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Rapid Fire 2012-01-27: FY13 DoD Budget Guidance

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Top Pentagon officials gave a briefing yesterday on major budget decisions ahead of the FY13 President Budget request coming on Feb. 13. Highlights among the outlined priorities [PDF]:

  • A relatively stable topline at $613.4B, made of a $525B baseline plus $88.4B overseas contingency operations (OCO). The former is a couple billion dollars below the FY10 actual budget and reflects a 5% decrease from the FY12 request, but in reality is just $6B below what DoD ended up getting last year. The OCO funds are 25% lower than last year’s $117.8B request but they remain at a pretty sizable level now that troops have left Iraq. Again, a significant part of the cuts Panetta and House Republicans have most vocally objected to are actually found in a) reductions vs. baseline growth previously projected by DoD – as opposed to net cuts – and b) a drop in war funding which arguably makes sense when you’re withdrawing troops from combat.
  • Force and infrastructure adjustments, starting with a new base realignment and closure (BRAC) process. The last one dates from 2005 and wrapped up only very recently. Well, almost. Also, the start of a 5-year process that aims to lower active troops to 490,000 for the Army and 182,000 for the Marines; and a 10% reduction in the number of Air Force tactical air squadrons from today’s 60. A new BRAC is sure to open a whole new can of worms in Congress.
  • Slowing down JSF procurement – again – to allow for more testing and address the laundry list of issues outlined in the latest DOT&E report [PDF]. This decision reflects the conclusions of the Concurrency Quick Look Review [PDF] that talked of a “lack of confidence in the design stability” and of the “concurrency driven consequences of the required fixes.”
  • Retirement or divesting of 27 C-5As, 65 C-130s and 38 C-27s. Cancellation of Global Hawk Block 30 (not the whole program). Early retirement of 7 cruisers; delayed or reduced production of 14 ships, spread between LHA, LCS, JHSV, Virginia-class sub. Termination of the Defense Weather Satellite System (DWSS). Reduction in JAGM funding. Focus on JLTV rather than HMMWV Recap.
  • Adjustments to pay raises shouldn’t start until 2015. Health care fees, co-pays and deductibles for retirees on the other hand will start to rise earlier. Beyond that, DoD is asking Congress to establish a commission to review military retirement. What could go wrong with that?

DID will obviously follow budget developments closely as they unfold and further details are made available. For reference, the FY12 DoD budget documents are found here. In other news:

The US Navy’s Mobile Landing Platform Ships (MLP)

MLP concept
MLP concept
(click to view full)

Converteam picked for propulsion & power system; Ships named; Keel laid; Article updated. (Jan 19/12)

The Montford Point Class Mobile Landing Platform is intended to be a new class and type of auxiliary support ship, as part of the US Navy’s Maritime Prepositioning Force of the Future (MPF-F) program. They’re intended to serve as a transfer station or floating pier at sea, improving the U.S. military’s ability to deliver equipment and cargo from ship to shore when friendly bases are denied, or simply don’t exist. That’s very useful in disaster situations, and equally useful for supporting US Marines once they’re ashore.

It’s an interesting and unusual concept, one closely connected to the au courant concept of “seabasing”. The final MLP design changed substantially from the initial requirements, which lowered the platform’s cost along with its capabilities. Time will tell if the initial choices and tradeoffs were well-conceived or not. With contracts to build the ships underway, the remaining question is whether the ships can be built to meet the more limited promises that are being made now…

AMRAAM: Deploying & Developing America’s Medium-Range Air-Air Missile

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AIM-120C AMRAAM Launch from F-22
AIM-120C from F-22A
(click for test missile zoom)
DII

SLAMRAAM updates; AIM-120D contract; AIM-120D testing & status; 2013 budget may be good news for AIM-120D. (Jan 26/12)

Raytheon’s AIM-120 Advanced, Medium-Range Air to Air Missile (AMRAAM) has become the world market leader for medium range air-to-air missiles, and is also beginning to make inroads within land-based defense systems. It was designed with the lessons of Vietnam in mind, and of local air combat exercises like ACEVAL and Red Flag. This DID FOCUS article covers successive generations of AMRAAM missiles, international contracts and key events from 2006 onward, and even some of its emerging competitors.

