Patriot PAC-2
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A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the infamous NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1]. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create havoc in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

In June 2008, over $10 billion worth of December 2007 Patriot missile upgrade requests in the UAE and Kuwait shone a spotlight on the region’s new defense priorities. In December 2008, a multi-billion dollar Patriot missile contract from the UAE seemed to lock in that shift, and Kuwait is proceeding with upgrades to its own Patriot systems. Upgrades that have led to recent contracts, and sales requests…

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GMD launch, 2001
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The USA’s Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) program uses land-based missiles to intercept incoming ballistic missiles in the middle of their flight, outside the atmosphere. The missiles are currently based at 2 sites in the USA: 4 at Vandenberg AFB in California, and 20 (eventually 26) at Fort Greely in Alaska.

The well-known Patriot missiles provide what’s known as terminal-phase defense options, while longer-reach options like the land-based THAAD perform terminal or descent-phase interceptions. Both can be used against intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), but their sensors and flight ranges are best suited to defense against shorter range missiles launched from in-theater. In contrast, GMD is designed to defend against ICBMs. It depends on tracking that begins in the boost phase, in order to allow true mid-course interception attempts in space, before descent or terminal phase options like THAAD and then Patriot would be tried. In order to accomplish that task, GMD missiles must use data feeds from an assortment of long-range sensors, including the naval SBX radar.

GMD’s future is the long term question, given directions set by the new Obama administration. Recent developments include the FY 2010 budget, and the reported closure of several silos in Alaska, due to plumbing problems…

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Northrop Grumman’s E-2C Hawkeye serves as the US Navy and French Navy’s carrier-capable “mini-AWACS” aircraft. Its primary role is advance warning of incoming aerial threats; ship-based radars are far larger and more powerful, but cannot scan below the angle of the horizon. Secondary roles include strike command and control, land and maritime surveillance, search and rescue, communications relay, and even civil air traffic control during emergencies. E-2C Hawkeyes began replacing previous Hawkeye versions in 1973; they also fly from land bases in the militaries of Egypt, Japan, Mexico, Singapore, and Taiwan; and are flown by the US Naval Reserve in a drug interdiction role. Over 200 Hawkeyes have been produced.

The $17.5 billion E-2D Advanced Hawkeye program aims to build 75 new aircraft with significant radar, engine, and electronics upgrades in order to deal with a world of stealthier cruise missiles, saturation attacks, and a growing need for ground surveillance as well as aerial scans. It looks a lot like the last generation E-2C Hawkeye 2000 upgrade on the outside – but inside, and even outside to some extent, it’s a whole new aircraft.

DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. This DID FOCUS Article covers the E-2D program, from the new platform and its capabilities to the budgets, contracts, and companies making it all fly. The latest news involves a $15.6 million Northrop Grumman order to provide Phase I aircraft data management for the E-2D aircraft…

• From E-2A Hawkeye to the E-2D
• E-2D Advanced Hawkeye: Program
• E-2D Advanced Hawkeye: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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Land-based SM-3 concept
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In July 2008, Aviation Week reported that the US Missile Defense Agency was considering a land-based variant of the SM-3 Standard missile – largely due to specific requests from Israel.

Israel currently fields the medium range Arrow-2 land-based ABM system, supplemented by Patriot missiles for point defense. The Arrow has performed well in tests, however, and an order for more was placed as recently as February 2008. What could Israel’s rationale be?

DID discusses some possible rationales, and also discusses developments. Which includes a big role for land-based SM-3s in the USA’s future missile defense architecture…

• The SM-3 Option [NEW]
• Israel’s Possible Rationales [updated]
• Updates and Developments [updated]
  
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AEGIS-BMD: CG-70
launches SM-3
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The AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense System seamlessly integrates the SPY-1 radar, the MK 41 Vertical Launching System for missiles, the SM-3 Standard missile, and the ship’s command and control system. Like its less-capable AEGIS counterpart, the AEGIS BMD Weapon System can also integrate with other radars on land and sea via Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC), receiving cues from and providing information to other platforms, in order to create a battle picture that’s more detailed than any one radar could produce alone.

AEGIS has become a widely-deployed gold standard for current western naval defensive systems, and is in service or planned for service with 6 different countries. What does it do? What is AEGIS BMD, and how does it differ? And what enhancements are underway?....

• What Is AEGIS?
• AEGIS Missile Defense Capabilities
• AEGIS BMDS: The Program, 1995 – Present
• Contracts & Updates, FY 2007 – Present
• Additional Readings
  
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DSP-16 Deploys
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Defense Support Program (DSP) satellites have been monitoring the skies as America’s early-warning system for ballistic missile launches since their first launch in 1970. The current Satellite Early Warning System (SEWS) consists of 5 DSP satellites; 3 provide frontline operational service, with 2 available as backups should problems emerge with the primary satellites.

