Despite Problems, SBIRS-High Moves Ahead
Oct 09, 2011 12:14 EDT
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GEO-2 done testing; GEO-1 performing as expected in orbit. (Dec 13/11)
The Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS)-High satellite program is a key component of the USA’s future missile alert system, designed to give maximum warning and monitoring of ballistic missile launches anywhere in the world. The new satellites will replace the existing Defense Support Program (DSP) fleet. Their infrared sensors have 3x the sensitivity of DSP and 2x the revisit rate, while providing better persistent coverage.
Unfortunately, the program has been beset by massive cost overruns on the order of 400%, technical challenges that continue to present problems, and uncertainties about performance. Despite these problems, the U.S. Air Force is proceeding with the program, and has terminated potential alternatives and supplements.
SBIRS – High: Current State
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The SBIRS team is led by the Infrared Space Systems Directorate at the U.S. Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center, Los Angeles Air Force Base, CA. Lockheed Martin Space Systems in Sunnyvale, CA is the SBIRS prime contractor. Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems in Azusa, CA as the payload subcontractor, and Lockheed Martin Information Systems & Global Services in Boulder, CO is the ground system subcontractor.
SBIRS-High GEO are satellites. SBIRS-High HEO (High Elliptical Orbit) are payloads hosted on spacecraft with classified launch dates. At present, 2 HEO are in service, and a 3rd HEO payload is prepping for launch. The first SBIRS High HEO payload was declared operational in November 2008.
The first SBIRS-High GEO satellite was expected to launch in 2010, after significant program delays. SBIRS GEO-1 wasn’t delivered to Cape Canaveral until March 2011, however, and the launch took place in May 2011.
According to US GAO auditors, the SBIRS program has suffered from immature technologies, unclear requirements, unstable funding, underestimated software complexity, poor oversight, and other problems that have resulted in billions of dollars in cost overruns and years in schedule delays. The cost of the program has ballooned from an original $4 billion estimate to over $17 billion. Normally, this kind of performance would produce program cancellation, but the USAF had no alternatives for a mission that must be carried out: early detection of ballistic missiles, and detection of nuclear detonations.
In 2006 the USAF finally began a parallel effort known as the Alternative Infrared Satellite System (AIRSS). AIRSS/3GIRS was intended to ensure that the nation’s missile-warning and defense capabilities could be sustained, even in SBIRS-High failed. It showed early progress, and could have provided a less expensive supplement to the SBIRS-High constellation, but AIRSS appears to have been shelved as SBIRS lumbered forward. By the time 3GIRS began to show progress, SBIRS was beginning to show adequate performance, and was now too far advanced to cancel.
Recent budgets and requests include:
FY 2009: $2.456 billion ($542.4M RDT&E, $1.913 B procurement for 2 satellites, long lead materials, etc.).
FY 2010: $987.4 million ($521.5M RDT&E, $465.9M procurement for 1 satellite, long lead materials for GEO-4 & HEO-4, and integration of HEO-3/4 payloads). Original budget request was for 2 satellites.
FY 2011 request: $1.525 billion ($530.0M RDT&E incl. ground control segment development, $995.5M procurement for GEO-4 satellite, long lead materials for GEO-5).
FY 2012 request: $995.2 million ($621.6M RDT&E incl. ground control segment development, $373.6M procurement for final fabrication of GEO-3/4 and HEO-3/4; final integration, test, and launch of GEO-2; and advance procurement for GEO-5/6).
Contracts and Key Events
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Dec 13/11: Lockheed Martin announces that they’re done with thermal vacuum testing on SBIRS GEO-2. It’s the last of 7 key environmental tests, clearing the way for delivery to Cape Canaveral and launch aboard a Delta V rocket.
Lockheed Martin adds that SBIRS GEO-1, launched on May 7, has completed its initial calibration and testing activities, and “is performing as expected.”
