IAF: Jaguar, Mirage 2000
SU-30K, MiG-27, MiG-21BiS
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“It’s the biggest fighter aircraft deal since the early 1990s,” said Boeing’s Mark Kronenberg, who runs the company’s Asia/Pacific business. DID has offered ongoing coverage of India’s planned multi-billion dollar jet fighter buy, from its early days as a contest between Dassault, Saab, and MiG for a 126 plane order to the entry of American competitors and even EADS’ Eurofighter. What began as a lightweight fighter competition to replace India’s shrinking MiG-21 interceptor fleet appears to have bifurcated into two categories now, and two expense tiers.

That trend got a sharp boost in March 2006, when Press Trust of India (PTI) reported a surprise pullout by the CEO of Dassault on the eve of the RFP. The Mirage 2000v5 will no longer be fielded for the India deal, even though India already flies 40 Mirage 2000Ds, and its senior officials have touted standardization as a plus factor. So, what’s going on?

In a word, lots. The participants changed, India’s view of its own needs is changing, and the nature of the order may be changing as well – but with the release of the official $10 billion RFP, the competition can begin at last. DID offers an in-depth look at the MRCA/MMRCA competition’s changes, the RFP, and the competitors; and also offers an updated timeline regarding competitive moves since this article was published in March 2006. Boeing has now submitted their proposal…

• India’s MRCA (Multi-Role Combat Aircraft): Changes (i.e. “Continue reading…”)
• MMRCA: The RFP, Please…
• The Competitors: Analysis
• MMRCA: Updates and Developments [updated]
• Appendix A – MMRCA: The Naval Angle
• Appendix B – Dassault’s Move: Au Revoir, Mirage
  
  Continue Reading… »

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Reuters reports that the USAF met last week with Boeing and Northrop Grumman’s CEOs “to voice concern about the “vitriolic” tone of public statements over a $35 billion refueling aircraft program.” Particular concern was expressed regarding Boeing’s allegations of irregularities in the USAF’s KC-X competition process. Defense analyst Loren Thompson, of the Virginia-based Lexington Institute went so far as to say that: “The tone of the tanker debate has turned so negative that Air Force leaders are concerned that it could damage their long-term relationship with Boeing.”

Analysis: The effect of this meeting, if any, will depend on Boeing’s assessment of a straightforward question: If the potential prize is nearly $20 billion in work over 20 years, how much strain on their long-term relationship with the USAF becomes an acceptable risk in the current environment?

Industry trends are also playing a role…

Continue Reading… »

UH-1Y and AH-1Z
by Neville Dawson
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The US Marines’ helicopter force is aging on all levels, from CH-46 Sea Knights far older than their pilots to the 1980s era UH-1N Hueys and AH-1W Cobra attack helicopters that make up the Corps’ helicopter assault force. While the V-22 program has staggered along for almost 2 decades under accidents, technical delays, and cost issues, replacement of the USMC’s backbone helicopter assets has languished. Given the high-demand scenarios inherent in the current war, other efforts are clearly required.

Enter the H-1 program, the USMC’s plan to remanufacture 100 of the Marines’ old UH-1N Hueys and 180 of its AH-1W Super Cobra attack helicopters into advanced variants that discard the signature 2-bladed rotors for modern 4-bladed improvements, redo the aircraft’s electronics, and add improved engines and weapons to offer a new level of performance. At least, that was the idea. It hasn’t quite worked out that way, and the H-1 program has encountered its own share of delays and issues. Nevertheless, the program survived a recent review and continues on into the low-rate initial production stage and OpEval Phase II.

This is DID’s FOCUS Article regarding the H-1 program; it will be updated and backfilled as events and opportunity dictate. Recent developments include the Marines’ confirmed intent to expand the program…

• The H-1 Helicopters
• The H-1 Program
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
  Continue Reading… »

HH-47 Concept
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Several DID articles have covered the $10-15 billion CSAR-X competition aimed at replacing the USAF’s HH-60G Pave Hawk combat search-and-rescue helicopters, and noted its twists and turns. From profiles of the original options, to transfers of program responsibility between AFSOC and the USAF and the withdrawal of the PRV-22 Osprey from competition, to Sikorsky’s decision to offer the H-92 Superhawk, to our FOCUS Article covering the Boeing HH-47 Chinook’s contract win in November 2006, the CSAR-X/PRV program has been eventful.

February 26, 2007 added one more big event: the US Government Accountability Office, a non-partisan agency of Congress, upheld Sikorsky and Lockheed Martin’s protests over Boeing’s win. Would the GAO ruling be interpreted narrowly, triggering a double-checking exercise, or more broadly, triggering a renewed evaluation process? Worse, could the GAO’s follow-up defining the award’s problem areas create so many issues that further protests from whomever loses bring the program to a halt? The USAF released its RFP v2.0, but Sikorsky and Lockheed Martin filed renewed protests even before the new RFP’s due date. The USAF kept trying to push forward with an accelerated process, but barriers have mounted as it has lost – repeatedly. Meanwhile, the Pave Hawks aren’t getting any younger, or more capable.

