A $54B UAV Sector from 2006-2016?
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In February 2006, DID published a report from the Teal Group that put the global UAV and missile market at $103.7 billion between 2005-2016. Discussions with the Teal Group pegged the UAV procurement market at 17,976 projected units valued at $12.5 billion, or 12.1%.
Market forecasts are always educated guesses, and they vary. In November 2005, we covered a Forecast International report that placed the UAV market at $13.6 billion from 2006-2014. Now a forthcoming Teal Group market study adds R&D, maintenance, related sensors, et. al. to their total, and estimates that overall UAV sector spending will more than triple over the next decade… to a much higher figure than the ones offered in earlier procurement-only reports.
From $2.7 billion annually, Teal forecasts that annual UAV spending across all areas will rise to $8.3 billion a decade from now, totaling $54-55 billion between 2007-2016 inclusive. The study suggests that the US will account for 77% of the worldwide UAV RDT&E spending (vs. its 67% global defense RDT&E share) and about 64% of the procurement (vs. its 37% overall global share).
“These discrepancies are due to the heavier US investment in cutting-edge technologies, and the marked lag time in such research and procurement elsewhere, especially major aerospace centers such as Europe, said Zaloga. Europe, at about 20% of the worldwide total, is expected to be second largest market and center for high-tech research. The Asia-Pacific region, meanwhile, is expected to be the principal market for UAVs outside the US and Europe, followed by the Middle East.
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While Mid-East country Israel is a global leader in UAV technology, Teal analyst Steve Zalonga clarified that only its local R&D and acquisitions would be included in the Mid-East section. Much larger sales volumes in Europe, Asia, the USA, and elsewhere would be included under those geographies in the forecast.
The Teal Group also forecasts the emergence of a civil UAV market, beginning with internal security organizations and spreading as airspace “deconfliction” and legal access issues are resolved.
See the complete Teal Group release, which includes details and contact information re: the larger studies.
