RN CVF Concept

Britain’s 1998 Strategic Defence Review (SDR) announced a big leap forward for the Royal Navy: plans to replace the current set of 3 Invincible Class 22,000t escort carriers with 2 larger, more capable Future Aircraft Carrier (CVF) ships that could operate a more powerful force. These new carriers would be joint-service platforms, operating F-35B aircraft, plus helicopters and UAVs from all 3 services. Roles could include ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance), force projection and logistics support, close air support, anti-submarine/ anti-surface naval warfare, and land attack.

The scale of the CVF effort relative to Britain’s past experiences means that the program structure is rather complex. It has passed through several stages already, and is being run and conducted within an industrial alliance framework. There is also a parallel international framework, involving cooperation with France on its PA2 carrier as a derivative of the CVF design. This DID FOCUS article covers that structure and framework, ongoing developments, and the ships themselves as they move slowly through construction, and eventual fielding:

• The CVF Queen Elizabeth Class [updated]
• Program Team: The Aircraft Carrier Alliance
• The CVF Program: Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Other CVF-Related Contracts and Events
• Additional Readings & Sources
• Appendix A: CVF Program Management
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• The US House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee quickly approved – behind closed doors – its markup for the FY13 funding bill. Today the Armed Services Committee is starting longer, more difficult discussions, but they will happen in the open [video]. More details in our ongoing coverage of the 2013 NDAA.

• With the release of its 2013 budget, Australia confirmed its delaying of the acquisition of 12 F-35s and other programs as well as some cancellations and early C-130H aircraft retirements. Major capital investments are reduced by AUS $664M. More materiel acquisition details in this PDF.

• According to The Telegraph the UK Ministry of Defence is about to announce that they will revert their decision to buy F-35Cs to choose instead F-35Bs STOVL, which would confirm earlier press reports.
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CH-53K concept
c. Sikorsky

The U.S. Marines have a problem. They rely on their CH-53E Super Stallion medium-heavy lift helicopters to move troops, vehicles, and supplies off of their ships. But the helicopters are wearing out. Fast. The pace demanded by the Global War on Terror is relentless, and usage rates are 3 times normal. Attrition is taking its toll. Over the past few years, CH-53s have been recalled from “boneyard” storage at Davis-Monthan AFB in Tucson, AZ, in order to maintain fleet numbers in the face of recent losses and forced retirements. Now, there are no flyable spares left.

Enter the Heavy Lift Replacement (HLR) program, also known as the CH-53X. It was given the formal designation CH-53K in April 2006, and aims to offer notable performance improvements in a similar-looking package. The question is whether its service entry delay to 2018 will come too late to offset a serious decline in Marine aviation:

• The HLR Program Lifts Off
• The CH-53X / CH-53K
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
• Appendix A: Flying Between Scylla and Charbydis: Navigating The Political Shoals (April 2006)
• Appendix B: Interesting Ideas: The CH-53X Skycrane Concept

CC-130 over BC

The US military has been coming to the realization that its aging aircraft fleet will begin posing serious challenges in the coming years. Canada is experiencing similar problems. In 2005, Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Rick Hillier said that:

“Our [CC-130 E/H] Hercules fleet right now is rapidly going downhill. We know that three years and a little bit more than that, the fleet starts to become almost completely inoperational and we will have to stop supporting operations – or else, not be able to start them.”

This Spotlight article offers additional details regarding the Canadian CC-130 recapitalization program, and the thinking behind it; some background that points up the parallels between the issues faced by the Canadians, and the experiences of other air services; and some insight into why the buy took so long, after the C-130J was declared Canada’s preferred choice in an “expedited” process. Canada has begun using the new planes on operations, and is preparing to accept the last “CC-130J.” This will shift its focus to issues of long-term support costs.

• The Transports and the Damage Done: Issues With the Fleet
  • Live Rust: What To Do Until the New Planes Arrive?
• Comes a Time: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Appendix A – Someday: Facing the Future, At Last?
  • Bite the Bullet: Canada’s Procurement Approach and Process
  • Are You Ready for the Country: Possible Competitors C-130J, C-130M, A400M… IL-76?
• Walk On: Additional Readings & Sources
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• The US House Budget Committee approved a bill to roll back sequestration through reconciliation and instead offers cuts focused on welfare programs. Getting the Heritage Foundation’s seal of approval was a foregone conclusion, but what is missing is a roadmap for such proposals to get any traction in the Senate, let alone get a signature from President Obama. The window of opportunity will be narrow in the lame duck session at the end of the year, and perilously close to the edge of the fiscal cliff.

• RAND published its latest research on portfolio management for Army programs at the Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) stage of the acquisition lifecycle. They have been working to develop a methodology to determine optimal remaining R&D budgets as well as identify which projects to terminate in case of budget cuts.

• The law, and turf wars, stand in the way of clear, updated cyberdefense rules being finalized in the US.
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A400M rollout, Seville

Airbus’ A400M is a EUR 20+ billion program that aims to repeat Airbus’ civilian successes in the full size military transport market. A series of smart design decisions were made around capacity (35-37 tonnes/ 38-40 US tons, large enough for survivable armored vehicles), extensive use of modern materials, multi-role capability as a refueling tanker, and a multinational industrial program; all of which leave the aircraft well positioned to take overall market share from Lockheed Martin’s C-130 Hercules. If the USA’s C-17 is allowed to go out of production, the A400M would also have a strong position in the strategic transport market, with only Russian AN-70, IL-76 and AN-124 aircraft as competition. To date, 174 orders have been placed by Germany (now 53 + 7 options), France (50), Spain (27), Britain (now 22), Turkey (10), South Africa (8), Belgium (7), Malaysia (4), and Luxembourg (1). Chile has expressed an unfinalized interest in 3 planes, but is now likely to buy Brazilian KC-390s instead.

