France’s Rafale

Dassault’s Rafale: Variants

The Rafale is a 9.5 – 10.5 tonne aircraft powered by 2 SNECMA M88 jet engines, each generating up to 16,500 pounds thrust with afterburner. Canards are used to improve maneuverability, especially for snap-shots in short-range dogfights, and radar shaping lowers the aircraft’s profile relative to 4th generation competitors like the Mirage 2000 or F-16. Carrier capability was a prime motivator behind France’s decision to go it alone with the Rafale program, and variants exist for both land-based and carrier use.

Despite its size, the Rafale can carry an impressive set of ordnance beyond its 30mm DEFA 791 cannon: up to 9.5 tonnes of weapons and stores on 14 pylons (1-2 on center fuselage, 2 below engine intakes, 6 underwing and 2 wingtip pylons), 5 of which are “wet” pylons that can carry heavy stores or fuel tanks. Its Thales RBE2 mechanically-scanned array or RBE2-AA AESA radar can direct MBDA’s MICA RF missiles, and future integration of the long-range Meteor is also planned. A combination of Thales/SAGEM’s OST Infrared Scan and Track optronics, and MBDA’s MICA IR medium-range missiles, allows the Rafale to supplement its radar-guided missiles with passively-targeted, no-warning attacks on enemy aircraft from beyond visual range. At present, this capability is only duplicated by Russian aircraft: Sukhoi’s SU-27/30 family, and advanced MiG-29s.

Rafale Variants: Types and Tranches

The Rafale comes in several broad types, and also comes in different capability tranches.

Carrier-capable Rafales are single-seat fighters, and are referred to as Rafale Ms. They will become the French Navy’s only fighters, replacing the F-8P Crusader fighter, Etendard IVP reconnaissance aircraft, and Super Etendard strike aircraft. They feature the usual set of carrier modifications, including lengthened and strengthened landing gear, strengthened airframe and arrester hook for landings, and carrier landing electronics. The front-center pylon is deleted on this version, in order to make room for that robust landing gear.

French Air Force Rafales come in 2 broad types: the preferred 2-seat Rafale B, and the single-seat Rafale C. They will eventually replace the SEPECAT Jaguar, Dassault’s Mirage F1, and most of the Mirage 2000 family in French service.

Within those designations, Dassault’s Rafales also come in capability tranches that are common across all versions.

Initial Rafale F1s are limited to air superiority missions, and included only Rafale-Ms intended as urgent replacements for the French carrier force’s 1950s/60s era F-8P Crusader air superiority fighters. Rafale F1s are capable fighters, and represented a huge upgrade for the Marine Nationale. Even so, they lack the wide weapons fit of 4+ generation counterparts like the JAS-39 Gripen or modern F-15 Strike Eagles, the optimized cockpit of EADS’ Eurofighter, or the price advantages of Sukhoi’s SU-30 family.

Surviving Rafale-M F1s will be upgraded to the F3 configuration, swapping out the core mission computer and cockpit displays, and changing the plane’s radar, electrical wiring, SPECTRA countermeasures system, and hardpoints. The 1st upgraded plane was delivered in October 2014.

Rafale F2. The F2 standard, which adds the ability to carry and use precision ground attack weapons. This standard includes 2-seat air force Rafale-Bs, single-seat Rafale-Cs, and naval Rafale-Ms. Key additions include radar ground attack and terrain-following modes, carriage of laser-guided bombs and Storm Shadow/ Scalp cruise missiles, MICA IR missile capability using the OSF IRST sensor, a Link 16 datalink, and a buddy tanker pod for Rafale Ms. The biggest thing the F2 standard lacks is integration of independent laser targeting capability, which is why French Rafales over Afghanistan had to operate in conjunction with Super Etendard and Mirage 2000D fighters.

F2 Rafales have now been upgraded to F3 status, which was much easier than it is for the F1s.

Rafale F3. Since 2008, all Rafales have been delivered in the F3 standard, and most have now been upgraded to it. Initial changes added the ability to carry French ASMP-A air-launched nuclear missiles, allowing the Rafale to replace the Mirage 2000N in that nuclear strike role. Other modifications include full integration with the Reco NG reconnaissance pod, implementation of all currently planned modes for the RBE2 radar, anti-ship attack with the Exocet or follow-on ANF, and support for an improved tanker pack.

Further changes were forthcoming within F3. Full integration with Thales’ Damocles surveillance and laser targeting pod was executed, and Damocles-equipped Rafales were used over Libya in 2011. The current standard is F3.3, and F3.4 is expected to debut in early 2014.

The Rafale’s radar took a quantum leap forward as of Rafale #C137, with Thales’ RBE2-AA AESA radar replacing the mechanically-scanned RBE2 array on previous aircraft. The new radar has hundreds of active T/R modules, and involves about 400,000 lines of code all by itself. This compares to about 2 million lines of code for the aircraft’s entire original avionics suite. In exchange, AESA radars generally create roughly 2x-3x better range or resolution than current PESA technologies. Note that older Rafales don’t currently have AESA radars, but they’re expected to see upgrades under a EUR 1+ billion F3R program.

Nuclear ASMP-A capability is irrelevant to exports, but the addition of an AESA radar and full independent precision strike capability will go a long way toward making the Rafale more competitive with challengers like American F-16/15/18s, Saab’s JAS-39NG Gripen, EADS’ Eurofighter Typhoon, and the oncoming F-35 program.

Rafale F3Rs features software enhancements to make full use of the RBE2-AA radar, Meteor long range air-to-air missile integration, SBU-64 dual mode laser/GPS AASM smart bomb integration, improvements to Thales SPECTRA self-defence system, an Identification Friend or Foe interrogator/transponder with full Mode-5/ Mode-S-compatibility. Diagnostic improvements will make maintenance easier and more cost-effective, and there are reports that F3R will improve an overall pilot interface that has been consistently rated below the Eurofighter’s. As of September 2013, the DGA started referring to these planes as the 4th tranche (4T), and January 2014 saw a full commitment to develop all of these upgrades for fielding by 2018.

Efforts to include MBDA’s Meteor long-range air-air missiles are underway already, but it won’t be ready until 2018. That will make Rafale the last European fighter to integrate the Meteor, about 3-4 years later than the JAS-39 Gripen. It will also be the only fighter with a 1-way Meteor datalink instead of a 2-way link.

The Rafale remains behind in 2 other areas.

Its new Damocles surveillance and targeting pod’s 320 x 240 infrared array is far behind other international offerings, even with an architecture that effectively gives 640 x 480 resolution. Current performance is adequate, but this gap will continue to widen until the improved PDL-NG surveillance and targeting pod’s debut in 2018 with an effective 1280 x 1040 array. That’s about the same as some rival offerings in 2014, so by 2018, the Rafale is likely to modernize from a gross competitive disadvantage in a critical technology to a noticeable competitive disadvantage.

The 2nd gap is even more consequential. While the Rafale has a wide Head Up Display, an installed Helmet Mounted Display that would allow the Rafale to take full advantage of its wide-borseight MICA missiles remains the type’s most important missing piece, even after F3R.

Dassault’s Rafale: Program

The French Senat tallied the Rafale program at EUR 43.56 billion over 40 years, at 2011 prices. That figure was for 286 forecast aircraft, and the EUR 152 million per-plane figure was similar to the Pentagon’s “PAUC” metric, amortizing development costs as well as flyaway purchases.

Current plans call for delivery of 225 Rafale B/C/M aircraft by the end of the program, which will stop sometime around 2017 without export orders. Cutting production totals to 225 worsens per-plane raises the development cost average per plane, and slowed production will raise actual per-plane fixed costs.

If the Rafale is expensive, it’s also the heart of French military power. Its carrier and nuclear roles are irreplaceable, and the 2011 Libyan operation demonstrated that it has evolved to play a central role in French conventional wars. The Rafale program equally important to France’s aerospace industry, as the heart of France’s advanced military aerospace research. The Rafale has been responsible for significant steps forward in French materials science, engine design, computing, sensors, etc. at Dassault, Thales, and Snecma. Not to mention over 500 sub-contractors. In total, the aircraft is said to be responsible for 7,000 direct and indirect jobs.

As of September 2013, 121 Rafales had been delivered: 38 Rafale-M, 39 Rafale B, and 44 Rafale C. As of October 2014, the total had risen to 133.

Rafale Program: History

Unfortunately, 1985 proved to be a perilous start date for an expensive decade-plus weapons project. The end of the Cold War led to a severe funding crunch. Development took a long time, and fielding was delayed for many years. That delay left Rafales with great potential as a 4+ generation fighter, but limited operational capabilities that compared unfavorably with the planes it was trying to replace. That has come back to bite Dassault, and France.

The first operational Rafale-M aircraft was delivered in 2000, to the Marine Nationale, and the type entered full service in 2004, in the F1 configuration. Plans call for eventual delivery of up to 60 Rafale Ms, delivered or upgraded to at least the F3 standard.

The end of 2004 saw initial delivery of 2-seat Rafale B fighters to the French air force, and 2005 saw delivery of the 1st single-seat Rafale C. The aircraft entered service with the air force in 2006. All Rafale B/C fighters have been delivered as F2s or F3s.

By 2006, the French armed forces had ordered just 120 Rafales (82 Rafale A-C for the Armée de l’Air, 38 Rafale M for the Marine Nationale) of the planned 294. About 70 had been delivered by 2009, when a new French purchase raised the order book to 180 Rafales; but 2009 also saw production cut from 14 to 11 aircraft per year. This is seen as the minimum necessary to maintain the production line, and keeping the line at even that minimum capacity required an extra EUR 1.1 billion during 2009-2014 budget period, to bring forward 17 orders planned for later years.

The challenge for the following 2015-2019 budget period was to finalize the export orders necessary, in order to maintain production while French orders were cut again.

The Rafale Program: What’s Next?

Additional multi-year buys will be required, but absent major export orders, a combination of deteriorating global finances, future demographic crunches in Europe, and the advent of unmanned UCAV projects like the nEUROn, will all compete with additional French Rafale orders. As those orders are squeezed, Dassaut won’t be the only firm feeling the pain. The effect would be felt throughout France’s aerospace sector, as Snecma, Thales, and their subcontractors would be forced to rethink their plans – or even their existence, in the case of some lower-tier suppliers.

That leaves 2 options for the platform.

As the British have demonstrated, one way to improve a jet’s affordability is to improve maintenance contracts. In 2008, the French defense ministry’s SIMMAD signed a 10-year “Rafale Care” contract with Dassault that paid for availability and flight-hours, rather than spares and man-hours. The British approach has been to build toward a contract that makes 1 firm responsible for all sub-contractors as well, but in 2012, a decade-long contract between SIMMAD and Thales made it clear that France prefers a set of modular performance-based contracts instead.

Once the French approach has several years of data behind it, that kind of future cost certainty could be helpful on the export front.

That would be timely, because after over a decade of failure, exports may offer the program a 2nd ray of hope. Rafale versions were picked as the preferred choice in India’s MMRCA competition, and have several potential export contenders in the wings. They need to close a few of these deals – but that hasn’t been easy.

