F-35A test flight
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The $300 billion, multi-national F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program is the largest single military program in history. It’s also reaching a critical nexus. In order to keep costs under control and justify the industrial ramp up underway, participating countries need to sign order agreements within the next year or so. The problem is that the F-35 is not a proven fighter design, with a demonstrated baseline of performance in service. It is a developmental aircraft in the early days of its test program, which is scheduled to continue until 2013 or even 2014.

As one might expect, this status makes the F-35 a controversial long-term bet in many of the program’s member countries. The USA is looking at its budgets, and has concluded that it can afford about half of the annual aircraft buys it had originally planned during the program’s early years. Its fellow Tier 1 partner Britain is reportedly re-evaluating its planned F-35B order in light of rising costs and problematic defense budgets. Sharp controversy has erupted in Tier 2 partner the Netherlands over long-term costs and industrial arrangements, leading to political pressure for a competitive bid. Tier 3 partners Norway and Denmark have both traveled down that same road, and are holding open competitions that pit the F-35 against Saab’s modernized JAS-39NG Gripen.

Australia hasn’t yet reached that point, but September 2008 has featured a very public set of controversies around the F-35’s performance. In the current environment, the altercation in Australia has become a controversy with implications, and responses, that have reached well beyond that continent’s shores.

Recent additions to this article take a much closer look at the RAND study that triggered the controversy. A study that did not specifically address the F-35, but which does have implications for the F-35’s projected performance – and for the heart of the USAF’s current fighter force concept…

• F-35: September 2008’s Australian Altercation
• Australian Altercation: The RAND Study [NEW]
• F-35: Air to Air Analyses [updated]
• F-35: The Air-Air Controversy and Program Success
• Additional Readings
  
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F-22s for Australia?
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In their October 2006 article, “Rapped in the Raptor: why Australia must have the best,” Australian newspaper The Age reported that:

”[Recently] Retired RAAF air vice-marshal Peter Criss has put aside usual conventions to openly question the wisdom of Canberra spending about $16 billion for the F-35 Lightning, also known as the Joint Strike Fighter. The Government committed an initial $300 million to become an early partner in the JSF program, with a final decision to be made by 2008. But Mr Criss says the RAAF should, in fact, consider buying the F-22 Raptor…”

Criss’ disquiet was the first significant breaking of ranks by top military brass over this issue, but Australia’s opposition Labor Party soon stepped into the fray with a formal statement, discussing the fighter gap that will exist between the F-111’s planned retirement early in 2010 and the proposed F-35A LRIP purchase in 2013 or later.

A subsequent purchase announcement and follow-on contracts for 24 F/A-18F Block II Super Hornets have only intensified the discussion. While that F/A-18F purchase is very close to a fait accompli, Australia’s F-35 purchase has moved from an assumed conclusion to a very serious debate – and now that the opposition Labor party will form the next government, the opposition statements and positions of new defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon take on added weight. DID’s Spotlight article chronicles those positions, while offering links and background materials from both sides of the Australian debate. Recent developments include a formal Air Combat Capability Review, the decision to go ahead with the F/A-18F Super Hornet buy, and sources in the USA that appear be considering F-22 export requests seriously…

• The Dissenters
• The Australian Debate: Key Readings.
• The Australian Debate: Situation Updates [new]
  
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RAND Corporation’s Project Air Force undertakes a number of studies as part of its mandate. A recent example looks at US airlift capabilities and their fit with the needs of counter-insurgency operations. The answers could matter a great deal to programs like the Joint Cargo Aircraft, the GPS-guided JPADS paradrop system, et. al., and to tactical options like the British Lt. Col. Labouchere’s successful “Bedouin approach” in southern Iraq. Select quotes from RAND’s “Airlift Capabilities for Future U.S. Counterinsurgency Operations” [RAND release | Report] include:

”....The positive influence of airlift on counterinsurgent morale and confidence is also well documented and strategically important…. Very quickly, a conventional theater airlift fleet can run out of “tails” to support such dispersed operations ….a counterinsurgent airlift effort likely will include a greater proportion of small-scale, quick-response military missions overshadowed by the possibility of encountering serious air defense threats…. The U.S. armed forces’ experience with the C-7 Caribou… provides an instructive precedent…. the C-7 possessed a unique combination of moderate speed, economy of operation, and the ability to take off and land on rough fields that ….proved to be enormously valuable in Vietnam…. there may be a need to refill the C-7’s operational niche. However, this need should be understood as a shortfall in capability…. two general program goals that DoD should emphasize….

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RAND’s National Defense Research Institute does a lot of work for the US military and defense intelligence communities under joint contract DASW01-01-C-0004. One recent piece addresses the future of America’s carrier fleet, whose size and capabilities make it unique in the world. The report’s introduction notes:

“Because they offer unparalleled mobility, provide sustained military presence, can send signals of U.S. concern and possible actions, and free the United States from having to conduct flight operations from foreign bases or obtain permission from foreign powers to fly over territory, aircraft carriers likely will continue to be an asset of choice for years to come. Indeed, it is entirely possible that, as the United States seeks ways to stretch its defense dollars, pursue the Global War on Terrorism, and meet other national-security challenges, policymakers will increase their reliance on aircraft carriers, using them more often and in more situations than they have in the past, especially if the vessels have the additional capabilities to respond appropriately.

The current and expected use of aircraft carriers led the U.S. Navy in fall 2004 to commission the RAND Corporation to explore new and nontraditional ways that the United States might be able to employ aircraft carriers in pursuit of traditional and emerging military and homeland defense missions….”

Read “Leveraging America’s Aircraft Carrier Capabilities: Exploring New Combat and Noncombat Roles and Missions for the US Carrier Fleet ” in full [PDF format].

