USAF OV-10
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In August 2007, “Indonesia’s Air Force Adds More Flankers” chronicled its purchase of Russian SU-27SK and SU-30MKK fighters. The Flankers would supplement and/or replace fleets of F-16A/B and F-5E/F Tiger II fighters, whose condition was harmed by a long arms embargo imposed in response to widespread repression and genocide in East Timor.

East Timor became independent in 2002, and the American embargo on military supplies to Indonesia was lifted in 2005. Nevertheless, the effects of foregone maintenance can be lasting, and the experience was firmly etched into Indonesia’s military consciousness. Subsequent incidents, such as the UK’s injunctions against using British-made Scorpion light tanks against Aceh’s separatist revolt, only deepened the determination of Indonesia’s military and political leaders to deal with a different set of military suppliers.

In fall 2007, “Indonesia Signs $1B+ Defense Credit Agreement With Russia” chronicled the next step under that policy. Now Indonesia is looking to replace its fleets of BAE Hawk Mk.53 trainer jets, and OV-10 Bronco forward air control/ counterinsurgency aircraft. Their replacements will reportedly be Russian – and Chinese…

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J-10S
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Pakistan and China have been cooperating for a number of years on the JF-17/ FC-1 Thunder, a low-medium performance, low-cost aircraft that has attracted interest and orders from a number of 3rd World air forces. In November 2009, a long-rumored deal was announced for China’s Jian-10/ FC-20 4+ generation fighter, whose overall performance compares well with the F-16C/D Block 52 aircraft that Pakistan has ordered from the United States.

The J-10 has been reported as a derivative of the 1980s Israeli Lavi project, and reportedly incorporates an Israeli fly-by-wire control base that was transferred in the project’s early years. The change in relations that followed the Tienanmen Square massacre hurt the J-10 project badly, however, forcing the replacement of planned Western avionics and engines with Chinese and Russian equipment. The required redesign was very extensive, affected all areas of the airframe, and took over a decade, amounting to the development of a new aircraft. The first operational J-10 unit entered service with the PLAAF in July 2004.

China has reportedly ordered 100 J-10s to date. The initial Pakistani order is for 2 squadrons, but could expand as technical cooperation and orders increase. The $1+ billion sale represents the J-10’s first export order… but almost certainly not its last.

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Galileo concept
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The European Union is cooperating with a number of outside investors to replace the USA’s free Global Positioning System service with an alternative under their own control. In addition to civilian GPS (the Open Service), services to be offered include a paid Commercial Service (with accuracy greater than 1 meter), and a Public Regulated Service (PRS)/ Safety of Life Service (SoL) for use by security authorities (police, military, etc.) and safety-critical transport applications (air-traffic control, automated aircraft landing, etc.). PRS/SoL aims to offer Open Service quality, with added robustness against jamming and the reliable detection of problems within 10 seconds.

Organizational issues and shortfalls in expected progress pushed the “Galileo” project back from its originally intended operational date of 2007 to 2013-14 – and doubts persist in several quarters about its economic model, even as security issues arise regarding China’s COMPASS project. After a public-private partnership model failed to agree among themselves or with the EU’s desired terms, the organization gained initial-stage approval for its plan to finance the program with tax dollars instead of the expected private investments. Political issues were overcome, albeit with some protest, by raiding other EU accounts for over EUR 3 billion (about $5.35 billion) in funds, rather than asking for more money from member states.

The latest set of updates cover developments in Galileo, and in related programs like GIOVE and EGNOS. While the project’s base funding is now more secure, its ability to remain within budget faces issues, as does the expected launch timetable. Recent events may even lead to a smaller Galileo constellation…

• Galileo: Goals, Structure & Costs
• “Eppur, Si Bloccare”: Trials & Tribulations [updated]
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Appendix A: The EU Proposal – Going Forward (2007)
• Appendix B: Additional Readings [updated]
• Appendix C: Additional Readings – The Security Dimension
  
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RN CVF Concept
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In 1998, Britain’s Strategic Defence review (SDR) announced plans to replace the current set of 3 Invincible Class 22,000t escort carriers with 2 larger, more capable Future Aircraft Carrier (CVF) ships that could operate a more powerful force. These new carriers would be joint-service platforms, operating aircraft and UAVs from all 3 services (Navy, RAF, Army) in roles that could include ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance), force projection and logistics support, close air support, anti-submarine/ anti-surface naval warfare, and land attack.

The scale of the CVF effort relative to Britain’s past experiences means that the program structure is rather complex. It has passed through several stages already, and is being run and conducted within an industrial alliance framework. There is also a parallel international framework, involving cooperation with France on its PA2 carrier as a larger derivative of the CVF design.

This DID FOCUS article covers that structure and framework, ongoing developments, and the ships themselves as they round toward final design, construction, and fielding. The latest addition involves a report that one of the 2 carriers has been quasi-canceled, and Britain’s F-35 buy will be severely slashed…

• The CVF Queen Elizabeth Class (“continue reading…”)
• Program Team: The Aircraft Carrier Alliance
• CVF Program Management
• The CVF Program: Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• CVF-Related Contracts and Events
• Additional Readings & Sources: The Program
• Additional Readings & Sources: The Ships
  
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Canadian T-33, on display
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The Fuerza Aerea Boliviana wants to replace its 16 obsolete Lockheed T-33s, a fleet of trainer and light attack jets whose design is derived from the USAAF/ USAF’s first jet fighter, the P-80 Shooting Star. American production ended during the late 1950s, but licensed builds ended later, and it is still in service with some air forces around the world.

