F-35A: incoming…
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The F-35 Lightning II is a major multinational program which is intended to produce an “affordably stealthy” multi-role strike fighter that will have three variants: the F-35A conventional version for the US Air Force et. al.; the F-35B Short Take-Off, Vertical Landing for the US Marines, British Royal Navy, et. al.; and the F-35C conventional carrier-launched version for the US Navy. The aircraft is named after Lockheed’s famous WW2 P-38 Lightning, and the Mach 2, stacked-engine English Electric (now BAE) Lightning jet. System development partners included The USA & Britain (Tier 1), Italy and the Netherlands (Tier 2), and Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Turkey (Tier 3), with Singapore and Israel as “Security Cooperation Partners.” Now the challenge is agreeing on production phase membership and arrangements, to be followed by initial purchase commitments around 2008-2009.

This updated article has expanded to feature more detail regarding the $300 billion F-35 program, including other contracts as well as notable events. New material is highlighted by putting it in green type. Recent news include an investigation by the Fort Worth Star-Telegram into JET’s conclusions regarding program delays, Lockheed Martin’s response, and a Rolls Royce contract for production LiftSystem engine modules…

• The F-35 Family of Aircraft (i.e. “Continue reading…”)
• F-35 Program: Production Timelines & Structure
• F-35 Program: Controversies and Competitions
• F-35 Program: Events & Developments, CY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: System Development & Production Contracts, FY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: Ancillary and Sub-contracts, FY 2009 – 2010 [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
  
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Adm. Gorshkov: Before.
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This free-to-view DID Spotlight article offers an in-depth look at India’s troubled attempt to convert and field a full-size aircraft carrier, before time and wear force it to retire its existing naval aviation and ships.

Right now, there are 2 major concerns in India. One is slipping timelines. INS Viraat was scheduled to retire in 2009. It’s only semi-operational, and nearing the limits of its mechanical life, even as shortages of flyable Sea Harrier fighters are creating issues of their own. Meanwhile, the delivery date for India’s locally-built 37,000t escort carrier project appears to be slipping to 2015 or so. This leaves India’s Navy with a serious scheduling problem, and no significant carrier force.

The other concern involves Vikramaditya’s 3-fold cost increase, including worries that Russia will raise it rates yet again once India is deeper into the commitment trap. The carrier purchase has now become the subject of high level diplomacy, involving a shipyard that can’t even execute on commercial contracts. An agreement in principle reportedly exists, but negotiations that began in 2007 have yet to lead to a revised contract.

Recent Russian demands have continued to raise the price, even as advance work related to India’s new MiG-29K naval fighters continues. The latest news is a report that India is expressing interest in buying one of Britain’s 65,000t CVF carriers, as negotiations with Russia remain stalled…

• Waiting for Gorshkov – A History
• Gorshkov-Vikramaditya: Aerial Complement
• INS Vikramaditya: Updates & Contracts [updated]
• Appendix A: Additional Readings – Equipment Profiles
• Appendix B: Additional Readings – Related Developments
  
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A400M rollout, Seville
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Airbus’ A400M is a EUR 20+ billion program that aimed to repeat Airbus’ civilian successes in the military market. A series of smart design decisions were made around capacity (35-37 tonnes/ 38-40 US tons, large enough for survivable armored vehicles), extensive use of modern materials, multi-role capability as a refueling tanker, and a multinational industrial program; all of which leave the aircraft well positioned to take overall market share from Lockheed Martin’s C-130 Hercules. If the USA’s C-17 is allowed to go out of production, the A400M would also have a strong position in the strategic transport market, with only Russian IL-76 and AN-124 aircraft as competition. To date, 184 orders have been placed by Germany (60), France (50), Spain (27), Britain (25), Turkey (10), South Africa (8), Belgium (7), Malaysia (4), and Luxembourg (1); and Chile has expressed an unfinalized interest in 3 planes.

Right now, the firm’s biggest issue is timing. In November 2007, “Airbus A400M Program Delayed 6-12 Months” covered ongoing issues with Airbus’ new military transport. Those issues escalated, and project is currently under moratorium as all parties decide what to do. Cancellation is not a realistic contractual option for most customers, but late deliveries can be refused, giving both Airbus and its customers negotiating leverage in talks.

This DID Spotlight article covers the latest developments as the A400M project slides toward production. A key multinational agreement has now extended the program’s moratorium, but South Africa has pulled out, and Malaysia is announcing major delays…

• The A400M Program: A Snapshot
• The A400M Program: Airbus’ Dilemmas
• Updates & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
  Continue Reading… »

F-16B & X-35
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In an exclusive June 2006 interview, Israeli Air Force (IAF) chief procurement officer Brigadier-General Ze’ev Snir told Israel’s Globes publication that the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter was a key part of their IAF recapitalization plans, and that Israel intends to buy over 100 of the fighters to replace their F-16s over time. A 100-plane deal would have cost at least $5 billion under Israel’s original estimates, and would involve the F-35A conventional take-off Air Force version. Snir added that:

“The IAF would be happy to equip itself with 24 F-22s but the problem at this time is the US refusal to sell the plane, and its $200 million price tag.”

