LAV-III: stuck
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In late November 2008, Canada’s Department of National Defence (DND) announced its intention to combine 3 programs into one general set of upgrades to its armored vehicle fleets. The C$ 5 billion (about $4.3 billion) meta-program would include (1) a “close combat vehicle,” in order to perform as a tracked Infantry Fighting Vehicle or Armored Personnel Carrier alongside Canada’s new Leopard 2A6 tanks; (2) a new “Tactical Armored Patrol Vehicle”; and (3) upgrades the existing LAV-III wheeled APC fleet. In July 2009, A 4th “FME” project was added to field dedicated Armored Engineering Vehicles based on the Leopard 2, along with engineering-related attachments for Canada’s new Leopard 2 tanks.

The “Close Combat Vehicle” appears to be the most urgent purchase, but the stated procurement approach isn’t structured to deliver urgency. As things stand, all contracts are scheduled to take effect after Canada is slated to end its Afghan mission. The LAV-IIIs showed limitations in key terrain within Afghanistan, and keeping them in the field requires a lot of maintenance. Canada’s M113 tracked APCs have been used successfully as a supplement, but the Canadians appear to be leaning toward a heavier vehicle for their future CCV:

• The Close Combat Vehicle [updated]
  • Tracked Options
  • Wheeled Options
• The Tactical Armored Patrol Vehicle (TAPV)
• LAV-IIIs, and the RESET/RECAP Imperative
• Force Mobility Enhancement: Heavy Engineering
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
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Northrop Grumman’s E-2C Hawkeye is a carrier-capable “mini-AWACS” aircraft, designed to give long-range warning of incoming aerial threats. Secondary roles include strike command and control, land and maritime surveillance, search and rescue, communications relay, and even civil air traffic control during emergencies. E-2C Hawkeyes began replacing previous Hawkeye versions in 1973; they fly from USN and French carriers, from land bases in the militaries of Egypt, Japan, Mexico, Singapore, and Taiwan; and in a drug interdiction role for the US Naval Reserve. Over 200 Hawkeyes have been produced.

The $17.5 billion E-2D Advanced Hawkeye program aims to build 75 new aircraft with significant radar, engine, and electronics upgrades in order to deal with a world of stealthier cruise missiles, saturation attacks, and a growing need for ground surveillance as well as aerial scans. It looks a lot like the last generation E-2C Hawkeye 2000 upgrade on the outside – but inside, and even outside to some extent, it’s a whole new aircraft.

• From E-2A Hawkeye to the E-2D
• E-2D Advanced Hawkeye: Program
  • American Budgets
  • Industrial Partners
• E-2D Advanced Hawkeye: Contracts & Key Events, Full History [updated]
• Additional Readings
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• Q1 results are in for L-3 Communications, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. They are all showing more topline resilience than Northrop Grumman. Quick summary table of their sales and backlog at the bottom of this entry.

• Lockheed Martin’s CEO Bob Stevens will retire and be replaced by current President and COO Christopher Kubasik effective January 1, 2013. Kubasik is an alumnus from the Defense Acquisition University.

• US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta leaned on Brazil in support of Boeing’s F/A-18s for the ongoing F-X2 competition. Panetta discussed technology transfers with his counterpart Celso Amorim. Dassault is working the local cooperation angle too [in French].
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British E-3 Sentry

Britain’s E-3D Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) is based on Boeing’s 707 family, and its ability to see and direct air operations within hundreds of miles provides vital strategic support. Since its introduction in 1992, the RAF’s fleet of 7 E-3s has been used in every major UK military operation, including Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya.

That availability depends on effective maintenance, and the UK MoD has a new approach. It’s meant to give them more flyable planes, while costing less money. The new Sentry Whole Life Support Program (WLSP) began in August 2005, when Northrop Grumman won a 20-year, GBP 665 million (then $1.2 billion) contract. Under that contract, NGC’s team is providing aircraft maintenance and design-engineering support services through 2025, in order to improve availability and reduce overall ownership costs. As is typical of recent British contracts, the government has chosen a public-private partnership founded on an unusual military combination: fixed base costs, and guaranteed time in-service percentages for the planes.

• The Contract & Industry Team [updated]
• UK E-3D WLSP [updated]
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Current: S30 Tupi
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Brazil’s submarines are seen as a key part of the country’s new national armaments and defense strategy, which was released on Dec 18/08. It places a higher priority on protection of Brazil’s offshore energy reserves, and sees submarines as key players in that effort. The experience of the 1982 Falklands War, in which Argentina’s entire fleet was kept in port by Britain’s nuclear fast attack boat HMS Conqueror, is often cited as instructive.

In 2008, Brazil and France signed an agreement to build 4 diesel-electric submarines (SSK), and provide assistance in developing and fielding the non-nuclear parts of 1 nuclear fast attack submarine (SSN). Key specifics, such as the presence or absence of SSK Air Independent Propulsion technologies, have yet to be made public, but the terms of the agreement leave the possibility open. Reports regarding the submarine deal’s value have varied, but the budget is now set at almost EUR 7 billion. Financing now appears to be in place, and recent releases explain the budgets, the timing, and some of the key players in Brazil’s Prosub program:

• The Boats
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
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Malaysian Scorpene

The Franco-Spanish Scorpene diesel-electric attack submarine competes on the global market against an array of competitors, foremost of which is ThyssenKrupp HDW’s U209/212/214 family. In June 2002, the Malaysian government signed a EUR 1 billion contract with Armaris (now DCNS) and Spanish naval shipbuilder Izar (now Navantia) for 2 SSK Scorpenes and associated support and training. Both submarines have been delivered to Malaysia, though there have been some technical problems.

