C-17 Globemaster III

Contract for 10 C-17s; Initial engine contract; Initial maintenance contract; Program cost. (Feb 2/12)

In November 2009, reports surfaced that India was negotiating to buy 10 C-17A Globemaster III heavy transports for its air force. A Defense News article added that:

“The C-17’s advantages include its easier handling (compared with the IL-76) and ability to operate from short and rough airstrips, added the sources…. The Indian military needs to do three things: augment its ability to quickly lift larger numbers of troops as it views possible threats on its border with China; strengthen its presence on the Pakistani border; and fight terrorism and low-intensity warfare, said a senior Defence Ministry official. India needs to triple its lift capacity, said the official.”

New jets with 77.5 tonnes of lift capacity, instead of the IL-76’s 50 tonnes, will help India get there. The government was serious enough to file a formal DSCA request in April 2010, worth up to $5.8 billion. Now, that has taken the next steps, and become the largest-ever foreign sale of C-17s – with the potential to grow further…

• US Secretary of the Air Force Michael Donley and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz released a short whitepaper [PDF] outlining its priorities and choices within forthcoming budget constraints. It states: “More than 280 aircraft have been identified [...] for elimination [...] over the next five years. This includes 123 fighters (102 A-10s and 21 older F-16s), 133 mobility aircraft (27 C-5As, 65 C-130s, 20 KC-135s, and 21 C-27s), and 30 select ISR systems (18 RQ-4 Block 30s, 11 RC-26s, and one E-8 damaged beyond repair)”

• The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission had hearings last week on what China’s quest for global resources – water, fossil fuel, mineral, fish – means for the United States. Transcripts | Video.

• Andrew Davies from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) thinks it is unlikely that the Australian Defence Force (ADF) will make a big rebasing effort to the country’s north. ASPI also released an economic and strategic analysis [PDF] pondering whether Australia should build warships.

• The Canadian Forces updated their casualty statistics covering their presence in Afghanistan from April 2002 to December 31, 2011.

• The US House Committee on Foreign Affairs will have its second hearing on “Export Controls, Arms Sales, and Reform: Balancing U.S. Interests” next Tuesday, Feb. 7, 10am. Marion Blakey, President & CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) and Mikel Williams, CEO if DDi, will testify. The ADS trade association in the UK is concerned about the potential impact of ITAR changes on its members.

• US $1.3B military aid to Egypt is in jeopardy.

• India’s DRDO: We liked the Bollywood movie ‘3 Idiots’ so much, we bought its Netra UAV...

• Skills you didn’t know you needed as an helicopter maintenance engineer: black widow live capture.

IAF: Jaguar, Mirage 2000
SU-30K, MiG-27, MiG-21BiS

Rafale is the “L-1” preferred bidder. (Jan 31/12)

“It’s the biggest fighter aircraft deal since the early 1990s,” said Boeing’s Mark Kronenberg, who runs the company’s Asia/Pacific business. India’s planned multi-billion dollar, 126+ plane jet fighter buy became a contest between Dassault, Saab, MiG, American competitors and EADS’ Eurofighter.

What began as a lightweight fighter competition to replace India’s shrinking MiG-21 interceptor fleet appears to have bifurcated into 2 categories now, and 2 expense tiers. What’s going on? In a word, lots. The participants changed, India’s view of its own needs is changing, and the nature of the order may be changing as well. With the long-delayed release of the official $10 billion RFP, the competition began at last – and like all Indian decisions, it takes a very long time. DID offers an in-depth look at the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) competition’s changes, the RFP, and the competitors; and also offers an updated timeline regarding competitive moves since this article was first published in March 2006:

• India’s MRCA: Changes
• MMRCA: The RFP, Please…
• The Competitors: Analysis [updated]
• MMRCA: Updates and Developments [updated]
• Appendix A – MMRCA: The Naval Angle
• Appendix B – Dassault’s Move: Au Revoir, Mirage
• Appendix C – Additional Readings
  Continue Reading… »

RAAF C-130J-30, flares

$180M in contracts from USA, Norway. (Jan 31/12)

The C-130 Hercules remains one of the longest-running aerospace manufacturing programs of all time. Since 1956, over 40 models and variants have served as the tactical airlift backbone for over 50 nations. The C-130J looks similar, but the number of changes almost make it a new aircraft. Those changes also created issues; the program has been the focus of a great deal of controversy in America – and even of a full program restructuring in 2006. Some early concerns from critics were put to rest when the C-130J demonstrated in-theater performance on the front lines that represented a major improvement over its C-130E/H predecessors. A valid follow-on question might be: does it break the bottleneck limitations that have hobbled a number of multi-billion dollar US Army vehicle development programs?

