• Canadian Association of Defence and Security Industries issues its Report on Military Procurement; recommendations include 1 minister to oversee it, rather than the current 3.

• F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet fighter rumored to have beaten the F-35A and JAS-39DK Gripen NG in Denmark.

• Indian interceptor missile test misses a Prithvi II target missile. RIA Novosti | Indian Express | Jakarta Post

• How The Hurt Locker’s bomb suit works.

• US Army fast-tracking GPS-guided 120mm mortar round to Afghanistan.

• Venezuela receives first 6 of 18 Chinese K-8 Karakorum trainer/ light attack jets.

• EADS aims to sell 210 A400M military transport planes to US Department of Defense. Good luck with that.

• Qatar’s C-17s flying aid missions to Haiti, and Chile.

• Lockheed Martin delivers 1st Hawk-T Mk.2 simulator to the winning Ascent consortium, for future use with the UK’s new Hawk Mk.128 LIFT jet trainers.

• DARPA looks to tap quantum mechanics for military application.

• Frost & Sullivan: Aging land military equipment in Asia Pacific countries fuels growth in upgrades and replacements.

F-35A: incoming…
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Denmark picks Super Hornet?; New program head nominated; Landing gear contract; new flight decks wanted. (March 18/10)

The $300+ billion F-35 Joint Strike fighter may well be the largest single global defense program in history. This major multinational program is intended to produce an “affordably stealthy” multi-role fighter that will have 3 variants: the F-35A conventional version for the US Air Force et. al.; the F-35B Short Take-Off, Vertical Landing for the US Marines, British Royal Navy, et. al.; and the F-35C conventional carrier-launched version for the US Navy. The aircraft is named after Lockheed’s famous WW2 P-38 Lightning, and the Mach 2, stacked-engine English Electric (now BAE) Lightning jet. Lightning II system development partners included The USA & Britain (Tier 1), Italy and the Netherlands (Tier 2), and Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Turkey (Tier 3), with Singapore and Israel as “Security Cooperation Partners.” Now the challenge is agreeing on production phase membership and arrangements, to be followed by initial purchase commitments in 2009-2010.

This updated article has expanded to feature more detail regarding the F-35 program, including contracts, sub-contracts, and notable events and reports.

• The F-35 Family of Aircraft
• F-35 Program: Production Timelines & Structure
• F-35 Program: Controversies and Competitions
• F-35 Program: Events & Developments, CY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: System Development & Production Contracts, FY 2009-2010
• F-35 Program: Ancillary and Sub-contracts, FY 2009 – 2010 [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
• Video Viewing [NEW]
  
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Adm. Gorshkov: Before.
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New Gorshkov, MiG-29K contracts; first MiG-29Ks inducted. (March 11/10)

This free-to-view DID Spotlight article offers an in-depth look at India’s troubled attempt to convert and field a full-size aircraft carrier, before time and wear force it to retire its existing naval aviation and ships.

Right now, there are 2 major concerns in India. One is slipping timelines. The other concern involves Vikramaditya’s 3-fold cost increase, including worries that Russia will raise it rates yet again once India is deeper into the commitment trap. The carrier purchase has now become the subject of high level diplomacy, involving a shipyard that can’t even execute on commercial contracts. An agreement in principle reportedly exists, but negotiations that began in 2007 have yet to lead to a revised contract. Recent Russian demands continued to raise the price, even as deliveries of India’s new MiG-29K naval fighters got underway. March 12/10 should see the signing of a new contract, which India hopes the Russians will honor.

• Waiting for Gorshkov – A History
• Gorshkov-Vikramaditya: Aerial Complement
• INS Vikramaditya: Updates & Contracts [updated]
• Appendix A: Additional Readings – Equipment Profiles
• Appendix B: Additional Readings – Related Developments
  
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F-16B & X-35
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Expected March 2010 deal faces 1+ year delay; other Mid-east export issues come up. (March 11/10)

In an exclusive June 2006 interview, Israeli Air Force (IAF) chief procurement officer Brigadier-General Ze’ev Snir told Israel’s Globes publication that the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter was a key part of their IAF recapitalization plans, and that Israel intends to buy over 100 of the fighters to replace their F-16s over time. Since then, however, the expected cost of that purchase has more than doubled.

