PAF F-16A drops Mk.82s
(click to view full)

On June 28/06, the US DSCA notified Congress via a series of releases of its intention to provide Pakistan with a $5.1 billion Foreign Military Sales package to upgrade the F-16s that serve as the PAF’s top of the line fighters. Some of these items had been put on hold following the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan & Kashmir, but the request for 36 new F-16 Block 50/52s is now going ahead following the required 30-day review period, along with new weapons, engine modifications, 60 F-16 upgrade kits that would cover Pakistan’s older F-16 A/Bs plus other aircraft it might buy second-hand, and related equipment.

These items are detailed below… along with controversies the proposed sales have created, and some of the conditions attached to the sale by the US government. Another piece of the contract has gone through via engineering change and support purchases.

• Item 1: 36 New F-16 Block 50/52s – $3 billion
• Item 2: Weapons for the New F-16s – $650 Million
• Item 3: F-16A/B Mid-Life Update Modification Kits – $1.3 billion
• Item 4: F-16A/B Engine Modifications & UP/STAR – $151 Million
• Deal Updates and Progress [updated]
• Potential Controversies (July 5, 2006)
  
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F/A-18F over CV-63
(click to view full)

DID has covered the recent controversies over Australia’s involvement in the F-35 Lightning II program, amid criticisms that the F-35A will be unable to compete with proliferating SU-30 family aircraft in the region, lacks the required range or response time, and will either be extremely expensive at $100+ million per aircraft in early (2013-2016) production, or will not be available until 2018 or later. The accelerated retirement of Australia’s 22 long-range F-111s in 2010 has sharpened the timing debate in particular, with a recently retired Air Vice-Marshal and the opposition (now governing) Labor Party both weighing in with criticisms and alternative force proposals.

In December 2006, The Australian reported that Defence Minister Brendan Nelson was discussing an A$ 3 billion (about $2.36 billion) purchase of 24 F/A-18F Block II Super Hornet aircraft around 2009-2010. A move that came as “a surprise to senior defence officials on Russell Hill”; but is now an official purchase as requests and contracts work their way through.

The latest items include the new Labor government’s decision to keep the Super Hornet purchase – though they may not all be F/A-18Fs…

• RAAF Super Hornets: Variants and Variances
• Contracts & Key Events
• Additional Readings
  
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Sea Harriers, F/A-18F
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Covering a potential aircraft carrier gap isn’t India’s only naval air issue these days. In response to a Lok Sabha (lower house of Parliament) question, India’s Defence Minister Shri A K Antony said:

“The Indian Navy is facing shortage of Sea Harrier aircraft. The ongoing upgrade of Sea Harrier programme has also temporarily affected the availability of the aircraft. Contract for the limited upgrade of Sea Harrier aircraft was concluded with M/s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited in March 2005 at a cost of Rs. 476.69 crore [DID: about $109.8 million at the time]. The upgradation programme is expected to be completed by 2009.”

India’s Sea Harrier Mk51s are old aircraft, predating the AV-8B+ Harrier IIs currently flown by the US Marines and Italian Navy, and their British GR7/GR9 or Spanish EA-8B counterparts. The V/STOL Sea Harrier fighters were inducted in 1983, with 25 used for operational flying and the remaining 5 as trainers. The current fleet reportedly stands at 13 as of December 2007, due to 17 crashes over the aircrafts’ service lifetime (a known hazard for Harriers). With only 13 aircraft on hand, cycling aircraft in for lengthy upgrades without disrupting already-low fleet numbers becomes a challenge. The current upgrade program will involve new IAI Elta EL/M-2032 multi-mode fire control radars, RAFAEL’s Derby short-medium range air-air missiles, plus combat maneuvering flight recorders and digital cockpit voice recorders.

Tejas LCA
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India’s fighter strength has been declining in recent years, as the MiG-21s that form the largest component of its fleet are lost in crashes, or retired due to age and wear. Some MiG-21s are being modernized to MiG-21bis ‘Bison’ configuration, just as other current fighter types are all undergoing modernization programs in order to maintain the fighter force until replacements can arrive. On which note, an ongoing tender will likely see Russian, French, American, Swedish and European manufacturers dueling for a multi-billion dollar, 126+ plane light-medium fighter sale.

