Not any time soon…
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DID has covered Greece’s about face on half of its future fighter order, switching from a EUR 4.9 billion contract (about $5.8 billion) for 60 EADS Eurofighters to a roughly $2 billion contract for 30 F-16C/D Block 50/52s. Even so, defense ministry spokesman Stefanos Gikas has said that their ”...next order [in 2009] for fourth-generation jets will be reviewed by another military council meeting. It does not exclude any company from Europe or the U.S.” Possible contenders like Dassault (Rafale), EADS (Eurofighter), Lockheed (F-35 Lightning II), and Saab/BAE (JAS-39 Gripen) had all been looking forward to that next phase, some more than others.

They may have to wait a bit longer now, because Greece’s plans have changed. With orders for new F-16s and Leopard tanks in hand, their Government Council for Foreign Affairs and Defence (KYSEA) has approved a EUR 11.39 billion procurement program for 2006-2010… and new fighters aren’t on the list.

Defense-Aerospace.com reports that the new equipment approved for purchase includes:

• 20 transport helicopters (likely to be NH90s),
• 6 frigates (rumored to be the French-Italian FREMM design)
• 5 maritime patrol aircraft
• 400 armored troop transport vehicles

FREMM drawing
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Reports indicate that these orders will consume EUR 2.9 billion, while EUR 8.43 billion euros will go to pay for equipment ordered by the previous government. That doesn’t quite add, with notional FREMM frigate prices hovering in the $300-400 million per ship range and 20 NH90s likely to cost about EUR 1 billion, thus breaking the declared procurement budget all by themselves.

What is clear is that the next-tranche purchase of fourth generation fighter jets is postponed until the 2011-2015 armament program, which projects a funding increase to about EUR 15 billion. DID should note that planning forecasts of future defense budget increases from future political administrations rarely arrive anywhere; they are usually either wishful military thinking, or a politician’s trick. An aging population and correspondingly rising social welfare concerns makes such increases especially unlikely to arrive in European countries.

Turkey would begin receiving F-35A Lightnings as of about 2015 if it remains in the program, which will add some pressure to the Greek political equation after that date. Note, however, that this makes it easy for a future administration to put off the next-tranche fighter purchase again in the 2011-2015 plan.

Time will sort all of these purchases out, both near-term and over the longer term.