F-15S & weapons

In August 2010, reports surfaced in the Wall Street Journal that Saudi Arabia was negotiating a $30-60 billion arms package with the USA. The reported deal was said to involve another 84 F-15 Strike Eagles to replace the Kingdom’s Tornado strike aircraft and/or F-15A-D fighters, about 132 UH-60 Black Hawk utility and AH-64 attack helicopters, and armaments to equip them.

Since the deal didn’t even reach the official DSCA request stage until October 2010, details were still hazy at best. The reports did tie in to a number of events and deals that have been covered in previous years, however, and some details and key questions have emerged over time in reports, and in the DSCA’s filings. This article looks at those requests, their tie-ins, the issues that are part of these potential deals, and related follow-on requests. As is often the case with DSCA announcements, years can pass between the requests and the signed contracts, but these contracts have started to roll in…

• Purchases & Progress: The Dashboard
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
• Appendix A: Rumors, Questions & Competitors
  • Wings of Eagles – Which F-15s?
  • What’s the Buzz – Helicopters
  • Foreign Affairs: Considerations and Competitors
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Every year the US Department of Defense goes through a complicated process to establish and finalize its budget. This entry will keep tracking the budgeting cycle for fiscal year 2013 as it unfolds over the months, in a fractious political environment, and with the threat of sequestration looming over multi-year budgets that do not take it into account.

• President Budget
• FYDP
• House Bill [updated]
• Senate Bill (expected Sept. 2012)
• Conference & final bill (expected Sept. 2012)
• Congressional Hearings [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
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FH-77Bs, Kargil War
via Bharat Rakshak

India has marked over $4 billion worth of artillery projects to purchase several hundred new 155mm howitzers. They are intended to supplement India’s dwindling artillery stocks, while out-ranging and out-shooting Pakistan’s self-propelled M109 155mm guns. It seemed simple enough, and in the main towed artillery competition, BAE Systems Bofors had been competing against systems from Israel’s Soltam and Denel of South Africa.

Unfortunately, India’s 2 towed howitzer competitions, and its 2 self-propelled artillery procurements, have mostly served as cautionary tales. If the stakes were not so high, they would qualify as farce. The simple process of buying off-the-shelf artillery guns has become a decades-long affair filled with legal drama, accusations of corruption, and more than one re-start. Meanwhile, India’s stock of operational 155mm FH77 howitzers has dwindled to around 200. Competitions are declared, and canceled, again and again. One is on its 5th iteration. Another is on its 3rd. Meanwhile, India’s last successful artillery buy was over 2 decades ago. Is there an end in sight to any of these competitions? Or a potential winner?

• Towed Artillery Competition Saga
• India’s Howitzer Competitions
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
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ER/MP, armed

In August 2005, “Team Warrior” leader General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. in San Diego, CA won a $214.4 million cost-plus-incentive-fee contract for research, development, test and evaluation (RDT&E) of the Extended Range/ Multi Purpose Unmanned Aerial Vehicle System (ER/MP UAS). That was just the first step along the US Army’s $5 billion road to fielding a true Medium Altitude, Long Endurance, armed UAV, modified from the USAF’s famous MQ-1 Predator.

The ER/MP program was part of the US Army’s reinvestment of dollars from the canceled RAH-66 Comanche helicopter program, and directly supports the Army’s Aviation Modernization Plan. Its position got a boost when a 2007 program restructuring cut the Future Combat Systems Class III UAV competition, in favor of ER/MP. Next, the US Air Force saw this Predator derivative as a threat and tried to destroy it, but the program survived the first big “Key West” battle of the 21st century. Now the MQ-1C “Gray Eagle” is moving into full production, as the US Army’s high-end UAV. This FOCUS article offers a program history, key statistics and budget figures, and ongoing coverage of the program’s contracts and milestones.

