Forecast Me Not
- IHS Jane’s is making the bold prediction that aggregated Asian defense budgets will supersede North America’s by 2021. Maybe. They don’t share their methodology but from their release it appears that by “forecast” they mean “project recent past trends for straight 8 years regardless of likely disruptions.” Whether China, India or Russia will really be able to grow as much as Jane’s analysts expect is subject to financial constraints and social difficulties of a different nature, but probably as strong as in the West. The IISS came up with an even bolder scenario a few months ago, but defense budget forecasts 10 years out have a tendency to end up widely off the mark.
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