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Earlier DID articles have covered this issue from various points of view – see esp. DID’s December 2005 “Costing the CVN-21: A DID Primer” and the April 2006 piece “RAND: UK Offers Shipbuilding Industry Lessons for USA.” Now RAND turns its attention more fully to the US Navy and shipbuilding industry. Its summary page notes that:

“Over the past several decades, the increases in acquisition costs for U.S. Navy amphibious ships, surface combatants, attack submarines, and nuclear aircraft carriers have outpaced the rate of inflation. To understand why, the authors of this book examined two principal source categories of ship cost escalation: economy-driven factors (which are outside the control of the Navy) and customer-driven factors (features for which the Navy has the most control). The authors also interviewed various shipbuilders to find out their views on other issues contributing to increasing costs. Based on their analysis, the authors propose some ways the Navy might reduce ship costs in the future, including limiting growth in features and requirements and reconsidering the mission orientation of ships. It is recognized, however, that such reductions come at a cost, since the nation and the Navy understandably desire technology and capability that is continuously ahead of their competitors.”

The full, 124-page report can be found here in PDF format.

Additional Readings

• House Armed Services Seapower and Expeditionary Forces Subcommittee (July 30/09) – Hearing on Efforts to Improve Shipbuilding Effectiveness. See Video Part 1 / Part 2 / Part 3 || Gene Taylor [D-MS] Opening Statement || PDF submissions from… The Honorable Sean J. Stackley, Assistant Secretary of the Navy Research, Development, and Acquisition | Vice Admiral Kevin McCoy, Commander, US Naval Sea Systems Command | Michael Petters, President of Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding | Mr. David Heebner, Executive Vice President of Marine Systems at General Dynamics | Mr. Ronald E. Ault, President of the Metal Trades Department at the AFL-CIO | Mr. Brett Olson, Business Representative of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW), Local 46

DID has covered RAND’s Project Air Force before, and their lessons learned from the F-22 and F/A-18 Super Hornet programs attracted a lot of reader interest here. Now they shift their focus to China’s defense production capabilities, which are beginning to address previous weaknesses and turn out a range of increasingly advanced weapons (for instance, the YJ-62 anti-ship cruise missile). This study examines the current and future capabilities of China’s defense industry, as part of a larger RAND Project Air Force look at Chinese military modernization.

The study’s goals and foci include recent trends in China’s long effort to reform its defense industry, the individual strengths and weaknesses its missile, aircraft, shipbuilding, and information technology sectors, a look at variations in performance and structure among different Chinese defense-industry sectors, and the overall prospects for China’s defense industry and its ability to contribute to military modernization. China’s growing electronics industry and its contribution to defense modernization is also covered. Readers can skip into the HTML page covering this research to see the overview and buy the book, read only the summary [PDF format, 300k], or download the whole report [PDF format, 2 MB].

RAND also recommends the related short brief, “China’s Defense Industry Is Emerging from Its Troubled Past.” DID, in turn, recommends the following pair of briefs as accompaniment:

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RAND Corp. in Santa Monica, CA received a $210.6 million cost-reimbursement plus fee-for-need contract to provide for RAND Project Air Force, Research of Air and Space Power. Originally known as Project RAND (an acronym for research and development), PAF was established in 1946 by General H. H. “Hap” Arnold as a way of retaining for the United States Air Force (USAF) the considerable benefits of civilian scientific thinking that had been demonstrated during World War II. Since its founding, PAF has focused entirely on studies and analyses rather than systems engineering or scientific laboratories. Publications include the F/A-18 E/F and F/A-22 program lessons learned report that DID covered earlier today.

This is a five-year option period, which extends the contract to a ten-year period. Solicitations began August 2005 and one proposal was received; work will now be complete in September 2015. The Air Force District Washington in Rosslyn, VA issued the contract (FA7014-06-C-0001). For more information, contact the 11th WG/PA at 202-767-7561.

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Since the late 1980s, the U.S. Air Force has pursued the F/A-22 Raptor supersonic stealth fighter that incorporated numerous breakthrough technologies, while the US Navy developed the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet based on the existing F/A-18. Unsurprisingly, the F/A-22 program has experienced significant cost growth and schedule delays and is still in the testing stage. In contrast, the Super Hornet completed its development on cost and without significant delays, and has already been used in combat.

RAND’s Project Air Force looked at both programs with the intent of understanding how each project’s history turned out the way it did, what underlying factors might be at work, and what lessons might be learned.

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CVF Alliance Concept
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The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence (MOD) recognises that its Future Aircraft Carrier (CVF) program provides opportunities to save substantial sums of money over the life of the ships.

To help realize the project’s whole-life savings potential, the MOD called for an independent, objective analysis of new technologies and alternative manufacturing options. The RAND Corporation was asked to perform that analysis and, in particular, to identify and evaluate options for reducing support costs, other whole-life costs, and manpower. DefenceTalk.com has the coverage, and RAND has made the report highlights available in HTML and PDF format.

So, what about the CVF program, and the ships themselves? DID has moved that information over to a new program briefing: Design & Preparations Continue for Britain’s New CVF Future Carrier (updated).

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L-3 Communications Corp. in Arlington, TX received a $240.9 million indefinite-delivery/ indefinite-quantity contract. This is a warfighter readiness science and technology program. This effort is to research, develop, demonstrate, evaluate, and transition leading edge technologies and methods to improve warfighter readiness and optimize human-centered logistic processes, enabling the Aerospace Expeditionary Force (AEFs) to achieve their mission goals. The Air Force is issuing a task order up to the maximum amount indicated above, although actual requirements may necessitate less than the amount above.

To understand this contract, it’s necessary to understand the AEF concept, and also some of the recent issues with the system.

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