• The MQ-1C Gray Eagle, and its Band of Brothers [updated]
• The Army’s ER/MP Program [updated]
• ER/MP UAS – Enter the Warrior: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Appendix A: US Army et. al. vs. USAF Over UAVs
• Appendix B: Who Controls the UAVs? Readings & Primers
• Additional Readings
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KC-135: Old as the hills…

DID’s FOCUS articles cover major weapons acquisition programs – and no program is more important to the USAF than its aerial tanker fleet renewal. In January 2007, the big question was whether there would be a competition for the USA’s KC-X proposal, covering 175 production aircraft and 4 test platforms. The total cost for this first phase alone will exceed $25 billion, but America’s aerial tanker fleet demands new planes to replace its KC-135s, whose most recent new delivery was in 1965. Otherwise, unpredictable age or fatigue issues, like the ones that grounded its F-15A-D fighters in 2008, could ground its aerial tankers – and with them, a substantial slice of the USA’s total airpower.

KC-Y and KC-Z contracts may follow in subsequent decades, in order to replace all 530 (195 active; ANG 251; Reserve 84) active tankers, as well as the USAF’s 59 heavy KC-10 tankers that were delivered from 1979-1987. Then again, fiscal and demographic realities may mean that the 179 plane KC-X buy is “it” for the USAF. Either way, the stakes were huge for all concerned.

In the end, it was Team Boeing’s KC-767 NexGen/ KC-46A (767 derivative) vs. EADS North America’s KC-45A (Airbus KC-30/A330-200 derivative), both within the Pentagon and in the halls of Congress. The financial and employment stakes guaranteed a huge political fight no matter which side won. A fight that ended up sinking, and restarting, the entire program, after Airbus won in February 2008. Three years later, Boeing won the recompete. Now, it has to deliver.

• KC-X: The Program
  • The KC-X Competitions
  • The KC-46A Development Phase
  • The KC-46A Production Phase
• Boeing’s KC-46A, and Its Team [updated]
• KC-X RFP: Contracts & Key Developments [updated]
• Appendix A: KC-X RFP v2.0 – The New Structure
• Appendix B: The Contenders and The Cargo Factor – KC-30B, KC-767… KC-777?
• Appendix C: Airbus KC-30/ KC-45A Team
• Additional Readings
  Continue Reading… »

CH-53K concept
c. Sikorsky

The U.S. Marines have a problem. They rely on their CH-53E Super Stallion medium-heavy lift helicopters to move troops, vehicles, and supplies off of their ships. But the helicopters are wearing out. Fast. The pace demanded by the Global War on Terror is relentless, and usage rates are 3 times normal. Attrition is taking its toll. Over the past few years, CH-53s have been recalled from “boneyard” storage at Davis-Monthan AFB in Tucson, AZ, in order to maintain fleet numbers in the face of recent losses and forced retirements. Now, there are no flyable spares left.

Enter the Heavy Lift Replacement (HLR) program, also known as the CH-53X. It was given the formal designation CH-53K in April 2006, and aims to offer notable performance improvements in a similar-looking package. The question is whether its service entry delay to 2018 will come too late to offset a serious decline in Marine aviation:

• The HLR Program Lifts Off
• The CH-53X / CH-53K
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
• Appendix A: Flying Between Scylla and Charbydis: Navigating The Political Shoals (April 2006)
• Appendix B: Interesting Ideas: The CH-53X Skycrane Concept

No climbing Mt. Fuji

Back in February 2006, Inside The Air Force (ITAF) reported that momentum was building within the Air Force to sell the ultra-advanced F-22A Raptor abroad to trusted U.S. allies, as a way of increasing numbers and production. One of the most likely export prospects was Japan. The Raptor was discussed at a 2007 summit meeting, and in a number of other venues.

In the end, US politics denied export permission for downgraded export variants of the F-22, even as its production line was terminated. That has left Japan looking at other foreign fighter options in the short term, while considering a domestic fighter option as a long-term project. BAE patiently kept promoting the Eurofighter Typhoon, Boeing introduced a stealth F-15 variant before taking a different tack with its F/A-18 Super Hornet, and Lockheed Martin offered its F-35 models. The F-35A was eventually picked, but will its price cost it in Japan? This article looks at Japan’s current force, future options, and ongoing developments.

