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Korea’s F-X Multi-Role Fighter Buys: Phases 2 & 3

RFP out; Requirements changes both favor and disfavor F-35; competitive analysis. (Feb 7/12)

F-15K Past, Now, Future
F-15K Poster: apropos?

The ROKAF (Republic of Korea Air Force) originally planned to buy 120 advanced, high-end fighters as its next-generation platform, in order to replace its existing fleet of F-4 Phantom IIs and other aircraft. So far, it has bought 60 fighters in 2 phases. Back in 2002, the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) selected the F-15K advanced derivative of the F-15E Strike Eagle for its Next Generation Fighter Program, and bought 40. In 2008, a 2nd contract was signed for 20 more F-15ks, with slight modifications.

Now the 3rd phase looms, and the question is whether it will be a variant of their existing fleet, or something new. While the DAPA procurement agency dreamed of developing their own “5th generation” aircraft for Phase 3, reality eventually had its say. Now, foreign manufacturers are offering the ROKAF a number of options…

Oman Looks to Replace Its Jaguar Jets

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RFP to BAE/ Eurofghter. (Jan 23/12)
Omani F-16Cs
RAFO F-16Cs w. CFTs

Oman is location on the eastern Arabian peninsula next to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and across from Persia. It remains a very strategic country, controlling the Strait of Hormuz’s western bank, and providing an overwatch position for both the entrance to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean near Africa. The Royal Air Force of Oman (al-Quwwat al-Jawwiya al-Sultanat Oman) currently flies 12 F-16 Block 50 fighters: 8 F-16Cs and 4 F-16Ds, whose delivery began in 2005. They complement the RAFO’s 18 Jaguar strike aircraft, and 11 single-seat subsonic Hawk 203 light fighters. Sultan Qaboos’ air force is looking to replace its aging Jaguars, and has made inquiries about buying 4+ generation fighters like Eurofighters or even JAS-39 Gripens for this purpose.

A formal DSCA request for 18 more F-16s raised the possibility of a different approach, and that has now become a firm contract. But BAE just received an RFP for its Eurofighter…

Rapid Fire 2012-02-08: Uncertainty is Certain

  • Todd Harrison at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) reviews options [PDF] for DOD to handle sequestration. “If this downturn in defense spending is like previous downturns, the FY 2013 budget projection the administration is about to release may prove to be highly optimistic.”
  • The US Senate Armed Service Committee’s (SASC) most important hearing this month will take place on Feb. 14 to get started with the FY13 budget and get briefed on the latest FYPD 5-year plans. The March schedule is set to receive testimony by department between March 1st and March 20.
  • US Senators representing Alaska Mark Begich [D, SASC member] and Lisa Murkowski [R-] introduced legislation (S. 2073) seeking to prohibit the Air Force from moving an F-16 squadron from Eielson AFB to Elmendorf and wrote to Secretary of Defense Panetta.
  • There’s often talk of friction between DOTE (DOD’s Operational Test and Evaluation) and the acquisition community. Case in point of people apparently talking past each other: how can you really assess a whole ship or submarine’s sustainment metrics before launching the lead ship at sea? DOTE wants more data upfront during the IOT&E initial phase while this acquisition officer argues they should settle for modeling and analysis until FOT&E follow-ups.
  • Navistar Defense, Indigen Armor and SAIC are teaming up to bid on the Ground Mobility Vehicle 1.1 (GMV 1.1) program.
  • John J. “Jack” Evans [PDF] has been assigned as deputy director, naval warfare (NW) within DOD Acquisition. He was previously PEO submarines at the Naval Sea Systems Command. Darlene J. Costello, Principal Director Strategic and Tactical Systems (S&TS) was also wearing the NW hat until now.
  • Robert S. “Steve” Miller is Hawker Beechcraft’s new CEO. Very recently the president of their defense division retired.
  • The Canadian Foreign Policy Journal published a special issue [paid content] on the F-35 with headlines that include: “costly mistake”, “Strategically superfluous, unacceptably overpriced.” Please do tell how you really feel.

Submarines for Indonesia

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Latest update (Feb 6/12)

South Korea beats Turkey for new U-boat order; Refit program complete.

