Lower tier:
Indian Do-228 MPA

India’s growing power is creating growing naval responsibility around the Indian Ocean, from the strategic chokepoint and shipping channel represented by Indonesia’s Straits of Malacca in the east, to anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia and basing agreements with Madagascar in the west. Hence the January 2009 deal for 8-16 of Boeing’s 737-derived P-8i Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, which will replace Russian-built TU-142’s as India’s long-range patrol aircraft.

Closer to home, however, India has its own long coastline to patrol, and nations like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan that represent existing or potential trouble spots along its borders. The P-8i will work in those problem areas, but less-expensive and shorter-range aircraft will be needed to supplement their coverage – and to replace India’s aging Britten-Norman Islanders. Inshore, new Dornier Do-228NG aircraft and UAVs will play a role, and India’s Israeli-built Searcher and Heron UAVs are already part of the mix. In between, medium sized manned aircraft must fill their own niches in India’s Navy and its Coast Guard. In January 2009, the wheels began turning on pair of follow-on buys covering short and medium range manned aircraft for India’s Navy and Coast Guard. That effort stalled out, but has now restarted:

• India’s MRMR and MMP Competitions [updated]
  • MRMR & MMP: Rumored Contenders [updated]
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
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Scorpene cutaway

In 2005, India confirmed that it would buy 6 Franco-Spanish Scorpene diesel submarines, with an option for 6 more and extensive technology transfer agreements. The Scorpene deal had simmered on the back-burner for several years, before it became one of India’s largest-ever partnerships with France. DID reported that a deal was “close” as far back as 2004, but nothing was finalized until late 2005. The cost had been subject to varying estimates over the life of those multi-year negotiations, as well as project overruns; the final figure for the first 6 boats is now generally accepted as being about $4 billion.

India’s submarine fleet currently consists of 16 submarines, about 13 of which are operational. Its Foxtrot Class boats can no longer be counted on, and its U209 derivatives from HDW are unlikely to last beyond 2015. With Pakistan acquiring modern submarines, and Chinese submarine building exploding, serious thought to India’s future submarine fleet became an obvious priority. This DID FOCUS article covers the Scorpene deal and its structure, adds key contracts and new developments, and offers insights into the larger naval picture beyond India.

• India’s New Submarines: The Deal [updated]
  • Schedule, Cost & Plans
  • Timeline & Industrial Arrangements
• The Scorpene Class
  • The AIP Option
• Scorpene Project: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Appendix A: India’s Current Submarine Force, and Rival Navies
• Appendix B: A Final, Nuclear Note
• Appendix C: Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
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Austal Team
Trimaran LCS Design
(click to enlarge)

Exploit simplicity, numbers, the pace of technology development in electronics and robotics, and fast reconfiguration. That was the US Navy’s idea for the low-end backbone of its future surface combatant fleet. Inspired by successful experiments like Denmark’s Standard Flex ships, the US Navy’s $35+ billion “Littoral Combat Ship” program was intended to create a new generation of affordable surface combatants that could operate in dangerous shallow and near-shore environments, while remaining affordable and capable throughout their lifetimes.

It hasn’t worked that way. In practice, what the Navy wanted, the capabilities needed to perform primary naval missions, and what could be delivered for the sums available, have proven nearly irreconcilable. The LCS program has changed its fundamental acquisition plan 4 times since 2005, and canceled contracts with both competing teams during this period, without escaping any of its fundamental issues. This public-access FOCUS article offer a wealth of research material, alongside looks at the LCS program’s designs, industry teams procurement plans, military controversies, budgets and contracts:

• LCS: Concept & Needs
  • LCS: Designs & Teams
  • LCS Solution = Standard Equipment + Mission Modules [updated]
• LCS: Controversies & Cautions
• The LCS Program
  • LCS Ship Roster
  • LCS: Export Potential?
• LCS: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• LCS Ancillaries: Mission Module & Weapon Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
• Appendix A: LCS’ Yo-Yoing Budgets and Program Structure [updated]
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SU-35 flight, 2008

After a long hiatus in major arms purchases, and an equally long fall from its status as an ultra-modern Soviet arms client, Libya was among the countries discussed by Forecast International in its review of African defense market opportunities.

Libya’s military has traditionally been Soviet supplied, alongside some equipment from France and Brazil. The demise of the Soviet Union, the 1990s drop in oil prices, and Libya’s pariah status all combined to choke military modernization – but Libya’s new political direction, and the rise in oil prices, were beginning to change that. Widespread reports emerged in 2007 that France and Libya had signed a Memorandum of Understanding covering arms deals worth up to EUR 4.5 billion, including the first foreign sale of the Rafale fighter. Those reports weren’t followed by contract announcements – but 2009 reports and 2010 contracts showed that Russia was willing to fight to keep its old customer. Now, the question is where all of old the players fit in the new Libya, after Gadaffi’s fall:

• A Change in Libya [updated]
  • Green Shoots in Libya
  • A Spring Civil War, and Aftermath
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
• Appendix A: The French Connection?

