UCAS-D concept
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N-UCAS receives $2 billion QDR push, aims for quasi-operational status. (Feb 4/10)

In early 2006 the future of the J-UCAS program seemed uncertain. It aimed to create Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) for the USAF and Navy that could approach the capabilities of an F-117 stealth fighter. Boeing’s X-45C was set to face off against Northrop Grumman’s X-47B Pegasus, the program had demonstrated successful tests that included dropping bombs, and aerial refueling tests were envisioned.

J-UCAS was eventually canceled, but the technologies have survived, and the US Navy remains interested. A May 2007 non-partisan report discussed the lengthening reach of ship-killers. Meanwhile, the US Navy’s carrier fleet sees its strike range shrinking to 1950s distances, and prepares for a future with 11 operational carriers – but just 10 carrier air wings. Could UCAV/UCAS vehicles with longer ranges, and indefinite flight time limits via aerial refueling, solve these problems? Some people in the Navy seem to think that they might. Hence UCAS-D/ N-UCAS, which has received a major push in the FY 2010 defense review.

• The UCAS-D Program
• The X-47B
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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67% of the fleet
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Program changes create a Nunn-McCurdy breach, trigger forced review. (Feb 3/10)

The prime missions of the new DDG-1000 Zumwalt Class destroyer are to provide naval gunfire support and next-generation air defense in near-shore areas where other large ships hesitate to tread, possibly even as the anchor for an action group of stealthy Littoral Combat Ships and submarines. The estimated 14,500t (cruiser sized) Zumwalt Class will be fully multi-role, however, with undersea warfare, anti-ship, and long-range surface attack roles.

That makes the DDG-1000 suitable or another role – as a “hidden ace card,” using its overall stealth to create uncertainty for enemy forces. At over $3 billion per ship for construction alone, however, the program faced significant obstacles if it wanted to avoid fulfilling former Secretary of the Navy Donald Winter’s fears for the fleet.

True, or False?
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DID’s FOCUS Article for the DDG-1000 program covers the new ships’ capabilities and technologies, key controversies, associated contracts and costs, and related background resources. From the outset, DID has noted that the Zumwalt Class might face the same fate as the ultra-sophisticated, ultra-expensive SSN-21 Seawolf Class submarines. That appears to have come true, with news of the program’s truncation to just 3 ships. Meanwhile, production continues.

• Zumwalt Class: Program and Participants
• DDG-1000 Key Technologies and Features
• DDG-1000 Issues and Controversies
• Zumwalt Class: Contracts and Key Events
  • FY 2010 [updated]
  • FY 2009
  • FY 2008
  • FY 2007
  • FY 2006
  • FY 2005
  • FY 1998 through 2004
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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Reaper, ready…
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Test variants for USAF, USCG; Gorgon stare pod; new Reaper weapon?; Comlink compromise; MQ-9 shootdown. (Feb 2/10)

The MQ-9 Reaper UAV, once called “Predator B,” is somewhat similar to the famous Predator. Until you look at the tail. Or its size. Or its weapons. It’s called “Reaper” for a reason – while it packs the same surveillance gear, it’s much more of a hunter-killer design. Some have called it the first fielded Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV).

DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. The Reaper UCAV will play a significant role in the future USAF, even though its capability set makes the MQ-9 considerably more expensive than MQ-1 Predators, whose price benefits from less advanced design and volume production orders. Given these high-end capabilities, and expenses, one might not have expected the MQ-9 to enjoy better export success than its famous cousin. Nevertheless, that’s what appears to be happening. MQ-9 operators currently include the USA and Britain, who have both used it in hunter-killer mode, and Italy. Other countries are also expressing interest, and international deployments are accelerating.

• The MQ-9 Reaper, and its Little Brothers
• Contracts & Key Events, 2005 SDD – Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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Austal MRV/JHSV concept
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Is program expansion from 8 to 28 ships in the cards? (Feb 3/10)

The US Army and Navy have leased Incat TSV/HSV wave-piercing catamaran ship designs, while the Marines’ charged ahead with very successful use of Austal’s Westpac Express high-speed catamaran. These Australian-designed ships all give commanders the ability to roll on a company with full gear and equipment (or roll on a full infantry battalion if used only as a troop transport), haul it intra-theater distances at 38 knots, then move their shallow draft safely into austere ports to roll them off.

Unsurprisingly, their use has attracted favorable comment and notice from all services. So favorable that the experiments have led to a $1.6 billion program called the Joint High Speed Vessel, which could involve up to 10 ships. These designs may even have uses beyond simple ferrying and transport. DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record, and this article covers JHSV from its inception onward.

• The US Military’s HSV/TSV Experience
• The JHSV Program
• Contracts & Key Events
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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General Dynamics Team
Trimaran LCS Design
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New RFP, FY 2011 budget request, Problems with ship survivability, LCS-2 commissioning, GAO costs report. (Feb 2/10)

Exploit simplicity, numbers, the pace of technology development in electronics and robotics, and fast reconfiguration. That was the US Navy’s idea for the low-end backbone of its future surface combatant fleet. Inspired by successful experiments like Denmark’s Standard Flex ships, the US Navy’s $30+ billion “Littoral Combat Ship” program was intended to create a new generation of affordable surface combatants that could operate in dangerous shallow and near-shore environments, while remaining affordable and capable throughout their lifetimes.

