Patriot PAC-2
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A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the infamous NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1]. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create havoc in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

In June 2008, over $10 billion worth of December 2007 Patriot missile upgrade requests in the UAE and Kuwait shone a spotlight on the region’s new defense priorities. In December 2008, a multi-billion dollar Patriot missile contract from the UAE seemed to lock in that shift, and Kuwait is proceeding with upgrades to its own Patriot systems. Upgrades that have led to recent contracts, and sales requests…

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F-35A: incoming…
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The F-35 Lightning II is a major multinational program which is intended to produce an “affordably stealthy” multi-role strike fighter that will have three variants: the F-35A conventional version for the US Air Force et. al.; the F-35B Short Take-Off, Vertical Landing for the US Marines, British Royal Navy, et. al.; and the F-35C conventional carrier-launched version for the US Navy. The aircraft is named after Lockheed’s famous WW2 P-38 Lightning, and the Mach 2, stacked-engine English Electric (now BAE) Lightning jet. System development partners included The USA & Britain (Tier 1), Italy and the Netherlands (Tier 2), and Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Turkey (Tier 3), with Singapore and Israel as “Security Cooperation Partners.” Now the challenge is agreeing on production phase membership and arrangements, to be followed by initial purchase commitments around 2008-2009.

This updated article has expanded to feature more detail regarding the $300 billion F-35 program, including other contracts as well as notable events. New material is highlighted by putting it in green type. Recent news include an investigation by the Fort Worth Star-Telegram into JET’s conclusions regarding program delays, Lockheed Martin’s response, and a Rolls Royce contract for production LiftSystem engine modules…

• The F-35 Family of Aircraft (i.e. “Continue reading…”)
• F-35 Program: Production Timelines & Structure
• F-35 Program: Controversies and Competitions
• F-35 Program: Events & Developments, CY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: System Development & Production Contracts, FY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: Ancillary and Sub-contracts, FY 2009 – 2010 [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
  
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cutaway view
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Saab recently announced a 1.5 billion SEK (about $220 million) contract from the United Arab Emirates for 2 of its Saab 340 regional turboprops, equipped with Erieye active-array radars that can scan large airspace volumes, and with related command and control systems. The Saab 340 AEW contract also includes ground equipment, initial spares, and support services. An official statement hinted at more orders to come, saying that:

“The UAE Air Force & Air Defence is currently evaluating several options to purchase permanent solution Command and Early Warning aircraft to meet the UAE Armed Forces operational requirements.”

The UAE is just the latest buyer of Saab’s Erieye system…

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RAF Eurofighters, Nevada
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BAE’s growing expertise with “contracting for availability” performance-based support are netting it important international contracts, as well as British ones.

Britain is already implementing the Typhoon Availability Service (TAS) for its Eurofighter fleet. With 4 of 72 Typhoons delivered to the Royal Saudi Air Force, and flying operations commencing, on Oct 12/09, BAE systems announced a detailed 3-year contract for “The Salam Support Solution.” This is a full availability-based service contract, which also includes Saudi pilot training in the UK and training for RSAF maintenance technicians. The deal’s value was not disclosed, but Saudi support contracts tend to be very large due to the range of contractor services they need.

BAE Systems followed that up by announcing a 5.5 year performance-based contract worth more than GBP 400 million (currently about $654 million), to support the ECR-90 radars and defensive aids sub systems (DASS) on the core partner nations’ Eurofighter fleets. Now, SELEX Galileo is announcing a large sub-contract…

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G/ATOR diorama
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The US military’s long run of unquestioned air superiority has led to shortcuts in mobile land-based air defenses, and the US Marines are no exception. A December 2005 release from Sen. Schumer’s office [D-NY] said that: “Current radar performance does not meet operational forces requirements… consequences could potentially allow opposing forces to gain air and ground superiority in future operational areas.”

One of the programs in the works to address this gap is the G/ATOR mobile radar system. It’s actually the result of fusing two programs: the Multi-Role Radar System (MRRS), and Ground Weapons Locator Radar (GWLR) requirements. When G/ATOR Increment IV becomes operational, it will replace and consolidate numerous legacy radars, including the AN/TPS-63 air surveillance, AN/MPQ-62 force control, AN/TPS-73 air traffic control, AN/UPS-3 air defense, and AN/TPQ-36/37 artillery tracking & locating radar systems.