This still leaves India without a low-end solution to the twin problems besetting its overall fleet: numbers, and age. The MiG-21bis program adds years of life to those airframes, but that extended lifespan is still quite finite; by 2020, it is very unlikely that any MiG-21s will remain in service. As for the MMRCA program, it may replace some of India’s mid-range fighters – but that still leaves replacement of its MiG-21 fleet as India’s biggest numbers challenge. In this environment, the status of the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) project matters a great deal to the Indian Air Force’s future prospects – and their and confidence in its success matters as they contemplate their immediate procurement buys. The choices made in the LCA’s design will also affect the lightweight fighter’s export potential, which will in turn feed back again into the overall program’s costs and viability for India over its lifetime.

The latest additions to this article include more extensive information regarding the fighter and its performance, an update re: flight testing, and an reported radar offer from EADS. As the article explains, however, the most critical firing tests are yet to come…

• LCA Tejas: India’s Lightweight Fighter, or Just a Lightweight? [updated]
• The Kaveri Engine: Keystone, or Killer?
• Updates and Events [updated]
• Appendix A: DID Analysis & Op/Ed
• Appendix B: Additional Readings & Sources
  
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Tiger HAP & HAC
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A formal contract concerning an HAD version of Eurocopter’s Tiger scout/ attack helicopter was recently signed in Bonn, Germany between Eurocopter Tiger and OCCAR, a French/European organization for armament cooperation. This agreement supersedes the official launch ITP for the multi-role HAD (Helicoptere Appui Destruction) version of the Tiger, signed on December 8th, 2004 by France and Spain. It also set out initial procurement numbers for Spain. This was followed by the French DGA’s official announcement re: the restructuring of its own 80 helicopter order.

Eurocopter’s Tiger had always had a very odd setup in that it came in two seemingly incomplete versions (HAP and HAC/UHT), severely limiting its flexibility. The new Tiger HAD variant helps to rectify this, and has entered a new stage thanks to testing, and ancillary weapons orders from France and Spain…

• Tiger Species: HAP, HAC-UHT, ARH, and HAD [updated]
• Contracts & Related Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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F-16F “Desert Falcon”
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Note: a technical issue in which this story’s database tag was mysteriously changed to a non-public setting may have affected viewing for some readers before it was reported and fixed. This is a problem we’ve had before with our back end, and we’re looking into more permanent fixes that will remove the problem entirely.

The F-16 has become what its designers intended it to be: a worthy successor to the legendary P-51 Mustang whose principles of visibility, agility, and pilot-friendliness informed its design. It is no exaggeration to call it the defining fighter of its age, the plane that many people around the world think of when they think “fighter.” The aircraft’s ability to handle future adversaries like the thrust-vectoring MiG-29OVT/35 and advanced surface-air missile systems is in question, but upgrades have kept F-16s popular and in production.

The most advanced F-16s in the world, however, are not American. That distinction belongs to the United Arab Emirates, whose F-16 E/F Block 60 are a generation ahead of the F-16 C/D Block 50/52+ aircraft that form the backbone of the US fleet and many others around the world. The Block 60 has been described as a lower-budget alternative to the forthcoming F-35A Joint Strike Fighter – and is being treated as such in countries like India and the Netherlands as they contemplate their future fighter needs. The UAE invested in the type’s development, and with that investment comes inevitable fielding, training, and equipping needs. This DID article showcases the F-16 E/F “Desert Falcon,” and offers a window into associated costs. The latest item is a significant weapons request to equip their fleet…

• The F-16E/F “Desert Falcon”
• Contracts and Key Events
• Additional Readings
  
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MBDA Meteor
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As part of its Defense Industrial Strategy, the UK looked at the missile sector in 2007 and concluded that a 50% reduction in “complex weapons” funding was expected over the next 5 years. In response, they set up a joint MOD-industry team, including MBDA (UK), Thales, BAES Underwater Systems Ltd and QinetiQ; and talked to lower tier suppliers such as Roxel, SELEX and Ultra. When the song and dance ended, Raytheon was left without a seat, as “Team Complex Weapons” (MBDA UK, Thales, Roxel, and QinetiQ) was set up to provide for the UK’s future needs. A GBP 500+ million contract for a Loitering Munition Demonstration and Manufacture program would follow, conditionally single-sourced to Team CW.

As a next step, Britain and France have launched a multi-million pound Innovation and Technology Partnership (ITP) focused on materials and components for missiles. The ITP will be jointly funded by the British and French governments and an industry and academic consortium led by arms company MBDA. Total funding is expected to be GBP 10.3 million (about $23.5 million): GBP 2.5 million from the UK MoD, GBP 2.65 million equivalent from the French DGA Armament Procurement Agency, plus matching contributions from industry over the ITP’s 3 year period. In the words of the UK MoD release:

“The ITP has been set up to fulfil joint research needs of UK and France for missile technology, identifying common capability and technology needs and examining emerging technologies for future equipment. The ITP aims to consolidate a future European guided weapon capability by building the technological base and allowing a better understanding of common future needs, and prepare for future cooperative programmes.”