Seafox Mk.II

Rising tensions in the Persian Gulf, coupling increasingly bellicose actions by Iran with pointed American warnings, have left international navies thinking hard about how to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for oil traffic. Naval mines, which can be laid by submarines or boats, remain one of the most difficult and inconvenient threats to counter. That was true during the last set of armed clashes between the USA and Iran in the 1980s. It remains true, and the USA has weakened its position by retiring its modern Osprey Class minehunter ships. Some are available for reactivation in an emergency, but their place was supposed to be taken by the MH-60S helicopter’s Airborne Mine Counter-Measures (AMCM) system.

The USA is looking to bolster its defenses in the Straits, but AMCM isn’t quite ready yet. That leaves them looking elsewhere for urgent operational buys. While countries like China counter mines using unmanned ships, the US Navy is turning toward a widely-bought German UUV…

FAC Kfir C7
(click to view larger)

Colombia’s narco-terrorist FARC army has reportedly lost some of its military shine recently, thanks to years of unswerving pressure from the Colombian army. Much of that pressure has been led by the popular President Uribe, who has apparently ruled out a bid for constitutional amendments and an attempt at a 3rd term of office. Before his 2010 exit, however, a special tax levied in 2006 is set to finance about $4 billion worth of military hardware, and add stronger backing to those military gains.

Colombia’s El Tiempo newspaper reports that the deals are meant to solidify and modernize the military, and will include a wide variety of equipment from American, French, German, Israeli, and Russian suppliers. Key deliveries have now begun.

TU-142: headed out

India’s fleet of Soviet-era maritime patrol aircraft has been upgraded, but it needs to be replaced. Indian naval responsibilities are growing, and the 2008 terrorist atrocities in Mumbai made it crystal-clear that control of their coasts was a necessity. Fortunately, they already had a competition underway. In December 2005, after an attempted buy of Lockheed Martin P-3s fell through, India’s navy had floated an RFP for at least 8 new sea control aircraft. Bids from a variety of contenders, including Lockheed Martin, were submitted in April 2007. Subsequent statements by India’s Admiral Prakash suggested that they could be looking for as many as 30 aircraft by 2020.

The plan had been for price negotiations to be completed in 2007, with first deliveries to commence within 48 months. India’s Ministry of Defence has extreme problems with announced schedules, but their existing fleet was wearing out, international requests for India’s maritime patrol help are rising, and Mumbai’s events provided an extra shove. By January 2009, India had picked its aircraft: the 737-derivative P-8i Neptune, a variant of the P-8A that’s readying for service as the P-3’s successor within the US Navy. DID discusses the geopolitical drivers, the current fleet, the known competitors, Boeing’s P-8i, and key contracts and events:

• With Growing Naval Power Comes Growing Naval Responsibility [updated]
• P-8i: Program Timeline & Industrial Participants [updated]
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Appendix A: The Competitors
• Appendix B: Additional Readings
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• Latest on JSF: Reuters and Bloomberg report that Leon Panetta is about to announce that the F-35-B is off probation; Canadian industrial participation; 1st night flight; 3rd F-35B delivered; F-35C tail hook redesign.

• Israel’s IDF now believes that unrest in Syria has allowed Hezbollah to seize SA-8/ 9K33 vehicle-mounted surface-air missiles. They’re worried that Syria’s large chemical arsenal could also be vulnerable.

• K-Street Washington lobbyists see promise in the 2012 retirees, but how’s this for a blunt assessment? “Republicans are bonds. Dems are the options you play with the last 20 percent of your money…”

• The US Coast Guard is getting more and more interested in underwater inspection & surveillance. Their Research & Development Center is currently evaluating an advanced Underwater Imaging System (UIS) from CodaOctopus.
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Scarborough, Trials

As 2011 came to a close, Brazil’s buy of 3 in-stock Offshore Patrol Vessels from BAE, with an option to license-build 5 more, has the potential to cast wide ripples.

Brazil has very extensive coastal responsibilities, a sizable Marine Corps, and a Navy whose frigates are either British designs, or former British ships. That navy is expanding, as Brazil moves to protect key assets like its deep-water oil production, but British shipbuilders will face stiff competition. Other key Brazilian suppliers like France’s DCNS will be bidding, alongside naval shipbuilders around the world. The OPV purchase is certainly another piece of the naval puzzle for Brazil, alongside its future submarines. Is it also another piece of the puzzle for BAE?

• The Ships
• Contracts & Key Events
• Additional Readings
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Canberra concept

In May of 2006 the Royal Australian Navy announced its decision to expand its naval expeditionary capabilities. HMAS Manoora and Kanimbla would be replaced with substantially larger and more capable modern designs, featuring strong air support. Navantia and Tenix offered a 27,000t Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD) design that resembled the Strategic Projection Ship (Buque de Proyeccion Estrategica) under construction for the Spanish Navy. The DCNS-Thales Australia team, meanwhile, proposed a variation of the 21,300t Mistral Class that is serving successfully with the French Navy.

Navantia’s larger design eventually won, giving the Spanish firm an A$11 billion clean sweep of Australia’s “Air Warfare Destroyer” and LHD programs. These 5 ships will be the core of Australia’s future surface navy. The LHDs will be able to serve as amphibious landing ships, helicopter carriers, floating HQs and medical facilities for humanitarian assistance, and launching pads for UAVs or even short/vertical takeoff fighters:

• Winner: The Navantia-Tenix LHD
• Program & Construction Plans [updated]
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
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