French Cougar SAR/SOF
(click to view full)

In November 2007, “Brazil Embarking Upon F-X2 Fighter Program?” discussed both the revived fighter competition, and Brazil’s surprising 50% boost to its defense budget. Other programs mentioned in that article included Brazil’s selection of a medium transport helicopter and of an attack helicopter, with other programs to follow. After decades of neglect, Brazil is reconstituting both its armed forces, and a defense industry that once offered an array of competitive products on the global stage.

The medium transport helicopter competition featured 3 established players: AgustaWestland’s EH101 has found success in Britain, Europe, Japan, and even in America as the next Presidential helicopter. Eurocopter’s EC725 Cougar is an updated version of the popular AS332/532 Super Puma, and has been ordered in limited quantities by the French government for special forces and search and rescue roles. An up-to-date version of Russia’s widely used Mi-17 was the 3rd contender; like the Super Puma, Mi-8 and Mi-17 helicopters are already in wide use within Latin America.

In truth, however, Eurocopter always had an edge. The Brazilian Amy’s Aviacao do Exercito already uses the AS532/”HM-3” Super Puma, basing them in the Amazon at Manaus. Its Navy also uses Super Puma variants: AS332s and AS532s both serve in the Navy as the UH-14, flying from Brazil’s NAe Sao Paulo aircraft carrier and from the southeastern base of Sao Pedro da Aldeia in support of Brazil’s Marines. Now, Eurocopter’s offering will become Brazil’s medium-lift helicopter across all services…

• The Cougar and the Opportunity
• Contracts & Key Events
  
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A129 ATAK
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Turkey has been looking to modernize its attack helicopter fleet since the mid-1990s, but the process has mostly served as an object lesson in how not to buy defense equipment. DID has covered difficulties with this competition before; after numerous snafus, technology transfer and production issues, and canceled competitions, all 3 invited American manufacturers had abandoned the competition entirely.

Even the most recent “final” round seemed imperiled, following reports of the Turkish military’s deep dissatisfaction with the choices; nevertheless, the competition survived long enough to pick a “winner”: an updated version of its A129. Now, signed industrial arrangements contracts with AugustaWestland allow the 12-year program to move forward at last. But Turkey didn’t just buy helicopters – they bought the model, lock, stock, and rotor, in a transaction that has just completed…

• The Finalists
• The Winner
• Contracts & Key Events
• Appendix A: “I Coulda Been A Contenda…”
• Additional Readings and Sources
  
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PJ-10 BrahMos
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Back in November 2005, The Hindu newspaper reported that India’s government has given the go-ahead for exporting missiles, and that India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is looking to market several of its products internationally. The DRDO will participate in international expos as part of its marketing strategy, and government officials have claimed interest from African, Gulf and South-East Asian countries. They have also noted, however, that India’s government would be required to approve any foreign sales to specific countries.

The missile systems in question include:

• Trishul (“trident”) short-range surface-air missile (SAM)
• Akash (“sky”) medium-range SAM
• Nag (“cobra”) anti-armor missile; and the
• Indo-Russian BrahMos medium-range supersonic cruise missile, which is primarily designed as an anti-ship weapon but can also perform land attack.

DID describes each of these programs, then adds some analysis that offers insights into these long-running missile programs and their competitive prospects. Updates have also been added, including another milestone from BrahMos, and a potential joint enture with France that could afect a number of existing IGMP and IGMP-replacement programs…

• The Missiles: IGMP set, and BrahMos
• Program Updates [updated]
• Appendix A: India’s Export Prospects – DID Op/Ed Analysis (Dec 1/05)
• Appendix B: Additional Readings & Sources – Related Reports & News
• Appendix C: Additional Readings & Sources – The Missiles
  
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SSN Akula Class
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According to GlobalSecurity.org, India’s ATV (advanced technology vessel) program to build a nuclear-powered submarine began in 1974, and became a serious effort in 1985. The Federation of American Scientists’ December 1996 document “The Indian Strategic Nuclear Submarine Project: An Open Literature Analysis” remains one of the best single open sources on India’s program. Unfortunately, it was compiled over a decade ago and has become rather dated.

Meanwhile, even if one leaves out the problem-plagued Type 091 Han Class nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN) and old, updated-Romeo Type 035 Ming Class SSKs entirely, China’s attack sub force is still projected at about 30 subs by 2010, including 4 Type 093 Shang Class SSN nuclear powered attack subs and 8 Kilo (Project 636) & Advanced Kilo Class (Project 877) diesel-electric SSKs.

A Pakistani paper claims that the Akula-derived INS Chakra will be operational in 2009… but careful analysis raises questions concerning some of that report’s claims.

