Patriot PAC-2
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Nearly $45 million in PAC-3 upgrades for UAE. (Jan 26/10)

A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the infamous NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1]. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create havoc in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

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CC-130 over BC
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US military has been coming to the realization that its aging aircraft fleet will begin posing serious challenges in the coming years. Canada is currently experiencing similar problems. In 2005, Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Rick Hillier said that “Our [CC-130 E/H] Hercules fleet right now is rapidly going downhill. We know that three years and a little bit more than that, the fleet starts to become almost completely inoperational and we will have to stop supporting operations – or else, not be able to start them.”

The CC-130s are used in a wide variety of roles, from tactical transport to aerial refueling and even search and rescue. The Canadian Forces do not own any other aircraft in a similar class, which makes replacement essential. EADS tried to remain in the running with its Airbus A400M, and other alternatives were proposed, but the specific requirements set by Canada’s Department of National Defense (DND) tended to exclude alternatives. In December 2008, a program worth almost C$ 5 billion got underway to buy 17 of Lockheed’s privately-developed C-130J “Super Hercules” planes.

In this updated Spotlight article, DID can offer additional details regarding the Canadian procurement program, and the thinking behind it; some background that points up the parallels between the issues faced by the Canadians, and the experiences of other air services; and some insight into why the buy took so long, after the C-130J was declared Canada’s preferred choice in an “expedited” process. That initial buy has now added a large fleet support contract…

• The Transports and the Damage Done: Issues With the Fleet
• Live Rust: What To Do Until the New Planes Arrive?
• Bite the Bullet: Canada’s Procurement Approach and Process
• Comes a Time: Key Developments and Contracts [updated]
• Someday: Facing the Future, At Last?
• Appendix A: Are You Ready for the Country – Possible Competitors C-130J, C-130M, A400M… IL-76?
• Appendix B: Walk On – Additional Readings & Sources
  
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F-35 in the spotlight
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The $300 billion F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program could well become the largest single weapon program in modern history. With the next Quadrennial Defense Review on the way, however, tensions are rising for the program amidst claims of funding cuts, and the recent independent JET evaluation that placed the project $17.1 billion dollars over budget, and up to 2 years late. A recent flurry of disagreements offers DID readers both sides of the arguments; we’ll leave readers to make up their own minds.

One notable exchange began with an issue brief from Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute: “Four Reasons for Confidence in the F-35.” That triggered a somewhat acerbic response from another respected analyst, Aviation Week’s Bill Sweetman, who has written books about the F-35. His Dec 2/09 piece “JSF Is Fine, Says LockMart Consultant” outlines his disagreements with Thompson’s brief.

The left-wing CDI is a somewhat predictable member of the critics’ roster. In a similar vein, the sunnier side features Australian Minister Greg Combet, who seems rather more sanguine about his government’s recent billion-dollar commitment. Lockheed Martin has also offered some substantive reasons for optimism, and says testing is behind but progress is ahead of normal metrics at this stage. For full coverage of the F-35 program, industrial arrangements, controversies, and contracts, see the DII FOCUS article “F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: 2009-2010.”

C-17, waiting
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A Washington think-tank has gone so far as to call the planned cancellation of C-17 heavy transport aircraft production “The Dumbest Weapons Decision of the Decade.” With heavy usage that is accumulating fatigue hours far faster than originally planned, the US Air Force is loath to pay $1.5 billion to close the C-17 line – then pay another $4+ billion to re-open if their decision proves to be too hasty. Not to mention the larger $8+ billion economic effects and lost jobs. Still, the cost of its equipment means that funds are tight, and last-minute Congressional earmarks have been necessary to keep the C-17 line going. Concern has also been expressed that by shuttering the line, the USA is effectively handing the global strategic airlift market over to France and Russia; the Airbus A400M and Russia’s super-giant AN-124 would be the only games in town from 2010-2025, or longer.

Worse, there is almost no confidence in the Pentagon’s 2005 Mobility Requirements Study, whose assumptions hadn’t budged from a 2000 study – before 9/11 and the resulting global war saw airlift usage and flight hours skyrocket, before the Army’s Future Combat Systems’ failure to fit into C-130 transports as promised… before a lot of things happened. Now, as the battle in Washington heats up again, DID offers this updated article, readings – and accompanying interactive Excel spreadsheet – as a contribution to the discussions.

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Defense was an issue in the last Australian election. The center-left Labor Party attacked the center-right Liberal Party by citing mismanaged projects, and accusing the Howard government of making poor choices on key defense platforms like the F/A-18F Super Hornet and F-35A Joint Strike fighters. That sniping continued even after Labor won the election, and has been evident in more than a few Defence Ministry releases.

The new government made some program changes, such as canceling the SH-2G Seasprite contract. Yet it has been more notable for the programs it has not changed: problematic upgrades of Australia’s Oliver Hazard Perry frigates were continued, the late purchase of F/A-18F Super Hornets was ratified rather than canceled, and observers waited for the real shoe to drop: the government’s promised 2009 Defence White Paper, which would lay out Australia’s long-term strategic assessments, and procurement plans.

On May 2/09, Australia’s government released “Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century: Force 2030.” DID has reviewed that document, and the reaction to date… including a new ASPI roundup of reactions from around Asia.

