FS Mistral
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France mulls approval of 3 more Mistral LHDs for Russia, amidst political pressure from Russia over Georgia, and concern by French allies. (Feb 8/10)

In August 2009, Russian media reported that their country was planning to take a radical step, and buy a French Mistral class amphibious assault ship (LHD) by the end of 2009. The outlet quoted the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Gen. Nikolai Makarov, who said that: “We are negotiating the purchase of one ship at present, and later planning to acquire 3-4 ships [of the same class] to be jointly built in Russia.” A Russian order would represent a sea change on several fronts – and also the extension of some trends.

France currently operates 2 Mistral class LHDs, and recently ordered a 3rd using economic stimulus funds. Unlike some other LHD designs, the Mistral class cannot operate fixed wing aircraft. Even so, it’s an important tool of power projection. Mistral class ships can carry and deploy up to 16 helicopters, including attack helicopters like France’s Tiger or Russia’s Ka-50/52. Its main punch revolves around its 4 landing barges or 2 medium hovercraft, however, which deliver armored vehicles, tanks, and soldiers to shore. The vessel is equipped with a 69-bed hospital, and could be used as an amphibious command ship.

• Mistral’s Meaning: A Method to their Madness?
• The Mistral Class BPC/LHDs
• Updates and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
  
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Taiwan orders up to 20 medium helicopters, and may be headed for a modernized FFG-7 program. (Feb 3/10)

Despite China’s military buildup across the strait, key weapons sales of P-3 maritime patrol aircraft, Patriot PAC-3 missiles, and diesel-electric submarines to Taiwan have been sabotaged by Taiwanese politics for years – in some cases, since 1997. The KMT party’s flip-flops and determined stalling tactics eventually created a crisis in US-Taiwan relations, which finally soured to the point that the USA refused a Taiwanese request for F-16C/D aircraft.

That seems to have brought things to a head. Most of the budget and political issues were eventually sorted out, and after a long delay, some major elements of Taiwan’s requested modernization program appear to be moving forward: P-3 maritime patrol aircraft, Patriot missile upgrades; and requests for AH-64D attack helicopters, UH-60M Black Hawks helicopters, E-2 AWACS planes, minehunting ships, and missiles for defense against aircraft, ships, and tanks. These are must-have capabilities when facing a Chinese government that has vowed to take the country by force, and which is building an extensive submarine fleet, a large array of ballistic missiles, an upgraded fighter fleet, and a number of amphibious-capable divisions.

Chinese pressure continues to stall some of Taiwan’s important upgrades, including diesel-electric submarines and American fighter jets. Meanwhile, other purchases continue…

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Reaper, ready…
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Test variants for USAF, USCG; Gorgon stare pod; new Reaper weapon?; Comlink compromise; MQ-9 shootdown. (Feb 2/10)

The MQ-9 Reaper UAV, once called “Predator B,” is somewhat similar to the famous Predator. Until you look at the tail. Or its size. Or its weapons. It’s called “Reaper” for a reason – while it packs the same surveillance gear, it’s much more of a hunter-killer design. Some have called it the first fielded Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV).

DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. The Reaper UCAV will play a significant role in the future USAF, even though its capability set makes the MQ-9 considerably more expensive than MQ-1 Predators, whose price benefits from less advanced design and volume production orders. Given these high-end capabilities, and expenses, one might not have expected the MQ-9 to enjoy better export success than its famous cousin. Nevertheless, that’s what appears to be happening. MQ-9 operators currently include the USA and Britain, who have both used it in hunter-killer mode, and Italy. Other countries are also expressing interest, and international deployments are accelerating.

• The MQ-9 Reaper, and its Little Brothers
• Contracts & Key Events, 2005 SDD – Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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E-737 Wedgetail
over New South Wales
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Successful C2 test, 5-year support contract for Thales. (Feb 2/10)

The island continent of Australia faces a number of unique security challenges that stem from its geography. The continent may be separated from its neighbors by large expanses of ocean, but it also resides within a potential arc of instability, and has a number of important offshore resource sites to protect. Full awareness of what is going on around them, and the ability to push that awareness well offshore, are critical security requirements.

“Project Wedgetail” had 3 finalists, and the winner was a new variant of Boeing’s 737-700, fitted with an MESA (multirole electronically scanned array) radar from Northrop Grumman. That radar exchanges the traditional AWACS rotating dome for the E-737’s stationary antenna and its “top hat” look. That design, and the project as a whole, have run into severe turbulence, creating problems for Boeing earnings, the ADF, and other export orders for the type. DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. This one covers contracts, events, and key milestones within Australia’s E-737 program, from inception to the current day.

• Project Wedgetail: Program and Participants
• Contracts & Key Events, 1997 – Present [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
  
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Dassault Rafale
(click for cutaway view)

Performance-based support contract for Thales. (Feb 2/10)

Will Dassault’s fighter become a fashionably late fighter platform that builds on its parent company’s past successes – or just “the late Rafale”? It all began as a 1985 break-away from the multinational consortium that went on to create EADS’ Eurofighter. The French needed a lighter aircraft that was suitable for carrier use, and were reportedly unwilling to cede design authority over the project. As is so often true of French defense procurement policy, the choice came down to one of paying additional costs for full independence and exact needs, or losing key industrial capabilities by partnering or buying abroad. France has generally opted for expensive but independent defense choices, and the Rafale was no exception.

