Rapid Fire Feb. 22, 2013: Sequester Threatens Bookings more than Backlog

• US defense acquisition undersecretary Frank Kendall encouraged his staff to start briefing their industry contacts about the effects of sequestration in a memo seen by Reuters. Comptroller Hale anticipates that new contracts are more likely to be delayed or cancelled than existing ones.

• But contracting officers do not necessarily know how the big picture affects them. In a Q&A posted by the USAF after an industry day dedicated to Depot On-Site Contract Augmentee Teams 3 (DOCAT3):

“Q [industry]: Will the hiring freeze impact/help this contract?

A [Air Force]: It is not known how the hiring freeze will impact the program. It may or may not increase the need for DOCATs.”

• Defense News reports that the Pentagon is going to delay payments to prime contractors to make sure the department does not run out of cash.

Rapid Fire Feb. 21 2013: Hi, My Name is Bob and I’m a Sequestrolic

Hi Bob!

• As they had pre-announced yesterday, the Pentagon made their preparations for potential sequestration and furlough notifications official. There’s just 4 days left where Congress will be in session before this kicks in. DoD comptroller Bob Hale provides a little bit of comic relief: “When I walk down the hall, people still wave, but with fewer fingers.” Among senior DoD officials, Hale was probably most forthcoming last year with specifics on how adjusting to sequestration might happen.

• Stars & Stripes has a helpful Q&A on the coming furloughs.

ALAS: the Missile Cometh

ALAS mock-up

The usefulness of over the horizon light precision strike weapons is becoming clear to navies, recently became clear to land forces, and was always clear to air forces. Serbia’s Yugoimport has been working on an “Advanced Light Attack System” missile that builds on their rocket and turbojet expertise, but they needed a financial backer to develop their low-cost solution. In 2013, an agreement with the UAE’s EAI secured that backing, in exchange for joint development.

The missile is an interesting product definition case, which seems to aim at a low-cost, non-western niche in the naval and helicopter markets. At sea, it could be a strong step forward to address an emerging requirement for all navies.

UAE Buys C-17s, Seeks Tactical Transports

UAE C-17: 1st delivery

The biggest news from the 2009 IDEX exhibition was the UAE’s twin selections of medium (12 Lockheed C-130J) and heavy (4 Boeing C-17) transport aircraft. Estimates at the time placed the total value at AED 10.7 billion (about $2.78 billion), but the estimates were low for the C-17, and would likely rise further if the C-130 order also goes through. The C-17 order later rose to a confirmed contract for 6 planes, and negotiations remain in progress for the C-130J-30 buy.

Given the country’s geographic position, and the global shortage of military airlift capacity outside of the United States, a force of this size and quality can be parlayed into international influence by supporting multi-national military deployments and humanitarian efforts from Africa to South Asia, and around the world.

Future GPS: The USA’s GPS-III Programs

GPS IIIA concept

Disruption or decay of the critical capabilities provided by the USA’s Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites would cripple both the US military, and many aspects of the global economy. GPS has become part of civilian life in ways that go go far beyond those handy driving maps, including timing services for stock trades, and a key role in credit card processing. At the same time, military class (M-code) GPS guidance can now be found in everything from cruise missiles and various precision-guided bombs, to battlefield rockets and even artillery shells. Combat search and rescue radios rely on this line of communication, and so does a broadening array of individual soldier equipment.

GPS-III satellites are a key part of this PTN (Positioning, Timing & Navigation) system’s future plan, offering several improvements over the existing GPS II family. So, too, does its companion OCX ground control system. This DII FOCUS article looks at the existing constellation, GPS-III improvements, the program’s structure, its progress through contracts and key milestones, and additional PTN/GNSS research links.

Rapid Fire Feb. 20, 2013: Here Come the WARN Act Letters

• The pre-sequester bad news are now coming full bore: Defense Department set to announce furlough plan (Stars & Stripes) | Navy’s budget plan: No Bataan deployment, fewer jets (Virginian-Pilot) | BAE could layoff 1,368 workers (San Diego Union-Tribune). But it’s always someone else’s fault.

• The company formerly known as Hawker Beechcraft emerges out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy process as just “Beechcraft.”

• More orders announced by the UAE at IDEX include Raytheon GBU-12 and GBU-58 laser-guided bombs, support for their Thales Crotale air defense missiles, and Fire Storm targeting from Rockwell Collins. Defense News.