Sept 29/11: Lockheed Martin Space Systems in Sunnyvale, CA receives an $11.9 million cost-plus-fixed-fee and cost-plus-award-fee contract modification “to procure the first set of spares specific for focal plane assembly hardware for [SBIRS-High]... into acceptance tested focal plane units. This effort also includes production of the next set of material necessary to fill a new spares kit, to include at least two new sensor chip assemblies.” The Infrared Space Systems Directorate at the USAF’s Space and Missile Systems Center in El Segundo, CA manages this contract (FA8810-08-C-0002, PO 0026).
DID asked them why a satellite needs spares at all, and they explained that the SBIRS payload assemblies undergo buildup and testing on the ground, before launch. If a primary part fails during this testing, the program would be in trouble without qualified spares, because they take a long time to build (long lead-time item). Having a spare available reduces risks to the overall satellite production schedule, because an acceptance-tested focal plane unit, or other available spare, can just be swapped in.
Sept 26/11: Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co. in Sunnyvale, CA received a $94.8 million cost-plus-award-fee contract modification, exercising 2 options that deliver SBIRS-High logistics and sustainment support in FY 2012. Work will be performed in Boulder, CO at the Space and Missile Systems Center. The SBIRS Directorate at Los Angeles AFB, CA manages the contract (F04701-95-C-0017, PO 0710).
Sept 26/11: Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co. in Sunnyvale, CA receives an estimated $12.2 million cost-plus-award-fee contract to upgrade the 2 existing existing highly elliptical orbit (HEO) strings to be capable of operating 2-3 HEO satellites, while maintaining the health and safety of the offline HEO. They’ll use software based on the Interim Test Center’s geosynchronous orbit initial operations software baseline. The SMC/ISK at Los Angeles AFB, CA manages the contract (FA8810-08-C-0002, PO 0033).
July 19/11: Lockheed Martin Corp. in Sunnyvale, CA wins a $24.5 million cost-plus-fixed-fee SBIRS EMD contract modification. This FY 2011 contract covers hardware and software modifications that will lay the groundwork for the overall SBIRS Survivable/Endurable Evolution (S2E2) program upgrade in FY 2012 and beyond.
After some discussion with the USAF Space and Missile Systems Center’s Infrared Space Systems Directorate, we can clarify S2E2’s purpose: it evolves the satellite’s Mobile Ground System (MGS) capabilities from the previous DSP satellite system. The SBIRS program originally planned to develop its own MGS element, but cost growth on SBIRS-High has forced a change of plans to less expensive upgrades of existing systems. Considering the kind of information these ground systems are processing, mobility remains the ultimate defense against pre-emptive strikes that would cut off further missile launch warnings. The S2E2 modification will become part of the program of record’s baseline, and will be reported in documents like the Pentagon’s Selected Acquisition Reports.
Lockheed Martin will pick a FY 2011 antenna platform subsystems vendor, and support the SBIRS program with a mobile ground system 2nd path radio upgrade, as well as FY 2011 S2E2 engineering and labs development. Work will be performed in Boulder, CO, and is expected to be complete in December 2012. The USAF Space and Missile Systems Center in Los Angeles AFB, CA manages this contract (F04701-95-0017).
June 27/11: Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company in Sunnyvale, CA receives an $8.2 million cost plus award fee contract modification to implement Phases 2-4 of the Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO) Functional Test Article (HFTA) Phase I study. The SMC/ISK at Los Angeles AFB manages the contract (FA8810-08-C-0002, PO 0029).
June 14/11: Layoffs at Lockheed Martin Space Systems. This branch of the firm employs around 16,000 employees in 12 states, but intends to shed 1,200 employees by year-end, including a 25% cut in middle management to reduce impacts elsewhere. LMSS’ Sunnyvale, CA; Pennsylvania; and Denver, CO sites will be hardest hit, and the firm’s release says that it’s pushed in part by several of their major programs moving beyond the labor-intensive development phases.
Space Systems says it will offer “eligible” salaried employees an opportunity for a voluntary layoff, plus career transition support for all affected employees. Lockheed Martin.
May 20/11: SBIRS GEO-1 reaches geosynchronous orbit – passing the damaged but climbing AEHF-1 communications satellite on the way. Initial checkout tests are positive. Aviation Week | UPI.
