Galileo concept

2nd large contract series; EC: We want another EUR 7 billion; New build site opened; 1st operational launch; Major article updates. (Feb 2/12)

The USA’s Global Positioning System service remains free, but the European Union is spending billions to create an alternative under their own control. In addition to civilian GPS (the Open Service), services to be offered include a Safety of Life Service (SoL) for civil aviation and search and rescue, a paid Commercial Service with accuracy greater than 1 meter, plus a Public Regulated Service (PRS) for use by security authorities and governments. PRS/SoL aims to offer Open Service quality, with added robustness against jamming and the reliable detection of problems within 10 seconds.

Organizational issues and shortfalls in expected progress pushed the “Galileo” project back from its originally intended operational date of 2007 to 2014/15. After a public-private partnership model failed, the EU gained initial-stage approval for its plan to finance the program with tax dollars instead of the expected private investments. Political issues were overcome in 2007 by raiding other EU accounts for the billions required, but by 2011, it became clear that requests for billions more in public funds were on the way. Meanwhile, doubts persist in several quarters about Galileo’s touted economic model. Security concerns regarding China’s involvement, and its Beidou-2/Compass project overlap, have been equally persistent. On a European political level, however, Galileo is now irreversible.

This article offers background, players, developments, contracts, and in-depth research links for Galileo, as well as linked EU programs like GIOVE and EGNOS:

• The Galileo Program
  • Galileo: The System [updated]
  • Galileo Elements [updated]
  • Galileo Structure & Costs [updated]
  • Galileo Timeline [NEW]
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
  • PNT alternatives
  • News & Views
  • The Security Dimension
    Continue Reading… »

P-8A Poseidon

1st full sim & WTT delivered; $227M for certification. (Feb 1/2)

Maritime surveillance and patrol is becoming more and more important, but the USA’s P-3 Orion fleet is falling apart. The P-8A emerged from the ashes of the P-7 Long Range Air ASW (Anti-Submarine Warfare) Capable Aircraft program that was begun in 1988. That program originally envisaged an improved P-3, but cost overruns, slow progress, and interest in opening the competition to commercial designs, led to the P-7’s cancellation for default in 1990. The successor MMA program was begun in March 2000, and Boeing beat Lockheed’s “Orion 21” with a design based on their ubiquitous 737 passenger jet.

Filling the P-3 Orion’s shoes is certainly no easy task. What missions will the new P-8A Poseidon face? What do we know about the platform, the project team, and ongoing developments? Will the P-3’s level of global customer coverage give its successor a comparable level of export opportunities? Australia and India have already signed on, but has the larger market shifted in the interim?

• P-8A Poseidon: Platform & Capabilities
  • The P-8’s BAMS Companion: Kicking It Up a Notch
• P-8A Poseidon: History & Program
  • US Program Budgets
  • Numbers & Basing
  • P-8A Industrial Partners [updated]
• P-8A Poseidon: Contracts & Events [updated]
• News & Analysis: India’s Interest, and Broader Export Potential
• Additional Readings & Sources
• Additional Readings & Sources: News & Updates
  Continue Reading… »

IAF: Jaguar, Mirage 2000
SU-30K, MiG-27, MiG-21BiS

Rafale is the “L-1” preferred bidder. (Jan 31/12)

“It’s the biggest fighter aircraft deal since the early 1990s,” said Boeing’s Mark Kronenberg, who runs the company’s Asia/Pacific business. India’s planned multi-billion dollar, 126+ plane jet fighter buy became a contest between Dassault, Saab, MiG, American competitors and EADS’ Eurofighter.

What began as a lightweight fighter competition to replace India’s shrinking MiG-21 interceptor fleet appears to have bifurcated into 2 categories now, and 2 expense tiers. What’s going on? In a word, lots. The participants changed, India’s view of its own needs is changing, and the nature of the order may be changing as well. With the long-delayed release of the official $10 billion RFP, the competition began at last – and like all Indian decisions, it takes a very long time. DID offers an in-depth look at the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) competition’s changes, the RFP, and the competitors; and also offers an updated timeline regarding competitive moves since this article was first published in March 2006:

• India’s MRCA: Changes
• MMRCA: The RFP, Please…
• The Competitors: Analysis [updated]
• MMRCA: Updates and Developments [updated]
• Appendix A – MMRCA: The Naval Angle
• Appendix B – Dassault’s Move: Au Revoir, Mirage
• Appendix C – Additional Readings
  Continue Reading… »

F-15K Poster: apropos?

