• The Defense Acquisition University (DAU) put together a convenient chart [PPT] that compares major contract types – FPAF, CPIF, T&M et. al. – to show what risks they intend to mitigate, when they should be used, their main elements, what they commit the contractor to and where’s the incentive.

• The DAU’s 2012 industry day will take place on May 1st in Fort Belvoir, VA. On the agenda: affordable programs, efficiency, and DoD’s industrial base policy.

• Milnews.ca has a good round-up on Canada’s 2012 budget cuts.
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Patriot PAC-2

It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Even though Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy, missile and nuclear proliferation is producing reactions. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to responses aimed at reducing that risk. That’s why arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities.

Gulf states recognize that even a lucky conventional missile could wreak havoc if it hit key oil-related infrastructure, or damaged the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence. The spread of nuclear weapons would change the calculus completely. A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary, PDF] believed that Iran’s nuclear program had stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel, were more skeptical. By 2010, that skepticism had spread to US intelligence, which repudiated an assessment that seems set to join the infamous 1962 NIE of no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1].

The Gulf states’ response to these developments covers a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

• US SecDef Panetta told the House Budget Committee in a hearing yesterday that he would start planning for sequestration this summer if Congress has not reached a deal by then. It is likely he will have to, and that is not even factoring in new debates over the debt ceiling.

• From the Center for European Reform: What US retrenchment means for Europe and NATO [PDF].

• Mark Collins is rounding up videos of the recent 2012 Ottawa Conference on Defence and Security. One thing that was not provided there or elsewhere: a definitive price tag for the F-35. It’s hard to get there when ordered quantities are in a state of flux.
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• Turkey plans to proceed with its F-35 plans according to Reuters, while the US Defense Acquisitions Board (DAB) recently met to recertify the program because of its 2010 Nunn-McCurdy rule breach. See also the Feb. 16 update of the F-35 CRS backgrounder [PDF]. Finally, the first F-35A tests with external weapons occurred a week ago, while the UK had its first F-35C test flight 2 days ago (short video).

• Anthony H. Cordesman at the centrist CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy is researching Iran’s ballistic and nuclear programs. Here’s his latest working draft [PDF]. He writes:

“There is no agreement as to exactly how far Iran has come in weapons design, over the nature of its nuclear weapons program if a dedicated program exists, how much is know about Iran’s various nuclear facilities, its future enrichment programs and how they will be concealed and protected.”

• Meanwhile the conservative, intervention-friendly Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI) will ask in a debate next month: time to attack Iran?
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• France and Great Britain had a summit last Friday where they announced they are tightening their defense and nuclear energy cooperation. The two countries plan to establish a Joint Force headquarters and confirmed their joint UAV plans.

• According to The Telegraph the British Ministry of Defence is finally able to balance its books.

• Military helicopter orders from Asian countries could amount to 1,000 units and $10B in the next few years, reckons Bloomberg.
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• German Defense Minister Thomas de Maiziere said the first rule of peace talks with the Taliban is, you don’t talk about peace talks. Well, he didn’t actually paraphrase Fight Club, but that’s the substance of his position expressed during a joint press conference with his American counterpart.

• Panetta and de Maiziere were also meeting to announce changes planned for US troops in Germany. The US Army will inactivate its 170th and 172nd infantry brigades this year and in fiscal 2014, respectively. Overall the US plans a rather moderate cut of 10,000 troops in Europe to a total of 70,000 by 2017. The Lexington Institute is asking where is the much-touted strategic pivot to the Asia-Pacific region?

• The RAND research firm published a paper trying to assess in what state al Qaeda currently is and notes that even though terrorist organizations rarely meet their strategic goals, some go on for decades. On Afghanistan:
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• The Brookings think tank, on the proliferation of IED attacks in 2011: ”[D]anger will not disappear even after the U.S. campaign in Afghanistan ends. [...] It is unsustainable to keep throwing billions of dollars to fight a technology that costs the other side tens of dollars. [...] We need [...] solutions [...] that are cheap and scalable.”