Rafale’s Export Issues

For previous French fighters, domestic production has been supplemented, and subsidized, by strong export sales. The Mirage III was exported to around 20 countries, and was so successful that its export profits could have financed almost 25% of France’s oil imports! The Mirage F1 was exported to only 10 countries. The Mirage 2000 has 8 customers. Rafale? None.

To date, the Rafale has lost export opportunities in Algeria (SU-30MKA – Rafale a long shot), Brazil (JAS-39E/F Gripen NG – Rafale the initial favorite), Greece (Eurofighter, then F-16), Morocco (F-16C/D – Rafale the favorite), The Netherlands (F-35A), Norway (F-35A), Oman (Eurofighter – Rafale a long shot), Saudi Arabia (Eurofighter), Singapore (F-15SG), South Korea (F-15K, Rafale won but politics reversed the pick), Switzerland (JAS-39E Gripen NG), and the UAE (F-16E/F, but could win next competition). Other losses have been rumored over the years.

In a March 2012 statement, Dassault CEO Charles Edelstenne threw its export issues into sharp relief. Translated:

“When one is in a country like India which is an open country and in which Americans do not have the same weight as countries that are their private hunting preserve, we have a chance. And this chance, we got it… The market for the Rafale, it is countries that do not want or can not buy or American countries who want to have a second source while buying American. Now all countries, except two, where we lost, were countries that did not fit this definition.”

There’s some truth to this statement, but it also elides many of the Rafale’s genuine problems. Questionable precision ground attack capabilities for Rafale F1-F2s, coupled with limited integration beyond French weapons, hurt the aircraft badly on the export market until mid-2011.

Ground attack capabilities have been fixed, but the Rafale’s EUR 100+ million price tag leaves it occupying a high-end market segment that has historically been responsible for just 25% of fighter export sales. That price gap beyond competitors like Saab’s Gripen, Lockheed Martin’s F-16, and Sukhoi’s SU-30 has also cost Dassault sales, most recently in Brazil and Switzerland.

Despite Dassault’s rosy projections for the global fighter market as a whole, therefore, their lack of foreign orders has choked expected investments, and started to feed back into platform modernization issues.

It’s also affecting the rest of the French air force. Lack of exports is forcing extra French funding, in order to keep the Rafale production line at its minimum sustaining rate. That extra spending is delaying the much-needed modernization of France’s Mirage 2000 fleet, and is beginning to pose an operational risk for France.

Current export opportunities for Dassault include:

• India (~126). Preferred choice, but no contract yet.
  
• Qatar (36). Could rise to 72 over time. The QEAF is looking to replace their 12 Mirage 2000D fighters and 6 combat capable Alpha Jet light aircraft, but the growing power vacuum is pushing them toward a larger buy. Competition: Eurofighter, F/A-18 Advanced Super Hornet, F-15 Strike Eagle.
  
• The UAE (60). Mirage 2000 customer. Negotiations have dragged for a long time.

Secondary opportunities include:

• Bahrain (12-18). Considered a low odds bid. Competition: Eurofighter, likely F-16V and F/A-18 Advanced Super Hornet.
  
• Canada (~65). F-35 partner. Very unlikely there there will even be a real competition.
  
• Kuwait (18-24). Considered a low odds bid. Competition: Eurofighter, F/A-18 Advanced Super Hornet.
  
• Malaysia (18). MiG-29N replacement on hold. Competition: JAS-39E/F Gripen NG, Eurofighter, F/A-18 Advanced Super Hornet, Sukhoi SU-30MKM.

Contracts and Key Events

November 14/18: F3-R standard approved France’s Defense Procurement Agency, DGA, accepts the F3-R-standard variant of the Rafale combat aircraft. The F-3R standard was launched in 2013 and features a range of software enhancements that allow for the integration of the Meteor BVRAAM and SBU-64 smart bombs. The enhancements also improve the jet’s Spectra self-defense system provided by Thales, and give it a new Friend-or-Foe interrogator/transponder with full Mode-5/ Mode-S-compatibility. Diagnostic improvements will make maintenance easier and more cost-effective. Approval from the French DGA was obtained on 31 October, says Dassault. Dassault will shortly begin development of the F4-standard Rafale, having completed initial feasibility studies for the program.

November 9/18: No Rafale for CAN French aerospace company Dassault is withdrawing from Canada’s fighter jet competition. Ottawa issued an initial draft bid package for 88 fighter aircraft to industry partners last month and expects their feedback by the end of this year. Dassault decided to withdraw from the competition due to concerns over Canada’s requirements for intelligence data sharing and interoperability, particularly with US forces. With the Rafale out of the race, the potential aircraft in the competition now include the F-35, the Eurofighter Typhoon, Saab’s Gripen and the Boeing Super Hornet. The upcoming fighter jet acquisition is priced at $12.2 billion, with the final bids required by May 2019.

September 12/18: IAF training mission A team of six Indian Air Force personnel is currently on a training mission in France. The team consists of a fighter pilot, an engineer and four technicians who are being trained on the Rafale jet, first of which will be introduced to the IAF in September 2019. The French-made jets were bought under a $8.8 billion emergency purchase to counter-weight a drop in IAF capabilities and fleet strength. Delivery of all 36 fighter aircraft is expected to be completed by end of 2022.

July 31/18: New missile development The French government is greenlighting the development of a new generation air-to-air missile. This program will renew the MICA of the Mirage 2000 and Rafale fighters in use by the Air Force and Navy. The MICA NG will be developed come in IR and electromagnetic variants and will replace the current MICA, whose withdrawal of service is expected between 2018 and 2013. The MICA NG is the first weapons program launched under France’s 2019-2025 Military Program Law. A Rafale can carry up to six Mica missiles. A Rafale pilot can release the MICA when intercepting an aircraft beyond visual range and can also fire the weapon from its rails when locked in a dogfight. The Rafale will also carry the Meteor missile to hit aircraft beyond visual range. The new missiles are scheduled for delivery between 2026 and 2031.

June 13/18: Qatar picks Lockheed’s Sniper The government of Qatar is planning to equip its Dassault Rafale fighter jets with Lockheed Martin Sniper targeting pods. Sniper is an electro-optical targeting system in a single, aerodynamically efficient pod weighing less than 450 pounds. The system is capable of detecting, identifying and engaging multiple moving and fixed targets in both air and earth-centric scenarios, but also presents an answer to the challenge of non-traditional intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions. Lockheed Martin’s AN/AAQ-33 Sniper ATP was designed to be a major step-change from the firm’s twin-pod LANTIRN systems, making use of a low radar signature profile and an advanced array of sensors and electronics, in order to offer longer range detection and identification. A universal interface, which self-detects the plane type it’s on and automatically load the appropriate Operational Flight Program, is an important time and money saving feature. The pod deliveries to the Qatar Emiri Air Force are scheduled to begin by 2019.

April 03/18: Qatar says “oui” to additional orders Qatar will buy additional Rafale fighter jets as part of an existing contract. Qatar initially purchased 24 Rafale jets in May 2015 for a total of $7.8 billion. The exercise of the option to purchase 12 additional fighter jets increases the total of the order to 36 aircraft. The deal includes the provision of missiles, pilot training and some 100 mechanics. The Rafale is a 9.5 – 10.5 tonne aircraft powered by 2 SNECMA M88 jet engines, each generating up to 16,500 pounds thrust with afterburner. Canards are used to improve maneuverability, especially for snap-shots in short-range dogfights, and radar shaping lowers the aircraft’s profile relative to 4th generation competitors like the Mirage 2000 or F-16. A combination of Scan and Track optronics allows the Rafale to supplement its radar-guided missiles with passively-targeted, no-warning attacks on enemy aircraft from beyond visual range. At present, this capability is only duplicated by Russian aircraft. Qatar so far bought 24 Eurofighter Typhoon, 6 Hawk trainers and F-15QA fighter aircraft.

March 12/18: US approval needed The head of Dassault Aviation, Eric Trappier, has said the French government must seek authorization from the US government before selling MBDA Scalp cruise missiles with American components to Egypt. “This is very sensitive,” Trappier said at a March 8 media conference on 2017 financial results. “This is a government-to-government contract. If there are authorizations, then it is up to the government for the component and the government for the aircraft.” A US State Department official said that “as a matter of policy, we do not comment on private diplomatic exchanges, and we are restricted under federal law from commenting on issues related to specific commercial defense export licensing cases.” The inclusion of Scalp missiles have been requested by Cairo as part of an exercised option for 12 additional Rafale fighter jets, adding to 24 ordered in 2015. The package includes the delivery of weapons from Safran and MBDA.

December 5/17: Foreign Military Sale-Negotiations France is close to finalizing a deal with Qatar to supply additional fighter aircraft and armored vehicles, a source to the presidential office said. One deal is to exercise and option to purchase 12 additional Rafale fighter jets, adding to the 24 already on order with manufacturer Dassault Aviation. Additional deals being discussed include an order of 300 VBCI armored vehicles from French firm Nexter, and a non-military deal to manage the Doha metro for 20 years. The deals could be concluded by the end of the week.

October 24/17: Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sissi is expected to use his trip to Paris this week to raise the issue with his French counterpart over purchasing additional Rafale fighters, as well as two more DCNS Gowind 2500 corvettes. Cairo currently has 24 Rafale fighters and four Gowind 2500 corvettes on order under a 2015 multi-billion contract signed with the previous French government. However, that deal was financed with the help of loans underwritten by the French government and it remains unclear whether Paris would extend fresh loans for further purchases. French President Emmanuel Macron is also expected to raise human rights abuses with al-Sissi, after receiving criticism at home for remaining silent in the face of increasing violations of freedoms by Sisi’s government in the run up to the 2018 presidential elections.

October 10/17: A French gambit to sell a Rafale fighter jet package to Belgium that went outside the official procurement program may not succeed, if comments from Belgium’s defense minister are to be believed. Speaking in parliament, Defence Minister Steven Vandeput told lawmakers that Paris had not responded correctly to a request for proposals (RfP) covering the replacement of its Lockheed Martin F-16 fleet, adding that the two bids officially received were from the UK and USA, respectively offering the Eurofighter Typhoon and Lockheed Martin F-35. However, Brussel’s has sought legal advice on the French position—34 warplanes plus a close relationship outside the parameters of the initial tender—and will be presented to the government by the end of October to inform a final decision on whether or not to rule out the Rafale.

September 11/17: The French government pulled out of a Belgian tender, due on September 7, for the replacement of its F-16 fighter aircraft. Instead, Paris is offering the Dassault Rafale as part of a military partnership that goes beyond the supply of weapons. In addition to the 36 jets required by Brussels, the French deal offers enhanced military cooperation between the two NATO countries, more training, and industrial and technical cooperation between companies on both sides. When asked about the new offer, manufacturer Dassault Aviation had no immediate comment, while the Belgian defence ministry said it would not comment until the process was finalised. Both Lockheed Martin and the Eurofighter consortium have submitted tenders to the original procurement program.