The necessary contract must deal with that sticker shock, with issues like the incorporation of Israeli technologies, and with slips in the internal F-35 program before it can be signed. Israel is even contemplating delaying its purchase, removing an important early adopter for the multi-national program…

• F-35 for Israel: Key Issues
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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IAF: Jaguar, Mirage 2000
SU-30K, MiG-27, MiG-21BiS
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Eurofighter’s engine offer, Swedish Gripen could face disqualification, India may speed up competition. (March 10/10)

“It’s the biggest fighter aircraft deal since the early 1990s,” said Boeing’s Mark Kronenberg, who runs the company’s Asia/Pacific business. India’s planned multi-billion dollar jet fighter buy is a contest between Dassault, Saab, MiG, American competitors and EADS’ Eurofighter.

What began as a lightweight fighter competition to replace India’s shrinking MiG-21 interceptor fleet appears to have bifurcated into 2 categories now, and 2 expense tiers. What’s going on? In a word, lots. The participants changed, India’s view of its own needs is changing, and the nature of the order may be changing as well – but with the release of the official $10 billion RFP, the competition can begin at last. DID offers an in-depth look at the MRCA/MMRCA competition’s changes, the RFP, and the competitors; and also offers an updated timeline regarding competitive moves since this article was published in March 2006…

• India’s MRCA (Multi-Role Combat Aircraft): Changes (i.e. “Continue reading…”)
• MMRCA: The RFP, Please…
• The Competitors: Analysis
• MMRCA: Updates and Developments [updated]
• Appendix A – MMRCA: The Naval Angle
• Appendix B – Dassault’s Move: Au Revoir, Mirage
• Additional Readings
  
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Upgraded F-5BR
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Paper reports bid pricing; government denies, says no decision yet. (March 9/10)

Could the words “Brazilian fighter” begin evoking images unrelated to the Gracies? A proposed 50% boost to Brazil’s defense budget could be on its way to accomplishing that, and more. While the Navy and Army are also in line for funds to replace broken-down equipment, the fighters will be a critical centerpiece of the Forca Aerea Brasileira’s efforts. The 36+ aircraft buys under consideration are mostly the same set of 4+ generation fighters that were considered last time: Boeing’s F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, Dassault’s Rafale, EADS’ Eurofighter, Lockheed Martin’s F-16 Block 60, Saab’s JAS-39 Gripen NG, and Sukhoi’s SU-35. The Gripen, Rafale, and Super Hornet were picked as finalists, and along the way, the Brazilian competition became much more important to at least one of that trio.

This free-to-view DID Spotlight article covers Brazil’s reborn F-X competition, adds its assessment of their offers’ relative strengths and weaknesses, and covers ongoing events. Before the competition was done, the Brazilian government anointed Dassault’s Rafale as its preferred choice. Then an Air Force evaluation appears to have ranked it dead last. Which has now led to an amended report…

• A Stirring Giant?
• F-X2: The Competition
• Analysis: F-X2, The Competitors
• Updates and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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Old as the hills…
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Boeing pares down its v2.0 KC-767 offering, as Round 1’s winner walks away. (March 8/10)

DID’s FOCUS articles cover major weapons acquisition programs – and no program is more important to the USAF than its current bid to replace its aerial tanker fleet. In January 2007, the big question was whether there would be a competition for the USA’s KC-X proposal, which will cover 175 production aircraft and 4 test platforms. The cost for this first phase alone is likely to reach $35+ billion spread over about 20 years, but America’s 40-50 year old aerial tanker fleet demands new planes. Otherwise, unpredictable age or fatigue issues, like the ones its F-15A-D fleet experienced in 2008, could ground its aerial tankers – and with them, a substantial slice of the USA’s total airpower. KC-Y and KC-Z contracts may follow in subsequent decades, in order to replace all 530 KC-135s/ Boeing 707s (195 active; ANG 251; Reserve 84) that were delivered until 1965, as well as the USAF’s 59 larger KC-10 tankers delivered from 1979-1987.

