Patriot PAC-2
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A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the infamous NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1]. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create havoc in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

In June 2008, over $10 billion worth of December 2007 Patriot missile upgrade requests in the UAE and Kuwait shone a spotlight on the region’s new defense priorities. In December 2008, a multi-billion dollar Patriot missile contract from the UAE seemed to lock in that shift, and Kuwait is proceeding with upgrades to its own Patriot systems. Upgrades that have led to recent contracts, and sales requests…

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Adm. Gorshkov: Before.
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This free-to-view DID Spotlight article offers an in-depth look at India’s troubled attempt to convert and field a full-size aircraft carrier, before time and wear force it to retire its existing naval aviation and ships.

Right now, there are 2 major concerns in India. One is slipping timelines. INS Viraat was scheduled to retire in 2009. It’s only semi-operational, and nearing the limits of its mechanical life, even as shortages of flyable Sea Harrier fighters are creating issues of their own. Meanwhile, the delivery date for India’s locally-built 37,000t escort carrier project appears to be slipping to 2015 or so. This leaves India’s Navy with a serious scheduling problem, and no significant carrier force.

The other concern involves Vikramaditya’s 3-fold cost increase, including worries that Russia will raise it rates yet again once India is deeper into the commitment trap. The carrier purchase has now become the subject of high level diplomacy, involving a shipyard that can’t even execute on commercial contracts. An agreement in principle reportedly exists, but negotiations that began in 2007 have yet to lead to a revised contract.

Recent Russian demands have continued to raise the price, even as advance work related to India’s new MiG-29K naval fighters continues. The latest news is a report that India is expressing interest in buying one of Britain’s 65,000t CVF carriers, as negotiations with Russia remain stalled…

• Waiting for Gorshkov – A History
• Gorshkov-Vikramaditya: Aerial Complement
• INS Vikramaditya: Updates & Contracts [updated]
• Appendix A: Additional Readings – Equipment Profiles
• Appendix B: Additional Readings – Related Developments
  
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USA’s Nimitz Class &
UK’s Invincible Class
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Some nations have aircraft carriers. The USA has super-carriers. The French Charles De Gaulle Class nuclear carriers displace about 43,000t. India’s new Vikramaditya/ Admiral Gorshkov Class will have a similar displacement. The future British CVF Queen Elizabeth Class and related French PA2 Project are expected to displace about 65,000t (British) – 74,000t (French), while the British Invincible Class carriers that participated in the Falklands War weigh in at around 22,000t. Invincible actually compares well to Italy’s new Cavour Class (27,000t), and Spain’s Principe de Asturias Class (17,000t). The USA’s Nimitz Class and CVN-21 Gerald R. Ford Class, in contrast, fall in the 90,000t-105,000t range. Hence the unofficial designation “super-carriers”. Just one of these ships packs a more potent air force than many nations.

Nimitz Class cutaway
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As the successor to the 102,000 ton Nimitz Class super-carriers, the CVN-21 program aims to increase aircraft sortie generation rates by 20%, increase survivability to better handle future threats, require fewer sailors, and have depot maintenance requirements that could support an increase of up to 25% in operational availability. The combination of a new design nuclear propulsion plant and an improved electric plant are expected to provide 2-3 times the electrical generation capacity of previous carriers, which in turn enables systems like an Electromagnetic Aircraft Launching System (EMALS, replacing steam-driven catapults), Advanced Arresting Gear, and integrated combat electronics that will leverage advances in open systems architecture. Other CVN-21 features include an enhanced flight deck, improved weapons handling and aircraft servicing efficiency, and a flexible island arrangement allowing for future technology insertion. This graphic points out many of the key improvements.

DID’s CVN-21 FOCUS Article offers a detailed look at a number of the program’s key innovations, as well as a list of relevant contract awards and events. The latest news involves the imminent keel-laying for the first ship of class, FY 2010 budget figures, and contract awards and testing milestones for its revolutionary EMALS catapults and AAG arrester system…

• CVN-21: Improvements and Innovations
• Transitional Carrier: CV 77, USS George H.W. Bush
• CVN-21 Class: Contract Awards & Key Events [updated]
• CVN-21: Other Related Contracts and Events [updated]
• CVN-21 Class: Additional Readings and Sources
  
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Malaysian SU-30MKM
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On May 24/07, a rollout and demonstration ceremony was held for the first 2 Su-30MKM fighters for the Royal Malaysan Airforce (RMAF) at Russia’s Irkutsk Aviation plant. Malaysia flies the F/A-18D Hornet, and was offered Boeing’s F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, but chose the SU-30MKM instead. Their fighter fleet will now consist of R/F-5E/F Tiger IIs (to be phased out), F/A-18D Hornets, MiG-29 Fulcrums (until 2010), and SU-30MKMs. The results from their internal training air combat exercises would be interesting, to say the least.

