Patriot PAC-2
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A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the infamous NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1]. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create havoc in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

In June 2008, over $10 billion worth of December 2007 Patriot missile upgrade requests in the UAE and Kuwait shone a spotlight on the region’s new defense priorities. In December 2008, a multi-billion dollar Patriot missile contract from the UAE seemed to lock in that shift, and Kuwait is proceeding with upgrades to its own Patriot systems. Upgrades that have led to recent contracts, and sales requests…

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F-35A: incoming…
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The F-35 Lightning II is a major multinational program which is intended to produce an “affordably stealthy” multi-role strike fighter that will have three variants: the F-35A conventional version for the US Air Force et. al.; the F-35B Short Take-Off, Vertical Landing for the US Marines, British Royal Navy, et. al.; and the F-35C conventional carrier-launched version for the US Navy. The aircraft is named after Lockheed’s famous WW2 P-38 Lightning, and the Mach 2, stacked-engine English Electric (now BAE) Lightning jet. System development partners included The USA & Britain (Tier 1), Italy and the Netherlands (Tier 2), and Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Turkey (Tier 3), with Singapore and Israel as “Security Cooperation Partners.” Now the challenge is agreeing on production phase membership and arrangements, to be followed by initial purchase commitments around 2008-2009.

This updated article has expanded to feature more detail regarding the $300 billion F-35 program, including other contracts as well as notable events. New material is highlighted by putting it in green type. Recent news include an investigation by the Fort Worth Star-Telegram into JET’s conclusions regarding program delays, Lockheed Martin’s response, and a Rolls Royce contract for production LiftSystem engine modules…

• The F-35 Family of Aircraft (i.e. “Continue reading…”)
• F-35 Program: Production Timelines & Structure
• F-35 Program: Controversies and Competitions
• F-35 Program: Events & Developments, CY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: System Development & Production Contracts, FY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: Ancillary and Sub-contracts, FY 2009 – 2010 [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
  
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Adm. Gorshkov: Before.
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This free-to-view DID Spotlight article offers an in-depth look at India’s troubled attempt to convert and field a full-size aircraft carrier, before time and wear force it to retire its existing naval aviation and ships.

Right now, there are 2 major concerns in India. One is slipping timelines. INS Viraat was scheduled to retire in 2009. It’s only semi-operational, and nearing the limits of its mechanical life, even as shortages of flyable Sea Harrier fighters are creating issues of their own. Meanwhile, the delivery date for India’s locally-built 37,000t escort carrier project appears to be slipping to 2015 or so. This leaves India’s Navy with a serious scheduling problem, and no significant carrier force.

The other concern involves Vikramaditya’s 3-fold cost increase, including worries that Russia will raise it rates yet again once India is deeper into the commitment trap. The carrier purchase has now become the subject of high level diplomacy, involving a shipyard that can’t even execute on commercial contracts. An agreement in principle reportedly exists, but negotiations that began in 2007 have yet to lead to a revised contract.

Recent Russian demands have continued to raise the price, even as advance work related to India’s new MiG-29K naval fighters continues. The latest news is a report that India is expressing interest in buying one of Britain’s 65,000t CVF carriers, as negotiations with Russia remain stalled…

• Waiting for Gorshkov – A History
• Gorshkov-Vikramaditya: Aerial Complement
• INS Vikramaditya: Updates & Contracts [updated]
• Appendix A: Additional Readings – Equipment Profiles
• Appendix B: Additional Readings – Related Developments
  
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USAF OV-10
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In August 2007, “Indonesia’s Air Force Adds More Flankers” chronicled its purchase of Russian SU-27SK and SU-30MKK fighters. The Flankers would supplement and/or replace fleets of F-16A/B and F-5E/F Tiger II fighters, whose condition was harmed by a long arms embargo imposed in response to widespread repression and genocide in East Timor.

East Timor became independent in 2002, and the American embargo on military supplies to Indonesia was lifted in 2005. Nevertheless, the effects of foregone maintenance can be lasting, and the experience was firmly etched into Indonesia’s military consciousness. Subsequent incidents, such as the UK’s injunctions against using British-made Scorpion light tanks against Aceh’s separatist revolt, only deepened the determination of Indonesia’s military and political leaders to deal with a different set of military suppliers.

