• The US House Budget Committee approved a bill to roll back sequestration through reconciliation and instead offers cuts focused on welfare programs. Getting the Heritage Foundation’s seal of approval was a foregone conclusion, but what is missing is a roadmap for such proposals to get any traction in the Senate, let alone get a signature from President Obama. The window of opportunity will be narrow in the lame duck session at the end of the year, and perilously close to the edge of the fiscal cliff.

• RAND published its latest research on portfolio management for Army programs at the Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) stage of the acquisition lifecycle. They have been working to develop a methodology to determine optimal remaining R&D budgets as well as identify which projects to terminate in case of budget cuts.

• The law, and turf wars, stand in the way of clear, updated cyberdefense rules being finalized in the US.
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• Hawker Beechcraft filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to restructure its debt.

• CACI’s Q3 FY 2012 results: $928M revenue (+1.6%), $2.04B funded backlog (+4.7%).

• The GAO’s latest reports on DoD logistics look at Item Unique Identification (IUID) implementation and inventory management. DOD manages more than 4 million secondary items and had inventory worth $95.6B as of September 2010. The Pentagon aims to lower its on-order excess inventory to 6% of obligated on-order dollars by the end of FY14 and 4% in FY16.
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Gripen & S-1000/S340

It’s a small, agile fighter that can take off and land on highways, while carrying the latest technologies and weapons. It does very well against NATO’s best aircraft in exercises, comes with a reasonable price tag, and is built for low lifetime operating costs. Unfortunately, in a world where people often buy your weapons because they want you to be their friend, the cachet of having Sweden in your corner isn’t quite what it used to be when their sailors wore those cool horned helmets. As a result, the JAS-39 Gripen is an excellent, reasonably-priced fighter yet it has been struggling for traction in the global marketplace.

A recent sale to Thailand has expanded Saab’s horizons somewhat, as the Gripen beat out the SU-30s favored by the previous Thai government. Lockheed Martin’s F-16 had been considered the leading contender to replace the RTAF’s 15-25 aging F-5B/Es, given Thailand’s extensive history with that aircraft. Other candidates included Russia’s MiG-29, and France’s Rafale. Saab had a very competitive offering on cost and performance, but in order to win, they had to throw in a very significant “something extra”: their Saab 340-AEW AWACS aircraft.

• The Thai AF and the Program
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Apendix A – Wild Card: Thailand’s Political Situation (October 2007)
• Appendix B – Additional Readings
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SU-35 flight test, 2009

The Russian SU-35 was something of a mystery for many years. Pictures from Russian firms showed different fighter jets carrying that label, even as the aircraft remained a prospective design and research project, rather an active program of record.

Revelations after 2007 began to provide answers. This article explains the sources of the widespread confusion regarding the SU-35’s layout and key characteristics, reviews what is now known about the platform, and tracks its development. Those developments are likely to have broad consequences. The aircraft now has a home customer in the Russian Air Force, and the SU-35 is being positioned to succeed most SU-30MK variants as Russia’s fighter export of choice within the coming decade. Will its succession bid succeed?

• Which Sukhoi? The SU-35 Platform
• SU-35: Export Prospects [updated]
• SU-35: Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
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• South Korea’s Daewoo continues to expand its military shipbuilding reach. Fresh off wins in Indonesia (Type 209 submarines) and Britain (MARS support ship/ oilers), it has signed an MoU with Peru for submarines and “multi-role support ships.” To turn that into a contract, they’ll have to clinch a final deal with the government, but the MoU gives them exclusive negotiating rights. Peru currently operates 6 old U209 submarines, and could use some support ships built after the 1980s.

• North Korea’s rocket went ka-boom... less than 12 minutes into its flight. What next?

• India’s new Talwar Class frigate, Teg, has completed sea trials, and is scheduled for handover at its Russian shipyard on April 27/12.

• India stood up its 3rd squadron of naval surveillance UAVs, made up of IAI Searcher and IAI Heron UAVs. The southern INAS 344 squadron is in Tamil Nadu, joining its fellow squadrons to the west (Gurajat) and East (Kerala).

• Research funded by the US Navy’s Office of Naval Research (ONR) is using recently-improved friction-stir welding (FSW) techniques at the National Center for Advanced Manufacturing (NCAM) to see whether titanium could be used for shipbuilding. Using titanium instead of steel for ship hulls would reduce maintenance costs because you wouldn’t have to obsess about corrosion, and lower fuel costs – or allow bigger payloads – because titanium is lighter and stronger. But then that metal is much more expensive than steel and harder to work with. Titanium is used for piping in San Antonio class ships and that required the development of sophisticated welding techniques and craftsmanship too. Whether the Soviet Union was using titanium to build submarines during the Cold War kept CIA analysts busy in the 70s. Around the same time the ONR rebuilt its ALVIN submersible in titanium which allowed pretty deep dives.

