• Todd Harrison at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) reviews options [PDF] for DOD to handle sequestration. “If this downturn in defense spending is like previous downturns, the FY 2013 budget projection the administration is about to release may prove to be highly optimistic.”

• The US Senate Armed Service Committee’s (SASC) most important hearing this month will take place on Feb. 14 to get started with the FY13 budget and get briefed on the latest FYPD 5-year plans. The March schedule is set to receive testimony by department between March 1st and March 20.

• US Senators representing Alaska Mark Begich [D, SASC member] and Lisa Murkowski [R-] introduced legislation (S. 2073) seeking to prohibit the Air Force from moving an F-16 squadron from Eielson AFB to Elmendorf and wrote to Secretary of Defense Panetta.

• There’s often talk of friction between DOTE (DOD’s Operational Test and Evaluation) and the acquisition community. Case in point of people apparently talking past each other: how can you really assess a whole ship or submarine’s sustainment metrics before launching the lead ship at sea? DOTE wants more data upfront during the IOT&E initial phase while this acquisition officer argues they should settle for modeling and analysis until FOT&E follow-ups.

• We missed this last month: The US Navy’s 2012 update of its naval aviation vision [PDF]. For reference: NAE 2010 [PDF].

• Navistar Defense, Indigen Armor and SAIC are teaming up to bid on the Ground Mobility Vehicle 1.1 (GMV 1.1) program.

• John J. “Jack” Evans [PDF] has been assigned as deputy director, naval warfare (NW) within DOD Acquisition. He was previously PEO submarines at the Naval Sea Systems Command. Darlene J. Costello, Principal Director Strategic and Tactical Systems (S&TS) was also wearing the NW hat until now.

• Robert S. “Steve” Miller is Hawker Beechcraft’s new CEO. Very recently the president of their defense division retired.

• The Canadian Foreign Policy Journal published a special issue [paid content] on the F-35 with headlines that include: “costly mistake”, “Strategically superfluous, unacceptably overpriced.” Please do tell how you really feel.

• Australian Defence Minister Stephen Smith told reporters the Department will review their JSF purchase timetable, in light last week’s confirmation that the US will take it slow.

• Jim Maslowski, President at Hawker Beechcraft Defense and a former US Navy Rear Admiral, is retiring tomorrow. Meanwhile retired USMC Gen. James E. Cartwright joined Raytheon’s board and former US Deputy Secretary of Defense William J. Lynn III has been confirmed as DRS Technologies’ new Chairman and CEO.

• EADS plans a big round of top management changes, in the usual balancing act between Germany and France: Tom Enders will replace Louis Gallois as CEO while Arnaud Lagardere take over as Chairman of the Board from Bodo Uebber.

• Opinions on the Pentagon’s budget preview: FPI, CRFB, Heritage, Stimson Center, and a video from CSIS at the bottom of this entry. CSIS ran these slides [PDF] during the talk that include a few multi-decade charts showing how previous drawdowns were executed. They’re not sold on booking $60B in efficiency savings before said savings are realized.

• Iraq’s future F-16IQ pilots have begun training in the USA. And Iraq’s officials have begun protesting the presence of American (unarmed) UAVs they’re saying they haven’t authorized.

• A Heron TP UAV crashed yesterday in Israel during tests, apparently because of a human error.

• “It’s not a case of IEDs on the battlefield. IEDs are the battlefield.” Says Joint IED Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) Director Lt. Gen. Michael D. Barbero quoting an officer in Afghanistan.
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• According to Bloomberg the FY13 President Budget submission date has been postponed from Feb. 6 to Feb. 13. Meanwhile House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) is suggesting to chip at sequestration one year at a time if rolling back the whole 10 years proves too much of a hurdle.

• Sen. Claire McCaskill [D-MO] is pushing for FAA commercial certification of a civilian “BC-17” heavy transport aircraft. DoD Buzz doesn’t seem to understand that there’s a significant global market for outside cargo delivery, and that the C-17’s short takeoff & landing capabilities could be useful to industries like mining, that operate in austere locations with smaller airstrips.

• US Army installations get together to share progress toward “NetZero” energy & waste goals.

• The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) looks at [PDF] the tax revenue implications of defense acquisition choices and finds that “the tax revenues are significant; they can yield to the Exchequer [DID: i.e. Treasury] over a third of the value of the contract.”

