The USA’s GAO is now the “Government Accountability Office” instead of the “Government Accounting Office,” but audits are still its focus and core competence. Since 2001, Pakistan has received about $5.56 billion in Coalition Support Funds (CSF) for its efforts to combat terrorism along its border with Afghanistan, or 81% of all global CSF reimbursements. In geo-strategic terms, keeping Pakistan’s military happy must be the priority, conditional on having reason to believe they have the desire and ability to be effective at carrying the fight to al-Qaeda and Taliban strongholds in Pakistan. On the other hand, the GAO’s report and testimony includes items like:

• More than $200 million for air defense radars submitted and reimbursed under CSF;
• Defense reimbursed Pakistan approximately $55 million for maintenance of the Pakistani army’s MI-17 utility and AH-1 Cobra attack helicopter wings in the border area from July 2006 – Feb 2007, while the Pakistani army was not maintaining them, causing poor readiness rates for these critical assets;
• An average of more than $19,000 per vehicle per month for Pakistani navy reimbursement claims that appeared to contain duplicative charges for a fleet of fewer than 20 passenger vehicles;
• Paying Pakistani navy claimed for boats about half of the time and disallowing others, despite no discernible differences in the level of documentation provided;

Hence the GAO’s recent report and testimony, which looks at the issues in the context of the CSF framework, and expected future requests from Pakistan….

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Patriot PAC-2
(click to view full)

A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the somewhat infamous NIE whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba¹. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create issues in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list. Now over $10 billion worth of December 2007 Patriot missile upgrade requests in the UAE and Kuwait are shining a spotlight on the region’s new defense priorities. Some of those reqests are now becoming contracts…

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Darkest before dawn?
(click to view full)

The USA’s aerial tanker fleet is the backbone of American global air power, but its youngest KC-135 planes were built over 40 years ago. Replacing them is the USAF’s #1 priority, and the initial KC-X phase of 175 operational aircraft amounts to a $35 billion buy. When EADS Airbus and Northrop Grumman’s A330 MRTT was picked over Boeing’s KC-767 on Feb 29/08, therefore, the shockwaves were felt around the world. DID’s members-only Insider article “The USAF’s KC-X Aerial Tanker RFP” offers full coverage of the RFP, the decision, and subsequent events.

The most recent event has sent shockwaves of its own, however, and deserves its own depth coverage. As everyone predicted, the losing firm immediately launched a protest with the Congressional Government Accountability Office. The GAO has no power to compel the Air Force, but the US military usually works to comply with GAO decisions in order to minimize political difficulties. Those difficulties have just increased significantly, however, as the GAO sustains Boeing’s protest and pours fuel on the smoldering discontent among many Congressional representatives. The implications extend beyond the USA’s borders, and into the global defense industry as a whole. Now, the full decision has been released – and the Air Force may be about to try to bull its way through to an award by the end of the year, using the same playbook it tried the CSAR-X helicopter contract…

• The Summary
• The GAO Release
• The Full Decision [NEW]
• The Way Ahead: Analysis [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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Turkish F-16
(click to view full)

The Turkish and US governments signed a letter of offer and acceptance (LOA) on April 26/05 for the $1.1-billion modernization of 117 Turkish Air Force F-16s to a common avionics configuration. December 2006 saw a $635.1 million contract under that framework issued to Lockeed Martin.

The upgrade will create a common avionics configuration for the service’s fleet of F-16 Block 40 and 50 aircraft. More than 200 F-16 aircraft make up the backbone of Turkey’s current fighter fleet. Systems to be integrated on Turkey’s upgraded F-16s include:

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PJ-10 BrahMos
(click to view full)

Back in November 2005, The Hindu newspaper reported that India’s government has given the go-ahead for exporting missiles, and that India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is looking to market several of its products internationally. The DRDO will participate in international expos as part of its marketing strategy, and government officials have claimed interest from African, Gulf and South-East Asian countries. They have also noted, however, that India’s government would be required to approve any foreign sales to specific countries.

The missile systems in question include:

• Trishul (“trident”) short-range surface-air missile (SAM)
• Akash (“sky”) medium-range SAM
• Nag (“cobra”) anti-armor missile; and the
• Indo-Russian BrahMos medium-range supersonic cruise missile, which is primarily designed as an anti-ship weapon but can also perform land attack.

DID describes each of these programs, then adds some analysis that offers insights into these long-running missile programs and their competitive prospects. Updates have also been added, including another milestone from BrahMos, and a potential joint enture with France that could afect a number of existing IGMP and IGMP-replacement programs…

• The Missiles: IGMP set, and BrahMos
• Program Updates [updated]
• Appendix A: India’s Export Prospects – DID Op/Ed Analysis (Dec 1/05)
• Appendix B: Additional Readings & Sources – Related Reports & News
• Appendix C: Additional Readings & Sources – The Missiles
  
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SSN Akula Class
(click to view full)

According to GlobalSecurity.org, India’s ATV (advanced technology vessel) program to build a nuclear-powered submarine began in 1974, and became a serious effort in 1985. The Federation of American Scientists’ December 1996 document “The Indian Strategic Nuclear Submarine Project: An Open Literature Analysis” remains one of the best single open sources on India’s program. Unfortunately, it was compiled over a decade ago and has become rather dated.

Meanwhile, even if one leaves out the problem-plagued Type 091 Han Class nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN) and old, updated-Romeo Type 035 Ming Class SSKs entirely, China’s attack sub force is still projected at about 30 subs by 2010, including 4 Type 093 Shang Class SSN nuclear powered attack subs and 8 Kilo (Project 636) & Advanced Kilo Class (Project 877) diesel-electric SSKs.