September 1/17: The Indian Air Force (IAF) is looking at additional orders of Rafale fighter aircraft from French aerospace manufacturer Dassault, doubling its current order of 36 units. Ministry of Defence (MoD) sources state that such a follow-on Rafale order would cost 60% of the initial package’s value (the September 2016 agreement cost $8.8 billion), which also includes weapon systems, India-specific customizations and a five-year support package guaranteeing an operational rate of 75%. Dassault hopes to sell as many as 200 Rafales to India over the next decade, with CEO Eric Trappier hinting that subsequent orders could lead to the transfer-of-technology to enable India to take on a substantive share of the fighter’s sourcing. Besides expanding upon IAF orders, Dassault is also looking at the Indian Navy’s bid for 57 carrier-borne fighters as an avenue for additional Rafale orders in the country.

July 31/17: Egypt has received its first of eight single-seat Dassault Rafale C multirole combat aircraft in the latest batch of Rafale deliveries from manufcaturer Dassault. This is the fifth batch of Rafale deliveries since Cario ordered the aircraft in 2015—the previous four only containing the twin-seat Rafale B variant—and the Egyptian Air Force will eventually operate a fleet of 24—8 Rafale Cs and 16 Bs. While most fighter customers receive twin-seat variants first to allow for the training of pilots ahead of the arrival of the fully operational single seaters, in the case of the Egyptian Rafale deal it appears that the EAF intends to use the Rafale Bs in a full combat role, with the additional crew member taking on a mission commander role.

July 19/17: India’s Dassault Rafale fighters on order from France will be equipped with Israeli firm Rafael’s Litening targeting pod. Yuval Miller, head of the Israeli company’s air and C4I systems division said that the pods, produced to the latest 4I island will be manufactured in India in partnership with a local firm. The Indian air force already uses the Rafael-produced pod on several types of combat aircraft, having acquired the system in the Litening III standard. Rafael also is to supply its advanced 4I version of the system for use by the Aeronautical Development Agency’s Tejas light combat aircraft.

June 14/17: Dassault and Indian partner Reliance Defense & Aerospace will break ground next month on a components facility for Rafale fighter aircraft. Construction of the facility comes as part of ‘Make in India’ commitments stipulated in September’s $8.8 billion Rafale fighter jet deal. Dassault are also currently training the first group of Indian engineers at its facilities in France, and the Indian facility is expected to be operational and producing components by the first quarter of 2018.

May 17/17: The CEO of French aviation firm Dassault, Eric Trappier, has told French media that the firm expects to sell an additional 18 Rafale fighters next year. In an interview with French regional newspaper Sud-Ouest on Sunday, Trappier hinted that the purchaser may by Malaysia, in a deal that could potentially be worth $2 billion. India has also been earmarked as a potential repeat customer after a high profile deal for 36 Rafales was concluded last year. “India’s needs are enormous,” said Trappier. “Hence, for its navy, 57 aircraft are considered,” he added. Malaysia, however, may be the more likely candidate for a deal to be finalized in the near term as it looks to replace its ageing combat aircraft.

April 2/17: French officials have told media that the Malaysian government is in exclusive negotiations with Dassault for their MiG-29 replacement program, indicating that the company’s Rafale fighter has won out against BAE’s offering of the Eurofighter Typhoon. Malaysia is looking to purchase 18 new combat aircraft — likely to be in the region of $2 billion — to replace the Royal Malaysian Air Force’s squadron of Russian MiG-29 combat planes, nearly half of which are grounded. The decision to move forward with Dassault follows last week’s visit by French President Francois Hollande.

March 28/17: The Malaysian government has said that it has yet to decide on whether it will go ahead with a $2 billion procurement of Rafale fighters from France. Bilateral talks between Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak and French President Francois Hollande did see the leaders discuss the aircraft deal, which aims at replacing Kuala Lumpur’s fleet of MiG-29 combat planes, half of which are grounded. Malaysia’s Defence Minister Hishammuddin Hussein was reported in the media as saying the race for new fighter jets has narrowed to the Dassault Rafale and the BAE Systems-built Eurofighter Typhoon. Speaking on the decision, President Hollande said, “all I would like to say is that the Rafale jet is the best in its category, and then we propose to discuss the prices, and the specifications. I trust you will make the decision when the time comes.”

March 26/17: The French government has approved key upgrades for the Rafale multi-role fighter which will bring the aircraft up to its F4 standard. Under the program, manufacturer Dassault will modernize legacy F3-R standard jets with updated technological capabilities that will boost their performance in a network and be more effective in combat missions, with Thales and Safran providing subsystems, and MBDA supplying missiles. It is expected that the F4 standard will begin qualification in 2018 and enter service by 2025.

March 23/17: Dassault’s Rafale is being touted as the preferred selection by Malaysia for their latest fighter procurement program. A pitch in fovor of the fighter is expected to be made during French President Francois Hollande’s visit to the country next week, and could initially be worth as much as $2 billion for 19 aircraft. Hollande’s arrival will be marked by a ceremony which will see two French Rafales join a Royal Malaysian Air Force A400M in a flypast at Subang airbase in Kuala Lumpur. Also in the hunt include BAE with the Eurofighter Typhoon, Russia’s Sukhoi and Sweden’s Saab, which is selling its single engine Gripen.

October 18/16: Thales’ new-generation TALIOS laser targeting pod has successfully completed a more than two-hour first flight on a Rafale fighter. Development of the pod has been carried out as part of a major development program for French Air Force and Navy Rafales. The company reported remarkable performances in pointing and telemetry from the pod with the system collecting high-quality images taken using the “day” channel. Adjustment and performance measurement tests with the pod and fighter will continue throughout 2017.

September 26/16: Well folks, it’s finally a done deal! France and India’s defense ministers inked contracts for 36 Dassault Rafale fighters on Friday, with pictures of French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and his Indian counterpart, Manohar Parrikar, surfacing on Parrikar’s Twitter account stating “Rafale will significantly improve India’s strike & defence capabilities.” Due to be delivered over the next six years, the Rafales are estimated to be worth $8.7 billion, haggled down from an original figure of $13.47 billion.

September 23/16: It may have taken a long while to get to this stage, but the Indian government is expected to sign a deal for 36 Dassault Rafale fighters today after the Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, cleared the inter-governmental agreement (IGA) with France. New Delhi had initially intended to buy 126 Rafale before several years worth of talks with Dassault broke down and Modi and Hollande stepped in last year to agree on the smaller purchase. Friday’s signing will see French defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian finalize the deal with his Indian counterpart, Manohar Parrikar, believed to be worth between $8.5 and $9 billion.

September 20/16: Dassault Rafale fighters purchased by the Indian government are believed to operate as the platform to take over the nuclear strike role from the Indian Air Force’s current fleet of Mirage 2000 fighters. It’s expected that a long awaited Inter-Government Agreement for the purchase of 36 of the French fighter will be announced over the next few days after New Delhi dropped its initial plan to procure 126 Rafales. While there is a follow up clause for an additional 12 Rafales, the IAF’s capability gap will be filled by either the indigenous Tejas fighters, or another foreign fighter such as the Gripen or F-16, both of which have been offered in conjunction with the “Make in India” initiative.

August 3/16: India and France are edging ever closer to closure on a potential $9 billion Rafale fighter deal. According to Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar, New Delhi has agreed to sign a long awaited inter-governmental agreement (IGA), a key requirement for a potential sale; however, negotiations on offsets and final pricing are still to be confirmed.

July 8/16: While reports of imminent French concessions to India reported last week may have seemed too good to be true, that was probably because they were. Instead, Paris is insisting on the signing of an $8.9 billion government-to-government deal with India prior to any finalization on offsets for New Delhi’s purchase of Rafael fighters. An Indian MoD procurement official said that no negotiations on the Rafale deal between France and India have taken place in more than six weeks, and the next meeting is yet to be scheduled.

June 01/16: This week’s Singapore Shangri-la Dialogue may see sideline discussions between France and India over the closing of a multi-billion sale of 36 Rafale fighters. The defense ministers from both nations will be in attendance, and it’s expected that issues like consensus on actions to be taken in case of a material breach, stringent liability clause, and guarantees by France are likely to be discussed.

May 23/16: Selection of a fighter to be manufactured under the “Make in India” initiative will be decided by next March according to India’s Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar. Models in the running include Boeing’s F18A, the Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault’s Rafale or the Saab Gripen. Parrikar also mentioned that the ministry’s negotiations over its drawn out purchase of 36 Rafales will be wrapped up in “weeks.”

May 6/16: India’s ongoing AgustaWestland helicopter bribery scandal is likely to cause further delay to the country’s perpetual Rafale fighter negotiation with France. An increasingly cautious government in New Delhi still hasn’t finalized an Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) with France as bilateral discussions continue to drag on. The $8.9 billion deal includes 36 Rafale fighters alongside state of the art stealth, radar, thrust vectoring for missiles, and materials for electronics and micro-electronics from defense companies Dassault, Thales and Safran.

April 18/16: After months of wrangling, India will sign a final agreement for the purchase of 36 Rafale fighters within the next three weeks. France had initially wanted over $12 billion for the sale, but negotiations over the last number of months have resulted in a drop to $8.8 billion. The first lot of deliveries will not take place for another 18 months. India’s air force replacement of its older fighters is part of an effort to effectively check the capabilities of Pakistan and China.

March 31/16: A $7.5 billion deal between Qatar and France has concluded, with Qatar to purchase 24 Rafale fighters alongside MBDA missiles, and training for 36 pilots and some 100 mechanics.The deal had been initially estimated to be $6.9 billion, but extra cruise missile orders pushed up the price. The contracts were signed by French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and his Qatari counterpart, Sheikh Khalid Al-Attiah, on the opening day of the Doha International Maritime Defence Exhibition and Conference. Despite this, the UK’s defence minister stated that a deal with Qatar to sell them Eurofighter Typhoon warplanes was “definitely still on the table” when speaking in Doha on Tuesday.

March 22/16: Qatar’s purchase of Dassault Rafale fighters has been financed with the help of Japanese banks. The Gulf state recently paid a 15% down payment on its order, which in total amounts to $6.8 billion. The loan highlights a growing relationship with Japan through Japanese business interests in areas of construction and finance. Investments and projects involving Japanese companies include construction for the 2022 World Cup, and the building of a subway system in Doha, while Qatar supplies liquefied gas to Japan. The participation of Japanese money in the deal comes as tighter EU financial regulations to European banks bring lending under greater scrutiny, while a US loan to buy French technology may have upset Boeing, a competitor to Dassault in the fighter market.

March 16/16: Dassault has experienced a 12-fold increase in defense exports in 2015. The defense wing of the company experienced an order intake for the year end (2015) at $9.2 billion compared to only $770 million in 2014. The staggering jump has been attributed to a year that involved the sale of 48 Rafale fighters to Egypt and Qatar, and further by the well publicized ongoing negotiations with India for a further 38 of the aircraft. Adding to the exceptionally good year was upgrade of the Indian Mirage 2000 fighter.

March 16/16: India’s Law Ministry has come out against the country’s Rafale deal, citing several issues in regard to the contract with French manufacturer Dassault and France. While the Defense Ministry has come out in support of the deal, refusing to answer any questions submitted by the media in relation to the issues, it seems that even a preliminary contract has yet to solidified. Costs and pricing still remain an issue, as well as a series of legal issues which are apparently weighted heavily in France’s favor. French liability has been described as “watered down,” with huge payouts not promising actual delivery. Furthermore, the French government continue in their refusal of a bank guarantee, instead offering a “comfort letter” from Prime Minister Manuel Valls.

