace Eye” plane to South Korea’s air force.

• Boeing’s CONECT upgrade for the B-52H bomber is done flight testing. Now it’s up to the USAF to decide if they want to move forward.

• Alenia & EADS Cassidian sign an MoU to explore MALE UAV and UCAV co-operation, as the Obama administration waffles on selling armed UAVs. Talarion is mentioned explicitly, but anything they come up with will have to face the BAE/Dassault team (Mantis/Telemos), as well as potential offerings from Thales. Looks like Europe will have multiple UAV nodes, after all.

• Lockheed Martin announces that they have delivered the next-generation GPS-III’s Non Flight Satellite Testbed (GNST) to Denver, CO, where they’ve opened their new GPS-III manufacturing line.

• The US Navy’s Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command (SPAWAR) has delayed the release of Next Generation Enterprise Network (NGEN) RFP by several weeks – it was originally due for next week.

• Here’s a short primer on the various types of issuances from the Pentagon: Memorandums (DTMs), Instructions (DoDIs), Manuals (DoDMs), and Administrative Instructions (AIs). DTMs are effective for just 180 days. DoDOs establish or implement policy, and provide general procedures. Manuals implement or supplement policy stated in the two previous types of document. Finally AIs provide administrative guidance.

• Sweden has expanded its military exports to 60+ countries at a $2B+/year pace.

• Italy shared its stats on its participation in Libyan operations, adding to the metrics collected on this conflict.

• The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) offers an Indian perspective on China’s tentative presence in the Seychelles. (IDSA is funded by the Indian Ministry of Defence but functions autonomously.)

• In Australia, Kim Carr’s demotion from cabinet-level Minister of Innovation and Industry to (non-cabinet) Minister for Defence Materiel and Minister for Manufacturing as part of a larger reshuffle is getting some push-back both from within the left in power and from the right-wing opposition. Outgoing Jason Clare is promoted to Minister for Home Affairs.
  Continue Reading… »

French Mirage F1s

First new F-16s inbound; Contract for updated ECM. (Dec 5/11)

Morocco’s combat air force currently flies 2 squadrons of old F-5s, and 2 squadrons of only slightly newer Mirage F1s; T-37 light jets serve as key transitional trainers. Their neighbor and rival Algeria flies MiG-23s of similar vintage, but the Force Aérienne Algérienne also flies SU-24 Fencer and SU-25 Frogfoot strike aircraft, even more modern and capable MiG-29s, and is receiving multi-role SU-30MKs as part of a multi-billion dollar weapons deal with Russia.

Morocco can’t beat that array. Instead, they’re looking for replacement aircraft and upgrades that will prevent complete overmatch, and provide a measure of security. Initially, they looked to France, but key reversals have handed most of this modernization work to the United States…

• Slips & Shifts
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Why The F-16? DID Analysis – Dec. 2007
• Additional Readings [updated]
  Continue Reading… »

We’re wrapping up our 2012 reader survey tomorrow. If you haven’t given us your feedback yet this year, please consider doing so now. Thank you – DID.

• The Pentagon is considering updating Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement (DFARS) to incorporate a “proposal adequacy checklist” for proposals in response to solicitations that require submission of certified cost or pricing data. Comments should be sent to DoD in writing before January 31, 2012, to be considered in the formation of the final rule.

• Switzerland’s largest socialist party (SPS) passes a resolution saying that they’ll try to stop the deal for 22 Swedish JAS-39 Gripen fighters. We aren’t surprised, either.

• Photos of a Japanese ATD-X stealth fighter mock-up. Which seems to be re-using a Mitsubishi F1 canopy. Still waiting for cool transforming robots…

• Eurocopter subsidiary Australian Aerospace has delivered the final EC665 Tiger ARH scout/attack helicopter to Australia.

• The British government has hired a BAE-led team to give HMS Victory her biggest restoration since the 1805 Battle of Trafalgar.

• Defense contractors at a conference held by Credit Suisse lat week sounded cautiously optimistic, though they might not sustain the same level of mergers and acquisitions seen in 2011.

• Finmeccanica SpA said on last Thursday it had appointed its CEO Giuseppe Orsi as CEO & Chairman after Pier Francesco Guarguaglini resigned in the wake of corruption allegations involving the Selex Sistemi Integrati subsidiary.

• Gannett’s Army Times is publishing a 6-part series on the US “secret war” in Eastern Africa.

• The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has a wrap-up on the Super Committee fallout and the implications for defense, in case you haven’t followed recent developments reported in this space. Remember that “automatic cuts are far from a foregone conclusion. Sequestration is simply the result of a law, and laws are always subject to change. Congress has tried to legislate long-term budget levels before, including through sequestration (e.g., the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985), but each time, the original law has not lasted long.”