One of the key lessons learned from Vietnam was that a fighter would be likely to encounter multiple enemies, and would need to launch and guide several missiles at once in order to ensure its survival. This had not been possible with the AIM-7 Sparrow, a “semi-active radar homing” missile that required a constant radar lock on one target. To make matters worse, enemy fighters were capable of launching missiles of their own. Pilots who weren’t free to maneuver after launch would often be forced to “break lock,” or be killed – sometimes even by a short-range missile fired during the last phases of their enemy’s approach. Since fighters that could carry radar-guided missiles like the AIM-7 tended to be larger and more expensive, and the Soviets were known to have far more fighters overall, this was not a good trade…

From Dolphins to Destroyers: The ScanEagle UAV

ScanEagle"
ScanEagle launch
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USMC contract; RQ-21 replacement draws closer. (Jan 25/12)

ScanEagle’s base Insight UAV platform was originally developed by Washington state’s Insitu, Inc. to track dolphins and tuna from fishing boats, in order to ensure that the fish you buy in supermarkets is “dolphin-safe”. It turns out that the same characteristics needed by fishing boats (able to handle the-water environment, low infrastructure launch and recovery, small size, 20-hour long endurance, automated flight patterns) are equally important for naval operations from larger vessels, and for battlefield surveillance. A partnership with Boeing took ScanEagle to market in those fields, and the design has carved out a market-leading position in its niche.

This article covers recent developments with the ScanEagle UAV system, which is quickly evolving into a mainstay with the US Navy and its allies. Incumbency doesn’t last long in the fast-changing world of UAVs, however. The RQ-21 Integrator, also from Insitu, is getting set to push the ScanEagle aside…

Timely Defenders: Keeping Patriots in Shape

Patriot System
Patriot system
(click for explanation)
defense contract award database

Contract & error. (Jan 17/12)

The USA’s MIM-104 Phased Array Tracking Radar Intercept On Target (PATRIOT) anti-air missile system offers an advanced backbone for medium-range air defense, and short-range ballistic missile defense, to America and its allies. This article covers domestic and foreign purchase requests and contracts for Patriot systems. It also compiles information about the engineering service contracts that upgrade these systems, ensure that they continue to work, and integrate them with wider command and defense systems.

The Patriot missile franchise’s future appears assured. At present, 12 nations have chosen it as a key component of their air and missile defense systems: the USA, Germany, Greece, Japan, Israel, Kuwait, The Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan and the UAE. Poland, Qatar, and Turkey have all indicated varying levels of interest, and some existing customers are looking to upgrade their systems.

Rapid Fire 2012-01-26: 2011 Results Start to Come in for Primes

  • Full 2011 financial results: Textron saw growth at Bell, revenue decrease at Textron Systems. At $7.3B, Bell’s backlog has recovered from a reporting error announced by the company last quarter.
  • Meanwhile General Dynamics generated $32.7B of revenue last year. It has potentially almost 3 years worth of revenue in backlog depending on how its indefinite quantity contracts pan out. Aerospace revenue grew but combat, marine and IT systems lost ground, translating into an almost flat topline for the prime contractor.
  • Raytheon wrapped up 2011 with slightly lower revenue ($24.9B) but higher bookings ($25.2B) than the previous year. Its backlog rose by $700M to $35.3B though most of that growth is not appropriated yet.
  • The RAND Arroyo Center is rather bullish on the potential for UAV logistics applications such as convoy overwatch and other surveillance tasks, but reminds decision makers that bandwidth is going to be critical. Note: the study doesn’t cover the use of UAS for Army resupply, separate research that General Dynamics was tasked with.
  • According to the Guardian the British government is considering selling its RAF Norholt to possibly be converted into a satellite of the nearby Heathrow airport. Philip Hammond was Secretary of State for Transport before he replaced Liam Fox last October.
  • The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) notes that defense budgets in Latin America have been growing faster than institutional transparency on policy, let alone on spending.
  • BAE Systems and Caterpillar Inc. have signed a 20-year supply agreement to integrate the Cat CX family of transmissions into its HybriDrive parallel propulsion system, and use it to outfit and retrofit heavy trucks. It’s a civilian deal – but the same technologies can be used on military armored vehicles, and the civilian sector is pioneering this technology.
  • The US Army is concerned about Facebook use. Yes, it can endanger lives, they say. People in the security community need to use it responsibly, and they have some tips.

Super Hornet Fighter Family MYP-III: 2010-2014 Contracts

F-18F Goes Supersonic
Breakthrough…
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DII

Add-on to MYP-III buy; MYP-III tracking. (Jan 25/12)

The US Navy flies the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet fighters, and has begun operating the EA-18G Growler electronic warfare & strike aircraft. Many of these buys have been managed out of common multi-year procurement (MYP) contracts, which aim to reduce overall costs by offering longer-term production commitments, so contractors can negotiate better deals with their suppliers.