• France just bought [in French] 29 small Cobra Mk2 robots from Eca Robotics in Toulon, for use in finding and detonating land mines.

• US SOCOM’s 75th Ranger Regiment deploys to Afghanistan with GD’s AN/PRC-154 JTRS HMS Rifleman Radio, and Android-based Itronix GD300 wearable computers.

• Even a dying satellite has lessons to teach. GPS-IIA satellite SVN-30 is doing just that for the USAF.

• The US National Weather Services’ Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now operational at the NWS Omaha Weather Forecast Office, the 1st of 135 forecast sites to upgrade. It’s a Raytheon system.

• J. Michael Gilmor, the Director of Operational Test & Evaluation (DOT&E) within the US DoD released his FY2011 report. Among other changes made in recent months, he notes that his organization now has input at the Joint Capabilities Integration Development System (JCIDS) level to help make sure requirements for new programs are measurable and testable. For reference: FY2010 report.

• The latest think tank memos [all PDFs]: CSBA delivers two trendy topics in one swoop on defeating Iran’s anti-access/area-denial threats; CSIS offers a new security architecture for the Arctic; and the Lexington Institute predictably asks the military to limit its industrial roles.

• US defense acquisition regulation is updated with a waiver allowing procurement from the UK of certain items that normally have to be sourced from the national [i.e. American] technology and industrial base. This waiver is effective for a year beginning on February 1st and covers air circuit breakers, small welded shipboard anchors and mooring chains, gyrocompasses, electronic navigation chart systems, steering controls, pumps, propulsion and machinery control systems, and totally enclosed lifeboats.

• DefenceWeb: The USAF says that it knows what went wrong with the RQ-170 Sentinel stealth UAV that Iran captured, and continues to use the type.

• Speaking of long-range drones, Israel has just blocked a sale of Aeronautics DS’ Dominator XP UAV to… Abu Dhabi. An unspecified export contract was reported in July, but most of us didn’t think of the United Arab Emirates. Perhaps this will open an opportunity for the Predator XP?

• Lockheed Martin acquired Procerus Technologies, a designer of UAV avionics created in 2004 and based in Utah.

• Britain is beginning work on a National Space Security Policy, which will seek to cover both military and civil use of space.

• Raytheon delivers its 30th SSDS ship combat system, and keeps its record of always delivering early.

• The ARGUS wide-area surveillance system, deploying to Afghanistan soon aboard Boeing’s A160T Hummingbird ultra-long endurance helicopter UAVs, collects 6 trillion bytes of information a day. Which is why technologies to manage that information firehose are so important.

• Can games-maker Electronic Arts use the likeness of aircraft like the MV-22 and AH-1Z in its games, or does it needs the manufacturer’s permission? That’s the subject of a recent lawsuit.

• House Armed Services Committee (HASC) member Todd Platts (R-PA-19) announced he won’t seek reelection.

• Video of yesterday’s HASC panel on business challenges within the defense industry embedded below, with John Shoraka of the Small Business Administration (SBA), Linda Hillmer who chairs the Small Business Division at the National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA), and Lynn M. Schubert, President of the Surety & Fidelity Association of America. Hillmer complained about bundling squeezing small businesses in sub-contracting positions:
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• The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) think tank published a report [PDF] on the South China Sea, a potential hot zone because of its sea lanes and China’s increasingly assertive territorial claims driven by natural resources such as deepwater oil and gas. Just surveying these resources has been a source of tension between China and neighbors including Vietnam and the Philippines.

• IAI says: Our President is retiring. Oh, and by the way, we just made a $1.1 billion sale to an unnamed Asian country (Globes first reported it was India but later retracted). It reportedly includes aircraft (UAVs? G550 ISR? KC-767 MMTT?), missiles (ground strike, anti-ship or naval air defense), and intelligence technologies (very wide range).

• Fellow Israeli UAV firm Aeronautics DS now has 8 long-range Dominator XP UAVs in different stages of work, as the DA42-based UAV ramps up production in the wake of export clearances.

• Little Rock AFB, AR accepts the 4th of 5 C-130H Avionics Modernization Program test & evaluation transport aircraft, and the 1st modified by the USAF’s Warner Robins ALC.

• Christmas came for the Swiss, with delayed delivery of their initial AEV-3 Geniepanzer heavy armored engineering vehicles. The Dutch and Swedes will be glad that problems were ironed out over there.

