Walrus/HULA Heavy-Lift Blimps Rise, Fall… Rise?

Latest updates[?]: Updates from 2011, including the unveiling of Aeros' Project Pelican hybrid airship, NTSB vindication, reports on the growth of the airship industry, and a major GAO report.

Goo goo g’joob!
By John MacNeill

The Walrus heavy-transport blimp (“heavy” as in “1-2 million pounds”) was among a range of projects on the drawing board in the mid ’00s. It offered the potential for a faster and more versatile sealift substitute. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) funded phase 1 contracts, but things seemed to end in 2006. Yet the imperatives driving the need for Walrus, or even for a much smaller version of it, remain. Is the Walrus dead? And could it, or a Hybrid Ultra Large Aircraft (HULA) like it, rise again?

Recent presentations and initiatives in several US armed services, and some commercial ventures, indicate that it might.

The UK’s Watchkeeper ISTAR UAV

Watchkeeper 450

Britain has given the green light to the Watchkeeper Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Program. The initial August 2005 contract award to Thales UK’s joint venture was worth around GBP 700 million, and the program expected to create or sustain up to 2,100 high-quality manufacturing jobs in the UK. The Watchkeeper platform is based on Elbit Systems’ Hermes 450 UAV platform, which is serving as a contractor-operated interim solution on the front lines of battle.

Watchkeeper will be an important system, working as the likely medium-range mainstay within a complementary suite of manned (vid. ASTOR Sentinel R1) and unmanned (Buster, Desert Hawk, MQ-9 Reaper) aerial Intelligence Surveillance Target Acquisition Reconnaissance (ISTAR) systems. This will make it a core element of the UK Ministry of Defence’s Network-Enabled Capability strategy.

MTA: HAL and Irkut’s Joint Tactical Transport Project

Irkut concept

In late December 2006, Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) announced a $700-million joint venture (JV) agreement with Irkut Corporation of Russia for manufacturing 60-tonne multi-role transport aircraft (MRTA). Under this 50/50 arrangement with HAL, Ilyushin Design Bureau of Russia would design the MRTA (now MTA) and Irkut corporation of Russia will develop the aircraft, while series production would be taken up by the transport aircraft division of HAL at Kanpur. Irkut is a major investor (40% of project expenses), and will be the coordinator of the Russian side. For HAL, the move is part of an effort to forge new partnerships with global aviation majors for military and civil projects, with an eye on trebling their annual turnover to $3 billion by 2011.

The project has moved very slowly, even as competitors like the C-130J gained traction around the world, including in India, and future rivals like the KC-390 began picking up international partners. Now, a joint venture is supposed to get underway to build 145 aircraft for its initial customers in Russia and India.

ASTROS 2020 MLRS: Brazil Moves to Revive Avibras

Saudi ASTROS-II

At the end of August 2011, Brazil’s Ministerio da Defesa announced the beginning of a BRL 1.09 billion (about $685 million) project to update Avibras’ ASTROS (Artillery SaTuration ROcket System) multiple rocket launcher system to the ASTROS 2020 configuration. It will also develop a GPS-guided short-range rocket, and an AV-TM300 missile option that gives the new system a 300 km strike range. That level of reach would stand out in the global market, as it would rival the USA’s MLRS(Multiple Launch Rocket System)/ATACMS(Army Tactical Missile System) combination.

The initial funding amounts belie the importance of this program, on 2 levels. One source of importance is industrial. The other is ASTROS 2020′s status as an indicator, pointing the way toward the future spread of advanced precision strike technologies.

Gulf States Requesting ABM-Capable Systems

Patriot PAC-2

It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to responses aimed at reducing that risk. That’s why arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, but Iran’s ballistic missiles are another matter. They may be based on North Korean designs that lack accuracy, but the prospect of nuclear payloads is producing reactions.

Gulf states recognize that even a lucky conventional missile could wreak havoc if it hit key oil-related infrastructure, or damaged the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence. The spread of nuclear weapons would change the calculus completely. A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary, PDF] believed that Iran’s nuclear program had stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel, were more skeptical. By 2010, that skepticism had spread to US intelligence, which repudiated an assessment that seems set to join the infamous 1962 NIE of no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1].