C-130J customers now include Australia, Britain, Canada, Denmark, India, Israel, Iraq, Italy, Kuwait, Norway, Oman, Qatar, South Korea, Tunisia, and the United States. American C-130J purchases are taking place under both annual budgets and supplemental wartime funding, in order to replace tactical transport and special forces fleets that are flying old aircraft and in dire need of major repairs. This DID FOCUS Article describes the C-130J, examines the bottleneck issue, covers global developments for the C-130J program, and looks at present and emerging competitors…

• The (Private) Labors of Hercules: the C-130J
• The C-130J and the 20-ton Bottleneck
• Turbulent Flight: The C-130J Program
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources, incl. emerging competitors & Special Operations requirements
  Continue Reading… »

Top Pentagon officials gave a briefing yesterday on major budget decisions ahead of the FY13 President Budget request coming on Feb. 13. Highlights among the outlined priorities [PDF]:

• A relatively stable topline at $613.4B, made of a $525B baseline plus $88.4B overseas contingency operations (OCO). The former is a couple billion dollars below the FY10 actual budget and reflects a 5% decrease from the FY12 request, but in reality is just $6B below what DoD ended up getting last year. The OCO funds are 25% lower than last year’s $117.8B request but they remain at a pretty sizable level now that troops have left Iraq. Again, a significant part of the cuts Panetta and House Republicans have most vocally objected to are actually found in a) reductions vs. baseline growth previously projected by DoD – as opposed to net cuts – and b) a drop in war funding which arguably makes sense when you’re withdrawing troops from combat.

• Force and infrastructure adjustments, starting with a new base realignment and closure (BRAC) process. The last one dates from 2005 and wrapped up only very recently. Well, almost. Also, the start of a 5-year process that aims to lower active troops to 490,000 for the Army and 182,000 for the Marines; and a 10% reduction in the number of Air Force tactical air squadrons from today’s 60. A new BRAC is sure to open a whole new can of worms in Congress.

• Slowing down JSF procurement – again – to allow for more testing and address the laundry list of issues outlined in the latest DOT&E report [PDF]. This decision reflects the conclusions of the Concurrency Quick Look Review [PDF] that talked of a “lack of confidence in the design stability” and of the “concurrency driven consequences of the required fixes.”

• Retirement or divesting of 27 C-5As, 65 C-130s and 38 C-27s. Cancellation of Global Hawk Block 30 (not the whole program). Early retirement of 7 cruisers; delayed or reduced production of 14 ships, spread between LHA, LCS, JHSV, Virginia-class sub. Termination of the Defense Weather Satellite System (DWSS). Reduction in JAGM funding. Focus on JLTV rather than HMMWV Recap.
• Adjustments to pay raises shouldn’t start until 2015. Health care fees, co-pays and deductibles for retirees on the other hand will start to rise earlier. Beyond that, DoD is asking Congress to establish a commission to review military retirement. What could go wrong with that?

DID will obviously follow budget developments closely as they unfold and further details are made available. For reference, the FY12 DoD budget documents are found here. In other news:

Happy ‘trails…

The C-17 has had more money-driven last hurrahs than The Who. Even so, FY 2010 featured the USAF’s last planned orders of C-17 Globemaster III short field, heavy-lift transport jets.

The Pentagon had been trying to end the program for years, but 3 factors led led Congress to keep adding new C-17s to the budget, year after year: (1) deep doubts about the premises, pre-9/11 vintage, and quality of the Pentagon’s mobility studies; (2) uncertainty concerning the C-5 Galaxy super-heavy transport’s upgrade programs; and (3) a fleet wear tempo much higher than originally forecast, driven by constant requests from theater for C-17s.

All things end, and there were no new C-17s bought in the FY 2011 or FY 2012 budgets. That would leave the USA with a total ordered fleet of 223, once they’re all under contract. At long last, they are:

• According to Bloomberg the FY13 President Budget submission date has been postponed from Feb. 6 to Feb. 13. Meanwhile House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) is suggesting to chip at sequestration one year at a time if rolling back the whole 10 years proves too much of a hurdle.

• Sen. Claire McCaskill [D-MO] is pushing for FAA commercial certification of a civilian “BC-17” heavy transport aircraft. DoD Buzz doesn’t seem to understand that there’s a significant global market for outside cargo delivery, and that the C-17’s short takeoff & landing capabilities could be useful to industries like mining, that operate in austere locations with smaller airstrips.

• US Army installations get together to share progress toward “NetZero” energy & waste goals.