January 29/16: India’s Rafale deal with France is expected to be complete within four months according to French ambassador to India, Francois Richier. Speaking to Indian television, it is the first time a senior official has given a time scale for the completion of the deal. President Francois Hollande had indicated earlier in the week that the process would take some time, but that there would be gradual progress on agreeing to a final sale price. Dassault had previously stated that a deal may be signed within a month after a signing of an inter-governmental agreement on Monday, but officials from both governments have admitted that the price may become somewhat of a sticking point. Richier also stated that he hoped that India would in time purchase more Rafale’s from Dassault after their initial order of 126 fighters was slashed to just thirty-six.

January 27/16: Dassault expects to have a contracts signed with India over their sale of Rafale fighters within a month. The company announced on Monday that both the French and Indian governments signed a tentative inter-governmental agreement on Monday during President Hollande’s recent state visit to India. The agreement will pave the way for Dassault to conclude the deal for thirty-six fighters once some final financial issues are sorted out over the next couple of days. The expected early delivery date for the jets were initially stated for between 2016-2017, but pre-existing contracts with Egypt, Quatar and the French Air Force may see these deliveries delayed.

January 22/16: Officials from Dassault are to fly to New Delhi to pitch a navalized version of the Rafale. With the sale of thirty-six of the fighters almost over the line, the French manufacturer looks to be capitalizing on the sale and arrangements to have parts of the aircraft produced in India. India is looking for potential suppliers for over fifty fighters for their second indigenous aircraft carrier vessel, the Vishal. Their first indigenous aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant is already under construction and will operate the MiG 29K, but no plans have been made to include it in the design for the Vishal. Sources said that India has written to four countries, including France, seeking proposals for the design of the aircraft carrier. Dassault’s visit will follow shortly after that of French President Francois Hollande’s visit this weekend.

January 18/16: The suspense surrounding India’s Rafale jet acquisition continues. With plans seemingly already in place for the deal to be finalized, India is looking to negotiate a new option to the existing deal to buy thirty-six fighters from Dassault. A visit to New Delhi by French defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian last week was initially seen as a final dotting of i’s and crossing of t’s on negotiations ahead of President Hollande’s visit next week. The Indian government seems to be more confident that the $9.1 million deal will be ready for the visit, claiming the contract to be “politically ready”.

January 12/16: India’s long awaited purchase of thirty-six Rafale fighters is set to be finalized as French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian is scheduled to visit New Delhi next week. It’s believed that the visit is specifically for the purpose of officially concluding the high-profile deal ahead of President Francois Hollande’s visit to the country. Hollande will visit as a guest to celebrate India’s Republic Day on January 26. France and manufacturer Dassault will no doubt be happy to see the deal secured, which has been ongoing for some time, and the cause of much haggling over price offsets and a deal to produce parts for the aircraft within India.

December 21/15: After some delay, Qatar has finally made their down-payment on their order of 24 Rafale fighters. The $7 billion deal had undergone a number of delays after initially being agreed upon in May. It had been feared that the deal would have stalled in the new year, but with only four shopping days left until Christmas, any issues over the deal seem to have been ironed out.

November 27/15: India is to sign a deal to purchase 36 Rafale fighters from France it has been announced. The signing coincides with French President Hollande’s visit to New Delhi to celebrate Republic Day. It is expected that the delivery of the Rafale fighters will be completed within seven years and is part of India’s move to increase its air force strength to maintain effectiveness against both China and Pakistan.

November 16/15: Qatar have still to make their downpayment for 24 Rafale fighters from France despite contracts being signed by both nations six months ago. The deal, which is worth approximately $7 billion cannot be executed by manufacturer Dassault until such a payment is made and will no doubt be on the agenda for Qatari prime minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa al-Thani’s visit to Paris this week. The visit is said to go ahead despite last Friday’s terrorist attack in Paris.

November 12/15: The United Arab Emirates is reportedly close to signing an agreement for Rafale fighters, with the sixty-aircraft deal slated to value approximately $10 billion. Similar talks between the UAE and manufacturer Dassault collapsed in November 2011, but were revived in April 2015.

October 26/15: French firm Dassault has offered the Rafale fighter to Canada as an alternative to the F-35. The new Canadian PM looks set to withdraw from the international Joint Strike Fighter program, pushing up the cost of the other partners’ fighter in the process, although this still remains to be officially finalized. Dassault has offered the country its Rafale fighter.

October 23/15: France has reportedly agreed to invest half of the value of the contract for 36 Rafale fighters in Indian industry, with negotiations ongoing. The offset agreement is now thought to have paved the way for further negotiations over the sale of the fighters, which was first originally announced in April, following the collapse of the M-MRCA competition. The negotiations reached a sticking point in August over offset arrangements, with high level intervention in September kicking talks forward. Another potential issue has been identified as the Indian insistence on installing the indigenous Astra missile on the French fighters.

August 17/15: One sticking point in the ongoing government-to-government negotiations between India and France over the procurement of 36 Rafales has reportedly been identified. The Indian Air Force wants to modify the fighters to carry the indigenous Astra air-to-air missile, with the French refusing to do so; citing the associated cost increases with the required recertification such a move would entail. These contract negotiations have been playing out since the Indian Prime Minister announced the acquisition in April. The French government has lowered the per-unit cost of the deal, dropping this by 25% in May. They are offering French missiles instead of the Astra, likely manufactured by European missile house MBDA. The Indian Air Force also wants to integrate an Israeli-manufactured helmet display system, something which the French are unlikely to allow.

Additionally, French negotiators have reportedly rejected Indian proposals for a 50% offset arrangement in the Rafale contract negotiations. The French government has responded by offering to manufacture aircraft in India through future contracts, under the ‘Make in India’ procurement framework. Indian insistence on an offset will drive up the price of the 36 Rafales, which are currently on offer for the same price being paid by the French Air Force, following the aforementioned price drop in May.

July 30/15: France is anticipating an additional pair of export orders for its Rafale fighter, with Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates reportedly the most likely candidates. Reuters also reported Thursday that negotiations between India and France are now also discussing the possible supply of additional Rafales on top of the 36 ordered in April. Malaysia is looking to replace its MiG-29 Fulcrums, with the UAE recently restarting negotiations for the Rafale as it looks to swap out its fleet of Mirage 2000-9 fighters. The Gulf state has previously articulated a potential buy of sixty Rafales.

July 21/15: Rafale manufacturer Dassault is increasing the production rate of the fighter in anticipation of more export orders. The French jet has become an export success in recent months, following orders from Egypt, India and Qatar. The production line has recently come under strain because of the mounting orders, with the delivery rate from Dassault’s assembly line in Merignac, south-west France, set to double from the current rate of eleven per year by 2018, according to the company’s CEO.

July 17/15: Photos have emerged showing Rafale fighters flying in Egyptian colors. Egypt ordered twenty-four of the French aircraft in February, recently opting to buy AASM Hammer precision air-to-ground missiles to equip its new fleet. The first three Egyptian Rafales are due for delivery before 5 August.

May 7/15: France reportedly offered India a 25% price drop in order to seal the deal for 36 Rafales in April. The French also agreed to an extended maintenance schedule, with the 36 fighters thought to be the minimum number they would sell. The deal is thought to bring the per-unit cost of the Rafale to around $220 million, far below the approximate $300 million pricetag which became the death-knell for the Indian negotiations with Dassault. The recently announced Qatari order saw a comparable cost of $290 million per aircraft.

May 5/15: Following the acquisition of 36 Rafale fighters in April through government to government negotiations – side-lining India’s negotiations with manufacturer Dassault – the Indian Defense Minister announced on Monday that further negotiations between the French and Indian governments will begin this month. The Rafale’s selection as preferred bidder in the country’s MMRCA competition subsequently stagnated, with Prime Minister Modi bypassing the negotiations following pressure from the Indian Air Force. The French Defense Minister will visit India later this week, during which time the opening negotiations for more government to government Rafales are expected to begin.

March 10/15: Egypt says yes. Egypt will buy 24 Dassault Rafale fighters. Egypt already flies predecessors Mirage Vs and Mirage 2000s, and was once looking at upgrading its already large fleet of F-16s to more modern versions. Dassault’s fighters have the benefit of not having many political strings attached, and for a government arguably installed by coup, this has a certain charm.

Feb-17/15: India recalculates that Dassault wasn’t low bidder.The negotiation-via-newspapers exchange continues between France’s Dassault and India in regard to the Indian purchase of Rafale fighters. India’s MoD is now saying that upon thinking about it a bit more – for three years – they think the Dassault offer is going to be more expensive than some other, rejected bidders. Being India’s first life cycle costing contract, the RFP for 126 fighters did not demand specific information on some items relevant to that cost cycle, according to an unnamed official involved with the contract negotiation committee.

Feb-16/15: India’s hardcore negotiating not phasing Dassault. India has been sending messages through the press that it is ready to walk away from the Rafale deal. Dassault, for it’s part, isn’t biting, expressing confidence in the 126 fighter deal. Some reports indicated India is pressuring Dassault to make unspecified guarantees regarding the manufacture of the fighters. The French procurement agency DGA defended Dassault, indicating that Dassault will not be responsible for HAL-built fighters.

Oct 6-17/14: F3.4+ Testing. The French DGA tests the F-3.4+ software upgrade at Mont-de-Marsan AB. It should enter operational service in early 2015.

The F3.4+ builds on the current F3.3 standard’s improvements to Link-16 and integration of laser-guided weapons includes many software improvements, adding full compatibility with NATO’s MGRS geographic format for GPS-related functions, radar improvements in terrain following mode, new warnings for low altitudes and unusual positions that are designed to snap pilots out of disorientation, and warnings to prevent overloading the landing gear brakes during take-off. Sources: French AdlA, “Le Rafale F3.4+ experimente a Istres”.

Oct 3/14: F1 to F3. Dassault Aviation in Merignac, France re-delivers aircraft M10 to the Marine Nationale, after upgrading it from F1 to F3 status under a EUR 240 million contract for 10 aircraft.

Modifications include swapping out the core mission computer and cockpit displays, and changing the plane’s radar, electrical wiring, SPECTRA countermeasures system, and hardpoints. In return, the jump to F3 status adds implementation of all currently planned modes for the RBE2 radar, incl. radar ground attack and terrain-following modes; full integration with the Reco NG reconnaissance pod and Damocles surveillance and targeting pod; MICA IR air-to-air missile capability using the OSF IRST sensor; carriage of laser-guided bombs and Storm Shadow/ Scalp cruise missiles;anti-ship attack with the Exocet or follow-on ANF; nuclear strike capability using the ASMP-A missile; a Link 16 datalink, and a buddy tanker pod. They do not include the RBE2-AA AESA radar antenna, but the jet could reportedly be refitted with that later on.

Of the 180 Rafales ordered by France to date, 133 have been delivered, including Rafale-M F2s and F3s for the Marine Nationale. The contract only applies for the first 10 orders, which were delivered as Rafale-M F1s. Rafale fighters are currently executing missions against ISIS in Iraq, after seeing combat use in Afghanistan, Libya, Mali, and Central Africa. Sources: French DGA, “La DGA receptionne le premier Rafale Marine retrofite” | Dassault Aviation, “The French defense procurement agency (DGA) takes delivery of its 1st retrofitted Rafale “Marine” from Dassault Aviation” | Navy Recognition, “The French procurement agency takes delivery of its 1st retrofitted Rafale M from Dassault Aviation”.