The Gulf states’ response to these developments covers a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

JPADS: Making Precision Air-Drops A Reality

Strong’s JPADS,
Afghanistan

The dilemma for airdropping supplies has always been a stark one. High-altitude airdrops often go badly astray and become useless or even counter-productive. Low-level paradrops face significant dangers from enemy fire, and reduce delivery range. Can this dilemma be broken?

The US military believed that modern technologies could allow them to break the dilemma. The idea? Use the same GPS-guidance that enables precision strikes from JDAM bombs, coupled with software that acts as a flight control system for parachutes. JPADS (the Joint Precision Air-Drop System) has been combat-tested successfully in Iraq and Afghanistan, after moving beyond the test stage in the USA… and elsewhere.

ATTAC! Britain Hammers Out Through-Life Support Framework for Tornado Fleet

Tornado maintenance

Under ATTAC (Availability Transformation: Tornado Aircraft Contract), BAE will take over depot-level support and maintenance for the RAF’s Tornado fleet, with the responsibility of ensuring that enough of Britain’s Tornado GR4 strike aircraft and Tornado F3 interceptors are available to fly, rather than paying BAE for selling spare parts and maintenance hours.

This “future contracting for availability” approach is a major departure from traditional military and commercial practice; but it has been proven on a smaller scale within the UK’s Tornado fleet, and a number of other platforms are already operating under these types of contracts in Britain. BAE hopes to achieve the required availability levels using a combination of embedded diagnostics, rear-echelon repair process improvements, and what BAE executive and former Air Vice-Marshall Steve Nicoll referred to as the “Dirk Gently approach” to problem diagnosis and maintenance during the September 2006 TFD Group Conference. DID explains what Nicoll meant, and discusses the ATTAC contract and its follow-ons in more detail.

USA’s B-2 Bombers Leading the Way in Contracting for Availability

All together now…

Britain’s practice of “contracting for availability” for key equipment, rather than paying for spare parts and maintenance hours, may be its most significant defense procurement reform. In a world where older air, sea, and ground vehicle fleets are growing maintenance demands beyond countries’ available budgets, it’s an approach whose success could have global significance.

Across the pond, the USA is significantly behind in this area. Fortunately, they have not ignored the model entirely. Recent changes to the contracts covering their B-2 Spirit stealth bomber fleet demonstrate that some progress is being made, via a $9+ billion commitment from 1999-2014, and 2 parallel development programs that are changing key sub-systems.

Program Decision Makers: Defense Firms Providing Less Value

Defense top contractors compared

Defense Industry Daily surveyed more than 400 executives, asking them their opinions on the top defense contractors based both on their personal experiences and general impressions. The results show that defense contractors on average suffered worse ratings than were seen a year earlier. Some groups bore the brunt of that fall, particularly the information technology players.

US Military Gearing up on Guam

Guam

Past base improvement efforts and other contracts related to the USA’s pacific territory of Guam include construction of an RQ-4 Global Hawk UAV complex for the Pacific Rim, and extensive base improvements/ expansion for Guam’s airfield and harbor. This article will shine a spotlight on contracts related to that territory from the beginning of FY 2007 onward. Military.com offers a broader article detailing the build up; it is useful as a frame for activities to date, and also as a context reference for our ongoing coverage (hyperlink below added to enhance context):

“The 2006 agreement between the United States and Japan to shift 8,000 U.S. Marines from bases in Japan to the island of Guam by 2014 is likely to have more far-reaching implications than just a change of address for some units of the Marine Corps’ III Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF). The move is accelerating the return to prominence of Guam in the U.S. defense posture and fostering a higher level of cooperation among the U.S. armed forces in the Pacific region… Congress authorized $193 million in military construction funds for Guam in the fiscal year 2007 National Defense Authorization Act, a $31 million increase over 2006 funding. “Guam is likely to see between $400 million and $1 billion in military construction in military construction each year for a period of six to 10 years,” [Guam's representative in Congress, Madeleine Z. Bordallo] said.”

That has held true.