A Pakistani paper claims that the Akula-derived INS Chakra will be operational in 2009… but careful analysis raises questions concerning some of that report’s claims.

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“Il n’y a pas de liberte, il n’y a pas d’egalite, il n’y a pas de fraternite sans securite.” —French President Nicolas Sarkozy

In June 2007, “France’s Sarkozy Softening on Defense After Electoral Stumble” covered debate around France’s future armed forces, and apparent backtracks in his campaign position regarding future defense spending. In July 2007, President Sarkozy put together a group that was tasked it with creating a White Paper to define France’s future defense policy. The last time an exercise of this type had been conducted was in 1994.

That group has now returned with its report, and on June 17/08, President Sarkozy made a speech outlining the key elements of that future direction. The decisions made will change the shape of French defense spending, and will launch an attempt to implement an interlocking set of procurement, infrastructure, and political reforms and changes.

Key decisions and statements included…

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Dutch Bushmasters’
first Afghan patrol
(click to view full)

Despite ongoing US procurement of M1151/M1152 Hummers, the retreat from Jeep-like vehicles is accelerating among Western militaries. Insufficiently protected against land mine threats in modern conflict zones, and insufficiently protectable due to inherent design limitations, conventional vehicles like G-Wagens, Land Rovers, and HMMWVs are being replaced in manufacturer lineups and military acquisitions by more protectable truck-based models, or by dedicated mine-resistant patrol vehicles. DID has covered the USA’s ramped-up purchases of M1117 Guardian ASVs, as well as its 15,000+ vehicle MRAP program that includes PVI/RAFAEL Golans, BAE’s RG-31s/RG-33s/Caimans, Force Protection’s Cougars, and Navistar/Plasan’s MaxxPro. We’ve also covered Iraq and Britain’s acquisition of Force Protection’s Cougar variants; Belgium’s buys of Dingo and Iveco Panther vehicles as the mainstays of its future fleet; Bulgaria’s purchase of M1117s; Canada’s emergency buy of RG-31 Nyalas and emergency order for mine clearance vehicles; Denmark’s order for MOWAG Eagle IV vehicles (no longer HMMWV-based like the Eagle III) and Duro trucks; Luxembourg’s Dingo-2 PRV reconnaissance vehicles, Norway and Spain’s emergency procurement of Iveco MLV/Panthers, and the Czech Republic’s November 2007 buy of Dingo-2s and Iveco MLVs. Public tenders for more vehicles will soon be underway in Spain and the Czech Republic, even as nations that were ahead of the curve continue to add to their stocks: Germany’s additional 149 KMW Dingo 2 vehicles, and Australia’s near-doubling of its original order by adding 293 Bushmasters, offer ample evidence of the seriousness with which they view the global trend toward IED land mines in conflict zones.

ISAF, S. Afghanistan
(click to view full)

During the summer of 2006, the Netherlands also adopted Australia’s Bushmaster IMV from Thales-ADI, a dedicated mine-resistant patrol vehicle that has proven itself with Australian forces in Iraq, to strengthen its Uruzgun force as NATO takes on greater responsibility in Southern Afghanistan.

The agreement was concluded in close cooperation with TWO friendly foreign governments, and it has just placed its 3rd order…

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Scorpene cutaway
(click to view full)

India’s submarne fleet currently consists of 16 submarines, about 13 of which are operational. Its Foxtrot Class boats can no longer be counted on, and its U209 derivatives from HDW are unlikely to last beyond 2015. With Pakistan acquiring modern submarines, and Chinese submarine building exploding, serious thought to India’s future submarine fleet became an obvious priority. In 2005, Indian Prime Minister and chairman of India’s Cabinet Committee on Security Manoham Singh confirmed is country’s decision. India would buy 6 Franco-Spanish Scorpene diesel submarines, with an option for 6 more and extensive technology transfer agreements. This is one of the biggest military deals India has entered into with France, and is intended to both modernize India’s submarine fleet and re-start India’s own industrial capabilities.

The Scorpene deal simmered on the back-burner for several years. DID reported that a deal was “close” back in December 2004, but nothing was finalized until late 2005. The cost had been subject to varying estimates over the life of those multi-year negotiations, but the final figure for the first 6 boats is now generally accepted as being about $3.5 billion. DID can offer some additional information about…

• The Deal: Plans & Costs
• The Deal: Contractors & Roles
• The Scorpene Class
• Scorpene Project: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Appendix A: India’s Current Submarine Force, and Rival Navies
• Appendix B: A Final, Nuclear Note
• Appendix C: Additional Readings & Sources
  
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PAF F-16A drops Mk.82s
(click to view full)

On June 28/06, the US DSCA notified Congress via a series of releases of its intention to provide Pakistan with a $5.1 billion Foreign Military Sales package to upgrade the F-16s that serve as the PAF’s top of the line fighters. Some of these items had been put on hold following the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan & Kashmir, but the request for 36 new F-16 Block 50/52s is now going ahead following the required 30-day review period, along with new weapons, engine modifications, 60 F-16 upgrade kits that would cover Pakistan’s older F-16 A/Bs plus other aircraft it might buy second-hand, and related equipment.

These items are detailed below… along with controversies the proposed sales have created, and some of the conditions attached to the sale by the US government. By the end of July 2008, Pakistan is expected to have its first 10 planes.

• Item 1: 36 New F-16 Block 50/52s – $3 billion
• Item 2: Weapons for the New F-16s – $650 Million
• Item 3: F-16A/B Mid-Life Update Modification Kits – $1.3 billion
• Item 4: F-16A/B Engine Modifications & UP/STAR – $151 Million
• Deal Updates and Progress [updated]
• Potential Controversies (July 5, 2006)
  
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