June 19-23/14: Qatar. Reports continue to predict that Sheikh Tamim Ben Hamad Al-Thani’s visit to Paris on June 23/14 will herald a contract for 36 Rafales, with an option for 36 more. The move would represent the Rafale’s 1st export contract, and a dramatic expansion of Qatar’s fighter force from the current fleet of 12 Mirage 2000s.

With that said, the best source is France’s La Tribune. They cite government sources who are pleased with the progress of negotiations, while cautioning readers about the deal’s complexity, and doubting that the Rafale deal will be signed in Paris. That turns out to be correct: France’s Alstom wins a $2 billion light rail contract, but all “a source close to French President Francois Hollande” will says after ward is: “They discussed it. Negotiations are continuing.”

Qatar is a significant customer for French defense equipment, and their support of the Muslim Brotherhood has given then an anomalous position within the Gulf Arab states. France recently sold them A330 aerial tankers and NH90 helicopters as part of a $23 billion global splurge, and are reportedly negotiating to sell the Emirate VBCI wheeled APCs and FREMM FREDA air defense frigates on top of the Rafales. Sources: La Tribune, “Le Qatar veut le Rafale de Dassault Aviation” | Bloomberg, “Dassault Said to Close in on Rafale Contract to Lift Exports” | Reuters, “France wins Qatar tram deal, discusses Rafale jets”.

May 28/14: Qatar. La Tribune says that France’s Rafale has emerged as Qatar’s 1st choice for its new fighter fleet, against competition from the Eurofighter Typhoon and an American offer that was not the F-35 (i.e. F-15 Strike Eagle or F/A-18 Super Hornet – q.v. Nov 26/13). Talks reportedly resumed in March 2014, with Qatar inquiring about a range of options from 12-72 aircraft. The pick is expected to be announced by Sheikh Tamim Ben Hamad Al-Thani on June 23/14, when he visits Paris.

The stakes are high for France, whose recent multi-year budget would buy only 26 Rafales from 2014 – 2019, despite a minimum required production rate of 11 jets per year. The French order would only last until the spring of 2016. Given the contract penalties involved in falling below minimum production, France would be forced to move its own orders forward, unless significant export orders arrive to rescue the production line. Sources: La Tribune, “Le Rafale de Dassault sur la piste d’envol au Qatar?” | AFP, “Qatar nears exclusive talks on buying Rafale fighter: Report” | Gulf News, “Qatar nears talks to buy ‘unpopular’ Rafale fighter jets”.

Jan 22/14: Canada. Dassault SVP of NATO affairs Yves Robins is quoted as saying that they’re offering Canada unrestricted transfers of technology if it picks the Rafale, including software source codes for servicing the planes. That’s something Canada won’t get with the F-35, and it’s being touted as a long-term cost savings that will let Canadian firms do more of the required maintenance. They’re also pushing the government to declare a competition.

The CBC report goes on to show that the broadcaster doesn’t really grasp the issues, asking about the Rafale’s ability to operate alongside the USAF. France replies that this worked over Libya, but that isn’t the real question. The question is whether Canada could use its American weapons with the Rafale, without having to conduct expensive integration and testing programs. In most cases, the answer is no. Which is why Rafale is a long shot, in the unlikely event that Canada even declares a competition. Sources: CBC News, “Dassault Aviation ramps up CF-18 replacement pitch”.

Dec 10/13: Sub-contractors. PTI reports that Dassault Aviation and India’s NYSE-listed Reliance Industries are planning to set up a Bangalore facility to produce Rafale wings for India’s future order, and reportedly have the approvals they need to do so. The facility would reportedly cost about INR 10 billion ($248 million) to build, but the ultra-modern facility would leave Reliance in a strong position to leverage additional civil and defense-related aerospace work. That would be a new sector for Reliance, but Dassault is impressed with them, and reportedly wanted to use Reliance as the Rafale’s main Indian manufacturing contractor.

India’s government insisted on the state-owned HAL instead, but Dassault may still see a larger opportunity. If Reliance can produce quality assemblies at a cost savings, outsourcing some production for future orders could help Dassault lower their cost per jet, while meeting India’s targets for industrial offsets. Sources: FirstPost.Business, “Reliance, Dassault may join hands to make wings for Rafale fighter jets”.

Nov 26/13: Qatar. La Tribune cites a number of French export opportunities in Qatar, including 22 NH90 transport/naval helicopters (bought), up to 480 VBCI wheeled infantry fighting vehicles, Gowind ASW corvettes, FREMM air defense frigates, and SAMP/T Mamba air and missile defense systems.

The Rafale has been helped by the USA’s failure to respond to the fighter RFP (q.v. Nov 10/13), and their Swedish Gripen competitor wasn’t even invited to bid. Qatar already uses French weapons on their Mirage 2000s, and their defense purchases are far more straightforward than India’s, leading to optimism that the Rafale’s 1st export sale could take place in the Middle East. If Qatar really does want a mixed fleet, the Rafale’s competition narrows to only the Eurofighter. Sources: La Tribune, “La France au Moyen-Orient (3/5) : le Qatar premier client du Rafale?”.

Nov 10/13: Qatar. Qatar’s competition will be delayed because the US Dept. of State couldn’t get their act together in time to issue all of the necessary export approvals. The QEAF is looking to replace their 12 Mirage 2000D fighters and 6 combat capable Alpha Jet light aircraft, but the neighborhood’s growing dangers are pushing them toward a larger buy. A split buy within their maximum total of 72 is seen as a real possibility, and some observers even see a potential split buy among the initial planned set of 36 planes. The initial decision was supposed to come down by the end of 2013, but will now take place in mid-2014.

Dassault already has a foothold here, and the Qataris are exactly the kind of customer they need to win. Eurofighter buys in Saudi Arabia and Oman have opened the door in the Gulf, and a UAE turn toward the platform could cement it as the Gulf Cooperation Council’s future standard. On the flip side, Rafale wins in the UAE and Qatar could open doors to tougher GCC customers like Bahrain and Kuwait.

The US State Department was reportedly wrestling with a pair of Boeing platforms as alternatives: the F/A-18 Super Hornet, and the F-15 Strike Eagle family. The later group includes the stealth-enhanced F-15SE, as well as the Saudis’ new F-15SA standard. Despite ongoing rumors regarding interest in the F-35 stealth fighter, Defense News reports that it isn’t a factor yet. Sources: Defense News, “US Bid Delays Qatar Jet Competition”.

October 2013: Need for Exports. As France is working on its 2014-19 defense budget law, the need to finalize an export order becomes ever more acute. To meet the French government’s baseline financial scenario, 7 out of 11 planes delivered in 2016 would already have to go abroad, which means a firm order has to be locked in by mid-2014 as jets for foreign customers would have their own configuration. France’s DGA procurement agency pays for Rafales in 3 installments. If exports don’t pan out in time, they may have to face difficult cash management trade-offs. Source : Les Echos, Rafale : le plan B de Dassault et de la DGA [in French] | LPM 2014-19: MINDEF, Legifrance [both in French].

October 17/13: India. Deputy chief of air staff Air Marshal S. Sukumar said during a conference that the contract with Dassault will be finalized before the end of the government’s current fiscal year, which ends on March 31st, 2014. Sukumar is a former flying instructor with 4,000+ flight hours who took his current job in December last year. Dassault was really hoping to get this done in 2013, but the sudden death of chief negotiator Arun Kumar Bal on October 2 must not have helped an already slow process. Source: Reuters, India to finalize Rafale deal this fiscal year.

October 2013: Canada. Yves Robins, a senior vice-president for corporate communications at Dassault Aviation, pitched Diane Finley, Canada’s Minister of Public Works and Government Services, during an Aerospace Summit luncheon. Robins urged Canada to run a full competition to replace its CF-18s and played the industrial cooperation card by reminding the minister that Dassault buys engines from Pratt & Whitney Canada for its Falcon business jets, and promising full technology and intellectual property transfer.

Mr. Robins is familiar with the fact Canada so far selected the JSF without a competition, as this came up when he met with the National Defence Committee in Parliament 3 years ago. At the time Robins insisted on the Rafale’s open design which would let it host Canada’s US-made weapons, though he refrained to say how much that would add to the price tag. Montreal Gazette: Aviation execs seek wide open competition for Canada’s fighter jet contract | National Defence Committee on Nov. 4th, 2010.

Sept 19/13: 4th tranche. The French DGA confirms that they’ve received the 1st “4e tranche” Rafale, a twin-sea Rafale-B for the air force. It includes the new RBE2-AA AESA radar, an improved electronic warfare system, and upgraded IFF. All are part of the “Rafale F3R,” but Meteor missile integration won’t happen until 2018.

The DGA also offers a snapshot of deliveries to date: 121 aircraft, including 38 Rafale-Ms, plus 44 Rafale-C and 39 twin-seat Rafale-B fighters for the air force. Source: French DGA.

Sept 13/13: Weapons. Russia’s Tactical Missile Corporation (TRV) told journalists at MAKS 2013 that they’re negotiating with Dassault Aviation for the possible use of their missiles on India’s Rafales. India bought MBDA’s MICA air-to-air missiles for its Mirage 2000s, and Paveway-II guided bombs are already in use by the IAF, but Rafale-compatible weapons don’t otherwise feature prominently in India’s existing stocks.

The ability to use Russian weapons would help the Rafale in some export competitions, but it doesn’t come for free. Unless the TRV/Dassault partnership develops a Universal Weapon Interface for TRV’s products, and probably modifies a number of the missiles themselves, that kind of integration and testing is time-consuming and expensive. How much less expensive than buying new weapons? And what’s the capability/ reliability payoff if India buys French products instead? That’s what negotiations, and Indian business analysts, need to determine. Sources: TRV Products page, via WayBack 2013 | AIN, “Russian Missiles for India’s Rafales?”

June 20/13: India. IANS reports that India’s Minister of State for Defence Jitendra Singh told an audience at the 50th Paris Air Show that the Rafale deal:

“…is not stuck anywhere. It is the biggest deal of its kind in the world and, of course, a very complex one too. They are talking to HAL and the private sector companies in India as well; so it is progressing…”

In his first Le Bourget press conference

as Dassault CEO, Eric Trappier had made a similar-sounding statement a week earlier.

June 20/13: Qatar. AFP says that the Middle Eastern Emirate intends to launch its RFP for 24-36 fighters “soon.” They own a fleet of Mirage 2000-5s, which recently flew to enforce the no-fly zone over Libya.

French President Hollande will visit Doha for high-level economic talks on June 22, and France has close ties with the Emirate, but the Qataris aren’t waiting around. They reportedly spent time in May 2013 evaluating the Eurofighter Tornado with the RAF, and will soon host a Eurofighter team in-country for flight trials. Boeing also remains in the mix. Agence France Presse.

June 12/13: French defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian reminds Dassault that they will need to rely on exports after French orders are done. They can’t be all that surprised, given a minimum delivery of 11 planes per year, and the April 29/13 White Paper’s reduction of the French fleet to 225 planes.