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As Ferrari racing fans are very aware these days, industrial espionage that goes far beyond the bounds of ethical competitive intelligence is alive and kicking. This is even more true in the aerospace industry, whose national security implications often feature national intelligence organizations undertaking industrial espionage – in some cases, even against allied countries. China is most frequently mentioned in this context, with good reason, but Russia and France have also built reputations in this area.

A recent case in Europe shines a brief light on some of these goings on – and on some classic techniques used in the field. Deutsche Welle reports that former Eurocopter executive “Werner G.” allegedly met with a Russian SVR intelligence agent several times between 2004 and 2006 in Germany, Austria and Croatia, handing over unclassified technical manuals, files and CD-ROMs in exchange for EUR 13,000 (about $20,500). In a modern twist, classic techniques like dead drops and visual signals were bypassed in favor of anonymous webmail accounts to arrange meetings.

Remember this acronym: MICE. Money. Ideology. Compromise. Ego. Werner G. was reportedly in debt, and hoped his contact would help him gain business for his engineering consultancy. He clearly falls into the “money” category, as opposed to the Ferrari scandal which was primarily an “ego” example. His activities may also seem to come very cheap, but this too is normal when dealing with intelligence professionals. As is the fact that none of the requested documents were classified. This is often how it starts, with deliberately low-grade requests and pay. This achieves 2 things: (1) It fails to relieve the need for money, ensuring that the fish remains hooked; and (2) it establishes a firm hold, since later requests for secret documents can be backed up by the threat of exposure for clearly illegal activities that have already been committed.

Indian Mi-17s
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In October 2006, the Indo-Asian News Service reported that the Indian Air Force will buy 80 medium lift multi-role Mi-17 1V helicopters from Russia. India’s Chief of Air Staff Marshal S.P. Tyagi reportedly told the news agency that the contractual detail would be finalized within a few months, that Russia will start delivering the helicopters in 2007, and that deliveries would finish within a year. MosNews estimated the deal’s value at approximately $662 million, with the exact value depending on ancillary equipment like avionics.

The deal is the result of a dance over time involving both Sikorsky and India’s HAL, and the Mi-17 1V incorporates a few changes to the well-known Mi-17 already in service with India. Of course, “a couple of months” in Indian procurement time turns out to be over 2 years – and in a familiar scenario, Russia is now asking for far more than the originally agreed deal terms…

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Yak-130
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In an earlier February 1, 2006 report, DID noted that a $4 billion arms sale was brewing between Algeria and Russia involving fighter aircraft, tanks, and air defense systems, with the possibility of additional equipment. Those options would appear to have come through, as numerous sources are now reporting that a high-level Russian delegation in Algeria has closed $7.5 billion worth of arms contracts. The Algerian package would be post-Soviet Russia’s largest ever single arms deal, and compares to annual Russian weapons exports to all customers of $5-6 billion per year over the last couple of years.

T-90 tank
(click to view full)

Reuters South Africa quotes Rosoboronexport chief Sergei Chemezov as saying that “Practically all types of arms which we have are included, anti-missile systems, aviation, sea and land technology.” Reports regarding the exact composition of the deal vary, and many don’t add up when measured against a $7.5 billion total. DID has found reports that seems closer to the mark based on the package’s value, however, and the structure of the deal itself and Algeria’s past pattern of arms acquisitions are highly consequential and so worth discussing.

So, too, are recent developments, as Algeria’s complaints over weapon quality are causing something almost unheard-of in the global arms market: a refund request. The rumors are flying. What’s going on? Could a large chunk of Russia’s arms order book be in jeopardy? What’s really behind it? And how does this tie in to larger industrial issues for Russia’s arms industry, as shown in contracts like the Gorshkov carrier refit? DID explains, as the MiG-29 deal crashes, and the ripple effects begin stalling other elements of the arms package. What has happened to Algeria’s delivered MiGs, and could RAC MiG still pull out a deal?

• Detailing the Deal: The Algerian Package [updated]
• Structuring the Deal: Anatomy of a Euro Squeeze Play
• Updates & Developments [updated]
• Appendix A: Algeria’s Appetite for Advanced Arms
• Appendix B: Russia’s Arms Industry Woes
• Appendix C: Additional Readings [updated]
  
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Adm. Gorshkov: Before.
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On January 20, 2004 India and Russia signed a deal to refurbish and convert the 40,000t Soviet/Russian Admiral Gorshkov into a full carrier by removing the guns, anti-shipping and anti-air missile launchers on the front deck, replacing them with a full runway and ski jump, changing the boilers to diesel fuel, enlarging and strengthening the rear aircraft elevator, and many other modifications. The announced delivery date for INS Vikramaditya was August 2008 – an ambitious schedule, but one that would allow the carrier to enter service in 2009, around the time as their 29,000t light carrier/LHA INS Viraat (formerly HMS Hermes, last of the Centaur class) was scheduled to retire. The new ship will berth at the new Indian Navy facility in Karwar, on India’s west coast.