DID looks at the 3 competing helicopters’ key advantages and disadvantages, and chronicles the events surrounding the GAO protest and subsequent developments. After their second loss before the GAO, the USAF has now decided to re-compete the contract – in full, with RFP Amendment 5. Which came out at about the same time as a report alleging that CSAR-X’s criteria were changed to allow Boeing’s HH-47 to compete. Meanwhile, almost $100 million is required to update the old HH-60 helicopters as a result of all the delays. DID has the details. The latest item is yet another delay in the planned helicopter buy, confirmed in Amendment 6 to the RFP…

• The GAO’s February 2007 Decision
• The USAF’s Choices, and its Quandary
• The CSAR-X Controversy: Updates & Subsequent Events
  
  Continue Reading… »

BAMS Operation Concept
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The world’s P-3 Orion fleets have served for a long time, and many are reaching the end of their lifespans. In the USA, and possibly beyond, the new P-8 Poseidon Multi-mission Maritime Aircraft will take up the P-3’s role. While the P-8’s base 737-based airframe offers strong service & maintenance arguments in its favor, the airframe is expensive enough that the P-3s cannot be replaced on a 1:1 basis.

In order to extend the P-8 fleet’s reach, and provide additional capabilities, the Poseidon is expected to work with at least one companion platform under the BAMS (Broad Area Maritime Surveillance) and/or PUMAS (Persistent Unmanned Aerial Surveillance) programs. The BAMS UAV competition is widely seen as a fight between Northrop Grumman’s high-flying, jet-powered RQ-4 Global Hawk, and General Atomics’ turboprop-powered Mariner (a cousin of its MQ-9 Reaper); but Boeing entered an optionally unmanned G550 business jet.

This DID FOCUS Article explains the BAMS concept, the program’s key requirements, and its international angle. We’ll also cover ongoing contracts and key events related to the program… including the recent announcement of a winner.

• Next-Gen Maritime Patrol Systems: Issues and Options
• BAMS: Requirements and Missions
• BAMS: The International Angle [updated]
• BAMS: The Industry Team [new]
• BAMS: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
  Continue Reading… »

The American Aerospace Industry Association (AIA), which recently made a strong pitch to improve American math and science education, collects statistics that include annual industry trade balances. While the USA as a whole is running a trade deficit of $708.5 bilion in 2007, the final 2007 trade balance tally for the aerospace industry stands at a record positive figure of $60.4 billion.

US Aerospace Exports were $96.9 billion, up 14% from $85 billion in 2006. Military-related exports were only $13 billion of this total, and civil aircraft dominated growth.

US Aerospace Imports were $36.5 billion, up 19.67% from 30.5 billion in 2006. One-third of that growth was reportedly related to commercial transport aircraft and increased imports of regional jets.

AIA President and CEO Marion Blakey said that “Airlines from around the world are stocking up on U.S. aircraft because of growing demand in both emerging and established markets… This is a very hot market despite economic uncertainty.” Blakey did not discuss what impact rising fuel prices might have on that growth’s rate, direction, and composition. AIA release.

LPD 14 Trenton,
now INS Jalashava
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Rumors are flying that India is set to sign a $2.2 billion deal with Boeing for 8 P-8I maritime patrol aircraft, and American companies are competing like never before in critical defense competitions like the $10+ billion medium multi-role fighter bid. The process of working through foreign defense sales is far more complex than simply winning competitions, or even establishing an industrial network within your target market. In societies with accountable governments, the arms trade comes under a number of key regulations, and government to government agreements that lay out key terms are critical in order to lay the framework for industrial cooperation and sales.

One aspect of arms sales regulations that’s quite common at present is restrictions on what a country may do with the equipment it buys. Prohibitions on second-hand sales without approval of the exporting country are routine inclusions, even by regimes that have no political compunctions about selling weapons to anyone. After all, as tech firms like Cisco and Sun found out during the dot-com crash, having your high-end hardware sold on eBay does terrible things to the bottom line. Many accountable governments have also been pushed into offering a second kind of restriction, however: restrictions on what the purchasing country can do with the equipment, even within its own borders. Any machine needs maintenance, which provides sufficient leverage to ensure cooperation. Even so, many countries like Indonesia and Chad are becoming restive. As international equipment options continue to broaden, some countries like Indonesia are even switching suppliers to ensure non-interference.