With 180 already ordered and 120 received, orders will stop sometime between 2016-2019, probably in 2017. The problem with these kinds of public reminders is that they make negotiations more difficult for Dassault, and may end up reducing export sales instead of spurring them. On the other hand, there have been reports of frustration in Paris over Dassault’s pricing and flexibility; if true, this kind of public reminder is one way to send a message. L’Usine Nouvelle [in French].

May 16/13: Meteor. The Rafale team continues to work on integrating MBDA’s Meteor long-range air-to-air missile in time for 2018, which will make the Rafale the last core platform to become operational. It will also be the only platform with a 1-way datalink, as Rafale uses the same transmit-only system for MICA and Meteor.

Saab’s JAS-39 Gripens will be operational by 2014, and Eurofighter GmbH eventually signed a June 2013 contract with a 2017 in-service date. Both fighters will have 2-way datalinks.

Late May will see over-water release trials begin at the Cazaux flight test centre, with 2 tests (high-g, and high angle of attack) scheduled before the end of 2013. The 1st controlled and boosted launch is slated for 2015. France placed an initial order for 200 Meteors in January 2011, and missile production began in June 2012. Flight Global.

April 28/13: Coming cuts. France releases their defense white paper (Livre Blanc) for 2013, which aims to set their force structure to 2025. With respect to the air assets, by 2025 they’re planning for:

“…les forces aériennes comprendront notamment 225 avions de combat (air et marine), ainsi qu’une cinquantaine d’avions de transport tactique, 7 avions de détection et de surveillance aérienne, 12 avions ravitailleurs multirôles, 12 drones de surveillance de théâtre, des avions légers de surveillance et de reconnaissance et 8 systèmes sol-air de moyenne portée.”

Translation: 225 fighters (all Rafale, cut from 234), about 50 tactical transport aircraft (A400Ms and CN-235s), 7 E-3F AWACS planes, 12 A330 MRTT aerial tankers and transports, 12 MALE drones and an unspecified number of light surveillance planes, and 8 SAMP/T long-range air and missile defense batteries. Note that original plans for the Rafale had involved 294 planes. Livre Blanc 2013 [PDF, in French].

March 8/13: Brazil. Brazil has asked the 3 F-X2 finalists to extend their bids for another 6 months from the March 30/13 deadline, as the Brazilian commodity economy remains mired in a 2-year slump. The competitors had hoped for a decision by the time Brazil’s LAAD 2013 expo opened in April.

The length of the cumulative delays could create changes for the bids, and it effectively squashes any faint hopes that the new jets would be able to fly in time for the 2014 World Cup. Reuters.

Feb 25/13: With Rafales flying combat missions again, in Mali, Jane’s reports that France will designate a new round of improved Rafales as “F3R”. They’ll include a major software upgrade that allows the aircraft to take fuller advantage of the new Thales RBE2-AA AESA radar, improves their Thales SPECTRA self-defence systems, adds Mode-5/Mode-S capable Identification Friend or Foe, and allows the Rafale to deploy MBDA’s Meteor long range air-to-air missile. IHS Jane’s.

Feb 7/13: India. While a French Rafale-B performs at Aero India 2013, negotiations grind on. India’s defence minister, A K Antony, describes negotiations as a 6-7 layer process, which then has to be sent to the Ministry of Finance. There will be no deal during Aero India, as the contract simply isn’t ready. Antony adds that coming defense budget cuts won’t delay the Rafale deal, but an election looms in 2014.

India’s Financial Express cites anonymous “highly placed sources” who say that remaining friction involves industrial issues. The Dassault team that visited the HAL facility in Nashik were said to have been disappointed by the infrastructure in place, and concerned that HAL will have trouble absorbing the required technology. They’re also reportedly wrestling with India’s insistence on giving HAL ‘lead integrator’ responsibility for decisions about workshare with other companies, while sticking Dassault with overall responsibility for the project. The French are trying to use the RFP as a starting point for discussions, while India insists that the RFP’s terms are the final word. Economic Times | Financial Express.

Oct 30/12: From Damocles to PDL NG. The unofficial site Rafale News quotes the latest issue of Air & Cosmos (N°2305), who says that the Rafale’s future surveillance and targeting pod won’t be an upgraded Damocles pod, whose 320×240 infrared sensor is very small compared to competitors.

Instead, France is reportedly planning to invest EUR 450 million to develop and produce 45 PDL NGs (Pod de Designation Laser Nouvelle Generation), to equip both Rafales and Mirage 200Ds. The new pods will reportedly have a 1280×1024 equivalent IR resolution, by using a 640×560 array plus a micro-scanning technique. Better GPS/INS geolocation will have accuracy that matches the new AASM smart bombs. In terms of its shape and design, PDL NG is expected to offer carrier landing compatibility, and provide a lower radar cross-section.

Oct 4-10/12: Meteor. Rafale B301, operating from Cazaux DGA Flight Test Center in southwestern France, successfully completes 2 successful tests of the Meteor long-range air-to-air missile.

Sept 27/12: Media are forecasting a signed M-MRCA fighter deal with India before the end of their fiscal year, in April 2013. That’s certainly possible, but India’s history suggests that any such expectation is a very risky bet. Usine Nouvelle [in French].

Aug 23/12: India. L’Usine Nouvelle say that any India deal will be done as a series of agreements to produce specific items, with the scope growing over time. They also say that over 50% of initial production will remain in France, even after the initial 18 fighters are delivered, until Indian production expands. Beyond the engines, which are very likely to remain in France, the article cites complex electronics, and especially Thales RBE2-AA AESA radar, as being difficult to transfer. India’s failure with its Tejas fighter’s multi-mode radar, which was a generation behind AESA, does lend credence to that view.

Meanwhile, highly placed Russian and German sources say that India and Russia are having trouble coming to agreement on technology transfer and price, and say that the M-MRCA competition isn’t closed yet. The Hindu | IBN Live | Times of India | L’Usine Nouvelle [in French].

July 11/12: India. Indian defense minister Antony effectively ends contention over the Rafale’s selection as L1, the lowest evaluated bid. Replying to the Feb 27/12 letter from Rajya Sabha member MV Mysura Reddy:

“The issues raised by you were examined by independent monitors who have concluded that the approach and methodology adopted by the Contract Negotiations Committee (CNC) in the evaluation of the commercial proposals thus far, have been reasonable and appropriate and within the terms of the Request for Proposals (RFR) and Defence Procurement Procedure, 2006.”

India’s history shows that this is a big moment for the M-MRCA program, preventing its derailment and allowing negotiations toward a contract to continue. Hindustan Times.

July 9/12: Sim upgrade. Thales announces that France’s DGA procurement agency has accepted the 1st F3.2 simulator upgrade, to the first 2 cabins at the simulation centre in Saint-Dizier. The Rafale Transformation Squadron in Saint-Dizier has a total of 4 cabins, and the 2 upgraded simulators will faithfully replicate the F3 Rafale’s ability to use AM39 Exocet anti-ship missiles, ASMP/A nuclear missiles, the advanced Reco-NG surveillance pod, and the Damocles targeting pod.

The 2 cabins at the Rafale simulation center in Landivisiau will be upgraded to the F3.2 standard in the summer of 2013.

July 7/12: Brazil. The FAB has asked the 3 bidders (Boeing, Dassault & Saab) to renew their F-X2 fighter offers. It’s the 4th consecutive 6-month extension, while Brazil dithers over its choice and the timing of the buy. France24.

July 7/12: Wi-Fi of Doom. Raytheon announces that it has integrated its dual-mode GBU-49 Enhanced Paveway II laser/GPS guided smart bombs onto France’s Rafale-M fighters, after successful tests at Bisacrosse. The Marine Nationale had been using the 250 kg weapons for 6 years on their trans-sonic Super Etendard Modernisee naval fighters, and they wanted their supersonic naval Rafales to have the same capability. The challenge was how to do that without spending all the time and money that full weapon integration usually requires.

Enter Raytheon’s WiPAK. The WiPAK kit consists of a small wireless transmitter in the cockpit, a pilot interface, and a small receiver affixed to the Paveway weapon. Raytheon VP Harry Schulte explains that “WiPAK uses wireless connectivity technology similar to what is being used in laptop and tablet computers.” Hopefully, it’s more resistant to jamming. Raytheon describes WiPAK as “a combat proven system, used operationally on counterinsurgency aircraft.”

The tests open the door to competition against Safran’s emerging dual-mode SBU-64 AASM Hammer smart bombs. France’s air force already uses GBU-49s from their Mirage 2000D fighters, so a similar conversion for AdlA Rafale-B/Cs is an obvious opportunity.

April 20/12: Refit. The DGA’s Christophe Carpentier discusses some of the complexities involved in the 10-plane Rafale-M refit, which is upgrading these F1 aircraft to an F3 standard that will add precision ground attack, reconnaissance, and even nuclear warhead delivery to their capabilities. The biggest challenge is that the upgrades take place on the Rafale production line, so careful scheduling is essential to avoid disrupting new-plane production. French MdlD [in French]. See also Nov 30/09 entry.

March 22/12: Rafale exports. Dassault CEO Charles Edelstenne discusses the Rafale’s export issues, while making the most of the Rafale’s win against the Eurofighter in India. His characterization is unpromising, since it concedes American dominance of the global fighter market, leaving the Rafale as the choice of countries that don’t buy American, or make reduced dependence on American arms a priority.

There’s some truth to this, as shown by Dassault’s experience in South Korea. On the other hand, it’s also true that the Rafale has lost export competitions over price and technical features. Usine Nouvelle [in French]

March 22/12: India. Indian Defence minister A.K. Antony orders the Ministry to probe all of the allegations made by Rajya Sabha (Parliamentary upper house) member M.V. Mysoora Reddy. The Telgu Dessam party representative filed an official complaint on Feb 27/12, over alleged irregularities in the evaluation process that designated France’s Rafale as the L-1 lowest cost option for India. The probe is expected to delay the process by a couple of months, if nothing surfaces. If the claims get any traction, India’s procurement process could come to a complete halt. Read “India’s M-MRCA Fighter Competition” for full coverage.

March 20/12: Canada? As Canada’s government gives conflicting signals about its F-35A commitment, and braces for a scathing Auditor General report about their pledged buy, Dassault’s Rafale may get an opening:

“The likeliest contenders, should there be a competition, are U.S.-based Boeing, maker of the F-18 Super Hornet, and Dassault of France, maker of the Rafale… “In our world we’re already in a competition,” one industry insider said. “(Associate Defence Minister) Fantino himself said we’re basically looking at our options. There’s a team at (Department of National Defence) looking at the market. So it’s already on.”

Despite this report, Canada’s considerable stockpile of American-made air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons adds huge additional switching costs to an already-expensive Rafale aircraft, and makes it a very unlikely challenger. Post Media.

Feb 22/12: UK Rafales? French DGA head Lauren Collet-Billon tells a press conference that the extent of carrier cooperation with Britain will depend on Britain’s final plans and choices. With respect to fighter jets, Defense Aerospace quotes him saying that the F-35:

“…is an ambitious program, and like all ambitious programs it faces a number of challenges… If one day we have to lend Rafale Ms to the Royal Navy, why not? Personally, I’d find that very pleasing.”

