Trident II D5 Test Launch

Nuclear tipped missiles were first deployed on board US submarines at the height of the Cold War in the 1960s, to deter a Soviet first strike. The deterrence theorists argued that, unlike their land-based cousins, submarine-based nuclear weapons couldn’t be taken out by a surprise first strike, because the submarines were nearly impossible to locate and target. Which meant that Soviet leaders couldn’t hope to destroy all of America’s nuclear weapons before they could be launched against Soviet territory. SLBM/FBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile/ Fleet Ballistic Missile) offered shorter ranges and less accuracy than their land-based ICBM (Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile) counterparts, but the advent of Trident C4 missiles began extending those ranges, and offering other improvements. The C4s were succeeded by larger Trident II D5 missiles, which added precision accuracy and more payload.

The year that the Trident II D5 ballistic missile was first deployed, 1990, saw the beginning of the end of the missile’s primary mission. Even as the Soviet Union began to implode, the D5’s performance improvements were making the Trident submarine force the new backbone of the USA’s nuclear deterrent – and of Britain’s as well. To ensure that this capability was maintained at peak readiness and safety, the US Navy undertook a program in 2002 to replace aging components of the Trident II D5 missile called the D5 Life Extension (LE) Program. This article covers D5 LE, as well as support and production contracts associated with the American and British Trident missile fleets.

• D5 Life Extension Program
• Contracts and Key Events, 2005-Present [updated]
• Additional Readings
  Continue Reading… »

RAFO F-16Cs w. CFTs

Oman is located on the eastern Arabian peninsula next to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and across from Persia. It remains a very strategic country, controlling the Strait of Hormuz’ western bank, and providing an overwatch position for both the entrance to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean near Africa. The Royal Air Force of Oman (al-Quwwat al-Jawwiya al-Sultanat Oman) currently flies 12 F-16 Block 50 fighters: 8 F-16Cs and 4 F-16Ds, whose delivery began in 2005. They complement the RAFO’s 18 Jaguar strike aircraft, and 11 single-seat subsonic Hawk 203 light fighters. Sultan Qaboos’ air force is looking to replace its aging Jaguars, and has made inquiries about buying 4+ generation fighters like Eurofighters or even JAS-39 Gripens for this purpose.

A formal DSCA request for 18 more F-16s raised the possibility of a different approach, and that has now become a firm contract. But BAE has subsequently received an RFP for its Eurofighter, too…

• The Sultanate of Oman’s History, and its Fighter Fleet
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
  Continue Reading… »

Saudi M1A2

In July 2006 the US DSCA informed Congress [PDF] that the government of Saudi Arabia wished to purchase 58 M1A1 Abrams tanks, then upgrade these M1A1s, along with its existing 315 M1A2s, to create 373 M1A2S (Saudi) Abrams configuration main battle tanks. The sale will include kits, spare and repair parts, communications and support equipment, publications and technical data, personnel training and training equipment, contractor engineering and technical support services and other related elements of logistics support. The estimated cost is $2.9 billion.

This program also dovetails well with their recent $276 million Cooperative Logistics Supply Support Agreement, which ensures support and spare parts for their American-made land equipment. This sale and upgrade program will be executed in 3 phases, and has begun to attract contracts.

• M1A2S Program: Phases and Plans
• Contracts & Key Events [upgraded]
  Continue Reading… »

FSTA Concept

Back in 2005, Great Britain was considering a public-private partnership to buy, equip, and operate the RAF’s future aerial tanker fleet. The RAF would fly the 14 Airbus A330-MRTT aircraft on operational missions, and receive absolute preferential access to the planes. A private contractor would handle maintenance, receive payment from the RAF on a per-use basis – and operate them as passenger charter or transport aircraft when the RAF didn’t need them.

The deal became politically controversial, and negotiations on the 27-year, multi-billion pound deal charted new territory for both the government, and for private industry. Which may help to explain why a contract to move ahead on a “Private Financing Initiative” basis had yet to be issued, and procurement had yet to begin, over 7 years after the program began. In March 2008, however, Britain issued the world’s largest-ever Defence Private Finance Initiative (PFI) contract. This FOCUS Article describes the current British fleet, the aircraft they chose to replace them, how the new fleet will compare, the innovative deal structure they’ve chosen, and ongoing FSTA developments:

• RAF Tankers: The Current Fleet
• A330-200 MRTT: The RAF’s Future Strategic Tanker Aircraft
• UK FSTA: Program & Industrial Team [updated]
  • PFI: The Art of the Deal
• UK FSTA: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  Continue Reading… »

RAAF C-130J-30, flares

The C-130 Hercules remains one of the longest-running aerospace manufacturing programs of all time. Since 1956, over 40 models and variants have served as the tactical airlift backbone for over 50 nations. The C-130J looks similar, but the number of changes almost makes it a new aircraft. Those changes also created issues; the program has been the focus of a great deal of controversy in America – and even of a full program restructuring in 2006. Some early concerns from critics were put to rest when the C-130J demonstrated in-theater performance on the front lines that was a major improvement over its C-130E/H predecessors. A valid follow-on question might be: does it break the bottleneck limitations that have hobbled a number of multi-billion dollar US Army vehicle development programs?