• Fast Incoming
• The Highlight Reel
• Additional Readings & Assessments [updated]
  
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DBR testbed, Wallops
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The US Navy’s Dual-Band Radar that equips its forthcoming 14,500t Zumwalt class “destroyers” and Gerald R. Ford class super-carriers replaces several different radars with a single back-end. Pairing Raytheon’s X-band SPY-3 with Lockheed Martin’s S-band VSR in this way allows fewer radar antennas, faster response time, faster adaptation to new situations, one-step upgrades to the radar suite as a whole, and better utilization of the ship’s power, electronics, and bandwidth. Read “The US Navy’s Dual Band Radars” for more.

Rather than using the existing Dual-Band Radar design in new ships, the “Air and Missile Defense Radar” (AMDR) aims to fulfill future CG (X) cruiser needs through a new competition. The winner will actually have 2 deployment opportunities, one of which could be far bigger than the DBR’s…

• AMDR: Opportunities and Challenges
• AMDR: The Contenders
• AMDR: Contracts and Key Events
• Additional Readings
  
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The US Department of Defense has submitted its FY 2010 budget request for $533.8 billion. This is 4% more than the FY 2009 base budget, but that is no longer an apples-to-apples comparison, as explained below. Weapons procurement represents $107.4 billion, or about 20% of the total budget. That put it in 3rd place, behind Operations & Maintenance ($185.7 billion), and personnel costs ($136 billion).

DID offers its readers a collection of links to useful reports and original documents related to the FY 2010 budget request, as well as some relevant outside reactions and testimony. So far, the President’s budget request generally matches Secretary Gates’ April 2009 preview. We will continue to add to this collection over time, and welcome reader suggestions re: useful materials, articles, and analyses via tips@...

• The American Budget Process
• Readings and Sources
  
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By The Heritage Foundation’s Mackenzie Eaglen and Eric Sayers

USN Fleet plan, 2009
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House Armed Services Committee Chairman Representative Ike Skelton [D-MO] recently expressed his concern about the state of the United States Navy, noting that since the Cold War ended, the U.S. ”...forgot that we are a maritime nation. We forgot that lesson of history that only the nations with powerful navies are able to exert power and influence, and when a navy disappears so does that nation’s power.”

In The Heritage Foundation’s Jan 28/09 publication “Quadrennial Defense Review: Building Blocks for National Defense,” we argued that:

“The U.S. has 11 aircraft carriers, and that number should increase to 13 over the longer term. The number of cruisers and destroyers should increase from a projected 88 to 100, and the number of attack submarines should rise from 48 to at least 60. This should be facilitated, in part, by reducing the projected number of littoral combat ships from 55 to 20. Further, the QDR should at least consider recommending that the Navy proceed with DDG-1000 procurement instead of extending the construction of DDG-51 Arleigh Burke destroyers by ensuring that the DDG-1000s will have both air and ballistic missile defense capabilities.”

This article is set within the context of Heritage’s overall QDR recommendations, which were necessarily brief. It expands on the strategic, tactical, and industrial rationales behind the choices that we believe a secure America will require, within the context of Heritage’s belief that America needs consistent defense budgets around 4% of national GDP.

• A Maritime Nation
• An Inherently Uncertain Future
• A Navy for Force Projection
• Building A Global Maritime Constabulary Force
• A Coast Guard for Constabulary Missions
• Maintaining a Viable Shipbuilding Industrial Base
• Additional Readings
  
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The proliferation of micro-satellites is just the start. USAF journals like High Frontier [5/1, PDF] are already talking about nano-satellites, or in civilian parlance “CubeSats.” Their effects could be profound, and will be felt in many ways. San Jose’s Good Morning Silicon Valley covers an Institute for the Future project called The Signtific Lab. The premise, which you’re invited to discuss and build on, is:

”...in 2019, cubesats – space satellites smaller than a shoebox – have become very cheap and very popular. For $100, anyone can put a customized personal satellite into low-earth orbit. And space data transfer protocols developed by the Interstellar Internet Project provide a basic relay backbone linking low-powered cubesats with ground stations, and with each other. Space is open…. What will you do when space is as cheap and accessible as the Web is today?”

DID’s readers have far more background than most in these areas, and are welcome to participate. The exercise is open until end of day on Match 12/09, and readers can sign up to play “positive imagination” [see example] or “dark imagination” [see example] cards, or supplement existing cards with an “antagonism” card (disagree), a “momentum” card (and then what?), an “adaptation” card (introduce a twist), or an “investigation” card (follow-up questions). Remember, as the IFTF reminds participants, “Your forecasts don’t have to be probable. They just have to be possible.”

FAV SU-30MK2
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Colombia’s recent military modernization announcements coincide with the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ release of their Military Balance report for 2009. That report cites Venezuela’s continuing arms buildup in the region, which has triggered corresponding modernization drives in nearby countries, including Colombia and Brazil.

As far back as 2005, “F.I. Looks At Latin American Arms Market, Sees Venezuelan Buildup” covered these developments. The IISS’ 2009 report notes a continuing rise in Venezuelan military spending, and believes that the country will soon add China as a supplier, while pursuing power projection tools like IL-76 strategic transports, their IL-78 aerial tanker counterparts, more SU-30 fighters, and Kilo Class submarines.

Such purchases are certainly in line with Russia’s stated expectations. It remains to be seen how many of these plans might be curtailed by the recession-induced crash in global oil prices, whose rise has fueled Venezuela’s buildup. IISS Military Balance 2009 | Venezuela’s El Universal report.