May 7/11: After weather conditions forced a postponement of the May 6/11 launch, SBIRS GEO-1 successfully blasts off from Cape Canaveral, FL aboard an Atlas V 401 configuration rocket. The 401 configuration consists of an RD AMROSS RD-180 booster, a Centaur upper stage with a PW Rocketdyne RL-10A engine, and a 4-meter payload fairing. USAF | ULA [incl. video] | Lockheed Martin.
April 15/11: The Pentagon’s Selected Acquisitions Report ending Dec 30/10 includes SBIRS High. The program is being expanded, but cost increases haven’t stopped, either:
“Program costs increased $2,459.6 million (+16.3 percent) from $15,115.6 million to $17,575.2 million, to fully fund the fifth and sixth Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) satellites (GEOs 5 and 6) (+$1,883.6 million), plus associated support requirements in fiscal 2018 (+$212.7 million). There are additional increases to complete the Engineering, Manufacturing, and Development (EMD) space segment effort for GEOs 1 and 2 integration, launch, early orbit test, and check out (+$206.8 million), and to complete the EMD ground effort to satisfy the August 1996 Operational Requirements Document requirements (+$717.1 million). This completes the final block (Increment 2) of the SBIRS ground segment capability, which funds fiscal 2016 and beyond, and reflects total acquisition cost. These increases are partially offset by a revision in the acquisition strategy from full funding to a block buy for GEOs 5 and 6 (-$520.9 million).”
April 11/11: Successful completion of spacecraft fueling for SBIRS GEO-1. Its propulsion system is a dual-mode design. It operates as a pressure-regulated bipropellant (hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide) system of fuel and oxidizer for use during orbital transfer, and a monopropellant hydrazine system for use on station.
April 4/11: Lockheed Martin Corp. in Sunnyvale, CA receives a $460.4 million contract modification, which pays to revise SBIRS’ ground development and delivery strategy. Following a successful Preliminary Design Review, Lockheed Martin has been contracted to deliver SBIRS Ground Systems Block 10, whose service-oriented architecture segregates the system into 4 different mission areas. The goal is to improve long term sustainment costs and improve service, using technologies that weren’t available when the original ground system was first approved.
The Block 10 system will process data from SBIRS and from legacy DSP Overhead Persistent Infrared satellites at a single operational control center, and will be fielded at 1 primary site and 1 backup site. Block 10’s new service-oriented I.T. architecture makes independent mission area upgrades possible with less expense and difficulty. It also makes SBIRS data available in a more timely and less costly ways, to a larger community of users, for both real time activities and off-line analysis. That means the USAF can quickly release missile warning and battle space awareness messages to military commanders, and provide other relevant data to intelligence and missile defense organizations.
Work will be performed at Sunnyvale, CA and Redondo Beach, CA. The USAF’s Space and Missile Systems Center at Los Angeles AFB, CA manages this contract (F04701-95-C-0017, P00641).
March 28/11: SBIRS GEO-1 completes its final major pre-launch test. The SBIRS System Test 5001.4 Regression Test demonstrated the ability to transmit data between the spacecraft and flight control facilities, and perform the critical operational functions of the SBIRS GEO-1 integrated ground and space system. USAF.
March 7/11: SBIRS GEO-1 is delivered to Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, FL, on board a C-5 Galaxy superheavy cargo aircraft. It will be prepared for an early May 2011 liftoff aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V launch vehicle. USAF | Lockheed Martin.
Jan 7/11: Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co. in Sunnyvale, CA, receives a $424.7M contract modification, exercising the option for production of GEO Satellite 4. At this time, $75 million has been committed by the US Space and Missile System Center’s Infrared Space Systems Directorate in El Segundo, CA (FA8810-08-C-0002; P00017).
The GEO-3 and GEO-4 satellites will be near clones of the first 2, accommodating small changes such as a different star tracker, inertial measurement unit, and replacing obsolete parts.
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Dec 15/10: The Scitor Corp. in El Segundo, CA won a $29.9 million contract for engineering, consulting and technical advisory support services to the Space Based Infrared Systems Directorate. $1,234,000 has been committed by the SMC/PIK at Los Angeles AFB, CA (FA8802-11-F-3013).