EADS’ biggest issue, by far, has been funding for a project that is more than EUR 7 billion over budget. The next biggest issue is timing, as A400M delivery penalties and Lockheed Martin’s strong push for its serving C-130J Super Hercules cast a pall over the A400M’s potential future. The entire project was under moratorium for over a year as all parties decided what to do, but it’s now moving forward again. This DID Spotlight article covers the latest developments, as the A400M project moves into production.

• The A400M Program
  • History
  • Tech Specs and Issues
• The A400M Program: Dilemmas & a Deal
• Updates & Key Events, 2009-Present [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
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• Hawker Beechcraft filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to restructure its debt.

• CACI’s Q3 FY 2012 results: $928M revenue (+1.6%), $2.04B funded backlog (+4.7%).

• The GAO’s latest reports on DoD logistics look at Item Unique Identification (IUID) implementation and inventory management. DOD manages more than 4 million secondary items and had inventory worth $95.6B as of September 2010. The Pentagon aims to lower its on-order excess inventory to 6% of obligated on-order dollars by the end of FY14 and 4% in FY16.
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C-5 Galaxy

When it was introduced, back in 1970, the C-5 Galaxy was the largest plane in the world. It also has the highest operating cost of any US Air Force weapon system, owing to extremely high maintenance demands as well as poor fuel economy. Worse, availability rates routinely hover near 50%. To add insult to injury, the Russians not only built a bigger plane (the AN-124), they sold it off at the end of the Cold War to semi-private operators, turning it into a commercial success whose customer list now includes… NATO.

Meanwhile, the USA still needs long-range, heavy load airlift. The AN-124’s commercial success may get its production line restarted, but the C-5 has no such hope. Boeing’s smaller C-17s cost more than $200 million per plane. That’s about the cost of a 747-8 freighter, for much higher availability rates than the C-5. What’s the right balance?

Sunrise? Sunset?

The US Air Force believes that the right balance involves keeping some of the larger C-5s, and thought they could save money by upgrading and renewing their avionics (AMP) and engines (RERP). Their hope was that this would eliminate the problems that keep so many C-5s in the hangar, cut down on future maintenance costs, and grow airlift capacity without adding new planes. Unfortunately, the program experienced major cost growth. In response, the C-5M program wound up being both cut in size, and cut in 2. The C-5A and C-5B/C fleets are now slated for different treatment, which will deliver fewer of the hoped-for benefits, in exchange for lower costs and lower risk:

• The C-5’s AMP/RERP Changes
• The AMP/RERP Program and the C-5 Gamble [updated]
• Contracts & Key Events, 1999 – Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
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67% of the fleet

The prime missions of the new DDG-1000 Zumwalt Class destroyer are to provide naval gunfire support, and next-generation air defense, in near-shore areas where other large ships hesitate to tread. There has even been talk of using it as an anchor for action groups of stealthy Littoral Combat Ships and submarines, owing to its design for very low radar, infrared, and acoustic signatures. The estimated 14,500t (battlecruiser size) Zumwalt Class will be fully multi-role, however, with undersea warfare, anti-ship, and long-range attack roles.

True, or False?

That makes the DDG-1000 suitable for another role – as a “hidden ace card,” using its overall stealth to create uncertainty for enemy forces. At over $3 billion per ship for construction alone, however, the program faced significant obstacles if it wanted to avoid fulfilling former Secretary of the Navy Donald Winter’s fears for the fleet. From the outset, DID has noted that the Zumwalt Class might face the same fate as the ultra-sophisticated, ultra-expensive SSN-21 Seawolf Class submarines. That appears to have come true, with news of the program’s truncation to just 3 ships. Meanwhile, production continues. DID’s FOCUS Article for the DDG-1000 program covers the new ships’ capabilities and technologies, key controversies, associated contracts and costs, and related background resources.

• Zumwalt Class: Program and Participants
• DDG-1000 Key Technologies and Features
• DDG-1000 Issues and Controversies
• Zumwalt Class: Contracts and Key Events, 1998 – Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
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Guest Article by Lou Crenshaw, Vice Admiral U.S. Navy (ret.)

The 2011 defense budget was characterized as a budget about uncertainty. Budget officials struggled to make ends meet in what seemed to be an endless stream of continuing resolutions (CRs), debt ceiling crises and impending government shutdowns. There was doubt about the continuing presence of U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and planners were uncertain about what a post-Iraq war presence would look like. Given the lack of clear guidance, future force structure levels were practically impossible to predict. DoD officials were also concerned about the loss of supplemental funding and how to accommodate the migration of baseline expenses into supplemental funds. The newly appointed secretary of defense, Leon Panetta, had presumably been appointed to oversee a massive defense budget restructuring. Given his reputation as a tough but savvy budgeteer, DoD officials were uncertain about how aggressive he would be; they were still stinging from the relatively modest cuts mandated by Secretary Gates. In short, it was a very difficult year for Defense Department planners and budgeteers to put into place any sort of long-term plan that would adequately address the security challenges facing the nation and balance those challenges with the fiscal needs of Congress.

The good news is that unlike in 2011, the Defense Department can bank on quite a bit of certainty going into 2012…

• The New Certainty
  • The good and bad
  • The big picture
• Five Defense Trends for Clients
  • Prepare now for a certain future
• Additional Readings
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