Key testimony to US Congress looks at overall balance across the Straits, legislators push for F-16s. (Feb 25/10)

Despite China’s military buildup across the strait, key weapons sales of P-3 maritime patrol aircraft, Patriot PAC-3 missiles, and diesel-electric submarines to Taiwan have been sabotaged by Taiwanese politics for years – in some cases, since 1997. The KMT party’s flip-flops and determined stalling tactics eventually created a crisis in US-Taiwan relations, which finally soured to the point that the USA refused a Taiwanese request for F-16C/D aircraft.

That seems to have brought things to a head. Most of the budget and political issues were eventually sorted out, and after a long delay, some major elements of Taiwan’s requested modernization program appear to be moving forward: P-3 maritime patrol aircraft, Patriot missile upgrades; and requests for AH-64D attack helicopters, UH-60M Black Hawks helicopters, E-2 AWACS planes, minehunting ships, and missiles for defense against aircraft, ships, and tanks. These are must-have capabilities when facing a Chinese government that has vowed to take the country by force, and which is building an extensive submarine fleet, a large array of ballistic missiles, an upgraded fighter fleet, and a number of amphibious-capable divisions. Chinese pressure continues to stall some of Taiwan’s important upgrades, including diesel-electric submarines and American fighter jets. Meanwhile, other purchases continue…

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C-17 over Hawaii
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Q3 payment raises FY 2010 total over $800 million. (March 18/10)

While the C-17 may have limited production time in its future, the C-17 Globemaster Sustainment Partnership is likely to continue for many years. The rising cost of maintenance has made it a greater concern to the world’s militaries, and new contract vehicles are reflecting that. Under the C-17 Globemaster III Sustainment Partnership, Boeing has total system support responsibility for the big transport aircraft, including materiel management and depot maintenance, for fleets around the world. The goal is total aircraft sustainment support under a single contract, in order to achieve improvements in mission readiness, while reducing operating and support costs. The initial contract had an estimated total value of $4.9 billion, which is likely to grow as Boeing’s customer base grows in Australia (4), Britain (6), Canada (4), Qatar (2), and NATO (3).

This is DID’s in-depth, updated FOCUS Article covering this major international program, offering key statistics for the aircraft, explaining the GSP’s components, and detailing its contracts.

• The C-17 Globemaster III
• The C-17 Globemaster III Sustainment Partnership
• The C-17 PE/PI Program
• Contracts and Key Events, FY 2004-Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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Saudi F-15, refueling
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Sniper pods ordered. (March 16/10)

On Nov 14/06, a US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notice hinted that Saudi Arabia was about to become the first F-15 operator to switch its Pratt & Whitney F100 jet engines for General Electric’s F110, as part of a wider-ranging upgrade program for Saudi Arabia’s multi-role air superiority and strike fighters.

There’s often a long delay between the DSCA announcement and a contract, let alone delivery. Saudi Arabia’s F-15S variant did become the first fleet to perform a re-engining switch, however, and other upgrades are also underway.

• The Saudi F-15S, and its Upgrades [NEW]
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
  
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Adm. Gorshkov: Before.
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New Gorshkov, MiG-29K contracts; first MiG-29Ks inducted. (March 11/10)

This free-to-view DID Spotlight article offers an in-depth look at India’s troubled attempt to convert and field a full-size aircraft carrier, before time and wear force it to retire its existing naval aviation and ships.

Right now, there are 2 major concerns in India. One is slipping timelines. The other concern involves Vikramaditya’s 3-fold cost increase, including worries that Russia will raise it rates yet again once India is deeper into the commitment trap. The carrier purchase has now become the subject of high level diplomacy, involving a shipyard that can’t even execute on commercial contracts. An agreement in principle reportedly exists, but negotiations that began in 2007 have yet to lead to a revised contract. Recent Russian demands continued to raise the price, even as deliveries of India’s new MiG-29K naval fighters got underway. March 12/10 should see the signing of a new contract, which India hopes the Russians will honor.

• Waiting for Gorshkov – A History
• Gorshkov-Vikramaditya: Aerial Complement
• INS Vikramaditya: Updates & Contracts [updated]
• Appendix A: Additional Readings – Equipment Profiles
• Appendix B: Additional Readings – Related Developments
  
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F-16B & X-35
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Expected March 2010 deal faces 1+ year delay; other Mid-east export issues come up. (March 11/10)

In an exclusive June 2006 interview, Israeli Air Force (IAF) chief procurement officer Brigadier-General Ze’ev Snir told Israel’s Globes publication that the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter was a key part of their IAF recapitalization plans, and that Israel intends to buy over 100 of the fighters to replace their F-16s over time. Since then, however, the expected cost of that purchase has more than doubled.