Within Malaysia, the sale has been compromised by an ongoing trial and set of legal actions around the public kidnapping and private execution of Mongolian modeling student, translator, and paramour Altantuya Shaariibuu. Full and impartial accountability for public figures is not a prominent feature of Malaysian justice, but French Journalist Arnaud Dubus added to the pressure with a March 5/09 report in France’s Liberation, “Un cadavre très dérangeant: L’étrange affaire du meurtre d’une interprète mongole qui gène le pouvoir en Malaisie” (Page 30-31). It named very prominent names, offers details, and reveals the contents of documents that Malaysian courts have refused to admit…

CC-115, BC coast

The USA is not the only country whose SAR (search and rescue) aircraft program is having a hard go of it lately. In 2004, Canada announced a program to replace its aging DHC-5 (CC-115) Buffalo (West Coast) and CC-130E/H Hercules (East Coast) search-and-rescue planes with at least 15 new aircraft. Some of the Canadian Forces’ CC-130s have already been grounded after flying 40,000 – 50,000 hours, and a contract has been signed for C-130J replacements.

The first SAR aircraft was to be delivered in 2006, with all deliveries complete by 2009. The competitors were a familiar duo: the Alenia C-27J Spartan with its speed advantage and C-130J compatibility, vs. the EADS-CASA C-295M with its longer fuselage and lower operating costs. The competition was put on hold, but 2009 looks set bring in a new C$ 3 billion RFP, with new competitors added to the mix. Or will it be a fixed single-choice process instead, per media reports?

Further reports indicate it may be a 3rd option: a rigged process, designed to look like a contest. The latest “Industry Day” did little to quell those suspicions, as the program was formally re-launched:

• Canada’s SAR Challenge
• The “Competitors” [updated]
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
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• US Navy Vice Adm. Mark Harnitchek, Director of the Defense Logistics Agency since November 2011, published his revised 2012 guidance [PDF] that conveniently highlights where the changes are. Among them, improved support for reset and force drawdown processes in Afghanistan starts with optimized use of the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a necessity pointed out on DID just two days ago. Airlift through the NDN (dubbed Northern Distribution Nightmare by Foreign Policy – see also this WaPo map which was drawn before options like use of the Ulyanovsk Russian airport were discussed) is way more expensive than using Pakistan’s GLOC (Ground Lines of Communication) and Karachi port. As in, as much as 3 to 5 times more expensive to ship out about 50,000 vehicles.

• As a side note, when USMC Lieutenant General Frank A. Panter, Jr. discussed options at a recent HASC hearing, he never said Indian but rather NDN, contrarily to bad transcripts floated in the Indian press. How would India even make sense if you glance at a map? It beats us too.

• The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission published a report [PDF] on indigenous weapons development in China’s military modernization. They conclude that many analysts have let themselves being misled and blindsided by trends from past decades that no longer apply. “U.S. analysts and policymakers should expect to see continued advancements in the ability of the PRC to produce modern weapons platforms, and an attendant increase in the operational capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army.”
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Paveway-IV components
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In 2003, Raytheon UK operation won the GBP 120 million pound contract to develop and produce Paveway IV, beating Boeing’s INS/GPS guided JDAM. The GPS/INS and laser-guided 500-pound bombs are a British project, and will add a number of other enhancements, including longer range than previous Paveway versions.

The British military had wanted to deploy Raytheon’s latest Paveway IV bombs in Afghanistan by September 2007, on board its newly-upgraded Harrier GR9 aircraft. Unfortunately, testing problems with Thales UK’s Aurora fuze removed that option. The MoD found a way to deploy the smart bombs with lesser capabilities by December 2007, and eventually deployed full Paveway IVs on its Harriers in Afghanistan. The weapon is now ready for use with its Tordano GR4 strike aircraft, which are replacing the Harriers, and is being qualified on the RAF’s Eurofighters:

• Paveway IV: Capabilities and Challenges [updated]
• Paveway IV: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
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Scorpene cutaway

In 2005, India confirmed that it would buy 6 Franco-Spanish Scorpene diesel submarines, with an option for 6 more and extensive technology transfer agreements. The Scorpene deal had simmered on the back-burner for several years, before it became one of India’s largest-ever partnerships with France. DID reported that a deal was “close” as far back as 2004, but nothing was finalized until late 2005. The cost had been subject to varying estimates over the life of those multi-year negotiations, as well as project overruns; the final figure for the first 6 boats is now generally accepted as being about $4 billion.

India’s submarine fleet currently consists of 16 submarines, about 13 of which are operational. Its Foxtrot Class boats can no longer be counted on, and its U209 derivatives from HDW are unlikely to last beyond 2015. With Pakistan acquiring modern submarines, and Chinese submarine building exploding, serious thought to India’s future submarine fleet became an obvious priority. This DID FOCUS article covers the Scorpene deal and its structure, adds key contracts and new developments, and offers insights into the larger naval picture beyond India.

• India’s New Submarines: The Deal [updated]
  • Schedule, Cost & Plans
  • Timeline & Industrial Arrangements
• The Scorpene Class
  • The AIP Option
• Scorpene Project: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Appendix A: India’s Current Submarine Force, and Rival Navies
• Appendix B: A Final, Nuclear Note
• Appendix C: Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
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