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2012-02: Poland Requests F-16 Weapons, Support

PoAF F-16
Polish F-16C,
air display

F-16C/D Block 52 aircraft serve as the backbone of Poland’s air force. In February 2012, the USA’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced [PDF] Poland’s official request for F-16 weapons, as well as a 5 year fleet support contract that includes associated equipment, parts, and training. They will be bought using the USA’s Foreign Military Sales process, and the cost of the requested equipment could be up to $447 million.

If a contract is negotiated after the 15-day FMS wait period for NATO members, the prime contractors are listed as Raytheon in Tucson, AZ and Waltham, MA; Boeing in St. Charles, MO; McAlester Army Ammunition Plant in McAlester, OK; and United Technologies Corporation in Hartford, CT. The specific request includes…

Korea’s F-X Multi-Role Fighter Buys: Phases 2 & 3

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RFP out; Requirements changes both favor and disfavor F-35; competitive analysis. (Feb 7/12)

F-15K Past, Now, Future
F-15K Poster: apropos?

The ROKAF (Republic of Korea Air Force) originally planned to buy 120 advanced, high-end fighters as its next-generation platform, in order to replace its existing fleet of F-4 Phantom IIs and other aircraft. So far, it has bought 60 fighters in 2 phases. Back in 2002, the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) selected the F-15K advanced derivative of the F-15E Strike Eagle for its Next Generation Fighter Program, and bought 40. In 2008, a 2nd contract was signed for 20 more F-15ks, with slight modifications.

Now the 3rd phase looms, and the question is whether it will be a variant of their existing fleet, or something new. While the DAPA procurement agency dreamed of developing their own “5th generation” aircraft for Phase 3, reality eventually had its say. Now, foreign manufacturers are offering the ROKAF a number of options…

Oman Looks to Replace Its Jaguar Jets

RFP to BAE/ Eurofghter. (Jan 23/12)
Omani F-16Cs
RAFO F-16Cs w. CFTs

Oman is location on the eastern Arabian peninsula next to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and across from Persia. It remains a very strategic country, controlling the Strait of Hormuz’s western bank, and providing an overwatch position for both the entrance to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean near Africa. The Royal Air Force of Oman (al-Quwwat al-Jawwiya al-Sultanat Oman) currently flies 12 F-16 Block 50 fighters: 8 F-16Cs and 4 F-16Ds, whose delivery began in 2005. They complement the RAFO’s 18 Jaguar strike aircraft, and 11 single-seat subsonic Hawk 203 light fighters. Sultan Qaboos’ air force is looking to replace its aging Jaguars, and has made inquiries about buying 4+ generation fighters like Eurofighters or even JAS-39 Gripens for this purpose.

A formal DSCA request for 18 more F-16s raised the possibility of a different approach, and that has now become a firm contract. But BAE just received an RFP for its Eurofighter…

Rapid Fire 2012-02-08: Uncertainty is Certain

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  • Todd Harrison at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) reviews options [PDF] for DOD to handle sequestration. “If this downturn in defense spending is like previous downturns, the FY 2013 budget projection the administration is about to release may prove to be highly optimistic.”
  • The US Senate Armed Service Committee’s (SASC) most important hearing this month will take place on Feb. 14 to get started with the FY13 budget and get briefed on the latest FYPD 5-year plans. The March schedule is set to receive testimony by department between March 1st and March 20.
  • US Senators representing Alaska Mark Begich [D, SASC member] and Lisa Murkowski [R-] introduced legislation (S. 2073) seeking to prohibit the Air Force from moving an F-16 squadron from Eielson AFB to Elmendorf and wrote to Secretary of Defense Panetta.
  • There’s often talk of friction between DOTE (DOD’s Operational Test and Evaluation) and the acquisition community. Case in point of people apparently talking past each other: how can you really assess a whole ship or submarine’s sustainment metrics before launching the lead ship at sea? DOTE wants more data upfront during the IOT&E initial phase while this acquisition officer argues they should settle for modeling and analysis until FOT&E follow-ups.
  • Navistar Defense, Indigen Armor and SAIC are teaming up to bid on the Ground Mobility Vehicle 1.1 (GMV 1.1) program.
  • John J. “Jack” Evans [PDF] has been assigned as deputy director, naval warfare (NW) within DOD Acquisition. He was previously PEO submarines at the Naval Sea Systems Command. Darlene J. Costello, Principal Director Strategic and Tactical Systems (S&TS) was also wearing the NW hat until now.
  • Robert S. “Steve” Miller is Hawker Beechcraft’s new CEO. Very recently the president of their defense division retired.
  • The Canadian Foreign Policy Journal published a special issue [paid content] on the F-35 with headlines that include: “costly mistake”, “Strategically superfluous, unacceptably overpriced.” Please do tell how you really feel.