Issues with the F-35 program are indeed putting Britain in a bind, but cost issues with the CVF carriers’ catapult retrofit may make any catapult-launched fighter problematic for Britain.

Jan 31/12: What is the Rafale to France? L’Usine Nouvelle’s article asks: “A quoi sert le Rafale?” – The short answer is that it’s at the heart of French military power thanks to its carrier and nuclear roles, as well as its central role in French conventional wars. It’s also the industrial heart of France’s advanced military aerospace research, responsible for significant steps forward in French materials science, engine design, computing, sensors, etc. at Dassault, Thales, and Snecma. Not to mention over 500 sub-contractors, all of whom are made nervous by uncertainty. In total, the aircraft is said to be responsible for 7,000 direct and indirect jobs.

Unfortunately, lack of exports is forcing extra funding to keep the Rafale production line at its minimum. Which is delaying the much-needed modernization of France’s Mirage 2000D fleet, and beginning to pose an operational risk for France.

Jan 29/12: Swiss cheese. Dassault makes Switzerland a new offer: 18 Rafale fighters for SFR 2.7 billion (EUR 2.24 billion, $2.96 billion), instead of 22 Gripens for SFR 3.1 billion.

This is, frankly, the kind of approach that has cost Dassault sales in other countries. If this offer is substantially less than Dassault’s earlier offer to the Swiss, the Swiss could be forgiven for asking what has changed, and why the previous offer was so high. Meanwhile, submitting offers after a competition is done doesn’t win many friends in military or ministry circles.

In this case, however, the audience is the Swiss parliament, which is supposed to begin discussing the fighter buy on Feb 13/12. Hans Hess of parliament’s security commission confirmed to Le Matin Dimanche that he had received the letter. What’s deeply troubling is that Swiss defence minister Ueli Maurer told the Sonntags Zeitung that he wasn’t aware of the offer. If that’s true, the decision to blindside the minister reflects even more poorly on the Dassault executive responsible. That kind of behavior goes well beyond a normal political battle, and can create powerful enemies whose grudges are deep, personal, and lasting. AFP via Yahoo | France 24.

Nov 16/11: What’s up in the UAE? The UAE is either engaged in the mother of all hardball negotiations, or the potential Rafale sale is crashing. Meanwhile, the UAE may be about to cut its planned new jet order and buy more F-16E/F Block 60s, regardless of what happens next. Read “Derailed Denouement in Dubai: What’s Up With the UAE’s Fighter Deal?” for a snapshot.

June 20/11: Defense News’ Paris 2011 Show Scout covers Dassault executive chairman Charles Edelstenne’s comments re: the Rafale & M-MRCA. It includes this important point:

“The French government has made export of the Rafale a “priority” because of the perceived importance of the fighter industry in political, technological and economic terms, and also because of the domestic budgetary needs, Edelstenne said. France has written into its defense budgets export of the Rafale, and if those foreign sales fail to appear, funding must be found from other defense programs to finance an annual output of 11 aircraft, the minimum deemed for economic sense.”

April 27/11: India finalist. After a close call where it was nearly drummed out of India’s future fighter competition, the Rafale rallies. India’s M-MRCA competition is now a one-on-one duel between the Rafale, and EADS/ BAE/ Finmeccanica’s Eurofighter Typhoon.

Feb 9/11: RBE2-AA. Thales announces that “a comprehensive programme of flight tests conducted between September and December 2010” have validated its new AESA RBE2 radar for the Rafale. The announcement makes the Rafale the first of the 4+ generation European fighters to qualify with an AESA radar.

By confirming that the radar’s performance complies with the “Roadmap” contract, awarded by the French DGA, Thales can begin series production for installation into the Rafale Tranche 4 planes that were ordered in 2009, and will be delivered by Dassault Aviation to the French Air Force beginning in 2013.

Feb 4/11: Bulgaria RFI. Bulgaria issues another fighter replacement RFI, soliciting information from Boeing (F/A-18E/F), Dassault (Rafale, Mirage 2000), EADS (Eurofighter), Lockheed Martin (F-16), and Saab (JAS-39 Gripen) re: 8 new and/or second-hand fighter jets, to replace its existing fleet of 12 MiG-21s.

Bulgaria issued a similar RFI in 2006, for 20 jets, but the global economic crash, and Bulgaria’s own issues in trying to pay for past defense purchases, forced a hold. The Defense Ministry has taken pains to emphasize that this is just an exploratory request, and is not the start of a purchase tender. Nevertheless, November 2010 saw the formation of a National Steering Committee and an Integrated Project Team, to draft preliminary fighter replacement operational, technical, and tactical requirements. That followed October 2010 remarks by Bulgaria’s Defense Minister Anyu Angelov, who discussed spending BGN 1 billion (around $725 million) for the purchase of an uncertain number of new fighter jets to replace its MiG-21s, while modernizing its fleet of 16 MiG-29A air superiority jets. Sofia News Agency.

Jan 6/11: UAE. French media report that during a vsit to Paris in mid-December 2010, UAE armed forces commander Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan asked France to renew its proposal to sell up to 60 Rafales to the UAE.

The recent purchase of 200 Meteor missiles by the French government reportedly removed one of the UAE’s concerns. Other equipment like the Damocles targeting pod has been integrated late, due to budget constraints, but the French purchase ensures that this won’t happen to the long-range Meteor missile as well. A partial squadron of Rafale F3s equipped with Reco NG and Damocles pods is reportedly operating from a new French base in Abu Dhabi, in support of deployments to Afghanistan as well as the UAE sale. That still leaves issues of AESA radar capabilities, improvements to the Snecma M88 engines, disposal of the UAE’s 60+ plane Mirage 200 fleet, and possibly airline landing rights near Paris as items of contention.

On the other hand, both Qatar and Kuwait have early-stages programs going to select new fighters for their air forces, and the UAE is a very respected and influential weapons buyer in the region. A sale to the UAE would make a huge difference to Dassault, and the UAE would reap royalties if Rafales with its requested extra features are bought by other countries. Aviation Week | Reuters | UAE’s The National.

Dec 16/10: UAE. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan and French President Nicolas Sarkozy reportedly discussed the potential Rafale deal in Paris during the Prince’s visit. Negotiations aren’t formally on again yet, but this is a form of progress. TopNews Arab Emirates | Reuters.

Nov 15/10: UAE. France’s La Tribune reveals [in French] why the UAE broke off negotiations, and the new condition they’ve added for the sale:

“Après avoir gelé les négociations pourtant très avancées au coeur de l’été en raison d’un article dans “Le Figaro”, propriété de Dassault, qui a fortement déplu, Abu Dhabi a récemment rajouté dans les discussions une nouvelle exigence pour acquérir le Rafale. Selon plusieurs sources concordantes, les Emiratis mettent désormais dans la balance des droits de trafic supplémentaires (autorisations de vols) en France, essentiellement à Roissy, pour leurs compagnies aériennes Emirates (Dubai) et surtout Etihad, le transporteur d’Abu Dhabi.”

Translation: The UAE suspended Rafale negotiations because of an article in Le Figaro, which Dassault’s ownership structure also owns. Must have been quite some article.

The new condition will be familiar to Canadians – the UAE wants to double the number of reserved slots for Emirates Airlines and Etihad Airways at Roissy airport, France main passenger hub near Paris. France had rejected this request when it was made recently, as its national airline Air France objected. In Canada’s case, the request was to double slots at Pearson airport in Toronto, the country’s busiest and largest passenger hub. Air Canada objected, Canada refused, and in October 2010, the UAE kicked Canada out of its “Camp Mirage” base, and denied overflight rights for Canada’s defense minister on his way to Afghanistan.

Nov 8/10: Qatar. Aviation Week reports that Qatar plans to pick its new fighter in 2012, and the Rafale is a contender to replace the current Mirage 2000v5 fleet:

“The size of the program is still under discussion, with 24-36 fighters likely to be acquired… The service is evaluating a broad spectrum of aircraft, including the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and F-15, Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale, says Al-Khayarin. Saab officials note they also have entered the competition [with their JAS-39NG].”

Oct 4/10: UAE suspended. French media confirm that negotiations with the UAE for up to 60 Rafale fighters have been suspended. Issues reportedly included the range of enhancements requested, and associated terms if they’re sold in future aircraft; and requests that Dassault exchange the UAE’s 63 Mirage 2000s as part of a deal. Usine Nouvelle initial article and follow-up [in French].

Sept 13/10: UAE. Defense News reports that The UAE has requested technical information on the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. An unnamed source cites no need to develop the platform further, which would avoid a $2+ billion effort to upgrade the Rafale with a longer-range AESA radar, better electronic warfare systems, and uprated engines. On the other hand, the UAE has seen returns on such developments before, via royalties when the Mirage 2000v5s it helped to develop were sold abroad.

Defense News says that it’s “not immediately clear why the UAE is exploring a U.S.-made option.” It could be technology. It could be politics. Or, it could just be smart negotiating tactics.

Aug 7/10: India. India’s Times Now news show reports that the M-MRCA trials will leave only Dassault’s Rafale and EADS’ Eurofighter in the race. There is no official confirmation. Brahmand | Livefist.

June 22/10: Joint French Training. The 3rd COMORAC (COMite d’ORientation de l’Aviation de Chasse) meets, as the French Air Force and Navy discuss joint management of Rafale training. They sign an agreement establishing an ETR (Escadron de Transformation Rafale), which would serve both branches from the St. Dizier air base, beginning in September 2010. Rafale-M and Rafale-B pilots will now have a common initial processing and training, and initial personnel assignments are beginning.

Part of the co-ordination effort also involves work at the Istres-Le Tubé air base near Nice. It would take over land-based carrier landing simulations from the nearby Naval Air Station Nimes Garons, which also serves as a civilian airport. These initial improvements will be made during the summer 2010, with the goal of having the French carrier’s air wing embark at Istres beginning in September 2010. French Navy [in French].

March 22/10: M88 upgrade. The first test flight of a Rafale fighter powered by the Snecma M88-4E “TCO Pack” engine takes place for 1:30 at the Istres air base in southern France. In January 2008, French defense procurement agency DGA awarded Snecma the “TCO Pack” contract to improve the M88-2 engine, modifying the high-pressure compressor and turbine and extending service life and time between inspections.

The first ground test of the engine was performed in September 2009. Development engines are now undergoing ground performance and endurance tests, and a series of altitude chamber tests was completed in late February 2010. The engine has been on 10 test flights, and the test program comprises some 70 flights in 2010, with different engine configurations. Qualification and delivery of the first production-standard M88-4E is now slated for the end of 2011. Snecma release.

April 29/10: UAE. Arabian Aerospace magazine repeats long-standing rumors that Dassault/ France will be asked to buy back, or find a buyer for, the UAE’s 62 Mirage 2000v9 aircraft, as a condition of a Rafale sale. The article goes on to detail the Mirage 2000v9’s capabilities and key equipment differences from earlier models; many revolve around the incorporation of technology that was also used on the Rafale.

