Patriot PAC-2
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A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the infamous NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1]. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create havoc in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

In June 2008, over $10 billion worth of December 2007 Patriot missile upgrade requests in the UAE and Kuwait shone a spotlight on the region’s new defense priorities. In December 2008, a multi-billion dollar Patriot missile contract from the UAE seemed to lock in that shift, and Kuwait is proceeding with upgrades to its own Patriot systems. Upgrades that have led to recent contracts, and sales requests…

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Adm. Gorshkov: Before.
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This free-to-view DID Spotlight article offers an in-depth look at India’s troubled attempt to convert and field a full-size aircraft carrier, before time and wear force it to retire its existing naval aviation and ships.

Right now, there are 2 major concerns in India. One is slipping timelines. INS Viraat was scheduled to retire in 2009. It’s only semi-operational, and nearing the limits of its mechanical life, even as shortages of flyable Sea Harrier fighters are creating issues of their own. Meanwhile, the delivery date for India’s locally-built 37,000t escort carrier project appears to be slipping to 2015 or so. This leaves India’s Navy with a serious scheduling problem, and no significant carrier force.

The other concern involves Vikramaditya’s 3-fold cost increase, including worries that Russia will raise it rates yet again once India is deeper into the commitment trap. The carrier purchase has now become the subject of high level diplomacy, involving a shipyard that can’t even execute on commercial contracts. An agreement in principle reportedly exists, but negotiations that began in 2007 have yet to lead to a revised contract.

Recent Russian demands have continued to raise the price, even as advance work related to India’s new MiG-29K naval fighters continues. The latest news is a report that India is expressing interest in buying one of Britain’s 65,000t CVF carriers, as negotiations with Russia remain stalled…

• Waiting for Gorshkov – A History
• Gorshkov-Vikramaditya: Aerial Complement
• INS Vikramaditya: Updates & Contracts [updated]
• Appendix A: Additional Readings – Equipment Profiles
• Appendix B: Additional Readings – Related Developments
  
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USAF OV-10
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In August 2007, “Indonesia’s Air Force Adds More Flankers” chronicled its purchase of Russian SU-27SK and SU-30MKK fighters. The Flankers would supplement and/or replace fleets of F-16A/B and F-5E/F Tiger II fighters, whose condition was harmed by a long arms embargo imposed in response to widespread repression and genocide in East Timor.

East Timor became independent in 2002, and the American embargo on military supplies to Indonesia was lifted in 2005. Nevertheless, the effects of foregone maintenance can be lasting, and the experience was firmly etched into Indonesia’s military consciousness. Subsequent incidents, such as the UK’s injunctions against using British-made Scorpion light tanks against Aceh’s separatist revolt, only deepened the determination of Indonesia’s military and political leaders to deal with a different set of military suppliers.

In fall 2007, “Indonesia Signs $1B+ Defense Credit Agreement With Russia” chronicled the next step under that policy. Now Indonesia is looking to replace its fleets of BAE Hawk Mk.53 trainer jets, and OV-10 Bronco forward air control/ counterinsurgency aircraft. Their replacements will reportedly be Russian – and Chinese…

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Avenger
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In November 2009, Chile submitted a pair of purchase requests to the US DSCA whose net effect would be to create a mobile short-range air defense system for its army. Chile’s Ejercito currently relies on MBDA’s shoulder-fired Mistral missiles for this role, but the addition of Avenger fire units and Sentinel radars would offer quantum leaps forward in mobility and battlefield awareness.

Rebounds in commodity prices have helped several nations, Chile among them. The country’s goal is to modernize their military by 2015, and mechanized forces seem to be playing a much greater role in the new structure. Recent military purchases have included Leopard 2A4 tanks and Marder IFVs from Germany, M113 variants from the USA and Belgium, and upgraded M109 self-propelled howitzers. They are also reportedly modifying the Army’s structure by adding armored brigades throughout their entire territory. Mobile forces need mobile protection, however – hence the current half-billion dollar request set…

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Barak launch
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Despite a development timeline measured in decades, India’s indigenous “Akash” and “Trishul” programs for surface to air missiles have failed to inspire full confidence. Trishul was eventually cancelled entirely, and Akash is now slated for limited deployment only. India still needed advanced SAMs to equip its navy and army, however, and decided to try to duplicate the success of the Russian partnership that had fielded the excellent PJ-10 BrahMos supersonic cruise missile.