The program’s lifetime has seen the launch of 23 DSP satellites, and improvements to DSP via 5 upgrade sets have allowed those satellites to exceed their design lifespan. The USAF’s fact sheet lists the satellites’ unit cost at $400 million, though they do not mention what fiscal year baseline that figure is linked to. While the DSP satellites successfully detected Iraqi SCUD launches during Operation Desert Storm, testimony before Congress has noted that there are some classes of missiles the DSP constellation finds difficult to pick up.

This entry will be DID’s focus article for the DSP program, and will be updated to cover new developments, contracts, et. al. The latest development involves a contract to Northrop Grumman Space Technology to support the DSP spacecraft…

• The DSP Satellites [NEW]
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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Patriot system
(click for explanation)

DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. The USA’s Patriot anti-air missile system offers an advanced backbone for medium-range air defense, and short-range ballistic missile defense, to America and its allies. This article covers domestic and foreign request and contracts for Patriot systems. It also compiles information about the engineering service contracts that upgrade these systems, integrate them with others, and ensure that they continue to work.

The Patriot missile franchise’s future appears assured. At present, 12 nations have chosen it as a key component of their air and missile defense systems: the USA, Germany, Greece, Japan, Israel, Kuwait, The Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan and the UAE. Poland, Qatar, and Turkey have all indicated varying levels of interest, and some existing customers are looking to upgrade their systems.

New material is in green type to make it more visible. The latest additions to our coverage include a continued effort to improve performance and efficiency in supplying spare parts, and the last engineering services contract of FY 2009…

• The Patriot Missile Family
• Patriot Engineering Services Contracts, FY 2004 – Present [updated]
• The USA’s Patriot Programs
• Other Patriot-Related Contracts & Events, FY 2006 – Present [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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ROK Flag

As North Korea prepares for another intercontinental missile test, South Korea continues to modernize its forces and take steps toward full sovereign control of its defenses. “Raytheon Begins SAM-X/Patriot Missile Work in South Korea” described one new piece of the ROK’s defenses. These PAC-2 GEM+ missiles are expected to be operational in 2010, and fully in place by 2012. South Korea doesn’t appear to be aiming as high as Japan, with its license-produced Patriot PAC-3s and long-range naval SM-3 systems, but medium range SM-2 Block IIIA/B missiles fired from ROKN KDX-III destroyers do offer another limited option for the ROK’s coastal cities.

As countries like the UAE have been quick to recognize, turning a series of point defenses into a cohesive system that can respond in time requires long-range detection, and strong regional command-and-control systems. Now, a key contract has been signed, as South Korea prepares to field its Air and Missile Defense Cell (AMD-Cell) radars and command system…

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Mi-17V5, Venezuela
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Augusta-Bell 212 and 412 twin-Hueys currently form the mainstay of Saudi Arabia’s current helicopter fleet. The RSAF also includes a squadron of AH-64A Apache attack helicopters, some S-70A-1L Black Hawks with desert modifications, AS365F Dauphins in naval attack and SAR variants, AS532 Cougar SAR aircraft, AS332F-1 Super Pumas, Bell 406CS combat scouts, and a few Kawasaki/Boeing KV-107s (CH-46 Sea Knight variant) used in MEDEVAC roles. In July 2006, “The 2006 Saudi Shopping Spree: “More Helicopters from Eurocopter” reported a tentative agreement for up to 132 helicopters: 54 NH90 TTH troop transports, 10 NH90 NFH naval, 32 AS 550 Fennec light helicopters, 20 AS 532-A2 Cougar CSAR helicopters, 4 AS 565 Panther naval CSAR helicopters, and 12 Tiger attack helicopters.

In October 2007, Defense-Aerospace, who announced the original agreement, announced that it has fallen through and been supplanted by a $2.2 billion Russian order. The expected French order has indeed been missing ever since, but reports of the claimed Russian order were also absent – until now…

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THAAD: In flight
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The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system is a long-range, land-based theater defense weapon that acts as the upper tier of a basic 2-tiered defense against ballistic missiles. It’s designed to intercept missiles during late mid-course or final stage flight, flying at high altitudes within and even outside the atmosphere. This allows it to provide broad area coverage against threats to critical assets such as population centers and industrial resources as well as military forces, hence its previous “theater (of operations) high altitude area defense” designation.

This capability makes THAAD different from a Patriot PAC-3 or the future MEADS system, which are point defense options with limited range that are designed to hit a missile or warhead just before impact. The SM-3 Standard missile is a far better comparison, but the SM-3 is a naval counterpart and could offer positioning advantages or disadvantages depending on the area to be defended. An ideal multi-layered anti-ballistic missile system should have both land and naval options, as well as theater-level and point defenses backed by a 3rd tier of longer ranged midcourse-defense missiles (q.v. GBI) and/or space-based weapons that can hit the missile during its boost phase.

This is DID’s FOCUS article covering the THAAD system, and newer items will be indicated in green type as a reader convenience. The latest news involves potential changes to THAAD that could make it much more competitive with Raytheon’s new land-based SM-3 offering…

• The THAAD System: Further Details (i.e. “Continue reading…”) [updated]
• The THAAD Program
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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