Galileo concept

2nd large contract series; EC: We want another EUR 7 billion; New build site opened; 1st operational launch; Major article updates. (Feb 2/12)

The USA’s Global Positioning System service remains free, but the European Union is spending billions to create an alternative under their own control. In addition to civilian GPS (the Open Service), services to be offered include a Safety of Life Service (SoL) for civil aviation and search and rescue, a paid Commercial Service with accuracy greater than 1 meter, plus a Public Regulated Service (PRS) for use by security authorities and governments. PRS/SoL aims to offer Open Service quality, with added robustness against jamming and the reliable detection of problems within 10 seconds.

Organizational issues and shortfalls in expected progress pushed the “Galileo” project back from its originally intended operational date of 2007 to 2014/15. After a public-private partnership model failed, the EU gained initial-stage approval for its plan to finance the program with tax dollars instead of the expected private investments. Political issues were overcome in 2007 by raiding other EU accounts for the billions required, but by 2011, it became clear that requests for billions more in public funds were on the way. Meanwhile, doubts persist in several quarters about Galileo’s touted economic model. Security concerns regarding China’s involvement, and its Beidou-2/Compass project overlap, have been equally persistent. On a European political level, however, Galileo is now irreversible.

This article offers background, players, developments, contracts, and in-depth research links for Galileo, as well as linked EU programs like GIOVE and EGNOS:

• The Galileo Program
  • Galileo: The System [updated]
  • Galileo Elements [updated]
  • Galileo Structure & Costs [updated]
  • Galileo Timeline [NEW]
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
  • PNT alternatives
  • News & Views
  • The Security Dimension
    Continue Reading… »

• Full 2011 financial results: Textron saw growth at Bell, revenue decrease at Textron Systems. At $7.3B, Bell’s backlog has recovered from a reporting error announced by the company last quarter.

• Meanwhile General Dynamics generated $32.7B of revenue last year. It has potentially almost 3 years worth of revenue in backlog depending on how its indefinite quantity contracts pan out. Aerospace revenue grew but combat, marine and IT systems lost ground, translating into an almost flat topline for the prime contractor.

• Raytheon wrapped up 2011 with slightly lower revenue ($24.9B) but higher bookings ($25.2B) than the previous year. Its backlog rose by $700M to $35.3B though most of that growth is not appropriated yet.

• The RAND Arroyo Center is rather bullish on the potential for UAV logistics applications such as convoy overwatch and other surveillance tasks, but reminds decision makers that bandwidth is going to be critical. Note: the study doesn’t cover the use of UAS for Army resupply, separate research that General Dynamics was tasked with.

• According to the Guardian the British government is considering selling its RAF Norholt to possibly be converted into a satellite of the nearby Heathrow airport. Philip Hammond was Secretary of State for Transport before he replaced Liam Fox last October.

• The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) notes that defense budgets in Latin America have been growing faster than institutional transparency on policy, let alone on spending.

• BAE Systems and Caterpillar Inc. have signed a 20-year supply agreement to integrate the Cat CX family of transmissions into its HybriDrive parallel propulsion system, and use it to outfit and retrofit heavy trucks. It’s a civilian deal – but the same technologies can be used on military armored vehicles, and the civilian sector is pioneering this technology.

• The German Bundeswehr has a video covering the Boxer MRAV wheeled 8×8 APC’s 1st combat deployment to Afghanistan.

• The US Army is concerned about Facebook use. Yes, it can endanger lives, they say. People in the security community need to use it responsibly, and they have some tips.

• Is Indonesia buying used Dutch Leopard 2 tanks? Don’t ask Indonesia’s Parliament, they don’t know.

• Sikorsky announces 35 suppliers for its S-97 Raider compound helicopter, a scout and special forces design based on its X2 technology. It’s competing to be the US Army’s next armed scout helicopter, but an “OH-58F” upgrade remains the bettor’s pick.

• Greece’s budget problems don’t change the country’s military needs. Meeting those needs retains fairly broad support there, while making their creditors equally happy.

• The latest US GAO reports on the DOD: how to increase competition in procurements that use the national security exception; Arctic capabilities. Note that the GAO recently redesigned their website for the better, these report pages are significantly more legible than in the past.

• Consultancy ICF International studied the potential for solar energy generation on DOD bases in California and Nevada and found that there’s plenty of usable space suitable for solar development, to the tune of 25,000 acres (10,000 hectares). Edwards AFB and Fort Irwin are the 2 sites with the largest potential. PDF report.

