Unraveling Iraq: Why, and What Now

• Anthony Cordesman from the CSIS think tank couches in strong terms the case that al Qaeda’s resurgence in Iraq is largely the result of Prime Minister Maliki’s violent, corrupt and sectarian attempts to consolidate power.

• Ted Galen Carpenter from the Cato Institute agrees, and concludes that “no one should assume Iraq’s continuing survival as a country.”

• Saleh al-Mutlaq, one of 3 deputy prime ministers, hopes that the elections scheduled on April 30 will help stabilize the country, and pushes back against claims that Al Qaeda took control of Fallujah.

• In neighboring Syria, infighting between rebels will give President Bashar al-Assad leverage in peace talks to start in Switzerland next week. But some opposition groups have yet to confirm they will attend the conference.

Pacific Pivot: What Can the US Really Afford While Japan and Taiwan Keep Small Budgets

• T. X. Hammes, a research fellow at the US National Defense University, asks in the National Interest:

“[T]he discussion of military strategy [in response to Chinese expansionism] should force the deeper and more important discussion of whether or not the United States can afford/accomplish the strategy of dominance we have used in maritime affairs in Asia since WWII.”

• Japan’s latest modest defense budget increase made headlines, but their military spending still amounts to just about 1% of GDP. In that light:

Given China’s rapid economic and military rise, Japan’s and Taiwan’s stagnant defence spending – as well as the recent sequestration in the United States – would seem to be a major cause for concern. Seen from the perspective of traditional realism, the actions of Japan and Taiwan might be seen as dangerously complacent.

• It took months of negotiation but the US and South Korea finally reached an agreement on the amount the Koreans will contribute to their own defense.

• The Chinese air force (PLAAF) is simplifying its complicated organizational structure [PDF].

• According to Reuters, the US Justice Department and DoD’s Defense Criminal Investigative Service are investigating Honeywell’s move to China in 2009 of the production of thermal sensors used in F-35s. The company since then relocated that production to the US.

Blast Hounds: Britain’s Army is Keeping Their Mine-Resistant Vehicles

Mastiff, Afghanistan

In 2006, Britain started purchasing a trio of very different vehicles intended to helps their army patrols in high-threat areas. Their “Urgent Operational Requirement” orders were part of a general trend among Western militaries toward blast-resistant vehicles, in response to the widespread use of explosives by enemies in Iraq & Afghanistan. BAE was arguably the global leader in this area, but the beneficiary of Britain’s awakening was an American firm: Force Protection.

Britain originally chose Force Protection’s Cougar vehicles over BAE’s RG-33 family, and elected to continue that trend by adding the 4×4 “Ridgeback” patrol vehicles, 6×6 “Wolfhound” cargo variants, and now the modular 4×4 “Foxhound” light patrol vehicle. Specific figures weren’t given initially, and orders developed via ad-hoc additions rather than a long-term plan. Those figures emerged over time, along with field experience to back up the initial pros and cons of Britain’s modified Cougar design. Other urgent orders spread work to Navistar and Supacat. Now, many of these UOR buys are being folded back into the general force…

Gates without Gatekeepers: Just Read His Book!

What Else Would You Expect

• Former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ memoir has been the talk of the town this week. John Dickerson argues in Slate that the Washington commentariat has been guilty of selective quoting and spin, whereas Gates’ actual message was measured and subtle. Maybe people should stop and read the book itself, rather than snippets from third parties promoting their own agendas? Update: Gates hasn’t been surprised but is disappointed by this hijacking.

SASC Sticks to Hearings Behind Closed Doors

• Don’t expect open hearings from the senate armed services committee (SASC) as long as Carl Levin [D-MI] is in charge. Somehow the counterpart committee in the House of Representatives found a way not to let the need for occasional classified discussions get in the way of transparency. Various newsrooms and nonprofit organizations have called for open hearings, so far to no avail.

Middle East

• Iraq’s military has reportedly made a deal with Sunni tribes in the Anbar province to fight the Al-Qaeda affiliated Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

• Syria: How chemical weapons are being destroyed | Aboard the ship charged with destroying WMD (video) | 2 attacks reported on chemical arms sites.

• Oman is expected to continue to grow its defense budget.

Airbus, BAE Change Their US Leadership

• Jerry DeMuro will replace Linda Hudson as president and CEO of BAE Systems, Inc., effective February 1st. He was until last year working at General Dynamics.

• Allan McArtor is to succeed Sean O’Keefe as Chairman and CEO of Airbus Group, Inc. as of March 2014. McArtor has been at EADS (now Airbus) since 2001.

• AM General filed a lawsuit against the government in the Court of Federal Claims over the Ground Mobility Vehicle award last August to General Dynamics.

New S-61 Helos for the US Government

S-61T

In February 2010, Sikorsky announced an indefinite delivery/ indefinite quantity agreement with the US Department of State to purchase up to 110 modernized S-61N/T Sea King helicopters, for itself or for other government departments. USDoS is expected to be the largest customer, buying them for “passenger and cargo transport missions in support of its worldwide operations.”

That will reduce, but not eliminate, the State Department’s regular need to lease helicopters for this purpose. As one example, the helicopter that spirited Rep. Alan Grayson [D-FL] out of Niger during the 2010 coup was flown by Blackwater/Xe’s Presidential Airways. The Sikorsky contract probably won’t change that sort of need, but it will make a difference in countries like Afghanistan. Because of the current state of helicopter support there, the role of private contractors to fill the gaps has been growing. The initial S-61T delivery order has been sent there, as an alternative the ensures availability for the department’s personnel. That has been followed by more orders, and Sikorsky is pointedly touting its S-61Ts as a broader alternative to leased machines in theater – many of which are earlier-model S-61s.

Pentagon Committed to Helping Iraq, from Far, Far Away

• Foreign Policy notes that the US won’t ship Iraq the weapons it needs to fight Al Qaeda. The Pentagon is content with expediting the delivery of Hellfire missiles and ScanEagle UAVs, and in the past year the White House has only partially revisited its narrative that Al Qaeda “is on the run.”

• The CSIS think tank aptly summarizes what’s going on in a country that many in the US were trying hard to forget: Iraq in Crisis.

• History worth knowing, as it is still echoing in the Iranian military’s legacy and mentality: the great Iranian purge.

Turkey Picks Navantia’s LHD to Bulk up Amphibious Capabilities

Spain’s L61 & LCM-1Es

Turkey has been looking for a new amphibious assault ship for some time. The competition for an “LPD” began in 2010, and bids were requested in 2011, but it took until December 2013 for the SSM procurement agency to decide.

In December 2013, Turkey’s SSM procurement agency announced that the Defense Industry Executive Committee had directed them to begin contract negotiations with SEDEF Gemi Insaati AS, which is partnered with Navantia to offer the BPE/ Juan Carlos I Class design. If that fails, Turkey will look East…

Pentagon Waives Rules Meant to Prevent Defense Use of Chinese Components

• According to Reuters, US Acquisition Undersecretary Frank Kendall allowed the use of Chinese magnets in F-35 components to avoid delays for lack of parts. Such magnets often depend on rare-earth materials.

• The UAE is reportedly concerned that US components on satellites they’re to acquire from France may be used as backdoors.

• BAE Systems has successfully tested 3D-printed parts on Tornado GR4s.