Rafale B
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“Africa: The Next Defense Market Opportunity?” discussed Forecast International’s look at some very specific opportunities in that continent – one of which was Libya. Libyan ruler Muammar Gadaffi has shifted his country from rogue state status in the 1970s and 1980s, to a policy that completely disclosed the surprising progress of their weapons of mass destruction programs and sought normalized relations with the western world. In 2004 the European Union lifted a 1986 arms embargo against Libya, and in 2006 the USA restored full diplomatic relations. Many credit in part the influence of his son Saif al-Islam [BBC interview | TIME article], whose graduate degrees the University of Vienna and the London School of Economics reportedly included work studying transitions from rentier states and dictatorships to free market societies; he is currently working with Michael Porter to this end.

Libya’s military has traditionally been Soviet supplied, alongside some equipment from France. The demise of the Soviet Union, the 1990s drop in oil prices, and Libya’s pariah status all combined to choke military modernization – but Libya’s new political direction, and the rise in oil prices, are changing that. Unsurprisingly, there have been widespread reports in recent days that France and Libya have signed a Memorandum of Understanding covering arms deals worth up to EUR 4.5 billion, including the first foreign sale of the Rafale fighter. Has France learned the lessons of Morocco and Saudi Arabia? Can the Rafale find an export home at last? Will the deals come to fruition? DID reports.

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SM-3 seeker: target!
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A lot has been written in recent years about the improvements in air-air missiles. Short-range air-air missiles (SRAAMs) have received particular attention due to their vastly improved wide-angle seekers, computer processor improvements driven by Moore’s Law, and g-tolerant maneuverability several times that of manned fighter aircraft. Some analysts now believe that close-in aerial combat may at last be threatening to fulfill missile engineers’ old claims of “see, fire, and kill” – a development that would make cheap aircraft with new missiles a very significant threat, if true. Medium range AAM (MRAAM) designs have also made significant strides in performance.

How big are these strides? Normally, hitting a missile either in the atmosphere or in the lower echelons of space requires large mid-course interceptor rockets, theater defense missiles like IAI/Boeing’s Arrow 2 or the USA’s THAAD, or the naval SM-3. But what if all the energy required to get off the ground and moving at speed was already taken care of, line of sight expanded by being at altitude, and the defensive missile could be moved very close to the launcher? If that was true, could you take a shorter-range MRAAM, add enhancements to it and a complementary infared seeker from a SRAAM, and use it as a first line of defense to counter, say, a ballistic missile during its early launch phase?

Raytheon – and the US Missile Defense Agency – think the answer may be “yes.” Hence the program called NCADE, the Network Centric Airborne Defense Element… and its potential may be even greater than its sponsors have considered. Now, it also has a successful test under its belt.

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AIM-120C from F-22A
(click for test missile zoom)

AMRAAM was designed with the lessons of Vietnam in mind, and of local air combat exercises like ACEVAL and Red Flag.

One of the key lessons learned from Vietnam was that a fighter would be likely to encounter multiple enemies, and would need to launch and guide several missiles at once in order to ensure its survival. This had not been possible with the AIM-7 Sparrow, a “semi-active radar homing” missile which required a constant radar lock on one target. In addition, enemy fighters were capable of launching missiles of their own. Pilots who weren’t free to maneuver after launch would often be forced to “break lock” or be killed – sometimes even by a short-range missile fired during the last phases of their enemy’s approach. Since fighters that could carry radar-guided missiles like the AIM-7 tended to be larger and more expensive, and the Soviets were known to have far more fighters overall, this was not a good trade.

Enter AMRAAM – the AIM-120 Advanced, Medium-Range Air to Air Missile. This focus article covers successive generations of AMRAAM missiles, international contracts and key events from 2006 onward, and even some of its emerging competitors. New materials will be highlighted in green type. The most recent additions involve a request from Israel for 200 AIM-120C-7s, and a pair of minor contracts for missile components…

• Some MRAAM History, and AMRAAM’s Design Approach (ie. Continue reading…)
• AMRAAM: Upgrades & Derivatives
• AMRAAM’s International Competitors
• AMRAAM: Contracts & Key Events
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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