Those costs, and associated delays triggered by the end of the Cold War and reduced funding, proved to be very costly indeed. Unlike previous French fighters, which relied on exports to lower their costs and keep production lines humming, the Rafale has yet to secure a single export contract – in part because versions fielded to date have impaired capabilities in key roles. The Rafale may, at last, be ready to be what its vendors say: a true omnirole aircraft, ready for prime time on the global export stage. The question is whether that will come in time. Rivals like EADS’ Eurofighter, Russia’s Su-27/30 family, and the American “teen series” of F-15/16/18 variants are all well established. Meanwhile, Saab’s versatile and cheaper JAS-39 Gripen remains a stubborn foe in key export competitions, and the multinational F-35 juggernaut is bearing down on it.

• Dassault’s Rafale: Variants
• Dassault’s Rafale: Program
• Contracts and Key Events, 2009-Present [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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Egyptian Air Force F-16D
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Egypt chooses its engines. (Feb 1/10)

The Egyptian government wants to buy 24 F-16C/D Block 50/52 aircraft, associated parts, weapons, and equipment to modernize its air force. The October 2009 request, made through the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) to Congress, could be worth as much as $3.2 billion to Lockheed Martin and the other contractors involved.

The Egyptian Air Force is the 4th largest F-16 operator in the world, mustering about 195 aircraft of 220 ordered. Their overall fighter fleet is a mix of high-end F-16s and Mirage 2000s, low-end Chinese F-7s (MiG-21 copy) bought from the Chinese, a few F-4 Phantom II jets, and upgraded but very aged Soviet MiG-21s and French Mirage 5s. The formal request comes a few months after the Obama administration conveyed to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak its support for Egypt’s long-standing request to buy the Block 50/52 aircraft…

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• Taiwan prepares to order a $6.45 billion weapons package, sparks predictable diplomatic huffing.

• The Pentagon plans to replace the official in charge of the F-35 JSF program and withhold $614 million in performance fees from Lockheed Martin for failing to meet key goals. At the same time Pratt & Whitney delivered the 1st F135 production engine for the F-35 aircraft.

• Sikorsky is investing $1 billion to develop an unmanned Black Hawk helicopter, which it hopes to have ready by 2015.

• USS George H.W. Bush [CVN 77] redelivered; its strike group will soon have the first female CSG commander in US Navy history.

• Shares of major US defense companies gained in trading following the unveiling of the Obama administration’s FY 2011 defense budget that would increase defense spending by 3.4%.

• The US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) had another setback in its effort to build a ballistic missile defense, when its Sea-Based X-band radar failed to track a target missile during a test at the Kwajalein Atoll in the South Pacific. MDA is also looking for a supplier for its target missiles.

• Prime contractor CSC gets $261 million in orders to provide IT and logistics services under the US Army’s Logistics Modernization Program.

• USAF orders more of Lockheed’s Sniper ATP surveillance & targeting pods.

• Rolls Royce scores a $146 million order to provide another year of C-130J fleet engine support.

• Singapore unveils its new G550 AWACS aircraft.

• Raytheon/Boeing’s JAGM missile contender finishes captive test flights.

• Raytheon BBN announces a successful ad-hoc networking experiment under DARPA’s WNaN effort.

RAAF C-130J-30, flares
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$146 million for another year of USAF fleet engine support. (Feb 1/10)

The C-130 Hercules remains one of the longest-running aerospace manufacturing programs of all time. Since 1956, over 40 models and variants have served as the tactical airlift backbone for over 50 nations. The C-130J looks similar, but the number of changes almost make it a new aircraft. Those changes also created issues; the program has been the focus of a great deal of controversy in America – and even of a full program restructuring in 2006. Some early concerns from critics were put to rest when the C-130J demonstrated in-theater performance on the front lines that represented a major improvement over its C-130E/H predecessors. A valid follow-on question might be: does it break the bottleneck limitations that have hobbled a number of multi-billion dollar US Army vehicle development programs?

C-130J customers now include Australia, Britain, Canada, Denmark, India, Iraq, Italy, Norway, Oman, Qatar, and the United States. American C-130J purchases are taking place under both annual budgets and supplemental wartime funding, in order to replace tactical transport and special forces fleets that are flying old aircraft and in dire need of major repairs. This DID FOCUS Article describes the C-130J, examines the bottleneck issue, covers global developments for the C-130J program, and looks at present and emerging competitors.

• The (Private) Labors of Hercules: the C-130J
• The C-130J and the 20-ton Bottleneck
• Turbulent Flight: The C-130J Program
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources, incl. emerging competitors & Special Operations requirements
  
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C-17 over Hawaii
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The program will be restructured after 2012. (Jan 29/10)

While the C-17 may have limited production time in its future, the C-17 Globemaster Sustainment Partnership is likely to continue for many years. The rising cost of maintenance has made it a greater concern to the world’s militaries, and new contract vehicles are reflecting that. Under the C-17 Globemaster III Sustainment Partnership, Boeing has total system support responsibility for the big transport aircraft, including materiel management and depot maintenance, for fleets around the world. The goal is total aircraft sustainment support under a single contract, in order to achieve improvements in mission readiness, while reducing operating and support costs. The initial contract had an estimated total value of $4.9 billion, which is likely to grow as Boeing’s customer base grows in Australia (4), Britain (6), Canada (4), Qatar (2), and NATO (3).

This is DID’s in-depth, updated FOCUS Article covering this major international program, offering key statistics for the aircraft, explaining the GSP’s components, and detailing its contracts.

• The C-17 Globemaster III
• The C-17 Globemaster III Sustainment Partnership
• The C-17 PE/PI Program
• Contracts and Key Events, FY 2004-Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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Patriot PAC-2
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Nearly $45 million in PAC-3 upgrades for UAE. (Jan 26/10)

A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the infamous NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1]. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create havoc in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

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