The latest updates involve a contract modification that will change G/ATOR’s associated vehicle…

• G/ATOR: Technology Challenges & Industrial Members [NEW]
• The G/ATOR Program [updated]
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources, incl. Related Systems [updated]
  
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IAF: Jaguar, Mirage 2000
SU-30K, MiG-27, MiG-21BiS
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“It’s the biggest fighter aircraft deal since the early 1990s,” said Boeing’s Mark Kronenberg, who runs the company’s Asia/Pacific business. DID has offered ongoing coverage of India’s planned multi-billion dollar jet fighter buy, from its early days as a contest between Dassault, Saab, and MiG for a 126 plane order to the entry of American competitors and even EADS’ Eurofighter.

What began as a lightweight fighter competition to replace India’s shrinking MiG-21 interceptor fleet appears to have bifurcated into 2 categories now, and 2 expense tiers. What’s going on? In a word, lots. The participants changed, India’s view of its own needs is changing, and the nature of the order may be changing as well – but with the release of the official $10 billion RFP, the competition can begin at last. DID offers an in-depth look at the MRCA/MMRCA competition’s changes, the RFP, and the competitors; and also offers an updated timeline regarding competitive moves since this article was published in March 2006.

The RFP responses were submitted in April 2008, and the IAF is beginning the competitive fly-off. France’s Rafale has climbed back into the race, but the breakdown of negotiations to upgrade the IAF’s Mirage 2000s may damage its chances, even as it increases the MMRCA order…

• India’s MRCA (Multi-Role Combat Aircraft): Changes (i.e. “Continue reading…”)
• MMRCA: The RFP, Please…
• The Competitors: Analysis
• MMRCA: Updates and Developments [updated]
• Appendix A – MMRCA: The Naval Angle
• Appendix B – Dassault’s Move: Au Revoir, Mirage
• Additional Readings
  
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Northrop Grumman’s E-2C Hawkeye serves as the US Navy and French Navy’s carrier-capable “mini-AWACS” aircraft. Its primary role is advance warning of incoming aerial threats; ship-based radars are far larger and more powerful, but cannot scan below the angle of the horizon. Secondary roles include strike command and control, land and maritime surveillance, search and rescue, communications relay, and even civil air traffic control during emergencies. E-2C Hawkeyes began replacing previous Hawkeye versions in 1973; they also fly from land bases in the militaries of Egypt, Japan, Mexico, Singapore, and Taiwan; and are flown by the US Naval Reserve in a drug interdiction role. Over 200 Hawkeyes have been produced.

The $17.5 billion E-2D Advanced Hawkeye program aims to build 75 new aircraft with significant radar, engine, and electronics upgrades in order to deal with a world of stealthier cruise missiles, saturation attacks, and a growing need for ground surveillance as well as aerial scans. It looks a lot like the last generation E-2C Hawkeye 2000 upgrade on the outside – but inside, and even outside to some extent, it’s a whole new aircraft.

DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. This DID FOCUS Article covers the E-2D program, from the new platform and its capabilities to the budgets, contracts, and companies making it all fly. The latest news involves a $15.6 million Northrop Grumman order to provide Phase I aircraft data management for the E-2D aircraft…

• From E-2A Hawkeye to the E-2D
• E-2D Advanced Hawkeye: Program
• E-2D Advanced Hawkeye: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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LPD-17 cutaway
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LPD-17 San Antonio class amphibious assault support vessels are a new class of ship which is just entering service with the US Navy. Much like their predecessors, their mission is to embark, transport, land, and support elements of a US Marine Corps Landing Force. What changes are the capabilities and technologies incorporated to perform that mission. This new ship class includes significant internal technology and design upgrades, and is designed to operate accompanying platforms like the V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft and the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle amphibious armored personnel carrier.

Between 10-11 scheduled ships of this class are slated to assume the functional duties of up to 41 previous ships, including the USA’s older LSD-36 USS Anchorage class dock landing ships (all decommissioned as of 2004, LSD-36 and LSD-38 transferred to Taiwan) and its LPD-4 USS Austin Class ships (12 built and serving, LPD 14 Trenton now India’s INS Jalashva). The San Antonio class ships may also replace 2 classes of ships currently mothballed and held in reserve status under the Amphibious Lift Enhancement Program (ALEP): the LST-1179 Newport class tank landing ships, and LKA-113 Charleston class amphibious cargo ships.