In the end, it was Team Boeing’s KC-767 Advanced (767-200 derivative) vs. the Team Northrop Grumman KC-30B (Airbus A330-200 derivative), both within the Pentagon and in the halls of Congress. Most observers correctly pointed out that all this lobbying was important, since the financial stakes guaranteed a huge political fight no matter which side won. A fight that ended up sinking, and restarting, the entire program. Recent additions revolve around the KC-X v2.0 draft RFP. The canceled competition is on again, with a decision expected by mid-2010. Except that it won’t be a competition…

• KC-X: The Story So Far
• KC-X RFP v2.0: The New Structure
• The Contenders and The Cargo Factor: KC-30B, KC-767… KC-777?
• KC-X: Teams & Locations
• KC-X RFP: Key Developments [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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A400M rollout, Seville
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Contract re-negotiation final, capabilities reduced, Spanish threat to Britain, EADS’ loss provisions, MSN1 flies to France, Visions of American sales. (March 15/10)

Airbus’ A400M is a EUR 20+ billion program that aims to repeat Airbus’ civilian successes in the full size military transport market. A series of smart design decisions were made around capacity (35-37 tonnes/ 38-40 US tons, large enough for survivable armored vehicles), extensive use of modern materials, multi-role capability as a refueling tanker, and a multinational industrial program; all of which leave the aircraft well positioned to take overall market share from Lockheed Martin’s C-130 Hercules. If the USA’s C-17 is allowed to go out of production, the A400M would also have a strong position in the strategic transport market, with only Russian IL-76 and AN-124 aircraft as competition. To date, 184 orders have been placed by Germany (60), France (50), Spain (27), Britain (25), Turkey (10), South Africa (8), Belgium (7), Malaysia (4), and Luxembourg (1); and Chile has expressed an unfinalized interest in 3 planes.

EADS firm’s biggest issue, by far, has been funding for a project that is more than EUR 7 billion over budget. The next biggest issue was timing, as A400M delivery penalties and Lockheed Martin’s strong push for its serving C-130J Super Hercules cast a pall over the A400M’s potential future. The entire project has been under moratorium for over a year as all parties decided what to do. Cancellation was not a realistic contractual option for most customers, but late deliveries could be refused, giving both Airbus and its customers negotiating leverage. This DID Spotlight article covers the latest developments, as the A400M project slides toward a new agreement, and production.

• The A400M Program: A Snapshot
• The A400M Program: Airbus’ Dilemmas
• Updates & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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Chinese economic pressure, US DIA report, Javelin missile contract. (Feb 25/10)

Despite China’s military buildup across the strait, key weapons sales of P-3 maritime patrol aircraft, Patriot PAC-3 missiles, and diesel-electric submarines to Taiwan have been sabotaged by Taiwanese politics for years – in some cases, since 1997. The KMT party’s flip-flops and determined stalling tactics eventually created a crisis in US-Taiwan relations, which finally soured to the point that the USA refused a Taiwanese request for F-16C/D aircraft.

That seems to have brought things to a head. Most of the budget and political issues were eventually sorted out, and after a long delay, some major elements of Taiwan’s requested modernization program appear to be moving forward: P-3 maritime patrol aircraft, Patriot missile upgrades; and requests for AH-64D attack helicopters, UH-60M Black Hawks helicopters, E-2 AWACS planes, minehunting ships, and missiles for defense against aircraft, ships, and tanks. These are must-have capabilities when facing a Chinese government that has vowed to take the country by force, and which is building an extensive submarine fleet, a large array of ballistic missiles, an upgraded fighter fleet, and a number of amphibious-capable divisions. Chinese pressure continues to stall some of Taiwan’s important upgrades, including diesel-electric submarines and American fighter jets. Meanwhile, other purchases continue…

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Patriot PAC-2
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Maintenance contract for UAE’s Hawk missiles. (Feb 24/10)

A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the infamous NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1]. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create havoc in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

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