• The US National Center for Telehealth and Technology (T2) has launched a LinkedIn group for military mental health professionals.

• At an August 2011 DISA event, VMWare’s CEO discussed cloud computing and its implications for security, among other things.

• A French Mirage and a Saudi F-15 collided during a joint exercise in Saudi Arabia. The 3 pilots ejected safely.

• Australia’s Defence Department reviews undertaken in the last couple of years have tallied up to more than $20M, according to the Advertiser.

T-50 Golden Eagle

Iraqi, US, Israeli & Polish opportunities; ROKAF places 1st FA-50 order. (Jan 4/12)

Korea’s defense industry is advancing on all fronts these days. On the armored vehicle front, vehicles like the XK2 tank and K9/K10 self propelled howitzer are beginning to win export orders, and its XK-21/KNIFV amphibious infantry fighting vehicle may not be too far behind. All fill key market niches, promising performance at a comparatively inexpensive price. Its shipbuilding industry, one of the world’s busiest, is beginning to turn out LHDs, and December 2008 saw its first-of-class KDX-III AEGIS destroyer accepted into service on time and on budget. Now its aerospace industry is in flight abroad with the already-exported KT-1 trainer. Not to mention a clever entry into an incipient market.

Enter the T-50 Golden Eagle family, which offers a supersonic high-end trainer and light fighter aircraft at an attractive price. The aircraft is hitting the international market just as many of the world’s jet training fleets are reaching ages of 30 years or more, and high-end fighters are pricing themselves out of reach for many countries. The TA-50 LIFT variant and FA-50 lightweight fighter are especially attractive as lightweight export fighters, and the ROKAF’s own F-5E/F Tiger II and F-4 Phantom fighters are more than due for replacement. Now the key question for the platform is whether it can find corresponding export sales…

• T/F/A-50: The Program
• T/F/A-50: The Program [updated]
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
  Continue Reading… »

Brazilian Navy EC725

Manufacturing facility opened; 1st flight test; 1st 3 delivered and operating; 5-year support contract. (Jan 5/11)

Brazil’s “Project H-X BR” medium transport helicopter competition featured 3 established players: AgustaWestland’s EH101 has found success in Britain, Europe, and Japan, and was chosen as the base for the USA’s VH-71 Presidential helicopter before that program was canceled. Eurocopter’s EC725 Cougar is an updated version of the popular AS332/532 Super Puma, and has been ordered in limited quantities by the French and Mexican governments. An up-to-date version of Russia’s widely used Mi-17 was the 3rd contender; like the Super Puma, Mi-8 and Mi-17 helicopters are already in wide use within Latin America.

In truth, however, Eurocopter always had an edge. The Brazilian Army’s Aviacao do Exercito already uses the AS532/”HM-3” Super Puma, basing them in the Amazon at Manaus. Its Navy also uses Super Puma variants: AS332s and AS532s both serve in the Navy as the UH-14, flying from Brazil’s NAe Sao Paulo aircraft carrier, and from the southeastern base of Sao Pedro da Aldeia in support of Brazil’s Marines. Now, Eurocopter’s offering will become Brazil’s medium-lift helicopter across all services… thanks to a new contract.

• The Cougars and the Opportunities [updated]
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  Continue Reading… »

Patriot PAC-2

UAE closes $3.48 billion THAAD missile deal. (Dec 31/11)

It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Even though Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy, missile and nuclear proliferation is producing reactions. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to responses aimed at reducing that risk. That’s why arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities.

Gulf states recognize that even a lucky conventional missile could wreak havoc if it hit key oil-related infrastructure, or damaged the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence. The spread of nuclear weapons would change the calculus completely. A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary, PDF] believed that Iran’s nuclear program had stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel, were more skeptical. By 2010, that skepticism had spread to US intelligence, which repudiated an assessment that seems set to join the infamous 1962 NIE of no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1].