Rapid Fire 2012-02-07: Kendall Wants Data

  • Recently-confirmed US defense acquisition Under Secretary Frank Kendall (pending Senate approval) discussed with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) the implications of DOD’s strategic guidance and what’s coming for FY13. He confirmed he is aiming for continuity from his predecessor and former boss Ashton Carter’s Better Buying Power, and spoke with candor about contracting schemes such as concurrency or fixed-price awards going in and out of fashion at the Pentagon with equal fervor. But it doesn’t seem to matter much whether low-rate initial production is done on a cost-plus or fixed-price basis. In the end, what does really work? On the sign out of Kendall’s door: “In God we trust; all others must bring data.” Audio | PDF transcript.
  • Some acquisition requests are more urgent than others. Dealing with pressing operational requirements is what the Joint Rapid Acquisition Cell (JRAC) does within DOD, as well as some offices within the services such as the Army’s PEO-C3T.
  • While Frank Kendall was calling F-35 concurrency “acquisition malpractice”, Carl Levin [D-MI] and John MCain [R-AZ] – respectively Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) – sent a letter [PDF] to the Secretary of Defense questioning his decision to take the F-35B off probation. Along with 13 other questions, they want to know whether there are dissenting voices within DOD that might have been ignored to reach that decision. From a much more tactical perspective, the F-35s grounded because of defective parachutes are flying again [PDF] now that the issue has been sorted out.
  • The Office of the US Secretary of Defense Comparative Testing Office (CTO) has made a Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) to declare its intention to fund a number of innovative technologies in the tactical realm, from aircrew protection to non-lethal weapons to munition improvements and more. FBO | CTO templates.
  • Airlift provider Global Aviation Holdings Inc. is filing for Chapter 11. Press release | WSJ.
  • The U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command is running a survey to get feedback from soldiers about the Improved Physical Fitness Uniform (IPFU), while the Army Medical Research and Materiel Command is to evaluate bioelectric bandages. This looks less painful than it sounds.

Rapid Fire 2012-02-02: USAF Aircraft Redundancy Plans

  • US Secretary of the Air Force Michael Donley and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz released a short whitepaper [PDF] outlining its priorities and choices within forthcoming budget constraints. It states: “More than 280 aircraft have been identified [...] for elimination [...] over the next five years. This includes 123 fighters (102 A-10s and 21 older F-16s), 133 mobility aircraft (27 C-5As, 65 C-130s, 20 KC-135s, and 21 C-27s), and 30 select ISR systems (18 RQ-4 Block 30s, 11 RC-26s, and one E-8 damaged beyond repair)”
  • The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission had hearings last week on what China’s quest for global resources – water, fossil fuel, mineral, fish – means for the United States. Transcripts | Video.
  • Andrew Davies from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) thinks it is unlikely that the Australian Defence Force (ADF) will make a big rebasing effort to the country’s north. ASPI also released an economic and strategic analysis [PDF] pondering whether Australia should build warships.
  • The Canadian Forces updated their casualty statistics covering their presence in Afghanistan from April 2002 to December 31, 2011.
  • The US House Committee on Foreign Affairs will have its second hearing on “Export Controls, Arms Sales, and Reform: Balancing U.S. Interests” next Tuesday, Feb. 7, 10am. Marion Blakey, President & CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) and Mikel Williams, CEO if DDi, will testify. The ADS trade association in the UK is concerned about the potential impact of ITAR changes on its members.

India’s M-MRCA Fighter Competition: Rafale Contract in the Works

India Roster Jaguar Mirage-2000 SU-30 Mig-27 MiG-21bis
IAF: Jaguar, Mirage 2000
SU-30K, MiG-27, MiG-21BiS

Rafale is the “L-1” preferred bidder. (Jan 31/12)

“It’s the biggest fighter aircraft deal since the early 1990s,” said Boeing’s Mark Kronenberg, who runs the company’s Asia/Pacific business. India’s planned multi-billion dollar, 126+ plane jet fighter buy became a contest between Dassault, Saab, MiG, American competitors and EADS’ Eurofighter.

What began as a lightweight fighter competition to replace India’s shrinking MiG-21 interceptor fleet appears to have bifurcated into 2 categories now, and 2 expense tiers. What’s going on? In a word, lots. The participants changed, India’s view of its own needs is changing, and the nature of the order may be changing as well. With the long-delayed release of the official $10 billion RFP, the competition began at last – and like all Indian decisions, it takes a very long time. DID offers an in-depth look at the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) competition’s changes, the RFP, and the competitors; and also offers an updated timeline regarding competitive moves since this article was first published in March 2006:

Rapid Fire 2012-02-01: No, This Doesn’t Make Your Backlog Look Fat

  • Dassault Aviation released the most terse and self-restrained press release ever in the wake of the Rafale’s final selection for India’s MMRCA. The French business press and stock market were less subdued, but it is not a signed contract just yet. More details to come.
  • Northrop Grumman reported sales of $26.4B in 2011, a $1.7B or 6% drop from 2010. Its aerospace, electronic and information systems all shrunk by a few percentage points while revenue from the smaller Technical Services dropped by 16%. Among other programs, lower-than-anticipated F-35 deliveries weighted on the aerospace division. The company has revisited the criteria it uses to state its total backlog. This change contributes $3B out of a $7.3B backlog decrease from the previous year, and brings the total down by 15.6% to $39.5B with a 59% funding ratio. NG excludes unexercised contract options and unfunded Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) orders from its backlog numbers.
  • L-3 Communications’ sales for 2011 decreased by $511M (3%) to $15.2B. Growth in the C3ISR segment was not enough to compensate for lower sales elsewhere in the conglomerate. The funded backlog lost $396M (3.6%) to $10.7B.
  • The US DoD announced [PDF] $18M in funds to 6 recipients for operational energy capability improvement.
  • Catherine Ashton, head of the European Defence Agency (EDA), urged EU members to pool and share defense resources more aggressively but such calls have not been heeded much so far. Alignment of the British, French and Germans in the same project has proven elusive.
  • The British MoD published its latest procurement and technology whitepaper [PDF], stating the intent to maintain science and technology spending at 1.2% or more of the defense budget. The report does mention in passing the EDA as well as NATO’s “Smart Defence” initiative, but its framework for cooperation with other countries will “generally favour bilateral collaboration on technology, equipment, and support issues, as we believe this offers the best balance of advantages and disadvantages. We will, however, continue to work multilaterally, for example through NATO or the EU, where this offers a clear benefit to the UK.” Coming later this year, a 10-year equipment plan.
  • Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michelle Flournoy spoke at the Reserve Officers Association Symposium in the 1st video below. She toed the now familiar line from Panetta’s DoD. Flournoy will leave DOD at the end of the week.
  • In the 2nd video below, CSBA’s Todd Harrison on the impact of projected FY13 cuts on the US Navy’s equipment and personnel:
    Continue Reading… »

The JAS-39 Gripen: Sweden’s 4+ Generation Wild Card

JAS-39D SAAF plane
South African JAS-39D
c. Gripen International
DII

Czech turmoil; Swiss politics; South Korea offer?; Hungary extends lease; Sweden looking at major upgrades; Article updates; India closed? (Jan 31/12)

As a neutral country with a long history of providing for its own defense against all comers, Sweden also has a long tradition of building excellent high-performance fighters with a distinctive look. From the long-serving Saab-35 Draken (“Dragon,” 1955-2005) to the Mach 2, canard-winged Saab-37 Viggen (“Thunderbolt,” 1971-2005), Swedish fighters have stressed short-field launch from dispersed/improvised air fields, world-class performance, and leading-edge design. This record of consistent project success is nothing short of amazing, especially for a country whose population over this period has ranged from 7-9 million people.

This is DID’s FOCUS Article for background, news, and contract awards related to the JAS-39 Gripen (“Griffon”), a canard-winged successor to the Viggen and one of the world’s first 4+ generation fighters. Gripen remains the only lightweight 4+ generation fighter type in service, its performance and operational economics are both world-class, and it has become one of the most recognized fighter aircraft on the planet. Unfortunately for its builders, that recognition has come from its appearance in Saab and Volvo TV commercials, rather than from hoped-for levels of military export success. With its 4+ generation competitors clustered in the $60-120+ million range vs. the Gripen’s claimed $40-60 million, is there a light at the end of the tunnel for Sweden’s lightweight fighter?

Rapid Fire 2012-01-31: BRAC Big Refusal Action Committee

  • Some F-35s were grounded last week for a few days until replacement ejection seats are received. Parachutes were improperly packed, said [PDF] the F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO).
  • The F-35 is what the Air Force plans to use for close-air support in place of A-10 squadrons lined up for closure. Between this and cancellation of the C-27J, the Army is sure to be delighted. This is likely to be contentious in Congress, though opposition to another BRAC will be much stronger. But are talks of another round of base closures just a clever sideshow?
  • To what extent an army should have its own aviation is an old question revisited by the Center for Land Warfare Studies in India.
  • If you look at defense spending relative to GDP, per capita, or as a percentage of total government spending, then the US remains way ahead of the European Union, as shown in data gathered [PDF] by the European Defence Agency.
  • Section 231.205-18 of US defense acquisition regulations (DFARS) was amended to require major contractors to report independent research and development (IR&D) projects to the Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC). The rule is effective as of Jan. 30, 2012 and applies to “those contractors whose covered segments allocated a total of more than $11,000,000 in IR&D/Bid and Proposal (B&P) costs to covered contracts during the preceding fiscal year.” Here is the DTIC website where contractors are asked to upload their data.
  • MV22s scheduled to be deployed at the U.S. base in Okinawa, Japan, will run test flights to address local residents’ concerns about noise levels.
  • A student at the US Naval Postgraduate School is assessing the data-gathering potential of solar-powered, wave-propelled unmanned surface vehicles that might provide a cheap, mobile alternative to moored buoys for maritime surveillance.