The MYP-II contract ran from 2005-2009, and was not renewed because the Pentagon intended to focus on the F-35 fighter program. When it became clear that the F-35 program was going to be late, and had serious program and budgetary issues, pressure built to abandon year-by-year contracting, and negotiate another multi-year deal for the current Super Hornet family. That deal is now final. This entry covers the Super Hornet family’s 2010-2015 purchases, and has been updated to include all announced contracts and events connected with MYP-III, including engines and other separate “government-furnished equipment”....

BAE’s Diverse MRAP Orders

RG-33 Surveillance
RG-33 variant
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DII

Over 350 caiman MTV rolling chassis conversions; Support contracts. (Jan 24/12)

The USA’s Mine-Resistant, Ambush Protected (MRAP) program has been a long road for BAE Systems. In the wake of the US Army’s belated realization that mine protection was critical for vehicles in theater, BAE’s designs, long-standing experience in the field, and production capacity had made them an early favorite. Early results were a deeply humbling experience for the firm, but a combination of acquisitions, persistence, and product development combined to recover 2nd place status by the time MRAP orders ceased.

This in-depth, updated DID feature shines a spotlight on BAE Systems’ family of MRAP offerings, order record, and associated contracts. That includes its RG-33 family, the derivative MRRMV recovery vehicle, and the FMTV-based Caiman family, but not the RG-31s offered in partnership with General Dynamics. The MRAP program appears to have reached its vehicle limit, but upgrades and maintenance contracts are still a significant source of business…

Czech L-159s: Cheap to Good Home

L-159As
Runway Buzz: L-159As
(click to view full)

Iraq is still interested, despite reports of an oil-for planes deal with South Korea. (Jan 24/12)

Czechoslovakia originally ordered 72 of Aero Vodochody’s sub-sonic L-159A single-seat light attack jets. Their preceding L-39/59 Albatros trainer and light attack aircraft family became the world’s most popular jet trainers during the Cold War, and the L-159A Advanced Light Combat Aircraft was positioned as a modern derivative, offering full combat capability and compatibility with western weapons. The resulting aircraft filled a useful niche for the Czechs, but its overall success always depended on exports.

Unfortunately, the Soviet Union’s demise lost the Albatros family its global market niche, and the military aid subsidies that had helped promote it. Worse, the L-159’s program cost grew from CZK 20-30 billion to over 51 billion Koruna. That left the government in a bind. In response, they’ve been trying to keep 24-35 jets for operational use, and sell off 36-47 of the L-159As (one aircraft has been lost), since 2002. They also moved to privatize state-owned Aero Vodochody, which took place in November 2006.

A few 2-seat L-159T conversions have been performed with CzAF funding, as a demonstration of their potential to become dual-role trainer/attack aircraft. That has helped Aero tout the planes to Afghanistan, Bolivia, Colombia, Georgia, Indonesia, Nigeria… and Iraq, which may finally get them a breakthrough.

Rapid Fire 2012-01-25: Kendall for USD ATL

  • Frank Kendall has been confirmed as US undersecretary for defense for acquisition, technology and logistics, pending Senate confirmation. He’s been holding the job in an acting capacity since Ashton Carter was promoted to be Deputy SecDef back in September.
  • Contradictory rumors are floating on a couple specific programs being cut in the FY13 federal budget request. For lack of material to corroborate or invalidate, we’ll just sit this out until the official Pentagon preview expected tomorrow.
  • The House Armed Services Committee released its findings and recommendations [PDF] on the state of DOD’s progress towards auditability: “although the strategy needs more detail and refinement, the DOD has a reasonable strategy and methodology.” Video of yesterday’s related hearing can be found at the bottom of this entry.
  • The U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency completed the destruction of chemical weapons stockpile at Deseret Chemical Depot in Utah, in application of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). Similar work was done to completion at UMCD in Oregon last November.
  • Its molecular structure makes this material resilient, fire-resistant, durable, easy to dye, plus it handles moisture well. All interesting properties for combat clothing. And researchers are making the astounding claim that it may grow on sheep. the Natick Soldier Research, Development, and Engineering Center (NSRDEC) is investigating the tentatively-named WOOL fabric.
  • Divers and medical staff went through 4 days of exercise with the NATO Submarine Rescue System (NSRS), equipment jointly owned by Britain, France and Norway that never had to be used so far.
  • The DGA French procurement agency received [in French] its 2nd EDA-R landing catamaran (L-CAT) to be carried on Mistral LHDs. The 1st one was delivered last November and 2 others are scheduled by mid-2012. Each Mistral ship can carry 2 L-CATs.
  • EADS subsidiary Eurocopter grew its revenue by 12.5% to 5.4 billion euros (about $7B) in 2011 with the delivery of 503 helicopters and 457 net bookings. 32% of its sales came from the military segment.
    Continue Reading… »
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