• When you turn defense policy debates into arguments about who is creating most jobs, you end up with silly academic distractions.

• Admiral James Winnefeld, Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke at CSIS’ Global Security Forum 2012 yesterday. The topic of sequestration came up during the Q&A after his address [PDF]. Showing a position that’s in line with comments made by DoD Comptroller Robert Hale a few weeks ago, Winnefeld said:
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• US Navy Vice Adm. Mark Harnitchek, Director of the Defense Logistics Agency since November 2011, published his revised 2012 guidance [PDF] that conveniently highlights where the changes are. Among them, improved support for reset and force drawdown processes in Afghanistan starts with optimized use of the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a necessity pointed out on DID just two days ago. Airlift through the NDN (dubbed Northern Distribution Nightmare by Foreign Policy – see also this WaPo map which was drawn before options like use of the Ulyanovsk Russian airport were discussed) is way more expensive than using Pakistan’s GLOC (Ground Lines of Communication) and Karachi port. As in, as much as 3 to 5 times more expensive to ship out about 50,000 vehicles.

• As a side note, when USMC Lieutenant General Frank A. Panter, Jr. discussed options at a recent HASC hearing, he never said Indian but rather NDN, contrarily to bad transcripts floated in the Indian press. How would India even make sense if you glance at a map? It beats us too.

• The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission published a report [PDF] on indigenous weapons development in China’s military modernization. They conclude that many analysts have let themselves being misled and blindsided by trends from past decades that no longer apply. “U.S. analysts and policymakers should expect to see continued advancements in the ability of the PRC to produce modern weapons platforms, and an attendant increase in the operational capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army.”
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• The Defense Acquisition University (DAU) put together a convenient chart [PPT] that compares major contract types – FPAF, CPIF, T&M et. al. – to show what risks they intend to mitigate, when they should be used, their main elements, what they commit the contractor to and where’s the incentive.

• The DAU’s 2012 industry day will take place on May 1st in Fort Belvoir, VA. On the agenda: affordable programs, efficiency, and DoD’s industrial base policy.

• Milnews.ca has a good round-up on Canada’s 2012 budget cuts.
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Kilo Class cutaway

In April 2009, reports surfaced that Vietnam had agreed in principle to a deal with Russia for 6 of its diesel-electric Kilo/ Project 636 Class fast attack submarines. There have been rumors that Vietnam owns 2 ex-Yugoslav mini-submarines for use in commando operations, but the Vietnamese People’s Navy doesn’t own any full size submarines that can take on enemy subs and ships. That’s about to change, thanks to a December 2009 contract.

Nor is that the only change in Vietnam’s military capabilities these days. China’s April 2009 display of naval might is only part of the mosaic influencing Vietnam’s decisions in these matters, as contracts for submarines – and far more – are being signed with its long-time Russian ally:

• Vietnam’s New Military Buys: Considerations
• Contracts and Key Events (2009 – Present) [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
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T129 ATAK

Turkey has been looking to modernize its attack helicopter fleet since the mid-1990s, but the process has mostly served as an object lesson in how not to buy defense equipment. This competition faced many difficulties; after numerous snafus, technology transfer and production issues, and canceled competitions, all 3 invited American manufacturers had abandoned the competition entirely.

Even the “final” round seemed imperiled, following reports of the Turkish military’s deep dissatisfaction with the choices; nevertheless, the competition survived long enough to pick a “winner”: an updated version of the A129 Mangusta. Now, signed industrial arrangements contracts with AgustaWestland allow the 12-year program to move forward at last. But Turkey didn’t just buy helicopters – they bought the model, lock, stock, and rotor:

• Program and Finalists
• T129: The Winner
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Appendix A: “I Coulda Been A Contenda…”
• Appendix B: Additional Readings and Sources
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IL-78MK with SU-30MKIs
(click to expand)

The IAF already operates Russian IL-76 transports, and 6 or 7 related IL-78MK “Midas” aerial tankers. As the Indian Air Force inducts high-value aircraft grows, however, the need for aerial refueling tankers grows along with them. That’s why India plans to buy another 6 aerial tankers, in order to meet its modernization objectives.

By the mid-2000s India’s Air Force was expressing interest in buying modern aerial tankers, AWACS radar planes, maritime patrol aircraft, and other long-range, high-value aircraft. India is receiving IL-76TD based A-50EI Phalcon AWACS radar aircraft from Israel, and has ordered Lockheed Martin’s C-130J-30 Hercules transports for its special forces and Boeing’s 737-derived P-8i Poseidon for maritime patrol. A project is underway to develop a mid-size AWACS aircraft, and a competition will select a similar-sized maritime patrol plane to complement the new P-8is. Aerial tankers enhance the capability of nearly every aircraft in this set, along with India’s fighter fleet.

In order to add to its fleet, however, the IAF must first overcome India’s bureaucracy:

• India’s New Tankers: Enter Airbus [updated]
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
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