US Debating Aerial Tanker Types, Mix

It has been a long road for the USA’s aerial tanker replacement competition. After the Darlene Druyun scandal and the linked but separate withdrawal of Boeing’s KC-767 lease proposal, the USA continues to examine its options. Some reports note that the existing tanker fleet of “more than 490” KC-135 Stratotankers (USAF figure, out of 732 built until 1966), derived from Boeing 707s, and 59 KC-10 Extenders derived from McDonell Douglas DC-10-30CFs, may be able to perform until 2040. Yet a combination of procurement momentum, steadily increasing and future-uncertain maintenance costs, and the impact of an unforseen fleet-wide grounding for the USAF’s aging Boeing 707s continue to push the competition ahead.

With a Phase One buy of around 175 aircraft, whose unmodified civil versions cost well over $100 million each, this could easily become a $100 billion program by the time all is said and done. Meanwhile, studies like “Brittle Swords: Low-Density, High-Demand Assets” [42k, PDF] highlight the dangers and potential false economies of under-investment.

In the wake of the USAF’s recent RFI, industry-watchers are paying attention again. Boeing’s latest 10K investors’ report noted that the likelihood of KC-767 tanker orders coming in before the civilian 767 production line runs out had “diminished”; Boeing added that the decision to “complete 767 production” could come before the end of the 2006 calendar year. Meanwhile, some observers believe the EADS Airbus/ Northrop-Grumman KC-30 (A330 MRTT) tanker may have become the competition front runner – but new options like the larger 777 or A340 are being bandied about, and military opinions differ re: the preferred size and mix of the USAF’s future tanker force.

The latest news is the release of the KC-X RFP, amidst uncertainty over the EADS/Northrop Grumman team’s willingness to compete…

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