Bolivia has discussed possible deals for EMB-314 Super Tucano aircraft with Brazil, and spent a great deal of time negotiating with The Czech Republic for some of its surplus L-159 ALCA/ L-159T advanced trainers and light attack jets. Unlike their popular Soviet-era L-39/L-59 counterparts, however, the L-159 was designed for compatibility with NATO equipment, and featured a number of American components. That proved the sale’s undoing. The USA invoked ITAR military technology transfer laws, and blocked the export to Chavez ally Evo Morales’ government.

In response, Bolivia turned to a Chinese/Pakistani joint venture, and will soon receive its jets…

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F-22: Climbing Mt. Fuji?
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Back in February 2006, InsideDefense.com’s Inside The Air Force (ITAF) reported that momentum was building within the Air Force to sell the ultra-advanced F-22A Raptor abroad to trusted U.S. allies, as a way of plussing up numbers and production. The USAF originally initially intended to purchase 700-800 F-22 fighters, but that was cut to 442, then 381, and recently cut again to just over 180. These cuts have had obvious effects on the cost per aircraft, and on the ratio of aircraft to total R&D + production money spent. With F-22 production set to terminate around 2010, and increasing concern over the capability gap between other US fighters and global competitors like the SU-30 family, MiG-35, et. al., some USAF planners are becoming concerned. Extending the F-22 production line through exports is also a way of extending the USA’s decision options.

One of the most likely export prospects is Japan. The Raptor has been discussed at a 2007 summit meeting, and in a number of other venues. Meanwhile, BAE Systems is looking to pounce with its Eurofighter if the US remains intransigent, and Boeing has offered an interesting F-15SE option of its own. A recent Reuters report indicates that Japan is beginning to pick up F-22EX supporters, however, including a prominent US Senator…

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RSS Formidable and
INS Brahmaputra
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Agence France Presse quotes naval consultancy AMI International, whose analysts are forecasting that Asian states will spend $60 billion to modernize their navies in the next 5 years. That amount is very similar to the USA’s forecast spend over the same period. If the USA is excluded from calculations, it’s more than the forecast combined spend among all NATO states.

So, where’s the focus expected to be? And who is expected to lead?

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SU-33s: folded, landing
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Near the end of October 2006, Russia’s Kommersant newspaper revealed that Russian state-run weapon exporter Rosoboronexport is completing negotiations with China to deliver up to 48 Sukhoi SU-33 (NATO codename: Flanker-D) carrier-capable fighter aircraft in a purchase deal reportedly worth $2.5 billion. The SU-33 is a variant of Sukhoi’s SU-27 Flanker with forward canards, foldings wings, an arrester hook, a reinforced structure, and other modifications that help it deal with carrier operations and landings.

At present, reports regarding the sale and China’s aircraft carrier intentions both remain somewhat murky. China’s intent to field aircraft carriers is becoming clearer and clearer, but aircraft availability could be a problem. Russian media are reporting a breakdown of negotiations, citing past pirating of Russian designs, while Jane’s says that the long negotiation process continues…

• A Carrier for China?
• Reports and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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Red flag to a
bull defense market

As was the case in the communist Soviet Union, China’s official military budget and real military budget are not the same thing. Many items are hidden under other ministries, or simply not reported truthfully in the absence of accountable government. Official figures are given, however, and for the last 20 years those figures have shown uninterrupted double-digit increases.

That tradition continues in 2009, as the official budget is set to rise to 14.9% to YUAN 480.6 billion (about $70.2 billion) from the 2008 figure of YUAN 417.77 billion ($58.81 billion). In 2006, the equivalent figure was $35 billion, which means the official budget has doubled over that time.

The biggest unanswered questions have to do with the differential between announced and actual figures. RAND’s Project Air Force, which has also studied China’s arms industry modernization, gave a figure of 150% – 200% difference. Other international analysts have estimated the actual budget at up to 400% of the official budget. A related question involves whether or not these differentials are narrowing or remaining stable, as a result of these continuous double-digit increases. SIPRI has side-stepped this issue by using the interesting metric of purchasing power parity, in order to derive a $188 billion figure that was just over 300% of the official total in 2008.

Any of these estimates would make China’s military budget the world’s second-largest, far outpacing competitors like India (reliable, and around $28 billion equivalent). BBC News.

FC-1/ JF-17, armed
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Back in January 2007, DID wrote:

“The military world has no shortage of irony. The defense industry has its moments too, as Pakistan just discovered. An aircraft whose development was driven by military sanctions from the US and Europe is now derailed by military sanctions. This leaves the Pakistani Air Force dependent on an alternative from… America. Meanwhile, the Chinese are left with no export launch customer for a plane they may now have to reluctantly buy themselves, instead of the favoured and more capable J-10. Somewhere in Delhi, champagne is pouring – but first, a bit of background.”

The arms market also features no shortage of change. The agreement India thought it had, was reversed by Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin. Now Pakistan has begun to take delivery of the new fighters, and is reportedly seeking additional agreements with Western firms for avionics and weapons upgrades. India’s competing Tejas fighter is overcoming project delays by looking to foreign component sources, but Pakistan and China remain out front with their offering.

The 2 countries have set up a joint JF-17 marketing agency with China to promote export sales, and signed an agreement for the first 42 operational PAF aircraft. DID has also added technical information and program history…

• The JF-17 Thunder, aka. FC-1 Fierce Dragon [updated]
• JF-17/FC-1: The Program [NEW]
• Stuck in Sichuan: The Saga
• Updates and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings [NEW]
  
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