Russia declines; Saab steps up. (Jan 28/12)

The ROKAF (Republic of Korea Air Force) originally planned to buy 120 advanced, high-end fighters as its next-generation platform, in order to replace its existing fleet of F-4 Phantom IIs and other aircraft. So far, it has bought 60 fighters in 2 phases. Back in 2002, the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) selected the F-15K advanced derivative of the F-15E Strike Eagle for its Next Generation Fighter Program, and bought 40. In 2008, a 2nd contract was signed for 20 more F-15ks, with slight modifications.

Now the 3rd phase looms, and the question is whether it will be a variant of their existing fleet, or something new. While the DAPA procurement agency dreamed of developing their own “5th generation” aircraft for Phase 3, reality eventually had its say. Now, foreign manufacturers are offering the ROKAF a number of options…

• F-X to KF-X: The ROKAF’s Best-Laid Plans… [updated]
  • The ROKAF’s F-X-2
  • F-X-3 and KF-X
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings, News & Events [updated]
• Appendix A: Original F-X-2 Candidates
• Appendix B: Which SU-35?

Swiss F-5Es

Dassault: “Oh, you meant our FINAL final offer…” (Jan 29/12)

The F-5E/F Tiger II was a follow-on upgrade to the wildly successful F-5 Freedom Fighter, a low-budget aircraft designed to capture the lower tier of the non-Soviet global fighter market in the 1960s and 1970s. A number of countries still operate F-5s, but the airframes are very old. While F-5 owners like Brazil, Chile, Thailand, et. al. have opted for comprehensive refurbishment and upgrades, Switzerland is looking to replace 3 of its 5 Tiger II squadrons with new aircraft under its Tiger-Teilersatz TTE program. The new fighters will partner with the 3 squadrons of upgraded F/A-18C/D Hornets that make up the rest of its fighter fleet.

An initial evaluation RFP was issued to 4 contenders, but Boeing’s withdrawal narrowed the selection to Sweden’s Gripen, France’s Rafale, or EADS’ Eurofighter. A 2010 suspension of the competition was followed by a measured revival, thanks to the latest budgets – and now, by a provisional winner. No matter who won, though, left-wing opponents of Switzerland’s military would be working hard to derail the purchase. It’s likely to face a national referendum, just like the 1993 F/A-18 Hornet sale…

• The Swiss Competition
• The Competitors
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  Continue Reading… »

YRH-70 test, 2005

AAS budget realities; Article updates. (Jan 30/12)

The US Army’s ARH (Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter) program aimed to replace around 375 Bell Textron OH-58D Kiowa Warrior helicopters, after the $14.6 billion RAH-66 Comanche program, was canceled in 2004. Instead, the Army would buy a larger number of less expensive platforms, with reduced capabilities. Bell Helicopter Textron initially won the ARH competition with a militarized version of its highly successful 407 single-engine commercial helicopter, but despite significant private investment after Army funding stopped in March 2007, spiraling costs killed the ARH-70 in October 2008.

What hasn’t changed is the battlefield need for on-call, front-line aerial surveillance and fire support. With its existing OH-58D stock wither wearing down, or shot down, the Army needs to do something. But what? This will serve as DID’s FOCUS Article for the ARH program, and its potential successor the Armed Aerial Scout. It includes updated background, coverage of contracts and key events, and additional research materials:

• The ARH Program: What Happened? [updated]
• ARH: Now What? [updated]
• The ARH Program: Contracts & Events [updated]
• Appendix A: Weary Warriors – The Army’s OH-58D Kiowa Warrior Fleet [updated]
• Appendix B: Initial Winner – Bell’s ARH-70
• Appendix C: Additional Readings & Sources
  Continue Reading… »

• Australian Defence Minister Stephen Smith told reporters the Department will review their JSF purchase timetable, in light last week’s confirmation that the US will take it slow.

• Jim Maslowski, President at Hawker Beechcraft Defense and a former US Navy Rear Admiral, is retiring tomorrow. Meanwhile retired USMC Gen. James E. Cartwright joined Raytheon’s board and former US Deputy Secretary of Defense William J. Lynn III has been confirmed as DRS Technologies’ new Chairman and CEO.

• EADS plans a big round of top management changes, in the usual balancing act between Germany and France: Tom Enders will replace Louis Gallois as CEO while Arnaud Lagardere take over as Chairman of the Board from Bodo Uebber.

• Opinions on the Pentagon’s budget preview: FPI, CRFB, Heritage, Stimson Center, and a video from CSIS at the bottom of this entry. CSIS ran these slides [PDF] during the talk that include a few multi-decade charts showing how previous drawdowns were executed. They’re not sold on booking $60B in efficiency savings before said savings are realized.