Welcome to Norfolk…
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Replacing that many existing ships is already a very tall order. While its design incorporates notable advances, the San Antonio Class has also had its share of teething problems. So, too, has the New Orleans shipyard to which most of this contract has been assigned. The number of serious issues encountered in this ship class have been much higher than usual, and more extensive. The initial ships have been criticized for sub-standard workmanship, and it took 2 1/2 years after the initial ship of class was delivered and accepted before any ship of class was sent on an operational cruise. Whereupon the USS San Antonio promptly found itself laid up Bahrain due to oil leaks. Meanwhile, costs are almost twice the originally promised amounts at over $1.7 billion per ship – 2 to 3 times as much as many foreign LPD classes, and more than 10 times as much as Singapore’s 6,600 ton Endeavour Class LPD.

DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. This is DID’s FOCUS Article for the San Antonio Class, detailing the ships’ unique features and capabilities, its program innovations and issues, ship timelines, and related contracts throughout the program’s history. As has become DID custom, the most recent additions are highlighted in green type. The latest developments include a contract to Raytheon that could be worth over $175 million, and the imminent commissioning of the LPD 21 New York, which contains steel from the destroyed World Trade Center…

• LPD-17 San Antonio Class: Capabilities and Features
• LPD-17 San Antonio Class: Process & Issues
• LPD-17 San Antonio Class: Program, Budgets & Timelines [updated]
• LPD-17 San Antonio Class: Contracts and Events (1996-Present) [updated]
• Appendix A: Additional Readings & Sources – LPD-17 Ship Class
• Appendix B: Additional Readings & Sources – News and Views
  
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AN/SPQ-9B radar

Northrop Grumman Systems Corp. in Melville, NY recently received a pair of contracts from America and Australia for the AN/SPQ-9B radar system. That radar was the main air defense radar on several American destroyer and cruiser classes, but is now relegated to a secondary role on advanced air defense ships. It provides the capability to detect and track low-flying, high-speed, small radar cross-section anti-ship missile targets in heavy clutter environments.

The AN/SPQ-9 radar is currently installed on CG-47 Ticonderoga class guided-missile cruisers, where this track-while-scan radar can be integrated into the Mk 86 gun fire control system (GFCS) or the Aegis Combat Direction System. It is also the primary radar on the LHA-1 Tarawa class amphibious landing ships. As for the AN/SPQ-9B…

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French Mirage F1s
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Morocco’s combat air force currently flies 2 squadrons of old F-5s, and 2 squadrons of only slightly newer Mirage F1s; T-37 light jets serve as key transitional trainers. Their neighbor and rival Algeria flies MiG-23s of similar vintage, but the Force Aerienne Algerienne also flies SU-24 Fencer and SU-25 Frogfoot strike aircraft, even more modern and capable MiG-29s, and is set to receive multi-role SU-30MKs as part of a multi-billion dollar weapons deal with Russia.

Morocco can’t beat that array. Instead, they’re looking for replacement aircraft that will prevent complete overmatch, and provide a measure of security. Initially, they looked to France. France’s Rafale is part of a set of European 4+ generation fighters that were developed and fielded during the 1990s-early 21st century, with the aim of surpassing existing offerings among America’s “teen series” fighters, as well as Russia’s Mig-29 Fulcrum and SU-27/30 Flanker family. “Dogfight at the Casbah: Rafale vs. F-16” discussed the French sales slip-ups that cost Dassault its first export order for the 4+ generation fighter. That outcome is now official.

Just to make things worse, the final multi-billion dollar deal involves new-build F-16s, at a price comparable to the rumored figures for the Rafale. Not to mention an accompanying American deal to replace Morocco’s T-37 trainer fleet with T-6Cs, and contracts for air-launched weapons, targeting pods, and C-27J short-haul transports. The latest development includes a DSCA request for CH-47D helicopters…

• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Why The F-16? DID Analysis – Dec. 2007
• Additional Readings
  
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