Unfortunately, Israel’s September 2008 request for its first 75 F-35s would end up costing them an estimated $15 billion – or about $200 million per plane. All in return for a fighter with poorer air-to-air performance than the F-22, and less stealth. The necessary contract must deal with that sticker shock, and with issues like the incorporation of Israeli technologies, before it can be signed. The latest news is that Israel may forego its own weapons and technologies, in order to curtail a $130 million price tag – and may decide to delay its F-35 purchase by 2 years…

• F-35 for Israel: Key Issues
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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F136 Prototype
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In January 2006, “Reports: Cuts on the way to F-35 JSF R&D, Engine Programs” covered Pentagon attempts to remove FY 2007 funding from the F-35 Lightning II’s second engine option, the GE/ Rolls Royce F136. As predicted, protests from fellow Tier 1 partner Britain followed at the highest levels of government. Many in the US Congress, meanwhile, were openly skeptical of handing Pratt & Whitney’s F135 engine the keys to the entire F-35 fleet. In the end, the Pentagon’s argument that low program risk made R&D spending on F136 development a waste, failed. Congress re-inserted funding, and F136 development has continued on schedule.

Fast forward to the FY 2008 budget. For the second year in a row, the Pentagon removed funding for the GE/RR F136, arguing that killing the F136 would free up $1.8 billion. Politicians disagreed, and the USA’s GAO auditors backed them up. Funding was reinstated. Again. So far, that process has been repeated every year. Now it’s 2009, and the 2010 budget is in progress. Once again, the USAF is trying to kill the F136.

This time, there’s lukewarm Senate support for the Pentagon – but strong House of Representatives opposition, which was recently reiterated as cost estimates for the incumbent F135 engine rise 24%, and reports of other issues surface. The latest developments include reinsated funding in the signed FY 2010 defense budget, and the need for a minor engine part redesign by the F136 team after a testing failure…

• The F136 Program
• The F136: Detractors and Defenders
• Updates and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
  Continue Reading… »

French Mirage F1s
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Morocco’s combat air force currently flies 2 squadrons of old F-5s, and 2 squadrons of only slightly newer Mirage F1s; T-37 light jets serve as key transitional trainers. Their neighbor and rival Algeria flies MiG-23s of similar vintage, but the Force Aerienne Algerienne also flies SU-24 Fencer and SU-25 Frogfoot strike aircraft, even more modern and capable MiG-29s, and is set to receive multi-role SU-30MKs as part of a multi-billion dollar weapons deal with Russia.

Morocco can’t beat that array. Instead, they’re looking for replacement aircraft that will prevent complete overmatch, and provide a measure of security. Initially, they looked to France. France’s Rafale is part of a set of European 4+ generation fighters that were developed and fielded during the 1990s-early 21st century, with the aim of surpassing existing offerings among America’s “teen series” fighters, as well as Russia’s Mig-29 Fulcrum and SU-27/30 Flanker family. “Dogfight at the Casbah: Rafale vs. F-16” discussed the French sales slip-ups that cost Dassault its first export order for the 4+ generation fighter. That outcome is now official.

Just to make things worse, the final multi-billion dollar deal involves new-build F-16s, at a price comparable to the rumored figures for the Rafale. Not to mention an accompanying American deal to replace Morocco’s T-37 trainer fleet with T-6Cs, and contracts for air-launched weapons, targeting pods, and C-27J short-haul transports. The latest development includes a DSCA request for CH-47D helicopters…

• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Why The F-16? DID Analysis – Dec. 2007
• Additional Readings
  
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Used to be ours…
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Back in 1991, Canada’s Mulroney government sold the country’s CH-47 Chinook medium-lift helicopter fleet to the Dutch. They cost a lot to maintain and operate, and Canada didn’t need them anyway. Or so they thought. Fast forward to 2002, then 2006. Canada has had boots on the ground in Afghanistan for several years now, but doesn’t have any helicopters capable of operating in the hot and/or high-altitude environment of southern Afghanistan. To support its 2,000 or so troops in Afghanistan, Canada has to rely on favors from US, British, Australian, Polish, and – irony of ironies – Dutch pilots flying CH-47 Chinooks.

