Guam

Past base improvement efforts and other contracts related to the USA’s pacific territory of Guam include construction of an RQ-4 Global Hawk UAV complex for the Pacific Rim, and extensive base improvements/ expansion for Guam’s airfield and harbor. This article will shine a spotlight on contracts related to that territory from the beginning of FY 2007 onward. Military.com offers a broader article detailing the build up; it is useful as a frame for activities to date, and also as a context reference for our ongoing coverage (hyperlink below added to enhance context):

“The 2006 agreement between the United States and Japan to shift 8,000 U.S. Marines from bases in Japan to the island of Guam by 2014 is likely to have more far-reaching implications than just a change of address for some units of the Marine Corps’ III Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF). The move is accelerating the return to prominence of Guam in the U.S. defense posture and fostering a higher level of cooperation among the U.S. armed forces in the Pacific region…. Congress authorized $193 million in military construction funds for Guam in the fiscal year 2007 National Defense Authorization Act, a $31 million increase over 2006 funding. “Guam is likely to see between $400 million and $1 billion in military construction in military construction each year for a period of six to 10 years,” [Guam’s representative in Congress, Madeleine Z. Bordallo] said.”

That has held true…

Swiss F-5Es

The F-5E/F Tiger II was a follow-on upgrade to the wildly successful F-5 Freedom Fighter, a low-budget aircraft designed to capture the lower tier of the non-Soviet global fighter market in the 1960s and 1970s. A number of countries still operate F-5s, but the airframes are very old. While F-5 owners like Brazil, Chile, Thailand, et. al. have opted for comprehensive refurbishment and upgrades, Switzerland is looking to replace 3 of its 5 Tiger II squadrons with new aircraft under its Tiger-Teilersatz TTE program. The new fighters will partner with the 3 squadrons of upgraded F/A-18C/D Hornets that make up the rest of its fighter fleet.

An initial evaluation RFP was issued to 4 contenders, but Boeing’s withdrawal narrowed the selection to Sweden’s Gripen, France’s Rafale, or EADS’ Eurofighter Typhoon. A 2010 suspension of the competition was followed by a measured revival, thanks to the latest budgets – and now, by a provisional winner. No matter who won, though, left-wing opponents of Switzerland’s military would be working hard to derail the purchase. It’s likely to face a national referendum, just like the 1993 F/A-18 Hornet sale. After the current controversy over fighter evaluations runs its course…

• The Swiss Competition: Rationale and Process
• The Competitors
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
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Gripen & S-1000/S340

It’s a small, agile fighter that can take off and land on highways, while carrying the latest technologies and weapons. It does very well against NATO’s best aircraft in exercises, comes with a reasonable price tag, and is built for low lifetime operating costs. Unfortunately, in a world where people often buy your weapons because they want you to be their friend, the cachet of having Sweden in your corner isn’t quite what it used to be when their sailors wore those cool horned helmets. As a result, the JAS-39 Gripen is an excellent, reasonably-priced fighter yet it has been struggling for traction in the global marketplace.

A recent sale to Thailand has expanded Saab’s horizons somewhat, as the Gripen beat out the SU-30s favored by the previous Thai government. Lockheed Martin’s F-16 had been considered the leading contender to replace the RTAF’s 15-25 aging F-5B/Es, given Thailand’s extensive history with that aircraft. Other candidates included Russia’s MiG-29, and France’s Rafale. Saab had a very competitive offering on cost and performance, but in order to win, they had to throw in a very significant “something extra”: their Saab 340-AEW AWACS aircraft.

• The Thai AF and the Program
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Apendix A – Wild Card: Thailand’s Political Situation (October 2007)
• Appendix B – Additional Readings
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Italian Eurofighters

The multi-national Eurofighter Typhoon has been described as the aerodynamic apotheosis of lessons learned from the twin engine “teen series” fighters that began with the F-14 and F-15, continued with the emergence of the F/A-18 Hornet, and extends through to the most recent F/A-18 Super Hornet variants. Aerodynamically, it’s a half generation ahead of all of these examples, and planned evolutions will place the Eurofighter near or beyond parity in electronic systems and weapons.

The 1998 production agreement among its 4 member countries involved 620 aircraft, built with progressively improved capabilities over 3 contract “tranches”. By the end of Tranche 2, however, the 4-nation Eurofighter agreement still had 236 fighters left to go, even as welfare state programs and debt burdens were making that buy difficult to afford. A 2009 compromise was found in the EUR 9 billion “Tranche 3A” buy, and the program has renewed its efforts to secure serious export sales. Their success will affect the platform’s modernization plans.

• Eurofighter: Design & Evolution [updated]
• Eurofighter: Industrial Structure & Orders [updated]
• Tranche 3 and Beyond: Plans & Contracts [updated]
• Eurofighter Orders: What Next? [updated]
• Additional Readings
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JS Kongou

The JMSDF (Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force) is working closely with the USA on missile defense activities. Air Force cooperation has also improved by leaps and bounds, allowing for much closer coordination with the USA in all aspects including missile tracking.

Japanese involvement includes modification and improvements to the SM-3 long-range anti-air/ABM missile. This weapon will form the outer layer of Japan’s ABM system, deployed from its current fleet of 4 Kongo Class AEGIS destroyers. The inner layer will consist of land-based Japan Self Defense Forces PAC-3 Patriot missiles, and together they will form the initial ballistic missile defense for mainland Japan.