The original $900 million contract was signed with Irkut Corp. in August 2003, and involves 18 SU-30MKMs. Canards, stabilizers and fins will be manufactured by India’s HAL Nasik under a $25-30 million value subcontract. According to the contracts in place, Irkut was to deliver all aircraft by the end of 2008, but that hasn’t happened yet. Delivery of the final batch is ongoing.

The SU-30MKM is an advanced variant, whose performance involves considerable improvements over SU-30MK/MKK fighters. Malaysia also hopes its maintenance will be an improvement over the MiG-29Ns it has to phase out – and may be about to turn to China for help…

• The SU-30MKM
• The Malaysia Deal: Offsets & Updates [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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RAAF C-130J-30, flares
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The C-130 Hercules remains one of the longest-running aerospace manufacturing programs of all time. Since 1956, over 40 models and variants have served as the tactical airlift backbone for over 50 nations. The C-130J looks similar, but the number of changes almost make it a new aircraft. Those changes also created issues; the program has been the focus of a great deal of controversy in America – and even of a full program restructuring in 2006. Some early concerns from critics were put to rest when the C-130J demonstrated in-theater performance on the front lines that represented a major improvement over its C-130E/H predecessors. A valid follow-on question might be: does it break the bottleneck limitations that have hobbled a number of multi-billion dollar US Army vehicle development programs?

C-130J customers now include Australia, Britain, Canada, Denmark, India, Iraq, Italy, Norway, Oman, Qatar, and the United States. American C-130J purchases are taking place under both annual budgets and supplemental wartime funding, in order to replace tactical transport and special forces fleets that are flying old aircraft and in dire need of major repairs.

This DID FOCUS Article describes the C-130J, examines the bottleneck issue, covers global developments for the C-130J program, and looks at present and emerging competitors. The latest update includes a USAF order for Rolls-Royce to supply AE 2100D3 spare engine parts to power the C-130J…

• The (Private) Labors of Hercules: the C-130J
• The C-130J and the 20-ton Bottleneck
• Turbulent Flight: The C-130J Program
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources, incl. emerging competitors & Special Operations requirements
  
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Swiss F-5Es
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The F-5E/F Tiger II was a follow-on upgrade to the wildly successful F-5 Freedom Fighter, a low-budget aircraft designed to capture the lower tier of the non-Soviet global fighter market in the 1960s and 1970s. A number of countries still operate F-5s, but the airframes are very old. The Swiss bought 72 F-5E/F fighters in 1976, and another 38 in 1981, for a total of 110 (98 single-seat F5E, 12 two-seat F-5F). Switzerland currently flies about 54 F-5s; A squadron of 12 were leased to Austria while they await their Eurofighters, and 44 others were sold to the US Navy.

While F-5 owners like Brazil, Chile, Thailand, et . al. have opted for comprehensive refurbishment and upgrades, Switzerland is looking to replace 3 of its 5 Tiger II squadrons with new aircraft under its Tiger-Teilersatz TTE program. The new fighters will partner with the 3 squadrons of upgraded F/A-18C/D Hornets that make up the rest of its fighter fleet. An initial evaluation RFP has been issued to 4 contenders, but Boeing’s withdrawal means the selection is now down to Sweden’s Gripen, France’s Rafale, or EADS’ Eurofighter.

Testing is now complete, and armasuisse has issued its 2nd and final RFP. Left-wing opponents of any military in Switzerland are working hard to derail the purchase, and like the 1993 F/A-18 sale, this purchase will face a national referendum. If it isn’t canceled by the Cabinet first. So far, however, the program is moving forward, and final bids have now been submitted…

• The Competition [updated]
• The Competitors
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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Scratch one flag…
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In April 2005, South Africa’s Public Enterprises Minister Alec Erwin expected the cost of the SAAF’s 8 planned Airbus A400M medium-heavy military transport aircraft to be EUR 830 million. That converted to R 6.5 billion at those exchange rates, or about $177.75 million per plane in American dollars. South Africa reportedly intended to take delivery of 8 of the A400Ms from 2010-2014, with a further 6 on option. Ordering those additional 6 aircraft would reportedly have pushed the total contract value to EUR $1.5 billion, or about R11.9 billion at those exchange rates. When the deal was signed in December 2006, the price for 8 aircraft and initial fielding had risen to R 17.646 billion, or almost $2.5 billion: about $308 million per plane.

Meanwhile, South Africa bit the bullet and decided to upgrade its 8-9 aged C-130B Hercules planes. The first SAAF C-130Bs were delivered in 1963, and badly needed additional upgrades and refurbishment.