Initial reports of delays sparked controversy in India, but even the Ministry has now admitted their truth. The INS Viraat’s retirement is now set for 2010-2012 – but even that may not be late enough, as slow negotiations and steadily-lengthening delivery times will push delivery of the Gorshkov back to 2010 at the earliest. Reports of delivery in 2012 or later have surfaced, even as the delivery date for India’s 37,500 ton indigenous carrier appears to be slipping back well beyond 2013.

Right now, there are 2 major concerns in India. One is that slipping timelines could easily leave India without a serviceable aircraft carrier. The other is the extent of the cost increases, especially if more increases are added once India has paid for most of the budgeted work and is deep into the commitment trap. The carrier purchase has now become the subject of high level diplomacy, involving a shipyard that can’t even execute on commercial contracts, and an agreement in principle that has yet to be finalized into a contract. Meanwhile, Russia’s new naval fighters will have to deploy on land, because the country has no operational carriers, and the Kitty Hawk rumor may have been laid to rest…

• Waiting for Gorshkov…
• Gorshkov-Vikramaditya: Aerial Complement
• INS Vikramaditya: Updates & Contracts [updated]
• Appendix A: Additional Readings – Equipment Profiles
• Appendix B: Additional Readings – Related Developments
  
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Chilean Phalcon/ Condor
(click to view full)

In February 2006, “India’s Air Force Looks to Enhance Its Reach With Upgrades & Force Multipliers” discussed India’s growing shift toward aircraft that would give it the ability to patrol and act at extended ranges. In January 2004, India and Israel signed a $1.1 billion contract for 3 Phalcon airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft, as part of a $1.5 billion tripartite agreement with Russia. The Prem PS-90 engines in the upgraded IL-76TD aircraft will make operation in India’s hot climates easier, and the system will also reportedly make heavy use of Russian electronics, including a partial glass cockpit.

Israel Aerospace Industries’ Phalcon system is built around an ELTA EL/M-2075 AESA L-band radar, then adds electronic and communications intelligence gathering (ELINT and COMINT) capabilities. The system can also receive transmissions from other air and ground stations, and uses sensor fusion to provide a complete picture of the battlespace. IAI had already delivered an earlier-model 707-based “Condor” system to Chile, and has created a Phalcon variant for Israel and Singapore that fits into a Gulfstream 550 business jet. India already operates the IL-76 as its strategic transport aircraft and aerial refueling tanker (IL-78), however, and made its decision accordingly.

Now reports are surfacing that India intends to extend its AWACs capabilities on 2 fronts, even as its original order will be delayed again…

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IAF: Jaguar, Mirage 2000
SU-30K, MiG-27, MiG-21BiS
(click to view full)

“It’s the biggest fighter aircraft deal since the early 1990s,” said Boeing’s Mark Kronenberg, who runs the company’s Asia/Pacific business. DID has offered ongoing coverage of India’s planned multi-billion dollar jet fighter buy, from its early days as a contest between Dassault, Saab, and MiG for a 126 plane order to the entry of American competitors and even EADS’ Eurofighter. What began as a lightweight fighter competition to replace India’s shrinking MiG-21 interceptor fleet appears to have bifurcated into two categories now, and two expense tiers.

That trend got a sharp boost in March 2006, when Press Trust of India (PTI) reported a surprise pullout by the CEO of Dassault on the eve of the RFP. The Mirage 2000v5 will no longer be fielded for the India deal, even though India already flies 40 Mirage 2000Ds, and its senior officials have touted standardization as a plus factor. So, what’s going on?

In a word, lots. The participants changed, India’s view of its own needs is changing, and the nature of the order may be changing as well – but with the release of the official $10 billion RFP, the competition can begin at last. DID offers an in-depth look at the MRCA/MMRCA competition’s changes, the RFP, and the competitors; and also offers an updated timeline regarding competitive moves since this article was published in March 2006. Gripen International have submitted their bid, and details re: Boeing’s proposal are now emerging…

• India’s MRCA (Multi-Role Combat Aircraft): Changes (i.e. “Continue reading…”)
• MMRCA: The RFP, Please…
• The Competitors: Analysis
• MMRCA: Updates and Developments [updated]
• Appendix A – MMRCA: The Naval Angle
• Appendix B – Dassault’s Move: Au Revoir, Mirage
  
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