Even so, Canada’s “emergency” purchases for Operation Archer never included helicopters. It should have come as a relief, therefore, to learn in June 2006 that the Canadian government had announced a CDN$ 4.7 billion program to purchase 16 “medium-heavy” helicopters for military and “disaster response” roles. It should have, but it didn’t. It took 21 months after this helicopter program was announced before a sole-source RFP was even issued.

DID explains the Afghan situation on the ground for Canadian forces, the RFP, the options, the problems, the ultimatum issued by Canada’s Parliament, and the contract(s). As Canada’s August 2009 CH-47F buy moves forward, the latest addition is an order for the helicopters’ surveillance turrets…

• Cemetary Sideroad: On the Ground in Afghanistan
• Bring It All Back: The New Helicopter Competition
• Looking for a Place to Happen: The Problem
• We’ll Go Too: Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Escape Is at Hand for the Travellin’ Man: Additional Readings & Sources

Turkish M-60T Sabra
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Global weapon sales are always subject to political influences. For many years, Turkey and Israel have maintained a close defense relationship that extended to training in Turkey and large procurement deals. Turkey’s $688 million buy of Israeli upgrades to create 170 M-60T “Sabra” tanks will remain the high-end backbone of its armored corps, until its new Leopard 2A4s are operational. Over 50 of its F-4 Phantom jets received the $700 million Israeli “F-4E Terminator 2020” upgrade to extend their competitiveness and service lives. They’re joined by Israeli drones like the Harpy radar killer, Searcher-II, Aerostar, and larger Heron UAVs that serve with Turkish forces.

The risk of Turkey’s Islamist AKP party has complicated that relationship, and recent cancellation of the Turkish/ American/ Israeli exercise Anatolia Eagle was followed just days later by the announcement of defense relationships and planned military exercises with Syria. Observers are reacting with varying levels of alarm to these developments, but some clear signals are evident in the defense trade. Defense News’ “Israel-Turkey Rift Derails Defense Trade” discusses some of the impacts, which are serious. They include changed status in Israel for any Turkish defense equipment or support requests, and a likely dearth of such requests on the Turkish end while the AKP remains in power. Defense News’ sources do say that the last 20 M-60Ts will be finished, and that the Heron UAV contract is still a go at this point – albeit with a more powerful engine to accommodate the extra weight of Turkish electronics.

PAF F-16A drops Mk.82s
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On June 28/06, the US DSCA notified Congress via a series of releases of its intention to provide Pakistan with a $5.1 billion Foreign Military Sales package to upgrade the F-16s that serve as the PAF’s top of the line fighters. Some of these items had been put on hold following the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan & Kashmir, but the request for 36 new F-16 Block 50/52s is now going ahead following the required 30-day review period, along with new weapons, engine modifications, 60 F-16 upgrade kits that would cover Pakistan’s older F-16 A/Bs plus other aircraft it might buy second-hand, and related equipment.

These items are detailed below, along with controversies the proposed sales have created, and some of the conditions attached to the sale by the US government. By the end of July 2008, Pakistan was expected to have its first 10 planes. The first new-build F-16, on the other hand, just had its acceptance ceremony this month…

• Item 1: 36 New F-16 Block 50/52s – $3 billion
• Item 2: Weapons for the New F-16s – $650 Million
• Item 3: F-16A/B Mid-Life Update Modification Kits – $1.3 billion
• Item 4: F-16A/B Engine Modifications & UP/STAR – $151 Million
• Deal Updates and Progress [updated]
• Potential Controversies (July 5, 2006)
  
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In November 2005, “Taiwan Orders F-16 Training in USA, But Larger Defense Buys Remain in Limbo” described the gridlock that had hampered key weapons sales of P-3 maritime patrol aircraft, Patriot PAC-3 missiles, and diesel-electric submarines to Taiwan – in some cases, since 1997. The opposition KMT party’s flip-flops and determined stalling tactics eventually created a crisis in US-Taiwan relations, which finally soured to the point that the USA refused a Taiwanese request for F-16C/D aircraft.

That seems to have brought things to a head. Most of the budget and political issues were eventually sorted out, and after a long delay, some major elements of Taiwan’s requested modernization program appear to be moving forward: P-3 maritime patrol aircraft, Patriot missile upgrades; and requests for AH-64D attack helicopters, E-2 AWACS planes, and missiles for defense against aircraft, ships, and tanks. These are must-have capabilities when facing a Chinese government that has vowed to take the country by force, and is building an extensive submarine fleet, a large array of ballistic missiles, an upgraded fighter fleet, and a number of amphibious-capable divisions.

Chinese pressure continues to stall some of Taiwan’s important upgrades, including diesel-electric submarines and American fighter jets. Meanwhile, upgrades to its Patriot air and missile defense systems continue…

Continue Reading… »