His estimate is based on the projection that of the 20,000 fighter aircraft worldwide, between 8,000 and 10,000 would need to be taken out of service in that period. Replacements are assumed to be on a 1 new : 2 old basis, and he estimates that half of that market would be open to non-U.S. aircraft. These are typically buyers who actively do not buy American, or want a second source of supply. Thus, some 2,000 to 2,500 fighters likely would be needed, and assuming Saint-Cloud-based Dassault maintains its 13-15% share of the world fighter market, one gets about 300 aircraft.
In fairness, there are a number of assumptions built into that prediction, and a few factors not included in this linear extrapolation analysis.
Sikorsky Aircraft recently announced it has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Government of Turkey for 12 new S-70B Seahawk helicopters to bring its fleet total to 20, plus an option for 5 additional helicopters. First deliveries are scheduled to begin in 2008. While a price was not disclosed, GlobalSecurity.org notes that H-60 variants tend to cost between $6-12 million each.
Technological development for the U.S. Navy’s advanced DD (X) destroyer is still lagging despite progress in a number of areas, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) said in a report issued June 14, 2005. GAO cited issues of technology maturity in certain areas, including volume search radar, and expressed concern that delayed testing may not offer important answers before key decisions are made. The full report can be found here in PDF format.
The DD (X) destroyer program is currently is approaching two key decision points.
AT&T Government Solutions has been awarded a 5-month, $14 million contract to provide engineering and installation work at key locations in the United States and abroad as part of the Department of Defense’s Global Information Grid Bandwidth Expansion (GIG-BE) project. AT&T is a subcontractor to SAIC on the project.
Meanwhile, the Joint Task Force for Global Network Operations (JTF-GNO) will unveil a document next week that looks at improving the way users manage and defend the Global Information Grid, the Defense Department’s classified and unclassified network.
Boeing Satellite Systems in Los Angeles, CA received a $6.5 million firm-fixed-price contract modification authorizing Satellite 3 launch services to provide launch support and early operations, including orbit-raising on-orbit checkout for Wideband Gapfiller Satellite Flight 3. Boeing Satellite Systems will accomplish this work at their El Segundo, CA facility, Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, FL, and at other locations as required.
Upon its first launch into geosynchronous orbit in FY06, WGS Flight 1 will be the U.S. Department of Defense’s highest capacity communication satellite.
Small business qualifier Marvin Engineering Co. Inc. in Inglewood, CA received a $5 million firm-fixed-price delivery order against a previously issued basic ordering agreement (N00019-03-G-0018) for 161 LAU-7 Missile Launchers. The LAU-7 is used in conjunction with the AIM-9 Sidewinder air-air missile.
Work will be performed in Inglewood, CA and is expected to be completed in February 2007. The Naval Air Systems Command in Patuxent River, MD issued the contract.