Patriot PAC-2
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A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the infamous NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1]. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create havoc in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

In June 2008, over $10 billion worth of December 2007 Patriot missile upgrade requests in the UAE and Kuwait shone a spotlight on the region’s new defense priorities. In December 2008, a multi-billion dollar Patriot missile contract from the UAE seemed to lock in that shift, and Kuwait is proceeding with upgrades to its own Patriot systems. Upgrades that have led to recent contracts, and sales requests…

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Buffalo, arrivé
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The French DGA procurement agency recently announced [in French] that its 2009 urgences operations (UO, formerly “crash programs”) budget doubled from EUR 131 million in 2008 to EUR 260 million in 2009. This change is in line with a broader international trend, as front-line operations in Afghanistan and beyond reveal limitations in existing equipment, as well as new equipment needs. One change from 2008 was an increased emphasis on naval systems, as 4 of 36 UO programs focused on counter-piracy efforts.

Key 2009 programs included 32 armoring kits for France’s Puma and Cougar medium helicopters, 200 vehicle up-armoring kits, 150 IED jammers, 5 Buffalo mine-clearing vehicles, 60 RWS remote-control turrets for vehicles, The Venus project for on-the-move communication with the Syracuse satellite system, 10 SATCOM on-the-move stations, Integration of America’s Remote Operational Video Enhanced Receiver (ROVER) ground-to-air communications for 25 Mirage 2000 fighters, and retrofitted IRST optical systems for existing French frigates that allow long-range passive scan and identification of naval targets.

F-35A: incoming…
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The F-35 Lightning II is a major multinational program which is intended to produce an “affordably stealthy” multi-role strike fighter that will have three variants: the F-35A conventional version for the US Air Force et. al.; the F-35B Short Take-Off, Vertical Landing for the US Marines, British Royal Navy, et. al.; and the F-35C conventional carrier-launched version for the US Navy. The aircraft is named after Lockheed’s famous WW2 P-38 Lightning, and the Mach 2, stacked-engine English Electric (now BAE) Lightning jet. System development partners included The USA & Britain (Tier 1), Italy and the Netherlands (Tier 2), and Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Turkey (Tier 3), with Singapore and Israel as “Security Cooperation Partners.” Now the challenge is agreeing on production phase membership and arrangements, to be followed by initial purchase commitments around 2008-2009.

This updated article has expanded to feature more detail regarding the $300 billion F-35 program, including other contracts as well as notable events. New material is highlighted by putting it in green type. Recent news include an investigation by the Fort Worth Star-Telegram into JET’s conclusions regarding program delays, Lockheed Martin’s response, and a Rolls Royce contract for production LiftSystem engine modules…

• The F-35 Family of Aircraft (i.e. “Continue reading…”)
• F-35 Program: Production Timelines & Structure
• F-35 Program: Controversies and Competitions
• F-35 Program: Events & Developments, CY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: System Development & Production Contracts, FY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: Ancillary and Sub-contracts, FY 2009 – 2010 [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
  
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USMC KC-130J
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Special Operations Command’s AC-130H/U gunships can lay down withering hails of accurate fire, up to and including 105mm howitzer shells, in order to support ground troops.

The Marines wanted heavy aircraft that could support their Leathernecks on the ground. The bad news was that the the Corps could field about 45 KC-130J aerial tankers for the price of a 12-plane AC-130J squadron, and lighter options like the AC-27J “Stinger II” would probably tally similar costs once R&D dollars were factored in. Could the Marines change tack, and offer a modular weapon package that would let them arm their existing tankers as needed? Could armed KC-130Js offer limited fire support, while loitering over the battlefield and using their unique speed range to refuel helicopters and fast jets alike? The Harvest Hawk program aims to do just that. It would give the USMC a far less capable convertible gunship option for Afghanistan, at a cost that’s about 2 orders of magnitude below a dedicated gunship fleet.

Unsurprisingly, the next service to show interest in this concept was SOCOM itself. The latest developments to this article (which will soon become DII subscriber content) include added background, and ammunition orders for SOCOM’s similar MC-130Ws…

• Gunships R Us: Equipping The Hercs [updated]
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings and Sources
  
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Adm. Gorshkov: Before.
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This free-to-view DID Spotlight article offers an in-depth look at India’s troubled attempt to convert and field a full-size aircraft carrier, before time and wear force it to retire its existing naval aviation and ships.