In February 2006, therefore, Israel and India signed a joint development agreement to create a new Barak-NG medium shipborne air defense missile, as an evolution of the Barak-1 system in service with both navies. In July 2007 the counterpart MR-SAM project began moving forward, aiming to develop a medium range SAM for use with India’s land forces. Both missiles would now be called Barak-8. In between, “India to Buy Israeli “SPYDER” Mobile Air Defense System” covered India’s move to begin buying mobile, short-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems for its army, based on the Python and Derby air-to-air missiles in service with its air force and naval aircraft.

These projects offer India a way forward to address its critical air defense weaknesses, and upgrade “protection of vital and strategic ground assets and area air defence.” In Israel, the Barak-8 is slated to equip its next-generation frigates, and may find its way to other roles. Beyond those 2 countries, export prospects beckon for a missile that may offer a value-priced alternative to the popular Standard-2 and Aster-15. This DID FOCUS article will cover the Barak-8 pograms in India, Israel, and beyond. The latest development involves additional reports that a firm $1+ billion contract has been signed…

• The Barak, and Barak-8 [NEW]
• India’s Barak Programs [updated]
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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Reaper, ready…
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The MQ-9 Reaper UAV, once called “Predator B,” is somewhat similar to the famous Predator. Until you look at the tail. Or its size. Or its weapons. It’s called “Reaper” for a reason – while it packs the same surveillance gear, it’s much more of a hunter-killer design. The Reaper is 36 feet long, with a 66 foot wingspan. Its maximum gross takeoff weight is a whopping 10,500 pounds, carrying up to 4,000 pounds of fuel, 850 pounds of internal/ sensor payload, and another 3,000 pounds on its wings. Its 6 pylons can carry GPS-guided JDAM family bombs, Paveway laser-guided bombs, Sidewinder missiles for air-air self defense, and other MIL STD 1760 compatible weapons, in addition to the Hellfire anti-armor missiles carried by the Predator. When loaded up with laser-guided Hydra rockets, the Reaper becomes the equivalent of a close air support fighter with less situational awareness, lower speed, and less survivability if seen – but much, much longer on-station time. Some have called it the first fielded Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV).

DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. The Reaper UCAV will play a significant role in the future USAF, even though capability set makes the MQ-9 considerably more expensive than MQ-1 Predators, whose price benefits from less advanced design and volume production orders. Given these high-end capabilities, and expenses, one might not have expected the MQ-9 to enjoy better export success than its famous cousin. Nevertheless, that’s what appears to be happening. MQ-9 operators currently include the USA and Britain, who have both used it in hunter-killer mode, and Italy. Other countries are also expressing interest, and international deployments are accelerating.

As a convenience to readers, new material is indicated in green type. The latest additions include a request from Italy, which would increase its order limit…

• The MQ-9 Reaper, and its Little Brothers
• Contracts & Key Events, 2005 SDD – Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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RAAF C-130J-30, flares
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The C-130 Hercules remains one of the longest-running aerospace manufacturing programs of all time. Since 1956, over 40 models and variants have served as the tactical airlift backbone for over 50 nations. The C-130J looks similar, but the number of changes almost make it a new aircraft. Those changes also created issues; the program has been the focus of a great deal of controversy in America – and even of a full program restructuring in 2006. Some early concerns from critics were put to rest when the C-130J demonstrated in-theater performance on the front lines that represented a major improvement over its C-130E/H predecessors. A valid follow-on question might be: does it break the bottleneck limitations that have hobbled a number of multi-billion dollar US Army vehicle development programs?

C-130J customers now include Australia, Britain, Canada, Denmark, India, Iraq, Italy, Norway, Oman, Qatar, and the United States. American C-130J purchases are taking place under both annual budgets and supplemental wartime funding, in order to replace tactical transport and special forces fleets that are flying old aircraft and in dire need of major repairs.