April 5/10: Active stealth? Aviation Week’s Air and Cosmos reports that France is developing active stealth for the Rafale F5 (2 versions hence). Bill Sweetman explains:

“Active cancellation means preventing a radar from detecting a target by firing back a deception signal with the same frequency as the reflection, but precisely one-half wavelength out of phase with it. Result: the returned energy reaching the radar has no frequency and can’t be detected. It’s quite as difficult as it sounds… This may not be the first French attempt to implement AC on the Rafale. At the Paris air show in 1997, I interviewed a senior engineer at what was then Dassault Electronique… [DID: which became Thales, then Dassault became Thales’ largest private shareholder]”

Sweetman goes on to explain that Moore’s Law of improved processing power may make the project more achievable now. MBDA and Thales have since confirmed that they are working on active cancellation for missiles as part of the Rafale’s SPECTRA defensive suite, and research in this area is underway in several other countries.

April 1/10: SPECTRA. Aviation Week runs a picture taken by the new imaging infrared missile warning system being developed for the Rafale’s DDM NG warning system against incoming infrared missiles – part of the wider SPECTRA system. DDM NG lacks the level of coverage found in the F-35’s DAS, but the picture’s breadth and clarity are an impressive illustration of how far IIR has come. The DDM-NG system is slated for fielding on new Rafale F3s.

March 21/10: Kuwait. The 4-member Islamist “Reform and Development Bloc” in Kuwait’s 50-member Parliament issued a statement against Kuwait’s proposed Rafale purchase, reiterating “…its firm rejection of this suspicious deal, especially following information that the latest technical reports have recommended the rejection of the deal.” The Bloc also cites the Rafale’s failure to win other export orders to date, as a reason to avoid the aircraft. Defense Minister Sheikh Jaber Mubarak al-Sabah, on the other hand, continues to maintain that the Rafale deal remains a priority.

The word “suspicious” is code for “involves payoffs,” in a monarchy that has dissolved Parliament 3 times from 2005-2009, in order to avoid scrutiny of the royal family. In November 2009, some opposition MPs claimed the proposed 14-28 plane contract was over-inflated. In response, Kuwait’s parliament voted unanimously to ask Kuwait’s Audit Bureau to probe 3 planned arms deals with the United States and France for C-130J Super Hercules transports, an ammunition plant, and the Rafale.

The bloc’s claims regarding the technical reports are difficult to verify – a technical defense ministry team has been assessing the deal, following Sheikh Jaber Mubarak al-Sabah’s approval, but its findings have not been made public. Al Defaiyah | Kuwaiti Times | Zawaya | Defense News | France 24 | UPI.

Feb 20/10: Kuwait. Middle East Newsline reports that France and Kuwait have resumed high-level defense talks to finalize an estimated $3 billion order for up to 28 Rafales.

Feb 2/10: Rafale Care. Thales Group announces a 10-year, fixed price sub-contract with Dassault Aviation, to provide a range of extended services and maintenance support for avionics equipment on Rafale combat aircraft in service with the French armed forces. These services will include “obsolescence management,” which is always a hazard given the short production cycle of many electronic components, and involves guaranteed availability rates.

The avionics support agreement with Thales flows from the SIMMAD contract noted in the Dec 12/08 entry, whose initial 5-year base period is followed by 5 further options of 1 year each.

Jan 22/10: ACMI. Dassault Aviation announces that it has configured the Rafale fighter to carry MBDA’s Semac Air Combat Maneuvering Instrumentation pod on its wingtip, enabling it to participate in the USAF’s multinational Red Flag exercise. In early 2008, the Dassault Aviation design department in Saint-Cloud had been asked to assess the impact of the new pod in early 2008, ensuring that it didn’t create aerodynamic problems, or interfere with other aircraft electronics. By the end of July 2009, Dassault had submitted this file to the authorities, and received flight authorization. In early August, 4 Rafale fighters participated in the Red Flag 2008-04 exercise.

ACMI pods relay and store position and performance information during exercises, and can also simulate the firing of missiles and calculate hit probability. The combined transmissions of participating fighters creates a complete command picture for those running the exercises, who can also replay engagements to the fighter pilots later on.

Nov 26/09: French Defense Minister Hervé Morin is quoted regarding the September 2009 crash of 2 Rafales. Both recorders have been recovered and sent to France’s Bureau of Accidents Enquiring and Analysis (BEAD) for investigation. Morin says the report is complete, adding that: “It’s evident… It’s very probable, very certain to be a human error.” China’s Xinhua.

Nov 15/09: At the Dubai 2009 air show, Thales representatives discuss the expected French contract for 60 more planes, and export opportunities. Flight International:

“[The inclusion of RBE2-AA AESA radars] is paving the way in terms of technology for the export process,” says [Thales aerospace senior vice-president Pierre-Eric Pommellet]. “Negotiations with the UAE on Rafale are ongoing,” he says. “I’m sure that this will be a very important topic at Dubai. This is the biggest project that we are involved in in this region.” Kuwait is also emerging as a strong prospect. “There have been some state-to-state talks, including on the Rafale. Kuwait could be a good customer for us, but it’s their decision on whether to progress,” he says.”

Nov 12/09: 60 approved. Defense minister Hervé Morin and France’s Comité ministériel des investissements de défense (CMI) approve a multi-year, 60-plane order of Rafale fighters for the French air force and navy, per France’s multi-year defense budgeting plans. These aircraft would be equipped with new RBE2-AA AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radars and improved self-protection systems, in addition to the standard Rafale F3 fit-out.

Order estimates hover around EUR 6-7 billion, but exact costs, delivery date, and order composition will now be negotiated by France’s DGA procurement agency. The multi-year commitment is designed to provide both assurance to the supply chain, and confidence on the part of potential export customers. The DGA itself acknowledges that the presence or absence of those exports will affect overall schedules and delivery dates. Key firms involved will include Dassault Aviation, Thales, Safran, and MBDA, among about 100 firms in the overall supply chain. French DGA [in French] | Avio News | Flight International | StrategyPage.

Oct 23/09: Kuwait. As Kuwait and France sign an umbrella defense agreement to enhance bilateral cooperation, reports surface that Kuwait is investigating Dassault’s Rafale as a possible successor to its fleet of F/A-18C/D Hornets. UPI:

“Obviously,” said [Kuwaiti Defense Minister Sheik Jaber al-Hamad] after meeting with his French counterpart Hervé Morin, “we would be proud to have the Rafale in the heart of the armed forces in Kuwait.” Jaber, also deputy prime minister of the emirate, told reporters he was awaiting terms of the deal from Paris.”

Oct 19/09: Libya. Libya’s potential Rafale purchase could be in danger. Russia’s Interfax media agency reports that Libya plans to buy 12-15 Sukhoi Su-35 multirole fighters, another 4 Su-30s as an immediate interim order, and 6 Yakovlev Yak-130 trainer and light attack aircraft aircraft. Reports indicate that a contract could be signed with state arms export agency Rosoboronexport by the end of 2009, or early 2010.

The UPI report adds that Libya is also interested in the long-range, high-altitude S-300 air-defense system, the shorter-range Tor-M2E and BUK-M1 surface-to-air missile systems, combat helicopters, T-90 tanks, and at least one diesel-powered submarine.

Libya has also been in talks with France to buy its Rafale fighters since late 2007. Any signed Sukhoi deal is likely to end the Rafale’s near-term chances in Libya. Libya would later help the Rafale gain international credibility – but through use in theater, rather than a sale.

Sept 7/09: Brazilan Rafales? Brazil’s Ministerio Da Defesa announces that Dassault Aviation is now the F-X2 competition’s preferred bidder, and the country will order 36 Rafales subject to further negotiations. Subsequent events lead to partial backtracking from the government, as the competition is still not over, and the Brazilian Air Force hasn’t delivered its recommendations yet. The Rafale has definitely achieved front-runner status, however.

This sale would be France’s 1st export order for its Rafale fighter, after numerous attempts spanning more than a decade. French technology transfer across a broad range of projects was reportedly the critical factor in the deal, and Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim reportedly said that the decision to begin talks with Dassault “was not adopted in relation to the other two” competing companies. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva described the move as “definitively consolidating a strategic partnership we started in 2005” – one that would now produce helicopters (EC725), submarines (nuclear-powered and diesel-electric), transport aircraft (KC-390) and possibly fighters (Rafale). Read “Brazil Embarking Upon F-X2 Fighter Program” for more details, and full updates.

June 5/09: UAE. Rumors surface that the UAE, who chose to develop the F-16E/F Block 60 Desert Falcon instead of buying the Rafale, may be willing to replace its Mirage 2000v9 fleet with Rafale aircraft in a $10 billion deal.

If they do, however, they reportedly want some changes to the platform, including engine thrust growth from 16,500 pounds each to 20,000 pounds, an AESA radar, and integration with MBDA’s Meteor long-range missile. Funding from the UAE could help France finance Rafale upgrades, as their key requests are all already planned or in development. where negotiations become interesting is the quid pro quo. A follow-on article in UAE’s The National discusses past licensing-for-exports deals associated with funded modifications to their Mirage 2000 and F-16 platforms. Those deals made the UAE several hundred million dollars when the Mirage 2000v5 modification it helped finance were sold to other countries. Al Defaiya | UPI | UAE’s The National.

Feb 10/09: Oman. France enters the fray with an offer to sell Oman Dassault’s Rafale fighter, instead of the 24 Eurofighters reportedly on offer from Oman’s historic ally Britain. The offer was reportedly made by visiting French President Nicolas Sarkozy during a meeting and dinner on Tuesday with Sultan Qaboos bin Said. Report.

Additional Readings

Readers with corrections, comments, or information to contribute are encouraged to contact DID’s Founding Editor, Joe Katzman. We understand the industry – you will only be publicly recognized if you tell us that it’s OK to do so.

Background: Rafale & Ancillaries

• Dassault Aviation – Rafale

• Dassault Aviation – Rafale for India. Promotional site.

• Air Force Technology – Rafale Multirole Combat Fighter, France

• Air Vectors – The Dassault Rafale

• L’Usine Nouvelle, via WayBack – Infographie : le Rafale en 19 chiffres et 11 usines. Program infographic includes costs, main industrial sites, material composition percentages, etc.

• Sagem, via WayBack – GERFAUT/ Aircraft Modernization. Gerfaut is/was a Helmet Mounted Display for the Rafale.

• Dassault Aviation, via WayBack – Rafale F3 and AREOS Reco NG: the 21st century reconnaissance team.

News & Views

• Defense Aerospace (May 31/11) – Rafale in Combat: “War for Dummies”. Discusses experiences over Libya. Predictably rosy views, but seems to confirm Damocles pod integration aty last, and notes the effect it’s having in breaking down previous narrow functional foci among squadrons.

• Flight International, via WayBack (Sept 11/09) – FLIGHT TEST: Dassault Rafale – Rampant Rafale. Flight test of an F3 model.

• DID (Nov 3/08) – French President Tries to Set French Defense on a New Course. Details France’s current multi-year defense budget and force plans.

• DID (Feb 14/08) – French Adding GPS to Paveway-II Bombs. In part, to give Rafales their own smart bomb option before French ASSM weapons arrive.

• Dassault, via WayBack (May 2007) – Rafale over Afghanistan. These F2 models lack their own laser targeting, and require Mirage 2000D escorts.

• Aviation Now, via WayBack (Le Bourget 2001) – French Industry Plans Upgraded Rafale for Export Markets.