“Climb every mountaaain…”
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Developed as a private venture by France’s Giat Industries (now Nexter), the CAESAR system is based around a light 155mm/52 caliber howitzer, mounted on a 6×6 truck chassis fitted with an armored cab. The air-portable mobile howitzer system has been sold to France and Thailand, but its export history had not been as successful as Giat had hoped – and it has a very interesting history in the USA.

In July 2006, Giat Industries announced an export contract for 76 of its CAESAR artillery systems, mounted on a Soframe-Unimog truck chasis. While Giat would not confirm the customer, Agence-France Presse reported that they were destined for Saudi Arabia. This certainly fit expectations in the wake of the July 21/06 defense cooperation agreement it signed with France.

Since then, a number of French deals to Saudi Arabia have fallen through or been delayed indefinitely. A recent Jane’s report adds credence to the AFP reports, however, and indicates that the Caesar sale is moving ahead…

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Austrian Alouette-III
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In 2003, India issued an RFP for 197 light helicopters to replace its Army’s aging fleet of Chetaks (Aerospatiale SA316 Alouette III) and Cheetahs (SE316B Alouette II). These helicopters are old designs, but they have consistently proven themselves in high altitude operations and remain useful. The Army Aviation Corps wanted new helicopters with better performance and support characteristics to perform a variety of armed light utility tasks, including ferrying loads of up to 75 kg to troops based at heights of 23,000 feet around Kashmir, the Siachen Glacier, et. al. Operation at these altitudes has traditionally been very challenging for helicopters, owing to reduced rotor lift in the thinning air.

Indian officials were discussing a deal worth between $500-$600 million to buy 60 helicopters outright, with the remaining 137 being built under license by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). Eurocopter’s AS550 C3 Fennec and Bell Textron’s 407 competed in the second and final round of summer trials, and as 2007 ticked toward a close, it looked like we had a winner. As often happens in India, however, the process ended up completely derailed. Now, there’s a new RFP – this time, for 312 helicopters…

• The Contenders [updated]
• Milestones & Developments [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
  
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Adm. Gorshkov: Before.
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On January 20, 2004 India and Russia signed a deal to refurbish and convert the 40,000t Soviet/Russian Admiral Gorshkov into a full carrier by removing the guns, anti-shipping and anti-air missile launchers on the front deck, replacing them with a full runway and ski jump, changing the boilers to diesel fuel, enlarging and strengthening the rear aircraft elevator, and many other modifications. The announced delivery date for INS Vikramaditya was August 2008 – an ambitious schedule, but one that would allow the carrier to enter service in 2009, around the time as their 29,000t light carrier/LHA INS Viraat (formerly HMS Hermes, last of the Centaur class) was scheduled to retire. The new ship will berth at the new Indian Navy facility in Karwar, on India’s west coast.

Initial reports of delays sparked controversy in India, but even the Ministry has now admitted their truth. The INS Viraat’s retirement is now set for 2010-2012 – but even that may not be late enough, as slow negotiations and steadily-lengthening delivery times will push delivery of the Gorshkov back to 2010 at the earliest. Reports of delivery in 2012 or later have surfaced, even as the delivery date for India’s 37,500 ton indigenous carrier appears to be slipping back well beyond 2013.

Right now, there are 2 major concerns in India. One is that slipping timelines could easily leave India without a serviceable aircraft carrier. The other is the extent of the cost increases, especially if more increases are added once India has paid for most of the budgeted work and is deep into the commitment trap. The carrier purchase has now become the subject of high level diplomacy, involving a shipyard that can’t even execute on commercial contracts, and an agreement in principle that has yet to be finalized into a contract…

• Waiting for Gorshkov…
• Gorshkov-Vikramaditya: Aerial Complement
• INS Vikramaditya: Updates & Contracts [updated]
• Appendix A: Additional Readings – Equipment Profiles
• Appendix B: Additional Readings – Related Developments [updated]
  
