More AN-124s On The Way
Related Stories: Contracts - Intent, Other Corporation, Partnerships & Consortia, Russia, Transport & Utility
One rocket, to go…
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Antonov’s AN-124 Condor began as a Soviet super-heavy military transport aircraft that would be even larger than the American C-5 Galaxy. After coming out on top in that particular ‘mine is bigger than yours’ contest, the AN-124 outdid its American rivals again by going on to a surprising second career in the civilian sector. It has become the de facto global standard super-heavy cargo aircraft for outsize loads – a market that may rise to $500 million by 2010. Even NATO uses the Condor these days, via its SALIS lease of 6 AN-124s to meet the military transport needs of 17 participating nations.
The AN-124s are accumulating fatigue hours, however, and some have yet to be upgraded to newer versions. Meanwhile, Volga-Dnepr chairman Alexei Isaikin had forecast AN-124 capacity shortages by 2008. Hence the Dec 15/06 negotiations held at ANTONOV ASTC headquarters with key customers Volga-Dnepr Airline JSC and Aviastar JSC. It has taken a while after that to raise the required financing, but now it looks like production is set to resume…
Days of the Condor: Re-newing the AN-124
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Air Force Technology observes that in September 2004, the governments of Russia and the Ukraine announced that series production of the An-124 would be restarted, with to 80 An-124-100M upgraded aircraft to be jointly manufactured by Aviastar and Aviant between 2006-2020. That project has been delayed, but not stopped.
The current An-124-100 is actually a fully commercial derivative of the military AN-124, with more than 14 years of operational experience. The civil An-124-100 was certified in 1992, and meets all current civil standards including ICAO Stage/ Chapter III noise limits and modern navigational equipment requirements.
Upgrades that let the AN-124 operate with a decreased crew, offer increased range of flight and payload, add new engine options that meet the newest ICAO standards, and incorporate modernized avionics can now be carried out under this framework, whose details have not been publicly released. Modification of the aircraft to a reported AN-124-100M-150 status extends the AN-124’s freight capacity from 120t to 150t, reduces required crew size from 6 to 4, and adds a strengthened front cargo ramp, simplified and accelerated loading/unloading, increased range, an improved braking and tire system, and upgraded avionics including a ground proximity warning system.
Aviastar JSC Executive Director Mr. V. Savotchenko, hinted at concrete arrangements for further production when he said in 2006 that ”...the plant did not stop production of the airplanes. That is why we are ready to renovate serial production of the airplanes, the giants of AN-124 family.”
Global Markets and Competition
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Herman A. Kurapov’s research pegs the global out-sized air cargo market at:
”...about US$250M in annual sales. 5300 tonnes of cargo are carried and 14,600 flight hours flown. During the ‘90s, the market grew 12% per year on average, compared to 5-6% growth for regular airfreight. Business has quadrupled in the last 10 years and is expected to reach US $ 500M by 2010 and become worth US $ 2B within 30 years.”
Much of this market is not military in origin; indeed, Kurapov claims that more than 52% of this market (or US$ 115 million per year) is currently North America-related (35-40% of total sales in the US market, 11-12% in Canada).
This indicates that the AN-124 is likely to occupy a unique and sustainable space in the global cargo market for quite some time to come, with new aircraft rolling off the production line and financing available. Across the Atlantic, the USA is undertaking upgrades to its decades-old C-5A Galaxies that will give them acceptable mission readiness profiles via new engines and electronics. They also seem intent on shuttering C-17 production despite usage and wear levels in the existing fleet that have been significantly higher and more strenuous than originally envisioned. Oddly, the Americans even seem to be creating obstacles to civilian use.
Contracts and Key Events
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Nov 24/09: Russian and Ukranian media report that a $500 million investment looks set to relaunch AN-124 design in 2010, with a goal of beginning production in 2012. Key quotes include Russian President Dmitry Medvedev:
“There’s a market niche for new large cargo transporters. If we don’t seize this opportunity, others will.”
Volga-Dnepr President Aleksey Isaikin, whose airline owns 10 of the planes:
“BP used our 124s to ship oil rigs to a deposit in Colombia. They say it worked out tens of times cheaper than by boat. But we desperately need new planes to fill demand.”
The price tag is estimated at $200 million per plane, which pleases state-owned United Aircraft Corporation President Aleksey Fedorov:
“We will manufacture 70 new 124s in the first phase. That will require investment by the government of half a billion dollars.”
The first task will be re-creating a reliable supply chain, and prospecting work has begun. The Ukrainian government is reportedly considering state financing for related development projects to modernize the Antonov An-124-100 and its D-18T engines. Interfax-Ukraine reports that a relevant agreement was reached by the Russian-Ukrainian intergovernmental economic committee, at a Moscow meeting of its subcommittee for cooperation in aircraft. RIA Novosti’s RT | Interfax-Ukraine | StrategyPage.
Nov 17/09: Ukrainian Industry Minister Volodymyr Novytsky is quoted as saying that Ukraine and Russia will speed up work on preparations for resuming the mass production of An-124 Ruslan aircraft in 2010. The 2 countries had already started preparatory work, including design work by Antonov to modernize the avionics. BSANNA.
April 27/07: The new Ruslan AN-124-100M-150 has completed tests. Antonov announces the completion of Russian GosNII GA and GosNII Aeronavigatsiya certification tests for the new AN-124-100M-150. Documentation is now being prepared for consideration by the Interstate Aviation Committee, in order to obtain their certificate for the AN-124-100M-150.
Dec 15/06: Representatives of ANTONOV ASTC, Volga-Dnepr Airline JSC and Aviastar JSC sign an “agreement on modernization and construction of AN-124 Ruslan aircraft family.” Antonov ASTC press release.
Additional Readings
- Antonov ASTC – AN-124 Ruslan
- Aviation Zone – Antonov An-124 Ruslan (Condor)
- Air Force Technology – AN-124
- Aviation Zone – Lockheed C-5 Galaxy
- Aviation Zone – Boeing C-17 Globemaster III
- Air Cargo World (April 2006) – Planning Projects Properly. “Frustrated by the ad-hoc nature of project cargo operations, Volga-Dnepr wants more say in supply chain planning…”
- CASR (February 2006) – Strategic Airlifters: a Comprehensive Comparison between the Boeing C-17 and the Antonov An-124-100 [Author Bio | Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4]. Note that AN-124 purchase price given in Part 2 & 3 appears to be off by a factor of 8; this may have been confused with an upgrade price.