In fall 2007, “Indonesia Signs $1B+ Defense Credit Agreement With Russia” chronicled the next step under that policy. Now Indonesia is looking to replace its fleets of BAE Hawk Mk.53 trainer jets, and OV-10 Bronco forward air control/ counterinsurgency aircraft. Their replacements will reportedly be Russian – and Chinese…

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J-10S
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Pakistan and China have been cooperating for a number of years on the JF-17/ FC-1 Thunder, a low-medium performance, low-cost aircraft that has attracted interest and orders from a number of 3rd World air forces. In November 2009, a long-rumored deal was announced for China’s Jian-10/ FC-20 4+ generation fighter, whose overall performance compares well with the F-16C/D Block 52 aircraft that Pakistan has ordered from the United States.

The J-10 has been reported as a derivative of the 1980s Israeli Lavi project, and reportedly incorporates an Israeli fly-by-wire control base that was transferred in the project’s early years. The change in relations that followed the Tienanmen Square massacre hurt the J-10 project badly, however, forcing the replacement of planned Western avionics and engines with Chinese and Russian equipment. The required redesign was very extensive, affected all areas of the airframe, and took over a decade, amounting to the development of a new aircraft. The first operational J-10 unit entered service with the PLAAF in July 2004.

China has reportedly ordered 100 J-10s to date. The initial Pakistani order is for 2 squadrons, but could expand as technical cooperation and orders increase. The $1+ billion sale represents the J-10’s first export order… but almost certainly not its last.

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Malaysian SU-30MKM
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On May 24/07, a rollout and demonstration ceremony was held for the first 2 Su-30MKM fighters for the Royal Malaysan Airforce (RMAF) at Russia’s Irkutsk Aviation plant. Malaysia flies the F/A-18D Hornet, and was offered Boeing’s F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, but chose the SU-30MKM instead. Their fighter fleet will now consist of R/F-5E/F Tiger IIs (to be phased out), F/A-18D Hornets, MiG-29 Fulcrums (until 2010), and SU-30MKMs. The results from their internal training air combat exercises would be interesting, to say the least.

The original $900 million contract was signed with Irkut Corp. in August 2003, and involves 18 SU-30MKMs. Canards, stabilizers and fins will be manufactured by India’s HAL Nasik under a $25-30 million value subcontract. According to the contracts in place, Irkut was to deliver all aircraft by the end of 2008, but that hasn’t happened yet. Delivery of the final batch is ongoing.

The SU-30MKM is an advanced variant, whose performance involves considerable improvements over SU-30MK/MKK fighters. Malaysia also hopes its maintenance will be an improvement over the MiG-29Ns it has to phase out – and may be about to turn to China for help…

• The SU-30MKM
• The Malaysia Deal: Offsets & Updates [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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Swiss F-5Es
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The F-5E/F Tiger II was a follow-on upgrade to the wildly successful F-5 Freedom Fighter, a low-budget aircraft designed to capture the lower tier of the non-Soviet global fighter market in the 1960s and 1970s. A number of countries still operate F-5s, but the airframes are very old. The Swiss bought 72 F-5E/F fighters in 1976, and another 38 in 1981, for a total of 110 (98 single-seat F5E, 12 two-seat F-5F). Switzerland currently flies about 54 F-5s; A squadron of 12 were leased to Austria while they await their Eurofighters, and 44 others were sold to the US Navy.

While F-5 owners like Brazil, Chile, Thailand, et . al. have opted for comprehensive refurbishment and upgrades, Switzerland is looking to replace 3 of its 5 Tiger II squadrons with new aircraft under its Tiger-Teilersatz TTE program. The new fighters will partner with the 3 squadrons of upgraded F/A-18C/D Hornets that make up the rest of its fighter fleet. An initial evaluation RFP has been issued to 4 contenders, but Boeing’s withdrawal means the selection is now down to Sweden’s Gripen, France’s Rafale, or EADS’ Eurofighter.