Right now, there are 2 major concerns in India. One is slipping timelines. INS Viraat was scheduled to retire in 2009. It’s only semi-operational, and nearing the limits of its mechanical life, even as shortages of flyable Sea Harrier fighters are creating issues of their own. Meanwhile, the delivery date for India’s locally-built 37,000t escort carrier project appears to be slipping to 2015 or so. This leaves India’s Navy with a serious scheduling problem, and no significant carrier force.

The other concern involves Vikramaditya’s 3-fold cost increase, including worries that Russia will raise it rates yet again once India is deeper into the commitment trap. The carrier purchase has now become the subject of high level diplomacy, involving a shipyard that can’t even execute on commercial contracts. An agreement in principle reportedly exists, but negotiations that began in 2007 have yet to lead to a revised contract.

Recent Russian demands have continued to raise the price, even as advance work related to India’s new MiG-29K naval fighters continues. The latest news is a report that India is expressing interest in buying one of Britain’s 65,000t CVF carriers, as negotiations with Russia remain stalled…

• Waiting for Gorshkov – A History
• Gorshkov-Vikramaditya: Aerial Complement
• INS Vikramaditya: Updates & Contracts [updated]
• Appendix A: Additional Readings – Equipment Profiles
• Appendix B: Additional Readings – Related Developments
  
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IRST: B-2, ICU
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The F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet Block IIs are just beginning to enter service, with significantly improved AN/APG-79 AESA radars and other electronic upgrades. Recent years have seen another spreading improvement within global fighter fleets, however: Infa-Red Search & Track (IRST) systems that provide long range thermal imaging against air and ground targets. Most of these deployments have been on Russian (MiG-29 family, SU-30 family) and European (Eurofighter, Rafale) fighters, or special American exports (UAE’s F-16E/F Block 60s, F-15K/SG).

That absence puts American fighters behind an important curve. This IRST approach can defeat radar stealth in some instances, by focusing on engine exhaust or on the friction of the aircraft as it powers through the atmosphere. As F-14 pilots will recall, long range electro-optics also offer positive identification, conferring the ability to use a plane’s missiles to their full ranges, without creating friendly fire concerns. Best of all, IRST offers a passive way to locate and target enemy aircraft – one that won’t trigger radar warning receivers. When coupled with medium-range IR missiles like some Russian AA-10 variants, France’s MICA-IR, or even future versions of AMRAAM NCADE, an IRST system offers a fighter both an extra set of medium-range eyes, and a stealthy air-to-air combat weapon.

A program is beginning that would give American “teen series” fighters this capability, albeit in a somewhat unusual way…

• Tanks for the View: The IRST + Fuel Solution
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
  
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AIM-120C from F-22A
(click for test missile zoom)

Raytheon’s AMRAAM has become the world market leader for medium range air-to-air missiles. It was designed with the lessons of Vietnam in mind, and of local air combat exercises like ACEVAL and Red Flag.

One of the key lessons learned from Vietnam was that a fighter would be likely to encounter multiple enemies, and would need to launch and guide several missiles at once in order to ensure its survival. This had not been possible with the AIM-7 Sparrow, a “semi-active radar homing” missile which required a constant radar lock on one target. To make matters worse, enemy fighters were capable of launching missiles of their own. Pilots who weren’t free to maneuver after launch would often be forced to “break lock,” or be killed – sometimes even by a short-range missile fired during the last phases of their enemy’s approach. Since fighters that could carry radar-guided missiles like the AIM-7 tended to be larger and more expensive, and the Soviets were known to have far more fighters overall, this was not a good trade.

Enter AMRAAM – the AIM-120 Advanced, Medium-Range Air to Air Missile. This DID FOCUS article covers successive generations of AMRAAM missiles, international contracts and key events from 2006 onward, and even some of its emerging competitors. New materials will be highlighted in green type. The most recent additions involve US government approval for 3 Middle East allies to buy AMRAAMs, as well as a request by Chile to buy $145 million worth of AMRAAMs and accessories…

• Some MRAAM History, and AMRAAM’s Design Approach
• AMRAAM: Versions & Derivatives
• AMRAAM’s International Competitors
• AMRAAM: Contracts & Key Events, FY 2006-Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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A-10 over Germany
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The Precision Engagement modification is the largest single upgrade effort ever undertaken for the USA’s unique A-10 “Warthog” close air support aircraft fleet. While existing A/OA-10 aircraft continue to outperform technology-packed rivals on the battlefield, this set of upgrades is expected to make them more flexible, and help keep the aircraft current until the fleet’s planned phase-out in 2028. When complete, A-10C PE will give USAF A-10s precision strike capability sooner than planned, combining multiple upgrade requirements into one time and money-saving program, rather than executing them as standalone projects. Indeed, the USAF accelerated the PE program by 9 months as a result of its experiences in Operation Iraqi Freedom.