Subsequent delays to the A400M program were set to either extend the C-130Bs’ service, or force reliance on charters, even as the A400M’s likely costs grew. That SAAF aerial uncertainty has only grown, now that South Africa has become the first country to pull out of the A400M program…

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EA-6B Prowler
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With the retirement of the US Air Force’s long-range EF-111 Raven “Spark ‘Vark,” the aging 4-seat EA-6B Prowlers are now the USA’s sole remaining tactical aircraft type for radar jamming, communications jamming and information operations like signals interception [1]. They’ve been predictably busy as a result. In Iraq, they’ve been used for everything from escorting strike aircraft against heavily defended targets during the opening days of the war, to disrupting enemy IED attacks by jamming all radio signals in an area.

EA-18G at Pax
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All airframes have lifespan limits, however, and the EA-6B is no exception. The USA’s new electronic warfare aircraft is based on Boeing’s 2-seat F/A-18F Super Hornet multi-role fighter and has 90% commonality with its counterpart. That will give it decent self-defense capabilities as well as electronic attack potential. At present, however, the EA-18G is slated to be the only dedicated electronic warfare aircraft in the USA’s future force – and since the USA is the only western country with such aircraft, it would become the sole source of tactical jamming support for NATO air forces as a whole.

DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. This article describes the aircraft and key systems, outlining the program, and keeping track of ongoing developments, contracts, et. al. that affect the program. New items will be highlighted via green type. The latest news involves the FY 2010 budget, and a parts contract…

• EA-18G: The Platform
• EA-18G: Industrial Program
• EA-18G: Numbers & Budgets [NEW]
• EA-18G: Contracts & Other Key Developments [updated]
• Appendix A: The EA-18G and the Future Force Mix
• Appendix B: Additional Readings and Sources
  
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French Mirage F1s
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Morocco’s combat air force currently flies 2 squadrons of old F-5s, and 2 squadrons of only slightly newer Mirage F1s; T-37 light jets serve as key transitional trainers. Their neighbor and rival Algeria flies MiG-23s of similar vintage, but the Force Aerienne Algerienne also flies SU-24 Fencer and SU-25 Frogfoot strike aircraft, even more modern and capable MiG-29s, and is set to receive multi-role SU-30MKs as part of a multi-billion dollar weapons deal with Russia.

Morocco can’t beat that array. Instead, they’re looking for replacement aircraft that will prevent complete overmatch, and provide a measure of security. Initially, they looked to France. France’s Rafale is part of a set of European 4+ generation fighters that were developed and fielded during the 1990s-early 21st century, with the aim of surpassing existing offerings among America’s “teen series” fighters, as well as Russia’s Mig-29 Fulcrum and SU-27/30 Flanker family. “Dogfight at the Casbah: Rafale vs. F-16” discussed the French sales slip-ups that cost Dassault its first export order for the 4+ generation fighter. That outcome is now official.

Just to make things worse, the final multi-billion dollar deal involves new-build F-16s, at a price comparable to the rumored figures for the Rafale. Not to mention an accompanying American deal to replace Morocco’s T-37 trainer fleet with T-6Cs, and contracts for air-launched weapons, targeting pods, and C-27J short-haul transports. The latest development includes a DSCA request for CH-47D helicopters…

• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Why The F-16? DID Analysis – Dec. 2007
• Additional Readings
  
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General Dynamics Team
Trimaran LCS Design
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Exploit simplicity, numbers, the pace of technology development in electronics and robotics, and fast reconfiguration. That was the US Navy’s idea for the low-end backbone of its future surface combatant fleet. Inspired by successful experiments like Denmark’s Standard Flex ships, the US Navy’s $30+ billion “Littoral Combat Ship” program was intended to create a new generation of affordable surface combatants that could operate in dangerous shallow and near-shore environments, while remaining affordable and capable throughout their lifetimes.

It hasn’t worked that way. In practice, what the Navy wanted, the capabilities needed to perform primary naval missions, and what could be delivered for the sums available, have proven nearly irreconcilable. The LCS program has changed its fundamental acquisition plan several times since 2005, and canceled contracts with both competing teams, without escaping any of its fundamental issues.

The latest additions include completion of LCS-2 builder tests, and plans to deploy LCS-1 ahead of schedule…

• LCS: Concept & Needs
• LCS: The Competing Teams
• LCS Solution = Standard Equipment + Mission Modules
• LCS: Controversies & Cautions
• LCS: Budgets and Program Structure
• LCS: Export Potential
• LCS: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• LCS Ancillaries: Mission Module & Weapon Contracts & Key Events
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
  
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