• The inherent cost asymmetry imposed by mines is also on the Naval War College Review’s mind in their overview of mine warfare in China’s near seas [PDF]. Duly filed under the fashionable “anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) in Asia” category.

• US Congressman Mike Coffman [R-CO] is urging [PDF] Secretary Panetta to be bolder in applying his own Strategic Guidance and get US troops out of Europe. Coffman sits on the Armed Services Committee and is a former member of the Army Reserve then served in active duty in the Marine Corps.
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• Todd Harrison at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) reviews options [PDF] for DOD to handle sequestration. “If this downturn in defense spending is like previous downturns, the FY 2013 budget projection the administration is about to release may prove to be highly optimistic.”

• The US Senate Armed Service Committee’s (SASC) most important hearing this month will take place on Feb. 14 to get started with the FY13 budget and get briefed on the latest FYPD 5-year plans. The March schedule is set to receive testimony by department between March 1st and March 20.

• US Senators representing Alaska Mark Begich [D, SASC member] and Lisa Murkowski [R-] introduced legislation (S. 2073) seeking to prohibit the Air Force from moving an F-16 squadron from Eielson AFB to Elmendorf and wrote to Secretary of Defense Panetta.
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• Australian Defence Minister Stephen Smith told reporters the Department will review their JSF purchase timetable, in light last week’s confirmation that the US will take it slow.

• Jim Maslowski, President at Hawker Beechcraft Defense and a former US Navy Rear Admiral, is retiring tomorrow. Meanwhile retired USMC Gen. James E. Cartwright joined Raytheon’s board and former US Deputy Secretary of Defense William J. Lynn III has been confirmed as DRS Technologies’ new Chairman and CEO.

• EADS plans a big round of top management changes, in the usual balancing act between Germany and France: Tom Enders will replace Louis Gallois as CEO while Arnaud Lagardere take over as Chairman of the Board from Bodo Uebber.

• Opinions on the Pentagon’s budget preview: FPI, CRFB, Heritage, Stimson Center, and a video from CSIS at the bottom of this entry. CSIS ran these slides [PDF] during the talk that include a few multi-decade charts showing how previous drawdowns were executed. They’re not sold on booking $60B in efficiency savings before said savings are realized.

• Iraq’s future F-16IQ pilots have begun training in the USA. And Iraq’s officials have begun protesting the presence of American (unarmed) UAVs they’re saying they haven’t authorized.

• A Heron TP UAV crashed yesterday in Israel during tests, apparently because of a human error.

• “It’s not a case of IEDs on the battlefield. IEDs are the battlefield.” Says Joint IED Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) Director Lt. Gen. Michael D. Barbero quoting an officer in Afghanistan.
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• According to Bloomberg the FY13 President Budget submission date has been postponed from Feb. 6 to Feb. 13. Meanwhile House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) is suggesting to chip at sequestration one year at a time if rolling back the whole 10 years proves too much of a hurdle.

• Sen. Claire McCaskill [D-MO] is pushing for FAA commercial certification of a civilian “BC-17” heavy transport aircraft. DoD Buzz doesn’t seem to understand that there’s a significant global market for outside cargo delivery, and that the C-17’s short takeoff & landing capabilities could be useful to industries like mining, that operate in austere locations with smaller airstrips.

• US Army installations get together to share progress toward “NetZero” energy & waste goals.

• The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) looks at [PDF] the tax revenue implications of defense acquisition choices and finds that “the tax revenues are significant; they can yield to the Exchequer [DID: i.e. Treasury] over a third of the value of the contract.”

• France just bought [in French] 29 small Cobra Mk2 robots from Eca Robotics in Toulon, for use in finding and detonating land mines.

• US SOCOM’s 75th Ranger Regiment deploys to Afghanistan with GD’s AN/PRC-154 JTRS HMS Rifleman Radio, and Android-based Itronix GD300 wearable computers.

• Even a dying satellite has lessons to teach. GPS-IIA satellite SVN-30 is doing just that for the USAF.

• The US National Weather Services’ Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now operational at the NWS Omaha Weather Forecast Office, the 1st of 135 forecast sites to upgrade. It’s a Raytheon system.