• Iraq’s future F-16IQ pilots have begun training in the USA. And Iraq’s officials have begun protesting the presence of American (unarmed) UAVs they’re saying they haven’t authorized.

• A Heron TP UAV crashed yesterday in Israel during tests, apparently because of a human error.

• “It’s not a case of IEDs on the battlefield. IEDs are the battlefield.” Says Joint IED Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) Director Lt. Gen. Michael D. Barbero quoting an officer in Afghanistan.
  Continue Reading… »

Runway Buzz: L-159As

Iraq is still interested, despite reports of an oil-for planes deal with South Korea. (Jan 24/12)

Czechoslovakia originally ordered 72 of Aero Vodochody’s sub-sonic L-159A single-seat light attack jets. Their preceding L-39/59 Albatros trainer and light attack aircraft family became the world’s most popular jet trainers during the Cold War, and the L-159A Advanced Light Combat Aircraft was positioned as a modern derivative, offering full combat capability and compatibility with western weapons. The resulting aircraft filled a useful niche for the Czechs, but its overall success always depended on exports.

Unfortunately, the Soviet Union’s demise lost the Albatros family its global market niche, and the military aid subsidies that had helped promote it. Worse, the L-159’s program cost grew from CZK 20-30 billion to over 51 billion Koruna. That left the government in a bind. In response, they’ve been trying to keep 24-35 jets for operational use, and sell off 36-47 of the L-159As (one aircraft has been lost), since 2002. They also moved to privatize state-owned Aero Vodochody, which took place in November 2006.

A few 2-seat L-159T conversions have been performed with CzAF funding, as a demonstration of their potential to become dual-role trainer/attack aircraft. That has helped Aero tout the planes to Afghanistan, Bolivia, Colombia, Georgia, Indonesia, Nigeria… and Iraq, which may finally get them a breakthrough.

• Aero’s Market Conundrum [NEW]
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
  Continue Reading… »

• Defense Secretary Panetta removes the F-35B STOVL (Short Take-Off, Vertical Landing) from its 2-year probation, just 1 year in. Rolls Royce is very happy. James Hasik adds some thoughts about the timing.

• Panetta also stated the US will keep 11 aircraft carriers.

• The US Army responds to complaints that their policy of refusing to arm MEDEVAC helicopters, in a war against illegal combatants, has led to delayed response and extra casualties.

• Fresh from its UAV pact with Alenia, EADS signs an agreement with Rheinmetall for a joint venture in the UAV field. Rheinmetall makes the KZO tactical UAV, which has been fielded in Afghanistan alongside Germany’s longer-range, Rheinmetall-operated, leased Heron-1 UAVs.

• Looks like Colombia was the country that recently joined Israel and Chile as Hermes 900 MALE UAV customers. The Hermes 900 is a Predator-size UAV, from the firm that makes Britain’s new MK450B Watchkeeper system.

• Australia’s Army has temporarily suspended S-70A Black Hawk helicopter flights, due to fractured bolts. The RAN’s S-70B Seahawk naval helicopters are different enough that they remain unaffected.

• The Navy thinks a small heli-UAV is just the thing to keep tabs on agricultural data at its Maui (Hawaii) experimental biofuel farm.

• US House Armed Service Committee (HASC) Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ-8) is resigning from Congress.

• Forthcoming HASC hearings: Getting Innovative Solutions from Concept to the Hands of the Warfighter (this afternoon); episode XXXVIII of Perspectives on Financial Improvement and Audit Readiness Efforts (tomorrow morning).

• According to Reuters the “activist” hedge fund MMI Investments LP is liquidating, after having taken positions in several defense and aerospace companies in the past couple of years.

Saab concept

Official presentation of the demonstrator; Project updates. (Jan 20/12)

In November 2005, a Forecast International report on the future UAV market saw trouble coming for the proposed 6-nation nEUROn Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV) project. In the end, however, Sweden signed on and the project got rolling, with committed funding of EUR 535 million and counting. The French DGA (Délégation Générale pour l’Armement) procurement agency is acting as program executive.

The Neuron project joins Britain’s Taranis UCAV, Russia’s MiG SKAT, Boeing’s X-45 Phantom Ray, and the US Navy’s X-47 UCAS-D program as UCAV projects with fighter-substitution potential. This FOCUS article explains the Neuron program’s 3-fold goals, the envisioned platform, the program structure, and its schedule:

• Neuron: The Aircraft
• Neuron: The Program [updated]
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings and Sources [updated]
  Continue Reading… »