Gulf States Requesting ABM-Capable Systems

Patriot PAC-2

It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to responses aimed at reducing that risk. That’s why arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, but Iran’s ballistic missiles are another matter. They may be based on North Korean designs that lack accuracy, but the prospect of nuclear payloads is producing reactions.

Gulf states recognize that even a lucky conventional missile could wreak havoc if it hit key oil-related infrastructure, or damaged the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence. The spread of nuclear weapons would change the calculus completely. A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary, PDF] believed that Iran’s nuclear program had stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel, were more skeptical. By 2010, that skepticism had spread to US intelligence, which repudiated an assessment that seems set to join the infamous 1962 NIE of no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1].

The Gulf states’ response to these developments covers a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

Rockets & Reach: UAE Doubles Down on HIMARS, ATACMS

M142 HIMARS

In September 2006, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced the United Arab Emirates official request High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (M142 HIMARS) as well as associated equipment that included GPS-guided missiles with a 300 km reach.

Subsequent years have seen that request fulfilled, and additional requests have been placed for rocket, missiles, and now a second set of HIMARS systems…

France Willing to Put Assets on Fire Sale to Keep Defense Budget Nominally Flat

• France’s Ministry of Defense released its 2015 budget plans [in French]. They’re looking at a nominally flat (i.e. excluding inflation) 31.4 billion euros ($39.7B) budget, within which €5.7B go to major programs and €2.8B are assigned to the nuclear deterrent. 1 FREMM frigate, 11 Rafale jets, 4 A400M transport aircraft, and 25 VBCI infantry vehicles are among the planned deliveries next year.

• To get there the French government will need to successfully auction the 700 Mhz frequency range, with €2.3B in one-off asset sales necessary to meet the €31.4B topline number. Canada got almost CAD5.3B from its own auction in that range earlier this year. However the Coe-Rexecode research firm thinks [in French] that market participants are not ready to use these frequencies, and the government would leave a lot of money on the table by rushing their auction. There are also technical reasons why this frequency auction is unlikely to happen before the end of 2015 at the earliest.

• On the other hand that the French ministry of defense will fire 7,500 people next year can be taken for granted. The French military, known as the “Great Mute” has been growling about accounting tricks and job cuts mostly though spouse and retiree associations. This may change as the European Court of Human Rights just ruled [PDF] that “the blanket ban on trade unions within the French armed forces is contrary to the [European Convention on Human Rights].”

• But pressure on fiscal issues is mounting on the Hollande/Valls administration within their own party (Hire more teachers! Spend more!) as well as from their German neighbors (Get your act together, schnell!). They have their work cut out for them. Defense Minister Le Drian brought up the idea [AFP, in French] of “project companies” set up to acquire and lease equipment back to the government, with partial state backing. Sounds woolly. Instead, expect some planned equipment deliveries to slip.