• India’s Defence Ministrer A K Antony says “speedy indigenization in Defence production is essential to eliminate corruption in procurement process.” He did not explain how one leads to the other, but Western manufacturers who expect to make up for declining home markets will take note of what the minister told the armed forces: “imports should be the last resort.” This, just as Russia is also refocusing on homegrown sourcing.

• Colonel Leon Thurgood will be promoted to general and Program Executive Officer, Missile and Space at Redstone Arsenal, AL. He’s been deputy at the PEO for the last few months. Here is their weapon systems book [PDF].

UAE Tie-Up Introduces the RQ-1 Predator XP

Predator XP Concept

With MQ-1 Predator UAVs fading from the marketplace as advanced customers turn to the MQ-9 Reaper, General Atomics is moving to broaden the type’s appeal. At IDEX 2011, they announced a Memorandum of Understanding with the UAE’s International Golden Group to offer an RQ-1 “Predator XP” variant to the Emirates, with US government permission to broaden that customer base to “other countries in the Middle East and North Africa.”

General Atomics’ MQ-1 Predator UAV has achieved iconic status around the world, but export success has been limited. The Predator XP is designed to break the logjam that has stymied wider sales, and at IDEX 2013, the logjam finally broke. So, what makes the “XP” version different? And why was it necessary in the first place?

Oman’s Air Force Upgrades: From Jaguars to F-16s & Eurofighters

RAFO F-16Cs w. CFTs

Oman is located on the eastern Arabian peninsula next to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and across from Persia. It remains a very strategic country, controlling the Strait of Hormuz’ western bank, and providing an overwatch position for both the entrance to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean near Africa. The Royal Air Force of Oman (al-Quwwat al-Jawwiya al-Sultanat Oman) currently flies 12 F-16 Block 50 fighters: 8 F-16Cs and 4 F-16Ds, whose delivery began in 2005. They complement the RAFO’s 18 Jaguar strike aircraft.

Sultan Qaboos’ air force is looking to replace its aging Jaguars, and made inquiries about buying 4+ generation fighters like Eurofighters or even JAS-39 Gripens for this purpose. A formal DSCA request in August 2010 for 18 more F-16s raised the possibility of a different approach, and quickly became a firm contract. Then BAE received an RFP for its Eurofighter, which also turned into a contract. With these buys, plus a handful of new jet trainers, the RAFO’s fighter modernization looks to be complete.

M-ATV: A Win, at Last, for Oshkosh

Oshkosh M-ATV

“The Government plans to acquire an MRAP All-Terrain Vehicle (M-ATV). The M-ATV is a lighter, off-road, and more maneuverable vehicle that incorporates current MRAP level [bullet and mine blast] protection. The M-ATV will require effectiveness in an off-road mission profile. The vehicle will include EFP (Explosively Formed Projectile land mine) and RPG (Rocket Propelled Grenade panzerfaust) protection (integral or removable kit). The M-ATV will maximize both protection levels and off-road mobility & maneuverability attributes, and must balance the effects of size and weight while attempting to achieve the stated requirements.”
  – US government FedBizOpps, November 2008

Oshkosh Defense’s M-ATV candidate secured a long-denied MRAP win, and the firm continues to remain ahead of production targets. The initial plan expected to spend up to $3.3 billion to order 5,244 M-ATVs for the US Army (2,598), Marine Corps (1,565), Special Operations Command (643), US Air Force (280) and the Navy (65), plus 93 test vehicles. FY 2010 budgets and subsequent purchases have pushed this total even higher, and orders now stand at over 8,800 for the USA, plus another 800 for the UAE.

Rapid Fire Feb. 19, 2013: IDEX Deal Index

• The United Arab Emirates announced $1.4B worth of contracts with Oshkosh ($380M for 750 M-ATVs), General Atomics (near $200M for an unspecified quantity of unmanned Predator UAVs), and others. Talks about the purchase of defanged “Predator XPs” (XP for export, not Blue Screens of Death) had started two years ago. Decaffeinated coffee, low-fat bacon, unarmed UCAVs… Gulf News | Bloomberg | Reuters | Defense News.

• The elephant in the room is the UAE’s Rafale-Typhoon standoff: they are still talking to both vendors.

• Boeing teamed with 2 UAE firms to market and support ScanEagles and Integrators in the region.