Patriot PAC-2
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A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the infamous NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1]. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create havoc in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

In June 2008, over $10 billion worth of December 2007 Patriot missile upgrade requests in the UAE and Kuwait shone a spotlight on the region’s new defense priorities. In December 2008, a multi-billion dollar Patriot missile contract from the UAE seemed to lock in that shift, and Kuwait is proceeding with upgrades to its own Patriot systems. Upgrades that have led to recent contracts, and sales requests…

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F-35A: incoming…
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The F-35 Lightning II is a major multinational program which is intended to produce an “affordably stealthy” multi-role strike fighter that will have three variants: the F-35A conventional version for the US Air Force et. al.; the F-35B Short Take-Off, Vertical Landing for the US Marines, British Royal Navy, et. al.; and the F-35C conventional carrier-launched version for the US Navy. The aircraft is named after Lockheed’s famous WW2 P-38 Lightning, and the Mach 2, stacked-engine English Electric (now BAE) Lightning jet. System development partners included The USA & Britain (Tier 1), Italy and the Netherlands (Tier 2), and Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Turkey (Tier 3), with Singapore and Israel as “Security Cooperation Partners.” Now the challenge is agreeing on production phase membership and arrangements, to be followed by initial purchase commitments around 2008-2009.

This updated article has expanded to feature more detail regarding the $300 billion F-35 program, including other contracts as well as notable events. New material is highlighted by putting it in green type. Recent news include an investigation by the Fort Worth Star-Telegram into JET’s conclusions regarding program delays, Lockheed Martin’s response, and a Rolls Royce contract for production LiftSystem engine modules…

• The F-35 Family of Aircraft (i.e. “Continue reading…”)
• F-35 Program: Production Timelines & Structure
• F-35 Program: Controversies and Competitions
• F-35 Program: Events & Developments, CY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: System Development & Production Contracts, FY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: Ancillary and Sub-contracts, FY 2009 – 2010 [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
  
  Continue Reading… »

IRST: B-2, ICU
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The F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet Block IIs are just beginning to enter service, with significantly improved AN/APG-79 AESA radars and other electronic upgrades. Recent years have seen another spreading improvement within global fighter fleets, however: Infa-Red Search & Track (IRST) systems that provide long range thermal imaging against air and ground targets. Most of these deployments have been on Russian (MiG-29 family, SU-30 family) and European (Eurofighter, Rafale) fighters, or special American exports (UAE’s F-16E/F Block 60s, F-15K/SG).

That absence puts American fighters behind an important curve. This IRST approach can defeat radar stealth in some instances, by focusing on engine exhaust or on the friction of the aircraft as it powers through the atmosphere. As F-14 pilots will recall, long range electro-optics also offer positive identification, conferring the ability to use a plane’s missiles to their full ranges, without creating friendly fire concerns. Best of all, IRST offers a passive way to locate and target enemy aircraft – one that won’t trigger radar warning receivers. When coupled with medium-range IR missiles like some Russian AA-10 variants, France’s MICA-IR, or even future versions of AMRAAM NCADE, an IRST system offers a fighter both an extra set of medium-range eyes, and a stealthy air-to-air combat weapon.

A program is beginning that would give American “teen series” fighters this capability, albeit in a somewhat unusual way…

• Tanks for the View: The IRST + Fuel Solution
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
  
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67% of the fleet
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The prime missions of the new DDG-1000 Zumwalt Class destroyer are to provide naval gunfire support and next-generation air defense in near-shore areas where other large ships hesitate to tread, possibly even as the anchor for an action group of stealthy Littoral Combat Ships and submarines. The estimated 14,500t (cruiser sized) Zumwalt Class will be fully multi-role, however, with undersea warfare, anti-ship, and long-range surface attack roles.

That makes the DDG-1000 suitable or another role – as a “hidden ace card,” using its overall stealth to create uncertainty for enemy forces. At over $3 billion per ship for construction alone, however, the program faced significant obstacles if it wanted to avoid fulfilling former Secretary of the Navy Donald Winter’s fears for the fleet.

True, or False?
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DID’s FOCUS Article for the DDG-1000 program covers the new ships’ capabilities and technologies, key controversies, associated contracts and costs, and related background resources. From the outset, DID has noted that the Zumwalt Class might face the same fate as the ultra-sophisticated, ultra-expensive SSN-21 Seawolf Class submarines. That appears to have come true, with news of the program’s cancellation at 3 ships. Or will it be 2?