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Italian FREMM
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The Franco-Italian FREMM (FREgate Multi Mission or FREgata Multi Missione) program is designed to create an affordable and somewhat flexible naval combatant that offers good to very good performance in the 3 key fleet roles of anti-submarine warfare (ASW), ship to ship combat, and fleet defense. Each ship will be produced in 1 of 3 variants will tip this common package toward further specialization, offering excellent performance in the ASW, land attack, or air defense roles. A DDG-51 Arleigh Burke Class AEGIS destroyer can already perform all of these roles at a top-tier level, but they weigh 8,350t/9,200 tons and cost about $1.1 billion each, even after a production run of over 60 ships. In contrast, FREMM is a European project that aims to offer less all-around performance in a 5,800t hull, while including design advances like greater stealth, and Herakles/ Empar electronically scanned radars whose multiple-beam capabilities offer a potent defense against saturation attacks from supersonic missiles. All for a target price around EUR 350-450 million (currently about $525-675 million) per ship.

So far, anticipated orders sit at 28 ships: (17 France, 10 Italy, 1 Morocco), but export sales are more than possible as the FREMM consortium of DCNS, Finmeccanica, and Fincantieri goes head to head with other French (DCNS Lafayette Class variants), Spanish (Navantia’s AEGIS frigates), and Russian offerings in the global defense market. First, however, they must secure the expected orders from their home countries.

Italy provided some moments of high drama for the program in 2005, though they eventually managed to finesse their way out of the 2005 drama, ordering its first 2 frigates. A repeat seemed likely in 2007-2008, and a similar escape was used as Italy raised its order to 6 ships. Now a supplementary contract to Thales evokes an interesting comment regarding Australia…

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C-130J Hercules
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In May 2006, India Defence quoted Air Chief S.P. Tyagi saying that “the IAF is planning to buy C-130J planes” for its special forces and Border Security Forces. Reports indicate that the IAF is particularly attracted to the C-130J’s ability to land and take off even in improvised or short airfields, and without lights. Those characteristics have served the Hercules well in other anti-terrorism scenarios like Operation Yonatan in Entebbe, and are now more routine maneuvers thanks to the C-130J Hercules’ modern avionics and increased engine power. DID has also noted the ‘J’ model’s good performance in “hot and high” conditions, which can reduce the useful load of older Hercules or similar transport aircraft by 50-60%.

The new planes will be bracketed by India’s larger Ilyushin IL-76 jet transports on the high end, and on the lower end by twin-engine Antonov AN-32 turboprops. India’s interest in the Hercules is quite specific to the Special Forces at the moment; but the plane’s capacity for additional specialty operations like aerial refueling both enhances those operations, and gives the IAF a number of additional employment options. The AN-32s are currently undergoing mid-life refurbishment, and a joint project with Russia’s Irkut looks set to develop a Hercules competitor in time for the AN-32’s replacement cycle.

Nevertheless, this deal is still a major inroad into the Indian market for Lockheed Martin – one that could develop further on a number of fronts. The government has now confirmed that a Letter of Agreement has been signed, and gives exact figures…

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PZA LOARA
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In the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse, the Warsaw Pact defense industries that had supported its mailitary machine were faced with painful restructuring. Poverty and poor national infrastructure left governments with other priorities, even as Russia’s own implosion removed any sense of threat from that quarter. The state-controlled arms company Bumar s.o.o. began in 2002 with the fusion of 8 defense plants, and within a year 3 more plants joined the group; a 2004 interview with Chairman Roman Baczynski predicted a total of 16 plants, with a common logistics and supply system underneath and further restructuring and streamlining to follow. The firm’s specialties include vehicles, guns, and air defense systems. The Polish PT-91, an upgraded T-72M1 tank, is their premier platform.

In late February 2008, Bumar announced it was poised to sign a EUR 809 million (about $1.2 billion) multi-contract deal to supply military equipment to India. Proposed contracts to India need to be greeted with skepticism, because they are often held up for long periods of time, or disappear altogether. Nevertheless, it’s clear that some discussions are in progress regarding…

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KC-X contenders
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As the $35 billion KC-45 tanker purchase flies into the teeth of Washington’s political battles, the Lexington Institute think-tank discusses the relative ratings of each contestant in the USAF’s aerial tanker competition. This is a bit unusual, as even Boeing has yet to hear the official debrief – a fact that has them somewhat upset. DID would not normally consider a report of this nature credible, but the think-tank has a wide range of contacts in Washington, and has been focusing on this deal for some time. Their broad assessment also mirrors commenets made by Sen Richard Shelby [R-AL], so it is possible – but not certain – that their report is correct.