• The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) looks at [PDF] the tax revenue implications of defense acquisition choices and finds that “the tax revenues are significant; they can yield to the Exchequer [DID: i.e. Treasury] over a third of the value of the contract.”

• France just bought [in French] 29 small Cobra Mk2 robots from Eca Robotics in Toulon, for use in finding and detonating land mines.

• US SOCOM’s 75th Ranger Regiment deploys to Afghanistan with GD’s AN/PRC-154 JTRS HMS Rifleman Radio, and Android-based Itronix GD300 wearable computers.

• Even a dying satellite has lessons to teach. GPS-IIA satellite SVN-30 is doing just that for the USAF.

• The US National Weather Services’ Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now operational at the NWS Omaha Weather Forecast Office, the 1st of 135 forecast sites to upgrade. It’s a Raytheon system.

KC-390 refuels AMXs

More supplier decisions. (Jan 19/12)

Global competition in the 20-ton air transport segment continues to intensify, with Brazil’s launch of its KC-390 program. Embraer figures reportedly place the global C-130 replacement market at around 700 aircraft. In response, it will develop a jet-powered rival to compete with Lockheed Martin’s C-130J, the larger Airbus A400M, Russia’s AN-12 and its Chinese copy the Yun-8/9, and the bi-national Irkut/HAL MRTA project. Smaller aircraft like the EADS-CASA C-295M, and Alenia’s C-27J, may also represent indirect competition.

Embraer is extending its efforts and markets by crafting a jet-powered medium transport with a cargo capacity of around 23 tons, that can be refueled in the air, and can provide refueling services to other aircraft by adding dedicated pods. The KC-390 has now become a multinational effort, and may be shaping up as the C-130’s most formidable future competitor…

• The KC-390: Program [updated]
• The KC-390: Aircraft
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings: Competitors
  Continue Reading… »

KC-135: Old as the hills…

DOT&E: KC-46A test schedule & promises “not executable”; USAF disagrees. (Jan 19/12)

DID’s FOCUS articles cover major weapons acquisition programs – and no program is more important to the USAF than its bid to replace its aerial tanker fleet. In January 2007, the big question was whether there would be a competition for the USA’s KC-X proposal, covering 175 production aircraft and 4 test platforms. The total cost for this first phase alone will exceed $25 billion, but America’s aerial tanker fleet demands new planes to replace its KC-135s, whose most recent new delivery was in 1965. Otherwise, unpredictable age or fatigue issues, like the ones that grounded its F-15A-D fighters in 2008, could ground its aerial tankers – and with them, a substantial slice of the USA’s total airpower.

KC-Y and KC-Z contracts may follow in subsequent decades, in order to replace all 530 (195 active; ANG 251; Reserve 84) active tankers, as well as the USAF’s 59 heavy KC-10 tankers that were delivered from 1979-1987. Then again, fiscal and demographic realities may mean that the 179 plane KC-X buy is it for the USAF. Either way, the stakes were huge for all concerned.

In the end, it was Team Boeing’s KC-767 NexGen/ KC-46A (767 derivative) vs. EADS North America’s KC-45A (Airbus KC-30/A330-200 derivative), both within the Pentagon and in the halls of Congress. The financial and employment stakes guaranteed a huge political fight no matter which side won. A fight that ended up sinking, and restarting, the entire program, after Airbus won in February 2008. Three years later, Boeing won the recompete:

• KC-X: The Story So Far
• KC-X: Teams & Locations
• KC-X RFP: Contracts & Key Developments [updated]
• Appendix A: KC-X RFP v2.0 – The New Structure
• Appendix B: The Contenders and The Cargo Factor – KC-30B, KC-767… KC-777?
• Appendix C: Additional Readings
  Continue Reading… »

C-130 AMP cockpit
(click to view larger)

Plane #4 delivered; Program headed for cancellation? (Jan 3/12)

The USA’s C-130E/H fleet suffers from 2 key problems: (1) many aircraft, especially Air National Guard planes, aren’t flyable, or won’t remain so much longer; and (2) their avionics are too old to meet modern standards for flight in civil airspace, just as standards are set to tighten in 2015.

The 1st problem is being addressed by major structural rework, inspections, and groundings. The 2nd problem was supposed to be addressed by the C-130 AMP program, begun in 2001 in order to improve aircraft fight-readiness, flight times, flexibility, and fuel use. Higher than expected costs left the US military considering program cancellation, however, even as initial AMP contracts, and progress, continued to inch along. Now, Boeing may have finally broken through…

• The C-130 AMP [updated]
• Contract & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  Continue Reading… »