The necessary contract must deal with that sticker shock, with issues like the incorporation of Israeli technologies, and with slips in the internal F-35 program before it can be signed. Israel is even contemplating delaying its purchase, removing an important early adopter for the multi-national program…

• F-35 for Israel: Key Issues
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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RAAF C-130J-30, flares
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FY 2009-2011 budget updates, Australian modernization, Tunisia buys 2. (March 2/10)

The C-130 Hercules remains one of the longest-running aerospace manufacturing programs of all time. Since 1956, over 40 models and variants have served as the tactical airlift backbone for over 50 nations. The C-130J looks similar, but the number of changes almost make it a new aircraft. Those changes also created issues; the program has been the focus of a great deal of controversy in America – and even of a full program restructuring in 2006. Some early concerns from critics were put to rest when the C-130J demonstrated in-theater performance on the front lines that represented a major improvement over its C-130E/H predecessors. A valid follow-on question might be: does it break the bottleneck limitations that have hobbled a number of multi-billion dollar US Army vehicle development programs?

C-130J customers now include Australia, Britain, Canada, Denmark, India, Iraq, Italy, Norway, Oman, Qatar, Tunisia, and the United States. American C-130J purchases are taking place under both annual budgets and supplemental wartime funding, in order to replace tactical transport and special forces fleets that are flying old aircraft and in dire need of major repairs. This DID FOCUS Article describes the C-130J, examines the bottleneck issue, covers global developments for the C-130J program, and looks at present and emerging competitors.

• The (Private) Labors of Hercules: the C-130J
• The C-130J and the 20-ton Bottleneck
• Turbulent Flight: The C-130J Program
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources, incl. emerging competitors & Special Operations requirements
  
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Egyptian Air Force F-16D
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$213 million for long lead time items. (March 2/10)

The Egyptian government wants to buy 24 F-16C/D Block 50/52 aircraft, associated parts, weapons, and equipment to modernize its air force. The October 2009 request, made through the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) to Congress, could be worth as much as $3.2 billion to Lockheed Martin and the other contractors involved.

The Egyptian Air Force is the 4th largest F-16 operator in the world, mustering about 195 aircraft of 220 ordered. Their overall fighter fleet is a mix of high-end F-16s and Mirage 2000s, low-end Chinese F-7s (MiG-21 copy) bought from the Chinese, a few F-4 Phantom II jets, and upgraded but very aged Soviet MiG-21s and French Mirage 5s. The formal request comes a few months after the Obama administration conveyed to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak its support for Egypt’s long-standing request to buy the Block 50/52 aircraft…

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SM-2 Launch w. AEGIS
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Multinational SM-2 order, mostly for South Korea. (Feb 26/10)

Variants of the SM-2 Standard missile are the USA’s primary fleet defense anti-air weapon, and serve with 13 navies worldwide. The most common variant is the RIM-66K-L/ SM-2 Standard Block IIIB, which entered service in 1998. The Standard family extends far beyond the SM-2 missile, however; several nations still use the SM-1, the SM-3 is rising to international prominence as a missile defense weapon, and the SM-6 program is on track to supplement the SM-2. These missiles are designed to be paired with the AEGIS radar and combat system, but can be employed independently by ships with older or newer radar systems.

DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. This article covers each variant in the Standard missile family, several years worth of American and Foreign Military Sales requests and contracts, key events, and the budgetary and technical background that can help put all that in context.

• The Standard Missile Naval Defense Family: Missiles and Plans (SM-1 to SM-6)
• The Standard Missile Naval Defense Family: Budgets
• The Standard Missile Naval Defense Family: US Contracts & Events
  • FY 2010
  • FY 2009
  • FY 2008
  • FY 2007
  • FY 2006
• The Standard Missile Naval Defense Family: Exports & Related Key Events
  • CY 2010 [updated]
  • CY 2009
  • CY 2008
  • CY 2007
  • CY 2006
  • CY 2005
• Additional Readings [updated]
  
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Polish officer at Bagram
memorial, Afghanistan
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Contracts at last for UAVs, Mi-17 helicopters. (Feb 25/10)

In August 2009, Polish Land Forces Commander Lt. Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak dropped a different kind of bomb when he resigned, after accusing defense bureaucrats in Warsaw of “serious incompetence” that was partly responsible for the deaths of Polish soldiers. As one might predict, those comments touched off promises of major equipment purchases, along with a political firestorm.

So, what has happened since?

• The General’s Broadside
• Aftermath: Contracts & Key Events [NEW]
  
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Patriot PAC-2
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Maintenance contract for UAE’s Hawk missiles. (Feb 24/10)

A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the infamous NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1]. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create havoc in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

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