Lexington defense analyst Loren Thompson contends that the Airbus/Northrop Grumman proposal would be able to deliver 49 operational tankers by 2013, whereas Boeing would have been able to deliver just 19 aircraft within that timeframe. That’s an interesting calculation whose basis DID would be interested in viewing, but public access may be an issue as it was attributed to USAF reviewers. Beyond that, Thompson concludes that Boeing lost out on 4 of 5 key measures, and tied on the 5th. Of course, sharp-eyed DID readers will recall that they were 9 Key Performance Parameters listed in the RFP…

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Chilean A-37
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The A-37 Dragonfly was developed from the T-37 Tweet trainer as a counter-insurgency support aircraft, whereupon it was sent to Vietnam and became only aircraft to undergo operational testing in actual combat. The jet’s slow speed, excellent maneuverability when performing close air support, maintainability on the ground, and ability to carry its own weight in ordnance made it a popular and effective choice on the front lines. Several Latin American air forces still fly the A-37, and now Pakistan and Peru have expressed interest in the A-37Bs used by South Korea’s Black Eagles aerobatic flight team since 1994. The A-37Bs will be replaced shortly by South Korea’s own supersonic T-50s.

KOIS reports that Peru’s air force chief of staff asked about the A-37Bs during his October 2007 meeting with Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) commissioner Lee Sun-hi. Peru already operates the A-37B with Grupo Aereo 7 at Piura, near its northern border with Ecuador. Its air force is a mix of Russian and Western types, but budget issues and low readiness are often cited as problems with the fleet.

A-37, USAF Museum
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Pakistan requested engine parts, and possibly aircraft, via a diplomatic channel in May 2007. The Pakistani Air Force does not operate A-37s in an attack role, though its ongoing civil war may make that option attractive. It does operate T-37 Tweet trainers at its Academy in Risalpur, however; they are scheduled for withdrawal once the K-8 Karakorum (aka. Hongdu JL-8) arrives in sufficient numbers, but until then they will need to be maintained.

Rafale B
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“Africa: The Next Defense Market Opportunity?” discussed Forecast International’s look at some very specific opportunities in that continent – one of which was Libya. Libyan ruler Muammar Gadaffi has shifted his country from rogue state status in the 1970s and 1980s, to a policy that completely disclosed the surprising progress of their weapons of mass destruction programs and sought normalized relations with the western world. In 2004 the European Union lifted a 1986 arms embargo against Libya, and in 2006 the USA restored full diplomatic relations. Many credit in part the influence of his son Saif al-Islam [BBC interview | TIME article], whose graduate degrees the University of Vienna and the London School of Economics reportedly included work studying transitions from rentier states and dictatorships to free market societies; he is currently working with Michael Porter to this end.

Libya’s military has traditionally been Soviet supplied, alongside some equipment from France. The demise of the Soviet Union, the 1990s drop in oil prices, and Libya’s pariah status all combined to choke military modernization – but Libya’s new political direction, and the rise in oil prices, are changing that. Unsurprisingly, there have been widespread reports in recent days that France and Libya have signed a Memorandum of Understanding covering arms deals worth up to EUR 4.5 billion, including the first foreign sale of the Rafale fighter. Has France learned the lessons of Morocco and Saudi Arabia? Can the Rafale find an export home at last? Will the deals come to fruition? DID reports.

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SSN Akula Class
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According to GlobalSecurity.org, India’s ATV (advanced technology vessel) program to build a nuclear-powered submarine began in 1974, and became a serious effort in 1985. The Federation of American Scientists’ December 1996 document “The Indian Strategic Nuclear Submarine Project: An Open Literature Analysis” remains one of the best single open sources on India’s program. Unfortunately, it was compiled over a decade ago and has become rather dated.

Meanwhile, even if one leaves out the problem-plagued Type 091 Han Class nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN) and old, updated-Romeo Type 035 Ming Class SSKs entirely, China’s attack sub force is still projected at about 30 subs by 2010, including 4 Type 093 Shang Class SSN nuclear powered attack subs and 8 Kilo (Project 636) & Advanced Kilo Class (Project 877) diesel-electric SSKs…

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