U209 Cakra
KRI Cakra
(click to view larger)

Indonesia sites astride one of the world’s most critical submarine chokepoints. A large share of global trade must pass through the critical Straits of Malacca, and the shallow littoral waters around the Indonesian archipelago. That makes for excellent submarine hunting grounds, but Indonesia has only 2 “Cakra Class”/ U209 submarines in its own fleet, relying instead on frigates, corvettes, and fast attack craft.

South Korea’s Daewoo, which has experience building U209s for South Korea, has been contracted for Cakra Class submarine upgrades. Even so, submarine pressure hulls have inflexible limits on their safe lifetime, due to repeated hydraulic squeezing from ascending and descending. The Indonesians have expressed serious interest in buying 3-6 replacement submarines since 2007, with French, German, Russian, South Korean, and even Turkish shipyards in the rumored mix. Other priorities shoved the sub purchase aside, but a growing economy and military interest have finally revived it…

Rapid Fire 2012-02-07: Kendall Wants Data

  • Recently-confirmed US defense acquisition Under Secretary Frank Kendall (pending Senate approval) discussed with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) the implications of DOD’s strategic guidance and what’s coming for FY13. He confirmed he is aiming for continuity from his predecessor and former boss Ashton Carter’s Better Buying Power, and spoke with candor about contracting schemes such as concurrency or fixed-price awards going in and out of fashion at the Pentagon with equal fervor. But it doesn’t seem to matter much whether low-rate initial production is done on a cost-plus or fixed-price basis. In the end, what does really work? On the sign out of Kendall’s door: “In God we trust; all others must bring data.” Audio | PDF transcript.
  • Some acquisition requests are more urgent than others. Dealing with pressing operational requirements is what the Joint Rapid Acquisition Cell (JRAC) does within DOD, as well as some offices within the services such as the Army’s PEO-C3T.
  • While Frank Kendall was calling F-35 concurrency “acquisition malpractice”, Carl Levin [D-MI] and John MCain [R-AZ] – respectively Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) – sent a letter [PDF] to the Secretary of Defense questioning his decision to take the F-35B off probation. Along with 13 other questions, they want to know whether there are dissenting voices within DOD that might have been ignored to reach that decision. From a much more tactical perspective, the F-35s grounded because of defective parachutes are flying again [PDF] now that the issue has been sorted out.
  • The Office of the US Secretary of Defense Comparative Testing Office (CTO) has made a Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) to declare its intention to fund a number of innovative technologies in the tactical realm, from aircrew protection to non-lethal weapons to munition improvements and more. FBO | CTO templates.
  • Airlift provider Global Aviation Holdings Inc. is filing for Chapter 11. Press release | WSJ.
  • The U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command is running a survey to get feedback from soldiers about the Improved Physical Fitness Uniform (IPFU), while the Army Medical Research and Materiel Command is to evaluate bioelectric bandages. This looks less painful than it sounds.

Galileo GPS Project Faces More Certain Future

Latest update (Feb 2/12)

2nd large contract series; EC: We want another EUR 7 billion; New build site opened; 1st operational launch; Major article updates.

Satellite Galileo System Concept
Galileo concept

The USA’s Global Positioning System service remains free, but the European Union is spending billions to create an alternative under their own control. In addition to civilian GPS (the Open Service), services to be offered include a Safety of Life Service (SoL) for civil aviation and search and rescue, a paid Commercial Service with accuracy greater than 1 meter, plus a Public Regulated Service (PRS) for use by security authorities and governments. PRS/SoL aims to offer Open Service quality, with added robustness against jamming and the reliable detection of problems within 10 seconds.

Organizational issues and shortfalls in expected progress pushed the “Galileo” project back from its originally intended operational date of 2007 to 2014/15. After a public-private partnership model failed, the EU gained initial-stage approval for its plan to finance the program with tax dollars instead of the expected private investments. Political issues were overcome in 2007 by raiding other EU accounts for the billions required, but by 2011, it became clear that requests for billions more in public funds were on the way. Meanwhile, doubts persist in several quarters about Galileo’s touted economic model. Security concerns regarding China’s involvement, and its Beidou-2/Compass project overlap, have been equally persistent. On a European political level, however, Galileo is now irreversible.