• The Equipment
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
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RSAF Eurofighter

In 2005 talks were underway for a Saudi purchase of Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 2 advanced air superiority and strike aircraft from Britain’s BAE Systems – with an important (albeit denied) set of conditions on the Saudi side.

December 2005 saw confirmation that Saudi Arabia had ordered Eurofighter Typhoons, but the 72-plane deal started sinking into the tar sands shortly thereafter. Investigations from Britain’s Serious Fraud Office swirled around a GBP 43 billion oil-for-planes deal from the 1980s called Al-Yamamah (see Appendix A); in return, the Saudis played some hardball of their own. The investigation was eventually called off at the highest levels of government, and later confirmed by the House of Lords. After a period of uncertainty, a contract was finally signed on Sept 11/07. Ironies aside, the price was a bit lower than many expected; even so, it comes with support arrangements that are likely to push the final value quite a bit higher.

This DID Spotlight article covers the Saudi Eurofighter deal, its associated controversies, and related developments.

• Typhoons Incoming: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
  • The Long Road to the Deal
  • Analysis: Effects on the Eurofighter’s Export Prospects
• Appendix A: From Al-Yamamah to Project Salaam
• Appendix B: Saudi Arabia: Dependence & Deployment Options (December 2006)
• Additional Readings [NEW]
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PAF F-16A drops Mk.82s

On June 28/06, the US DSCA notified Congress via a series of releases of its intention to provide Pakistan with a $5.1 billion Foreign Military Sales package to upgrade the F-16s that serve as the PAF’s top of the line fighters. Some of these items had been put on hold following the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan & Kashmir, but the request for 36 new F-16 Block 50/52s is now going ahead, along with new weapons, engine modifications, and upgrade kits for Pakistan’s older F-16 A/Bs. The buy went through, and was accompanied by the supply of 26 older F-16s from USAF surplus stocks.

These items are detailed below, along with controversies the proposed sales have created, and some of the conditions attached to the sale by the US government:

• Item 1: 36 New F-16 Block 50/52s – $3 billion
• Item 2: Weapons for the New F-16s – $650 Million
• Item 3: F-16A/B Mid-Life Update Modification Kits – $1.3 billion
• Item 4: F-16A/B Engine Modifications & UP/STAR – $151 Million
• Deal Updates and Progress [updated]
• Potential Controversies (July 2006)
• Additional Readings [updated]
  Continue Reading… »

Patriot PAC-2

It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Even though Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy, missile and nuclear proliferation is producing reactions. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to responses aimed at reducing that risk. That’s why arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities.

Gulf states recognize that even a lucky conventional missile could wreak havoc if it hit key oil-related infrastructure, or damaged the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence. The spread of nuclear weapons would change the calculus completely. A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary, PDF] believed that Iran’s nuclear program had stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel, were more skeptical. By 2010, that skepticism had spread to US intelligence, which repudiated an assessment that seems set to join the infamous 1962 NIE of no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1].

The Gulf states’ response to these developments covers a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

Land-based SM-3 concept

SM-3 Standard missiles have been the backbone of the US Navy’s ballistic missile defense plans for many years now, and are beginning to see service in the navies of allies like Japan. Their test successes and long range against aerial threats have spawned a land-based version that could prove to be even more important to the USA’s allies.

In July 2008 the US Missile Defense Agency began considering a land-based variant of the SM-3, largely due to specific requests from Israel. Israel currently fields the medium range Arrow-2 land-based ABM system, and eventually elected to pursue the Arrow-3 instead of SM-3s. Once the prospect had been raised, however, the US government decided that basing SM-3 missiles on land was a really good idea.

• EPAA & The SM-3 Option
  • The Rationale for The Switch
  • The European Phased Adaptive Approach
  • Aegis Ashore
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
• Appendix A: Israel’s Possible Rationales

Into that good night

The 5th-generation F-22A Raptor fighter program has been the subject of fierce controversy, with advocates and detractors aplenty. On the one hand, the aircraft offers full stealth, revolutionary radar and sensor capabilities, dual air-air and air-ground SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) excellence, the ability to cruise above Mach 1 without afterburners, thrust-vectoring super-maneuverability… and a ridiculously lopsided kill record in exercises against the best American fighters.

On the other hand, critics charge that it’s too expensive, too limited, and cripples the USAF’s overall force structure. Meanwhile, close American allies like Australia, Japan and Israel, and other allies like Korea, were pressing the USA to abandon its “no export” policy. Most already fly F-15s, but several were interested in an export version of the F-22 in order to help them deal with advanced – and advancing – Russian-designed aircraft, air-to-air missiles, and surface-to-air missile systems. That would have broadened the F-22 fleet in several important ways, but the US political system would not or could not respond.

This DID FOCUS Article covers both sides of the F-22 controversies in the USA and abroad, and tracks ongoing contracts. It has been restored to full public access, as the F-22 program of record winds down to its end.

• The F-22 Raptor: Key Capabilities
  • Raptor, Redux: Upgrading the Fleet
• The F-22 Raptor: Criticisms & Controversies
• F-22 Raptor: Program
• F-22 Raptor: Key Events
  • Events: 2010-2012
  • Events: 2006-2009
  • Events: Pre-2006
• F-22 Raptor: Contracts & Production [updated]
  • FY 2010-2012
  • FY 2006-2009
  • Pre-FY 2006
• Additional Readings & Sources: Key Components, Program, Official Reports, Controversies & Events
  Continue Reading… »