This is DID’s FOCUS Article for the PE program, and for other modifications to the A-10 fleet. It covers the A-10’s battlefield performance and advantages, the elements of the PE program, other planned modifications, related refurbishment efforts to keep the fleet in the air, and the contracts that have been issued each step of the way.

In the latest updates, the A-10C program’s $2 billion re-winging effort became a higher priority, as wing cracking became a problem for the entire A-10 fleet. Now a longer-term $1.7 billion general maintenance contract for the fleet has been issued to 3 firms, per new defense acquisition rules, and contracts are begining to flow…

• A/OA-10 Thunderbolt II: Experiences on the Ground
• The A/OA-10 Precision Engagement Modification Program
• A-10 Fleet: Other Planned Improvements
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
  Continue Reading… »

67% of the fleet
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The prime missions of the new DDG-1000 Zumwalt Class destroyer are to provide naval gunfire support and next-generation air defense in near-shore areas where other large ships hesitate to tread, possibly even as the anchor for an action group of stealthy Littoral Combat Ships and submarines. The estimated 14,500t (cruiser sized) Zumwalt Class will be fully multi-role, however, with undersea warfare, anti-ship, and long-range surface attack roles.

That makes the DDG-1000 suitable or another role – as a “hidden ace card,” using its overall stealth to create uncertainty for enemy forces. At over $3 billion per ship for construction alone, however, the program faced significant obstacles if it wanted to avoid fulfilling former Secretary of the Navy Donald Winter’s fears for the fleet.

True, or False?
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DID’s FOCUS Article for the DDG-1000 program covers the new ships’ capabilities and technologies, key controversies, associated contracts and costs, and related background resources. From the outset, DID has noted that the Zumwalt Class might face the same fate as the ultra-sophisticated, ultra-expensive SSN-21 Seawolf Class submarines. That appears to have come true, with news of the program’s cancellation at 3 ships. Or will it be 2?

The latest news involves more funds to finish the ship’s computing backbone, which has been identified as a concern in recent GAO reports…

• Zumwalt Class: Program and Participants (i.e. “Continue reading…”)
• DDG-1000 Key Technologies and Features
• DDG-1000 Issues and Controversies
• Zumwalt Class: Contracts and Key Events
  • FY 2009 [updated]
  • FY 2008
  • FY 2007
  • FY 2006
  • FY 2005
  • FY 1998 through 2004
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
  Continue Reading… »

Barak launch
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Despite a development timeline measured in decades, India’s indigenous “Akash” and “Trishul” programs for surface to air missiles have failed to inspire full confidence. Trishul was eventually cancelled entirely, and Akash is now slated for limited deployment only. India still needed advanced SAMs to equip its navy and army, however, and decided to try to duplicate the success of the Russian partnership that had fielded the excellent PJ-10 BrahMos supersonic cruise missile.

In February 2006, therefore, Israel and India signed a joint development agreement to create a new Barak-NG medium shipborne air defense missile, as an evolution of the Barak-1 system in service with both navies. In July 2007 the counterpart MR-SAM project began moving forward, aiming to develop a medium range SAM for use with India’s land forces. Both missiles would now be called Barak-8. In between, “India to Buy Israeli “SPYDER” Mobile Air Defense System” covered India’s move to begin buying mobile, short-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems for its army, based on the Python and Derby air-to-air missiles in service with its air force and naval aircraft.

These projects offer India a way forward to address its critical air defense weaknesses, and upgrade “protection of vital and strategic ground assets and area air defence.” In Israel, the Barak-8 is slated to equip its next-generation frigates, and may find its way to other roles. Beyond those 2 countries, export prospects beckon for a missile that may offer a value-priced alternative to the popular Standard-2 and Aster-15. This DID FOCUS article will cover the Barak-8 pograms in India, Israel, and beyond. The latest development involves additional reports that a firm $1+ billion contract has been signed…

• The Barak, and Barak-8 [NEW]
• India’s Barak Programs [updated]
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
  Continue Reading… »