• The JASDF: Structure & Choices
  • What They Really Wanted: F-22s
• Japan’s F-X: Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  Continue Reading… »

A400M rollout, Seville

Airbus’ A400M is a EUR 20+ billion program that aims to repeat Airbus’ civilian successes in the full size military transport market. A series of smart design decisions were made around capacity (35-37 tonnes/ 38-40 US tons, large enough for survivable armored vehicles), extensive use of modern materials, multi-role capability as a refueling tanker, and a multinational industrial program; all of which leave the aircraft well positioned to take overall market share from Lockheed Martin’s C-130 Hercules. If the USA’s C-17 is allowed to go out of production, the A400M would also have a strong position in the strategic transport market, with only Russian AN-70, IL-76 and AN-124 aircraft as competition. To date, 174 orders have been placed by Germany (now 53 + 7 options), France (50), Spain (27), Britain (now 22), Turkey (10), South Africa (8), Belgium (7), Malaysia (4), and Luxembourg (1). Chile has expressed an unfinalized interest in 3 planes, but is now likely to buy Brazilian KC-390s instead.

EADS’ biggest issue, by far, has been funding for a project that is more than EUR 7 billion over budget. The next biggest issue is timing, as A400M delivery penalties and Lockheed Martin’s strong push for its serving C-130J Super Hercules cast a pall over the A400M’s potential future. The entire project was under moratorium for over a year as all parties decided what to do, but it’s now moving forward again. This DID Spotlight article covers the latest developments, as the A400M project moves into production.

• The A400M Program
  • History
  • Tech Specs and Issues
• The A400M Program: Dilemmas & a Deal
• Updates & Key Events, 2009-Present [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
  Continue Reading… »

C-5 Galaxy

When it was introduced, back in 1970, the C-5 Galaxy was the largest plane in the world. It also has the highest operating cost of any US Air Force weapon system, owing to extremely high maintenance demands as well as poor fuel economy. Worse, availability rates routinely hover near 50%. To add insult to injury, the Russians not only built a bigger plane (the AN-124), they sold it off at the end of the Cold War to semi-private operators, turning it into a commercial success whose customer list now includes… NATO.

Meanwhile, the USA still needs long-range, heavy load airlift. The AN-124’s commercial success may get its production line restarted, but the C-5 has no such hope. Boeing’s smaller C-17s cost more than $200 million per plane. That’s about the cost of a 747-8 freighter, for much higher availability rates than the C-5. What’s the right balance?

Sunrise? Sunset?

The US Air Force believes that the right balance involves keeping some of the larger C-5s, and thought they could save money by upgrading and renewing their avionics (AMP) and engines (RERP). Their hope was that this would eliminate the problems that keep so many C-5s in the hangar, cut down on future maintenance costs, and grow airlift capacity without adding new planes. Unfortunately, the program experienced major cost growth. In response, the C-5M program wound up being both cut in size, and cut in 2. The C-5A and C-5B/C fleets are now slated for different treatment, which will deliver fewer of the hoped-for benefits, in exchange for lower costs and lower risk:

• The C-5’s AMP/RERP Changes
• The AMP/RERP Program and the C-5 Gamble [updated]
• Contracts & Key Events, 1999 – Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
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67% of the fleet

The prime missions of the new DDG-1000 Zumwalt Class destroyer are to provide naval gunfire support, and next-generation air defense, in near-shore areas where other large ships hesitate to tread. There has even been talk of using it as an anchor for action groups of stealthy Littoral Combat Ships and submarines, owing to its design for very low radar, infrared, and acoustic signatures. The estimated 14,500t (battlecruiser size) Zumwalt Class will be fully multi-role, however, with undersea warfare, anti-ship, and long-range attack roles.

True, or False?

That makes the DDG-1000 suitable for another role – as a “hidden ace card,” using its overall stealth to create uncertainty for enemy forces. At over $3 billion per ship for construction alone, however, the program faced significant obstacles if it wanted to avoid fulfilling former Secretary of the Navy Donald Winter’s fears for the fleet. From the outset, DID has noted that the Zumwalt Class might face the same fate as the ultra-sophisticated, ultra-expensive SSN-21 Seawolf Class submarines. That appears to have come true, with news of the program’s truncation to just 3 ships. Meanwhile, production continues. DID’s FOCUS Article for the DDG-1000 program covers the new ships’ capabilities and technologies, key controversies, associated contracts and costs, and related background resources.

• Zumwalt Class: Program and Participants
• DDG-1000 Key Technologies and Features
• DDG-1000 Issues and Controversies
• Zumwalt Class: Contracts and Key Events, 1998 – Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  Continue Reading… »