It hasn’t worked that way. In practice, what the Navy wanted, the capabilities needed to perform primary naval missions, and what could be delivered for the sums available, have proven nearly irreconcilable. The LCS program has changed its fundamental acquisition plan several times since 2005, and canceled contracts with both competing teams, without escaping any of its fundamental issues. This public-access FOCUS article offer a wealth of research material, alongside looks at the LCS program’s designs, industry teams procurement plans, military controversies, and contracts.

• LCS: Concept & Needs
• LCS: The Competing Teams
• LCS Solution = Standard Equipment + Mission Modules
• LCS: Controversies & Cautions
• LCS: Budgets and Program Structure [updated]
• LCS: Export Potential
• LCS: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• LCS Ancillaries: Mission Module & Weapon Contracts & Key Events
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
  
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E-737 Wedgetail
over New South Wales
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Successful C2 test, 5-year support contract for Thales. (Feb 2/10)

The island continent of Australia faces a number of unique security challenges that stem from its geography. The continent may be separated from its neighbors by large expanses of ocean, but it also resides within a potential arc of instability, and has a number of important offshore resource sites to protect. Full awareness of what is going on around them, and the ability to push that awareness well offshore, are critical security requirements.

“Project Wedgetail” had 3 finalists, and the winner was a new variant of Boeing’s 737-700, fitted with an MESA (multirole electronically scanned array) radar from Northrop Grumman. That radar exchanges the traditional AWACS rotating dome for the E-737’s stationary antenna and its “top hat” look. That design, and the project as a whole, have run into severe turbulence, creating problems for Boeing earnings, the ADF, and other export orders for the type. DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. This one covers contracts, events, and key milestones within Australia’s E-737 program, from inception to the current day.

• Project Wedgetail: Program and Participants
• Contracts & Key Events, 1997 – Present [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
  
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F-35A: incoming…
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FY 2011 budget proposals, withheld performance fees, a change in program leadership, Australian reaction. (Feb 2/10)

The $300+ billion F-35 Joint Strike fighter may well be the largest single global defense program in history. This major multinational program is intended to produce an “affordably stealthy” multi-role fighter that will have 3 variants: the F-35A conventional version for the US Air Force et. al.; the F-35B Short Take-Off, Vertical Landing for the US Marines, British Royal Navy, et. al.; and the F-35C conventional carrier-launched version for the US Navy. The aircraft is named after Lockheed’s famous WW2 P-38 Lightning, and the Mach 2, stacked-engine English Electric (now BAE) Lightning jet. Lightning II system development partners included The USA & Britain (Tier 1), Italy and the Netherlands (Tier 2), and Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Turkey (Tier 3), with Singapore and Israel as “Security Cooperation Partners.” Now the challenge is agreeing on production phase membership and arrangements, to be followed by initial purchase commitments in 2009-2010.

This updated article has expanded to feature more detail regarding the F-35 program, including contracts, sub-contracts, and notable events and reports. New material is highlighted by putting it in green type.

• The F-35 Family of Aircraft
• F-35 Program: Production Timelines & Structure
• F-35 Program: Controversies and Competitions
• F-35 Program: Events & Developments, CY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: System Development & Production Contracts, FY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: Ancillary and Sub-contracts, FY 2009 – 2010
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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Rommel understood logistics
(German Federal Archives)
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The importance of logistics has long been recognized by generals. German Field Marshall Edwin Rommel once commented: “Battles are decided by the quartermasters before the first shot is fired.”

Apparently Rommel’s colleagues didn’t take his advice when preparing for the invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941. The German army had planned for a swift victory, similar to the victory against France, so there was inadequate planning to equip the German troops for a long drawn out conflict in a brutal winter environment. But that is what they got, and the invasion ultimately failed.

To ensure its logistics system is up to the task of fighting overseas wars, the US Army Material Command (AMC) launched an effort called the Logistics Modernization Program (LMP). The program is designed to modernize systems and processes associated with managing the Army’s supply chain using a COTS-based enterprise resource planning (ERP) product developed by SAP. AMC recently awarded contract modifications to LMP prime contractor CSC in Falls Church, VA, worth $261 million to provide IT and logistics services under the LMP…

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Boeing gets $21 million contract to integrate, test, and store the 1.5 ship-sets of the WGS xenon-ion propulsion system. (Jan 29/10)

The WGS program is actually a set of 13-kilowatt spacecraft based upon Boeing’s model 702 commercial satellite. These satellites will support the USA’s warfighting bandwidth requirements, supporting tactical C4ISR (command, control, communications, and computers; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance); battle management; and combat support needs. The program name has been changed for some reason from “Wideband Gapfiller Satellite” to “Wideband Global SATCOM,” presumably to avoid the (correct) suggestion that it fills an emerging gap. Readers should be aware that references to either title in documents, archives, or the media denote the same program.

Upon its first launch into geosynchronous orbit, WGS Flight 1 became the U.S. Department of Defense’s highest capacity communication satellite. This is DID’s FOCUS Article covering the WGS program…

• WGS: Capabilities & Role
• The WGS Program & Schedule [updated]
• WGS Program: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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Patriot PAC-2
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Nearly $45 million in PAC-3 upgrades for UAE. (Jan 26/10)

A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the infamous NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1]. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create havoc in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

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