The latest news involves more funds to finish the ship’s computing backbone, which has been identified as a concern in recent GAO reports…

• Zumwalt Class: Program and Participants (i.e. “Continue reading…”)
• DDG-1000 Key Technologies and Features
• DDG-1000 Issues and Controversies
• Zumwalt Class: Contracts and Key Events
  • FY 2009 [updated]
  • FY 2008
  • FY 2007
  • FY 2006
  • FY 2005
  • FY 1998 through 2004
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
  Continue Reading… »

Barak launch
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Despite a development timeline measured in decades, India’s indigenous “Akash” and “Trishul” programs for surface to air missiles have failed to inspire full confidence. Trishul was eventually cancelled entirely, and Akash is now slated for limited deployment only. India still needed advanced SAMs to equip its navy and army, however, and decided to try to duplicate the success of the Russian partnership that had fielded the excellent PJ-10 BrahMos supersonic cruise missile.

In February 2006, therefore, Israel and India signed a joint development agreement to create a new Barak-NG medium shipborne air defense missile, as an evolution of the Barak-1 system in service with both navies. In July 2007 the counterpart MR-SAM project began moving forward, aiming to develop a medium range SAM for use with India’s land forces. Both missiles would now be called Barak-8. In between, “India to Buy Israeli “SPYDER” Mobile Air Defense System” covered India’s move to begin buying mobile, short-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems for its army, based on the Python and Derby air-to-air missiles in service with its air force and naval aircraft.

These projects offer India a way forward to address its critical air defense weaknesses, and upgrade “protection of vital and strategic ground assets and area air defence.” In Israel, the Barak-8 is slated to equip its next-generation frigates, and may find its way to other roles. Beyond those 2 countries, export prospects beckon for a missile that may offer a value-priced alternative to the popular Standard-2 and Aster-15. This DID FOCUS article will cover the Barak-8 pograms in India, Israel, and beyond. The latest development involves additional reports that a firm $1+ billion contract has been signed…

• The Barak, and Barak-8 [NEW]
• India’s Barak Programs [updated]
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
  Continue Reading… »

Reaper, ready…
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The MQ-9 Reaper UAV, once called “Predator B,” is somewhat similar to the famous Predator. Until you look at the tail. Or its size. Or its weapons. It’s called “Reaper” for a reason – while it packs the same surveillance gear, it’s much more of a hunter-killer design. The Reaper is 36 feet long, with a 66 foot wingspan. Its maximum gross takeoff weight is a whopping 10,500 pounds, carrying up to 4,000 pounds of fuel, 850 pounds of internal/ sensor payload, and another 3,000 pounds on its wings. Its 6 pylons can carry GPS-guided JDAM family bombs, Paveway laser-guided bombs, Sidewinder missiles for air-air self defense, and other MIL STD 1760 compatible weapons, in addition to the Hellfire anti-armor missiles carried by the Predator. When loaded up with laser-guided Hydra rockets, the Reaper becomes the equivalent of a close air support fighter with less situational awareness, lower speed, and less survivability if seen – but much, much longer on-station time. Some have called it the first fielded Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV).

DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. The Reaper UCAV will play a significant role in the future USAF, even though capability set makes the MQ-9 considerably more expensive than MQ-1 Predators, whose price benefits from less advanced design and volume production orders. Given these high-end capabilities, and expenses, one might not have expected the MQ-9 to enjoy better export success than its famous cousin. Nevertheless, that’s what appears to be happening. MQ-9 operators currently include the USA and Britain, who have both used it in hunter-killer mode, and Italy. Other countries are also expressing interest, and international deployments are accelerating.

As a convenience to readers, new material is indicated in green type. The latest additions include reports of “phone home” problems, Germany going in another direction for UAVs, and the basing of MQ-9s in the Seychelles for anti-piracy missions…

• The MQ-9 Reaper, and its Little Brothers
• Contracts & Key Events, 2005 SDD – Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
  Continue Reading… »

[by John MacNeill]
Goo goo g’joob!

In April 2005, “USN, DARPA See Blimps & HULAs Rising”, looked at a range of projects on the drawing board, including the Walrus heavy-transport blimp (that’s “heavy” as in “1-2 million pounds”) which offered the potential for a faster and more versatile sealift substitute.

In this article DID explains the Walrus concept, details the contractors and contracts involved in this initial award (including a few updates), and lays out the program’s structure… or at least, what used to be its structure. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) funded phase 1 contracts, but things seemed to end in 2006. Yet the imperatives driving the need for Walrus, or even for a much smaller version of it, remain. Is the Walrus dead? What about Paul? And could it, or a HULA like like it, rise again?