The Gulf states’ response to these developments covers a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

Guam

$90M for base operations; McCain discusses realignment plans. (Dec 19/11)

Past base improvement efforts and other contracts related to the USA’s pacific territory of Guam include construction of an RQ-4 Global Hawk UAV complex for the Pacific Rim, and extensive base improvements/ expansion for Guam’s airfield and harbor. This article will shine a spotlight on contracts related to that territory from the beginning of FY 2007 onward. Military.com offers a broader article detailing the build up; it is useful as a frame for activities to date, and also as a context reference for our ongoing coverage (hyperlink below added to enhance context):

“The 2006 agreement between the United States and Japan to shift 8,000 U.S. Marines from bases in Japan to the island of Guam by 2014 is likely to have more far-reaching implications than just a change of address for some units of the Marine Corps’ III Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF). The move is accelerating the return to prominence of Guam in the U.S. defense posture and fostering a higher level of cooperation among the U.S. armed forces in the Pacific region…. Congress authorized $193 million in military construction funds for Guam in the fiscal year 2007 National Defense Authorization Act, a $31 million increase over 2006 funding. “Guam is likely to see between $400 million and $1 billion in military construction in military construction each year for a period of six to 10 years,” [Guam’s representative in Congress, Madeleine Z. Bordallo] said.”

That has held true…

• It’s not just the pending US FY13 President Budget that won’t reflect sequestration, the 5-year Future Years Defense Program (FYDP) projection won’t either, based on an Office of Management and Budget (OMB) document seen by Bloomberg. OMB states this is still “pre-decisional material” though, but this matches our expectation that budgets made of a relatively flat DoD baseline and a reduced OCO (i.e. war spending) line item are the mostly likely outcome in the next few years. But because of that cloud of uncertainty some firms plan to increase the share of their revenue coming from civilian customers.

• The Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) sent a letter to US SecDef Leon Panetta to push back against the Pentagon’s attempt to shift more project risk on contractors. The latest F-35 contract negotiations are no doubt prominently in their mind.

• US Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) is using predictive modeling to “compare manpower to flight rate [and recommend] employee workloads and tracks daily activity to proactively identify bottlenecks or constraints” on the CH-53K program.

• The US DoD will host a public meeting in Washington DC on Jan. 12, 2012 on the use of open source software in its contracts. They want to assess risks such as potential copyright infringement liability or performance and warranty deficiencies that would leave contractors without recourse.

• Raytheon bought Pikewerks Corporation, the latest of a long string of acquisitions in the cybersecurity realm.

• SAIC’s Q3 shows a flat topline and an 8% revenue decrease in the defense sector because of “the termination of the U.S. Army Brigade Combat Team Modernization contract, the June 2011 completion and delivery of the CityTime system, and reduced activity on an infrastructure support services program for the Department of Defense (DoD).”

• India’s state-controlled shipyard modernizations are behind in their modernization, and that’s hurting a number of programs. The private sector might be able to help, if India lets it.

• A shortage of Eurofighters for training & certification exercises is delaying the handover of Britain’s 1st A330 Voyager aerial tanker.

• The UK’s Department for Transport issues “Interim guidance to UK flagged shipping on the use of armed guards to defend against the threat of piracy in exceptional circumstances”. As armed guards continue to work, official resistance continues to weaken.

• 2011 in review as seen by Australian Minister for Defence Materiel Jason Clare.

New dawn?

How available are the RAF’s Typhoons? (Dec 6/11)

Implementation of Britain’s “future contracting for availability” approach of paying for machines in service, rather than parts and hours, generally involves a phased set of contracts and agreements. As each party’s understanding the risks and demands grow, the contract’s complexity and comprehensiveness grow as well, and the framework moves closer and closer to the desired goal of a full availability contract. “Britain Hammers Out Through-Life Support Framework for Tornado Fleet” described how this approach works on the ground, and talked about some of the keys to success. “UK’s “Contracting for Availability” Adds Hawks, Looks Ahead” mentioned the MoD’s March 2007 Long Term Partnering Agreement Foundation Contract with BAE Systems, which aims to place all British military aircraft under this kind of framework.

In late 2007, the UK’s Eurofighter Typhoon fleet entered Quick Reaction Alert service with the RAF, and began flying with new ground-attack capabilities. In step with its growing operational responsibilities, the UK MoD began moving toward an availability contracting maintenance model. A 5-year contract signed in March 2009 accelerated that shift, and the Typhoon Availability Service has begun operations. Recent reports have raised the question: how successful has it been?

The UAV market’s low cost of entry is spurring manufacturers around the world to enter, or re-enter, the military aircraft market as prime contractors. That’s also true in the USA, where former aviation powerhouses Northrop and Grumman have a stable of high-end UAVs; and Raytheon unveiled the Killer Bee 4, which will become a full-spectrum UAV family.

Even former fighter manufacturer General Dynamics stepped back in for a while, via a May 2009 partnership between Elbit Systems of America, LLC and General Dynamics Armament and Technical Products…