This DID FOCUS Article describes the C-130J, examines the bottleneck issue, covers global developments for the C-130J program, and looks at present and emerging competitors. The latest update includes a USAF order for Rolls-Royce to supply AE 2100D3 spare engine parts to power the C-130J…

• The (Private) Labors of Hercules: the C-130J
• The C-130J and the 20-ton Bottleneck
• Turbulent Flight: The C-130J Program
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources, incl. emerging competitors & Special Operations requirements
  
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Swiss F-5Es
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The F-5E/F Tiger II was a follow-on upgrade to the wildly successful F-5 Freedom Fighter, a low-budget aircraft designed to capture the lower tier of the non-Soviet global fighter market in the 1960s and 1970s. A number of countries still operate F-5s, but the airframes are very old. The Swiss bought 72 F-5E/F fighters in 1976, and another 38 in 1981, for a total of 110 (98 single-seat F5E, 12 two-seat F-5F). Switzerland currently flies about 54 F-5s; A squadron of 12 were leased to Austria while they await their Eurofighters, and 44 others were sold to the US Navy.

While F-5 owners like Brazil, Chile, Thailand, et . al. have opted for comprehensive refurbishment and upgrades, Switzerland is looking to replace 3 of its 5 Tiger II squadrons with new aircraft under its Tiger-Teilersatz TTE program. The new fighters will partner with the 3 squadrons of upgraded F/A-18C/D Hornets that make up the rest of its fighter fleet. An initial evaluation RFP has been issued to 4 contenders, but Boeing’s withdrawal means the selection is now down to Sweden’s Gripen, France’s Rafale, or EADS’ Eurofighter.

Testing is now complete, and armasuisse has issued its 2nd and final RFP. Left-wing opponents of any military in Switzerland are working hard to derail the purchase, and like the 1993 F/A-18 sale, this purchase will face a national referendum. If it isn’t canceled by the Cabinet first. So far, however, the program is moving forward, and final bids have now been submitted…

• The Competition [updated]
• The Competitors
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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SM-2 Launch w. AEGIS
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Variants of the SM-2 Standard missile are the USA’s primary fleet defense anti-air weapon, and serve with 13 navies worldwide. The most common variant is the RIM-66K-L/ SM-2 Standard Block IIIB, which entered service in 1998. The Standard family extends far beyond the SM-2 missile, however; several nations still use the SM-1, the SM-3 is rising to international prominence as a missile defense weapon, and the SM-6 program is on track to supplement the SM-2. These missiles are designed to be paired with the AEGIS radar and combat system, but can be employed independently by ships with older or newer radar systems.

DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. This article covers each variant in the Standard missile family, several years worth of American and Foreign Military Sales requests and contracts, key events, and the budgetary and technical background that can help put all that in context. New material is indicated in green type.

The latest addition includes a $47.8 million order for engineering and technical services to support the Standard Missile program…

• The Standard Missile Naval Defense Family: Missiles and Plans (SM-1 to SM-6)
• The Standard Missile Naval Defense Family: Budgets [updated]
• The Standard Missile Naval Defense Family: US Contracts & Events
  • FY 2010 [updated]
  • FY 2009
  • FY 2008
  • FY 2007
  • FY 2006
• The Standard Missile Naval Defense Family: Exports & Related Key Events
  • CY 2009 [updated]
  • CY 2008
  • CY 2007
  • CY 2006
  • CY 2005
• Additional Readings
  
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F-16B & X-35
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In an exclusive June 2006 interview, Israeli Air Force (IAF) chief procurement officer Brigadier-General Ze’ev Snir told Israel’s Globes publication that the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter was a key part of their IAF recapitalization plans, and that Israel intends to buy over 100 of the fighters to replace their F-16s over time. A 100-plane deal would have cost at least $5 billion under Israel’s original estimates, and would involve the F-35A conventional take-off Air Force version. Snir added that:

“The IAF would be happy to equip itself with 24 F-22s but the problem at this time is the US refusal to sell the plane, and its $200 million price tag.”

Unfortunately, Israel’s September 2008 request for its first 75 F-35s would end up costing them an estimated $15 billion – or about $200 million per plane. All in return for a fighter with poorer air-to-air performance than the F-22, and less stealth. The necessary contract must deal with that sticker shock, and with issues like the incorporation of Israeli technologies, before it can be signed. The latest news is that Israel may forego its own weapons and technologies, in order to curtail a $130 million price tag – and may decide to delay its F-35 purchase by 2 years…

• F-35 for Israel: Key Issues
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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