Continue Reading… »

UCAS-D concept
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In January 2006, DID noted the uncertain future of the J-UCAS program, which aimed to create Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) for the USAF and Navy that could approach the capabilities of an F-117 stealth fighter. Boeing’s X-45C was set to face off against Northrop Grumman’s X-47B Pegasus, the program had demonstrated successful tests that included dropping bombs, and aerial refueling tests were envisioned.

J-UCAS was eventually canceled, but the technologies have survived, and the US Navy remains interested. In May 2007, “CSBA on Future US Naval Aviation: Unmanned, Too?” highlighted a non-partisan report that discussed at the lengthening reach of ship-killers. Meanwhile, the US Navy’s carrier fleet sees its strike range shrinking to 1950s distances, and prepares for a future with 11 operational carriers – but just 10 carrier air wings. Could UCAV/UCAS vehicles with longer ranges, and indefinite flight time limits via aerial refueling, solve these problems?

Some people in the Navy seem to think that they might. Hence UCAS-D, whose aerial refueling and carrier landing programs are picking up steam. Recent additions include remarks by CNO Adm. Gary Roughead, and full carrier landing gear delivery…

• The UCAS-D Program [updated]
• The X-47B
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
  Continue Reading… »

F125 Concept
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There is general acknowledgment in global naval circles that many future operations are going to involve shallow littoral chokepoints for maritime trade, operations in and around failed states like Somalia, and expeditionary stabilization operations. That realization has driven a number of approaches to naval construction.

In the Netherlands, Royal Schelde’s Sigma Ships are designed in block modules, which can be added or subtracted to build anything from an offshore patrol vessel to a large frigate. Denmark is already building its Flyverfisken Class and Absalon Class ships, which pioneered the mission module concept and can be used in roles ranging ranging from mine or sub hunting, to anti-ship warfare/ land attack, to carrying troops. Sweden’s Visby Class stealth corvettes are attracting renewed American attention, and helped to inspire the American concept of the Littoral Combat Ship – which has been criticized for its cost, and for packing less punch and having less high-end armament flexibility than any competitor.

Germany’s response has been the F125 frigate, which might best be described as an “expeditionary frigate” design. It doesn’t use the Danish or American mission module concept. Instead, it includes a number of features aimed at making it a strong contributor to long international deployments in littoral environments, and to naval support for stabilization operations.

The latest addition involves a key merger, and a satellite terminal contract…

• The F125: Key Features
• F125: Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
  Continue Reading… »

Into that good night
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The 5th-generation F-22A Raptor fighter program has been the subject of fierce controversy, with advocates and detractors aplenty. On the one hand, the aircraft offers full stealth, revolutionary radar and sensor capabilities, dual air-air and air-ground SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) capabilities, the ability to cruise above Mach 1 without afterburners, thrust-vectoring super-maneuverability… and a ridiculously lopsided kill record in exercises against the best American fighters. On the other hand, critics charge that it’s too expensive, too limited, and cripples the USAF’s overall force structure. Meanwhile, close American allies like Australia, Japan and Israel, and other allies like Korea, are pressing the USA to abandon its “no export” policy. Most already fly F-15s, but they’re interested in an export version of the F-22 in order to help them deal with advanced – and advancing – Russian-designed aircraft, air-to-air missiles, and surface-to-air missile systems.

This DID FOCUS Article covers both sides of the F-22 controversies in the USA and abroad, and it will also be updated over time to cover and backfill contracts and events related to the F-22A Raptor program. This article has been restored to full public access, as F-22 program winds down to its end.

Recent updates include significant votes in the House and Senate, which will effectively end American F-22 production. But contracts continue, including a $474.2 million contract for 4 Lot X F-22A aircraft…

• The F-22 Raptor: Key Capabilities
• The F-22 Raptor: Criticisms & Controversies
• F-22 Raptor: Program and Events
  • Events: 2009
  • Events: 2008
  • Events: 2007
  • Events: 2006
  • Events: Pre-2006
• F-22 Raptor: Contracts & Production
  • Contracts: FY 2009 [updated]
  • Contracts: FY 2008
  • Contracts: FY 2007
  • Contracts: FY 2006
  • Contracts: Pre-FY 2006
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
  • The F-22 & Key Components
  • The F-22 Program
  • Official Reports
  • Controversies & Events
    
    Continue Reading… »