Testing is now complete, and armasuisse has issued its 2nd and final RFP. Left-wing opponents of any military in Switzerland are working hard to derail the purchase, and like the 1993 F/A-18 sale, this purchase will face a national referendum. If it isn’t canceled by the Cabinet first. So far, however, the program is moving forward, and final bids have now been submitted…

• The Competition [updated]
• The Competitors
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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Aria’s airship
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In early 209, Aria International, Inc. announced a contract from the Royal Thai Army to provide in-country surveillance and communications solutions and services, for an aggregate purchase price of $9.7 million. The RTA surveillance system consists of a manned airship with military-grade imaging and communications systems, a state-of-the-art Mobile Command and Control Vehicle, and upgrades to existing communications and facilities to receive real-time surveillance data.

Thailand has the questionable distinction of being saddled with the bloodiest Islamist insurgency most people have never heard of. The American export system hindering their order, however, is well known around the world…

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Into that good night
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The 5th-generation F-22A Raptor fighter program has been the subject of fierce controversy, with advocates and detractors aplenty. On the one hand, the aircraft offers full stealth, revolutionary radar and sensor capabilities, dual air-air and air-ground SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) capabilities, the ability to cruise above Mach 1 without afterburners, thrust-vectoring super-maneuverability… and a ridiculously lopsided kill record in exercises against the best American fighters. On the other hand, critics charge that it’s too expensive, too limited, and cripples the USAF’s overall force structure. Meanwhile, close American allies like Australia, Japan and Israel, and other allies like Korea, are pressing the USA to abandon its “no export” policy. Most already fly F-15s, but they’re interested in an export version of the F-22 in order to help them deal with advanced – and advancing – Russian-designed aircraft, air-to-air missiles, and surface-to-air missile systems.

This DID FOCUS Article covers both sides of the F-22 controversies in the USA and abroad, and it will also be updated over time to cover and backfill contracts and events related to the F-22A Raptor program. This article has been restored to full public access, as F-22 program winds down to its end.

Recent updates include significant votes in the House and Senate, which will effectively end American F-22 production. But contracts continue, including a $474.2 million contract for 4 Lot X F-22A aircraft…

• The F-22 Raptor: Key Capabilities
• The F-22 Raptor: Criticisms & Controversies
• F-22 Raptor: Program and Events
  • Events: 2009
  • Events: 2008
  • Events: 2007
  • Events: 2006
  • Events: Pre-2006
• F-22 Raptor: Contracts & Production
  • Contracts: FY 2009 [updated]
  • Contracts: FY 2008
  • Contracts: FY 2007
  • Contracts: FY 2006
  • Contracts: Pre-FY 2006
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
  • The F-22 & Key Components
  • The F-22 Program
  • Official Reports
  • Controversies & Events
    
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B-2 drops JDAM
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DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. The DID FOCUS Article looks at the transformational history of the JDAM GPS-guided bomb program, the ongoing efforts to bring its capabilities up to the level of weapons like Israel’s Spice and Raytheon’s Enhanced Paveway, and the contracts issued under the JDAM program and its derivatives.

Precision bombing has been a significant military goal since the invention of the Norden bomb sight in the 1920s, but its application remained elusive. Over 30 years later, in Vietnam, the destruction of a single target could require 300 bombs, which meant sending an appropriate number of fighters or bombers into harm’s way to deliver them. Even the 1991 Desert Storm war with Iraq featured unguided munitions for the most part; the US Air Force did use some laser and TV-guided weapons like Paveway bombs and Maverick missiles, but they were very expensive and only effective in good weather. If precision bombing was finally to become a reality throughout the Air Force, a new approach would be needed.

The Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) became that alternative, an engine of military transformation that was also a model of procurement transformation. The latest news involves FY 2009-2010 budget updates, plus a $72 million contract for 2,925 JDAM kits…

• JDAM: A History of Transformation (i.e. Continue reading…)
• JDAM: Program & Variants [updated]
• JDAM: Contracts and Key Events, 1996 – Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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