Indian Navy chief Admiral Sureesh Mehta recently expressed similar sentiments with respect to side agreements the USA is requesting, and whose absence is slowing down the growing military relationship between the 2 countries…

Continue Reading… »

Boeing’s concept
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Three teams have now received Phase 1 contracts to begin developing develop a radical new aircraft, under a US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) program known as “Vulture.”

DARPA’s goals for Vulture are not trivial: 5 years on station with a 450kg/ 1,000lb payload, 5kW of onboard power, and sufficient loiter speed to stay on station for 99% of the time against winds encountered at 60,000-90,000 feet. The system could act as a satellite substitute for communications relay or reconnaissance, as long as the payload fit within the weight limit. Vulture would be more vulnerable to anti-aircraft missiles than a satellite, and could be targeted by fighter jets as well given the right launch profile; on the other hand, that closeness would improve sensor resolution and communications capability.

The engineering challenges ahead are formidable, as one would expect for a DARPA project. The power system in particular must be extremely reliable, and the aircraft’s materials will require advances of their own. Odysseus will be exposed to far more warming and cooling than satellites, and more ultraviolet radiation which will affect the aircraft’s materials. The design is also likely to require very large wings, both to help keep it aloft and to accommodate the number of solar cells required. Conditions at altitude can challenge the durability of those wings, especially with hydrogen storage tanks attached. Aerovironment’s Helios (1998-2003) demonstrated this the hard way in its 2003 crash.

So, who is competing, and what are the proposed designs?

Continue Reading… »

P-8A Poseidon
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Many people would contend that the P-3 Orion is the greatest maritime patrol aircraft ever flown. These aircraft entered service in 1959 and will continue to serve past 2011. Modifications to their equipment have sharpened their capabilities, and even given them a land-attack and surveillance role. In service with 15 countries, the Orion is a great success – but it’s a very old success, and a replacement is needed.

The P-8A has emerged from the P-7 LRAACA program that was begun in 1988. That program originally envisaged an improved P-3G design, but program cost overruns and interest in opening the competition to commercial designs led to cancellation in 1990. The successor MMA program was begun in March 2000, and Boeing beat Lockheed’s “Orion 21” for the contract with a design based on the ubiquitous 737 passenger jet.

Filling the P-3 Orion’s shoes will be no easy task. What missions will the new P-8A Poseidon face? What do we know about the platform, the project team, and ongoing developments? Will the P-3’s level of global customer coverage give its successor a comparable level of export opportunities? Australia has already signed on, but has the larger market shifted in the interim?

This is DID’s FOCUS Article concerning the P-8A Poseidon Multi-mission Maritime Aircraft, and it will be updated as events and contracts are announced. In the latest news, India may be about to join the program…

• The Controversy: Turboprop, or Turbofan Jet?
• P-8A Poseidon: Platform & Capabilities
• The P-8’s BAMS Companion: Kicking It Up a Notch
• P-8A Poseidon: Program & History
• P-8A Poseidon: Contracts & Events [updated]
• News & Analysis: India’s Interest, and Broader Export Potential
• Additional Readings & Sources: Platforms & Program Background
• Additional Readings & Sources: News & Updates
  
  Continue Reading… »

C-17 over Hawaii
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The C-17 Globemaster III remains the backbone of US Air Mobility Command inter-theater transport efforts around the world, and its ability to operate from shorter and rougher runways has made it especially useful during the Global War on Terror. The USA may cap production at 191 planes (though the House has inserted 10 more in the Fy 2008 bill), but a fierce fight is underway to preserve the program and even think tanks are lobbying hard. Meanwhile, various upgrades (including LAIRCM defensive systems) continue – along with heavy usage that is accumulating fatigue hours far faster than originally planned.

Which brings us to the subject of maintenance. The rising cost of maintenance has made it a greater concern to the world’s militaries, and new contract vehicles are reflecting that. Under the C-17 Globemaster III Sustainment Partnership, Boeing has total system support responsibility for the big transport aircraft, including materiel management and depot maintenance, for fleets around the world. The goal is total aircraft sustainment support under a single contract, with the goal of achieving improvements in logistics support and mission readiness while reducing operating and support costs. The initial contract had an estimated total value of $4.9 billion, which is likely to grow slightly just as Boeing’s customer base has done via buys by Australia (4), Britain (6), Canada (4), and NATO (4).

While the C-17 may have limited production time in its future, the C-17 Globemaster Sustainment Partnership is likely to continue for many years. This is DID’s FOCUS Article covering that effort; it will be backfilled and updated as time goes on. The latest addition involves Britain’s annual installment for its 6 C-17s…

• The C-17 Globemaster III
• The C-17 Globemaster III Sustainment Partnership
• The C-17 PE/PI Program
• Contracts and Key Events, FY 2004-Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
  Continue Reading… »