Global Terms of Trade Shift as Oil, Currencies Face Wild Fluxes

• Oil prices have continued their steep decline last week and so far today, paired with a surge in the US dollar’s value against everything from the Euro and Yen to the currencies of many emerging economies. Russia’s ruble is suffering the same fate [WSJ] as the country’s main export, dropping as much as 9% earlier today before somewhat rallying.

• All this means that contractors from outside of the US are getting respite after years of an arguably overpriced Euro, while their American competitors will face more difficult export odds. If this lasts, it’s bad news for US firms such as Raytheon or Textron who have pointed to foreign sales as their way to balance decreasing American orders.

• Talks of oil dropping as low as $30 [Bloomberg] still seem a bit outlandish absent a demand crash, but then few were predicting the speed and strength at which oil prices have already declined.