Gulf States Requesting ABM-Capable Systems

Patriot PAC-2

It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to responses aimed at reducing that risk. That’s why arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, but Iran’s ballistic missiles are another matter. They may be based on North Korean designs that lack accuracy, but the prospect of nuclear payloads is producing reactions.

Gulf states recognize that even a lucky conventional missile could wreak havoc if it hit key oil-related infrastructure, or damaged the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence. The spread of nuclear weapons would change the calculus completely. A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary, PDF] believed that Iran’s nuclear program had stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel, were more skeptical. By 2010, that skepticism had spread to US intelligence, which repudiated an assessment that seems set to join the infamous 1962 NIE of no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1].

The Gulf states’ response to these developments covers a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

Rapid Fire Dec. 10, 2012: Long Range Standoff Weapon

• Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Raytheon will all get fixed priced contracts from the US Air Force to support the Long Range Standoff (LRSO) program in preparation of its Technology Development phase. The intent is to replace AGM-86 Air Launched Cruise Missiles (ALCM), though the Air Force also has modernization plans to extend their life until 2030. As of last February’s FYDP, $2M were to be allocated to the program in FY13 with a ramp-up leading to $209M in FY16 and $353M in FY17. The Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) was at the time scheduled to be completed during the current fiscal year (i.e. FY13) with a Milestone A decision in 2014.

• United Technologies won’t sell its pump and engine control systems business to TransDigm as the US Department of Justice objected to the deal. They do have to divest that unit though as a condition imposed by regulatory authorities to approve UTC’s acquisition of Goodrich.

• BAE Systems San Diego Ship Repair in California should have a steady workload for the next 5 years, according to its general manager Robert Kilpatrick. San Diego Union-Tribune.