• Airdrops by US troops over Afghanistan reached a record last year at almost 16M pounds (about 7,250 tonnes). They like their JPADS. The airdrop ramp-up started a few years ago.

• THE US Air Force has a quick review on the state of eye injury protection and post-injury care. See also from the Army: Combat eye protection | Vision conservation and readiness program [PDF].

• US Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Jacob Lew will wrap-up the FY13 President Budget then replace William Daley as President Obama’s Chief of Staff.

Patriot PAC-2

UAE closes $3.48 billion THAAD missile deal. (Dec 31/11)

It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Even though Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy, missile and nuclear proliferation is producing reactions. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to responses aimed at reducing that risk. That’s why arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities.

Gulf states recognize that even a lucky conventional missile could wreak havoc if it hit key oil-related infrastructure, or damaged the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence. The spread of nuclear weapons would change the calculus completely. A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary, PDF] believed that Iran’s nuclear program had stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel, were more skeptical. By 2010, that skepticism had spread to US intelligence, which repudiated an assessment that seems set to join the infamous 1962 NIE of no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1].

The Gulf states’ response to these developments covers a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

• The US Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) approved (26-0) for a 2nd time the FY12 defense authorization bill, to reflect cuts originating in the Budget Control Act. Summary of the proposed additional cuts. Meanwhile the current continuing resolution expires in 2 days so Congress is set to vote this week on extending temporary funding until mid-December, and the Supercommittee has 7 days left. It’s time to get serious instead of goldwatching, missing the point, or considering resorting to blatant accounting tricks.

• The SASC also reviewed security issues in Iraq with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Martin Dempsey. Video embedded below after the cut; quick highlights.

• The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) says it wants to hold contractors accountable. The GAO however is not convinced by all the claims of savings made by government agencies following recent cost-control OMB directives.

• RAND’s Arroyo Center studied 60 years of US Army outlays and where its budget might go in the near future, while Harvey M. Sapolsky, in answer to the Decker-Wagner Army Acquisition Review [PDF], curiously argues that Army acquisition is both not broken and not fixed.

• USMC helicopter programs may be threatened by F-35 costs, at least in terms of delivery rates.

• Speaking of the US Marines, some are going to be based in Darwin in Northern Territory, Australia.

• Can the approaches that take the twinkle out of stars for astronomers put the zap into lasers for the military? Boeing and SAIC think so, as the USA’s HEL-JTO issues a Phase II contract for a High Power Adaptive Optic system.

• The T-AKE ship Medgar Evers, named after the slain Mississippi civil right leader, is christened by his widow.

• Could the processes behind Apple’s big operational advantage help your company?

• The US Army finds commercial smartphones less brittle than expected, and pretty useful too.

• Britain is weighting its options to dispose of old nuclear subs. See 2nd video below:
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• US NAVAIR performs the 1st steam catapult launch of its carrier-borne F-35C Lightning II fighter, from its land testing facility at NAS Patuxent River, MD. Short video at the bottom of this entry.

• Should the US DoD be restricted to buying only steel melted in the US?

• The Pentagon presented its tentative Air-Sea Battle doctrine which will be developed by the creatively-named Air-Sea Battle Office (ASBO). Andrew Krepinevich, president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) likes it, though that’s hardly surprising. Two elephants in the room: China, and the US Army. More: DOD Buzz | Defense News | Washington Times | Information Dissemination.

• Australia accepts its 3rd of 4 A330 MRTT/KC-30A aerial refueling tankers, at RAAFB Amberley.

• Republican US Senators Jon Kyl (AZ) and Richard Lugar (IN) sent a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to lean in favor of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) rather than the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM). The point of contention: how to regulate cluster munitions.

• Republicans and Democrats are leaking their respective outlines of what the Super Committee could enact to meets its deficit reduction goals, with its deadline looming in less than 3 weeks while the current continuing resolution expires in 8 days. Such leaks are usually not a sign that negotiations are proceeding productively and in good faith. Roll Call | Politico. Some lawmakers want to prevent the automatic cuts from happening if the super committee doesn’t reach an agreement, which would pretty much defeat its purpose.

• But wouldn’t it help knowing how much is spent in the first place? Nuclear weapons is one area where nobody seems to agree on the numbers.