This article offers background, players, developments, contracts, and in-depth research links for Galileo, as well as linked EU programs like GIOVE and EGNOS:

Germany Sells Israel More Dolphin Subs

Latest update (Feb 5/12)

Contract confirmed for 6th submarine, with AIP.

SSK Dolphin in Port
SSK Dolphin Class

In November 2005, reports surfaced that that Germany would sell Israel 2 AIP-equipped Dolphin submarines, to join its existing fleet of 3 conventional diesel-electric Dolphin Class boats. In 2006, the deal for 2 Dolphin AIP boats was finalized at a total of $1.27 billion, with the German government picking up 1/3 of the cost. The new boats are built at the Howaldtswerke-Deutche Werft AG (HDW) shipyard, in the Baltic Sea coastal city of Kiel, with deliveries originally scheduled to begin in 2010. Those have been delayed, and have not begun as of yet.

Reports that an additional sale may be in the offing have now been confirmed, but just absorbing these 3 new boats will be no small challenge for Israel’s “3rd service”:

Rapid Fire 2012-02-06: HASC Budget Hearing Schedule

  • Former US Navy Secretary and DOD UnderSec Gordon England opines: “The base defense budget, somewhat over 3 percent of our gross domestic product, isn’t the problem and can’t be the solution.”
  • White House Press Secretary Jay Carney insists Secretary of Defense Panetta and President Obama are on the same page. That is, if you ignore the fact they repeatedly made mutually exclusive statements about whether to proceed with budget sequestration.
  • The Congressional Research Service offers a historical perspective [PDF] on the concept of a “hollow force.” They conclude that it can be argued this phrase “is inappropriate under present circumstances.”
  • The House Armed Services Committee (HASC) has a hearing scheduled at 3pm ET this afternoon on the contracting and regulatory issues of doing business with DOD, though they didn’t yet announce who will testify. Meanwhile the Defense Appropriation Subcommittee released its hearing schedule [PDF] until the end of March with a focus on the FY13 budget.
  • The CSBA think tank is running a survey on military compensation. The Stimson Center likes the idea, Veterans of Foreign Wars, not so much.
  • According to Les Echos [in French], defense is going to bear the brunt of budgetary cuts in 2012 that the French government should announce later this week. This in front of a backdrop which might sound familiar: a tepid economic growth forecast and a presidential election.
  • The US Army’s Natick Soldier Systems Center is working on making Individual First Aid Kits (IFAK) easier to carry around and use.

Up to $430M in SUPSALV Pacific Contracts

Diver
SUPSALV Diver

The US Navy’s SUPSALV isn’t glamorous, but they’re involved in a range of activities that include removing dangers to navigation, removing hazardous items (like oil & fuel) from sunken ships, and other underwater engineering. They’re also involved in emergency pollution and disaster response, including 2 of the decade’s most publicized American disasters. They’ve just released their Deepwater Horizon report [PDF] concerning the 2011 oil well disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina in 2005 have just led SUPSALV to field a containerized command post that’s 100% powered by renewable energy, so they can operate without being dependent on local fuel infrastructures

At the beginning of February 2012, US Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington, DC issued a pair of contracts worth up to $430 million.

Rapid Fire 2012-02-03: GAO Left Wanting on SARs

  • The RAND Corporation researched ways to reduce attrition in US Air Force training programs, which they believe could produce significant savings.
  • The GAO finds DOD’s reporting of the costs involved in operating and supporting major programs to be lacking with a number of inconsistencies and under-reported amounts.
  • DARPA is organizing a Proposers’ Day on Feb. 21 in Arlington, VA, to present its High-Assurance Cyber Military Systems (HACMS) whose goal is to secure embedded computer system software.
  • A&P and Thales Australia are partnered to bid on long-term support of HMAS Choules, the RAN’s newest amphibious ship.
  • Fighting base realignment is guaranteed work for lobbyists. What’s less guaranteed are the chances that a bill introduced by Senate Republicans to partially undo sequestration gets traction with Democrats.
  • CACI International’s revenue grew by 12% to $973M for its second FY12 quarter. Funded backlog at the end of 2011 was stable at $2.19B out of an $8B total. Meanwhile Harris Corporation had a flat second quarter at $1.45B in sales, with an increase in exports to compensate for lower US sales.