C-130J customers now include Australia, Britain, Canada, Denmark, India, Israel, Iraq, Italy, Kuwait, Norway, Oman, Qatar, South Korea, Tunisia, and the United States. American C-130J purchases are taking place under both annual budgets and supplemental wartime funding, in order to replace tactical transport and special forces fleets that are flying old aircraft and in dire need of major repairs. This DID FOCUS Article describes the C-130J, examines the bottleneck issue, covers global developments for the C-130J program, and looks at present and emerging competitors:

• The (Private) Labors of Hercules: the C-130J Family
• The C-130J and the 20-ton Bottleneck
• Turbulent Flight: The C-130J Program
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources, incl. emerging competitors & Special Operations requirements
  Continue Reading… »

PAF F-16A drops Mk.82s

On June 28/06, the US DSCA notified Congress via a series of releases of its intention to provide Pakistan with a $5.1 billion Foreign Military Sales package to upgrade the F-16s that serve as the PAF’s top of the line fighters. Some of these items had been put on hold following the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan & Kashmir, but the request for 36 new F-16 Block 50/52s is now going ahead, along with new weapons, engine modifications, and upgrade kits for Pakistan’s older F-16 A/Bs. The buy went through, and was accompanied by the supply of 26 older F-16s from USAF surplus stocks.

These items are detailed below, along with controversies the proposed sales have created, and some of the conditions attached to the sale by the US government:

• Item 1: 36 New F-16 Block 50/52s – $3 billion
• Item 2: Weapons for the New F-16s – $650 Million
• Item 3: F-16A/B Mid-Life Update Modification Kits – $1.3 billion
• Item 4: F-16A/B Engine Modifications & UP/STAR – $151 Million
• Deal Updates and Progress [updated]
• Potential Controversies (July 2006)
• Additional Readings [updated]
  Continue Reading… »

Patriot PAC-2

It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Even though Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy, missile and nuclear proliferation is producing reactions. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to responses aimed at reducing that risk. That’s why arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities.

Gulf states recognize that even a lucky conventional missile could wreak havoc if it hit key oil-related infrastructure, or damaged the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence. The spread of nuclear weapons would change the calculus completely. A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary, PDF] believed that Iran’s nuclear program had stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel, were more skeptical. By 2010, that skepticism had spread to US intelligence, which repudiated an assessment that seems set to join the infamous 1962 NIE of no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1].

The Gulf states’ response to these developments covers a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

Into that good night

The 5th-generation F-22A Raptor fighter program has been the subject of fierce controversy, with advocates and detractors aplenty. On the one hand, the aircraft offers full stealth, revolutionary radar and sensor capabilities, dual air-air and air-ground SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) excellence, the ability to cruise above Mach 1 without afterburners, thrust-vectoring super-maneuverability… and a ridiculously lopsided kill record in exercises against the best American fighters.

On the other hand, critics charge that it’s too expensive, too limited, and cripples the USAF’s overall force structure. Meanwhile, close American allies like Australia, Japan and Israel, and other allies like Korea, were pressing the USA to abandon its “no export” policy. Most already fly F-15s, but several were interested in an export version of the F-22 in order to help them deal with advanced – and advancing – Russian-designed aircraft, air-to-air missiles, and surface-to-air missile systems. That would have broadened the F-22 fleet in several important ways, but the US political system would not or could not respond.

This DID FOCUS Article covers both sides of the F-22 controversies in the USA and abroad, and tracks ongoing contracts. It has been restored to full public access, as the F-22 program of record winds down to its end.

• The F-22 Raptor: Key Capabilities
  • Raptor, Redux: Upgrading the Fleet
• The F-22 Raptor: Criticisms & Controversies
• F-22 Raptor: Program
• F-22 Raptor: Key Events
  • Events: 2010-2012
  • Events: 2006-2009
  • Events: Pre-2006
• F-22 Raptor: Contracts & Production [updated]
  • FY 2010-2012
  • FY 2006-2009
  • Pre-FY 2006
• Additional Readings & Sources: Key Components, Program, Official Reports, Controversies & Events
  Continue Reading… »

SSBN Vanguard Class

Britain has announced a GBP 350 million (about $560M), 42 month contract for a 4th “complex overhaul” of its 15,000t SSBN Vanguard Class nuclear missile submarines. HMS Vengeance will require about 2.5 million man-hours of work, including installation of a new Mk.2 nuclear reactor core. As of March 2/12, the submarine was at Devonport ready to dock down, and will remain in dry dock until flood-up in late 2014.

HMS Vengeance is the last of the UK’s 4 SSBNs submarines to undergo the Long Overhaul Period and Refuel (LOP-R). HMS Vigilant has just completed hers, and departed for the sea on March 27/12. Vengeance may even mark the UK’s last-ever reactor refueling contract, as the Mk.2 reactor that powers Britain’s refitted Vanguards and new Astute Class fast attack boats never needs mid-life refueling. Vengeance’s work will reach far beyond her reactor, however…

Scorpene cutaway

In 2005, India confirmed that it would buy 6 Franco-Spanish Scorpene diesel submarines, with an option for 6 more and extensive technology transfer agreements. The Scorpene deal had simmered on the back-burner for several years, before it became one of India’s largest-ever partnerships with France. DID reported that a deal was “close” as far back as 2004, but nothing was finalized until late 2005. The cost had been subject to varying estimates over the life of those multi-year negotiations, as well as project overruns; the final figure for the first 6 boats is now generally accepted as being about $4 billion.

India’s submarine fleet currently consists of 16 submarines, about 13 of which are operational. Its Foxtrot Class boats can no longer be counted on, and its U209 derivatives from HDW are unlikely to last beyond 2015. With Pakistan acquiring modern submarines, and Chinese submarine building exploding, serious thought to India’s future submarine fleet became an obvious priority. This DID FOCUS article covers the Scorpene deal and its structure, adds key contracts and new developments, and offers insights into the larger naval picture beyond India.

• India’s New Submarines: The Deal [updated]
  • Schedule, Cost & Plans
  • Timeline & Industrial Arrangements
• The Scorpene Class
  • The AIP Option
• Scorpene Project: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Appendix A: India’s Current Submarine Force, and Rival Navies
• Appendix B: A Final, Nuclear Note
• Appendix C: Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
  Continue Reading… »