• The French Marine Nationale sailed almost all its available fleet during the Libyan Harmattan operation, including 3 nuclear subs, according to Mer & Marine [in French].
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• We wish there were more elected officials like Rep. Walter Jones [R-NC-3], who has spent 10 years trying to clear the names of 2 pilots involved in a fatal MV-22 Osprey crash. Why didn’t H.Res. 698 (111th) get out of committee?

• RAND Corporation analyzed the root causes behind Nunn-McCurdy cost breaches for the following MDAPs: Zumwalt, JSF, Apache, and WGS. See also DOT&E’s presentation [PDF] from last August on the very same topic, and The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s just-released report on managing risk in defense projects.

• POGO has more details on the failed IT modernization contract at Andrews AFB that led the US Air Force to ask for the debarment of 3 contractors.

• The Heritage Foundation, the Lowy Institute for International Policy, and the Observer Research Foundation think tanks jointly made the case for US-Australia-India cooperation defense cooperation.

• First battalion of UH-72A Security & Support variant helicopters enter service with the US military.

• The crew of the Taiwanese fishing vessel Chin Yi Wen takes back their boat from about 6 Somali pirates, then contacts the UKMTO naval task force. Seems some of the sailors were veterans of the Vietnam War. 3 sailors injured, and the pirates, uh, “fell into the sea” and haven’t been found. Last week German frigate FGS Köln sank 2 pirate fishing boats and captured several people.

• TKMS Blohm + Voss holds a keel-laying ceremony for Germany’s first F125 expeditionary frigate.

• 3 soldiers of the Welsh Cavalry on a patrol in Nahr-e Saraj, Afghanistan got out of their recently-rehulled Scimitar Mk2 almost unfazed after an IED blast. The 1st video below shows what these tracked vehicles look like.

• The 2nd video below shows the US Navy’s Deep Submergence Unit (DSU) using a pressurized rescue module to practice a submarine rescue with their Chilean peers:
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• The Guardian in the UK has gathered and crunched more numbers on operations in Libya (see also past linkage to Libyan ops debriefing).

• The Pentagon is about to brief Lockheed Martin on how much F-35s should cost. Memos have also been flying back and forth between DoD and the Air Force on whether training should proceed before more test hours could be completed. Meanwhile the Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute would like to hear “more forthright and more detailed rationales” to support the F-35 choice.

• FY13 Pentagon budget to reflect a shift to Asia/Pacific? November/December is when the DOD and the OMB jointly work on the next fiscal year’s budget, aiming for the President’s budget February deadline. In the meantime, it would be nice for Congress to actually pass a budget for the current fiscal year since we’re already 1 month into it.

• Earlier this year Shay D. Assad, Director, Defense Procurement and Acquisition Policy & Strategic Sourcing (DPAP – that’s within the US DoD’s acquisition office) released mandatory Source Selection Procedures [PDF] that apply to all negotiated, competitive DoD acquisitions under FAR Part 15, effective for RFPs issued since July 1, 2011. There is no template yet for the Source Selection Decision Document (SSDD) though. The Defense Acquisition University notes that the Army Source Selection Manual [PDF] from 2007 is as good as it gets, but some of the language it uses – such as the risk rating scheme – needs to be adapted to the new procedure.

• Speaking of the DoD’s acquisition online presence, it now has a whole section dedicated to Earned Value Management, or, in a mouthful, an “integrated management system that coordinates the work scope, schedule, and cost goals of a program or contract, and objectively measures progress toward these goals.”

• The Stimson Center released a report [PDF] last week providing a bird’s eye view of defense procurement FY01-FY10, and concluded that, despite very visible cancellations and cost overruns, the US military by and large successfully modernized its capabilities through the past decade.

• A paper by the Center for Strategic Leadership, U.S. Army War College on strategic minerals advises [PDF] to “restock, upgrade and adjust the objectives of the National Defense Stockpile [NDS], including new strategic and critical minerals such as REE [rare earth elements].” Related: this Reconfiguration of the National Defense Stockpile Report to Congress [DoD, 2009].

• In the 1st video below Rear Admiral Nevin Carr, Chief of US Naval Research, discusses directed energy and hypersonics. He notes that railguns can now shoot hundreds of times and are evolving towards more reasonable energy requirements. 33 megajoules (MJ) apparently amounts to the energy of a lot of Volkswagens compacted into a football flying at 100mph. The Navy’s railgun demo from December 2010 (2nd video below) shot a much lighter projectile… but at Mach 7. Anyway, you get the idea, 33MJ is researcher talk for “that’s gotta hurt.”
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