Dec 2/10: Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co. in Sunnyvale, CA receives an $8.8 million contract modification which will add a dual operations capability to SBIRS-High’s existing engineering, manufacturing and development contract. At this time, all funds have been committed by the SMC/ISK in El Segundo, CA (F04701-95-C-0017; P00659).
Oct 15/10: Space News reports that:
“After nearly a decade of delay, the U.S. Air Force tentatively plans to launch its first dedicated Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) missile warning satellite April 30 but faces a narrow launch window, which means any additional hiccups in the program likely would push the mission into 2012, a service official said.
At the same time, the Air Force is renegotiating its SBIRS prime contract with Lockheed Martin Space Systems of Sunnyvale, Calif., to make improvements to the system’s ground infrastructure and data processing algorithms through the latter part of the decade ahead…”
Oct 6/10: The SBIRS GEO-2 satellite successfully completes integration of its 2 equipment panels onto the spacecraft core module, creating a fully assembled and integrated GEO-2 space vehicle. It took 34 days, included 134 precise connector mates between the equipment panels and spacecraft, and finished 9 days ahead of schedule. The equipment panels are responsible for holding the individual electronics components which provide the satellite’s communications, attitude control, power distribution, commanding and payload data processing.
The GEO-2 team will now proceed with Baseline Integrated System Test 2, creating the data baseline needed before environmental testing. GEO-2 is scheduled for launch in 2012. Los Angeles AFB.
Sept 28/10: Lockheed Martin Space Systems Center in Sunnyvale, CA won an $8.3 million contract modification which will incorporate both hardware and software modifications to SBIRS-High’s existing engineering, manufacturing, and development contract. At this time, the entire amount has been committed by the ISSW/PKS in El Segundo, CA (FO4701-95-C-0017; PO0650).
Sept 13/10: The SBIRS ground team completes the GEO Interim Operations Ground Segment System’s integration testing for Missile Warning Message Certification, at the Interim Test Center in Boulder, CO. Given the missile-tracking mission of SBIRS GEO satellites, validating those 853 mission readiness objectives and exercising 594,000 lines of code is a good idea. Los Angeles AFB.
Aug 16-18/10: The USAF Space and Missile System Center’s SBIRS Wing and Lockheed Martin hold a successful critical design review in Sunnyvale, CA for SBIRS GEO-3 and SBIRS GEO-4. The review confirmed that the detailed design has addressed all electronics obsolescence issues from the previous SBIRS satellites, and lets Lockheed Martin move forward into production towards a projected GEO-3 launch in late 2014.
The GEO-3 and GEO-4 satellites will be near clones of the first 2, accommodating small changes such as a different star tracker, inertial measurement unit, and replacing obsolete parts.
July 16/10: Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co. in Sunnyvale, CA receives a $34.8 million contract modification, exercising the 4th option for SBIRS HEO Payload 3 Launch and Early On-Orbit Support. At this time, $548,174 has been committed by the ISSW/PKF at Los Angeles Air Force Base, CA (FA8810-08-C-0002; P00012).
The same announcement was issued again on July 20/10, but that is a duplication.
June 30/10: Researchers in the SBIRS program office at Air Force Space Command’s Space and Missile Systems Center in Los Angeles, CA successfully complete the major “5001.2 system-level test” of the interfaces between all SBIRS ground facilities and the GEO-1 satellite.
The test successfully demonstrated command and control using GEO-1’s Tri-band Antenna/Modem Suite, as well as data transmissions using frequency hopping. A team made up of people from Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, The Aerospace Corporation, and the USAF tested 12 critical areas over 2 days. USAF.
June 7/10: Lockheed Martin Corp. in Sunnyvale, CA receives a $183 million contract, finalizing a set of previous production and ground systems modification contracts for the SBIRS GEO satellite, and SBIRS HEO payload. At this time, the entire amount has been committed by SMC/ISSW at Los Angeles AFB in El Segundo, CA (FA8810-08-C-0002).
June 3/10: Lockheed Martin Space Systems Corp. in Sunnyvale, CA receives a $10.9 million contract which will provide support for SBIRS-High GEO’s message certification. At this time, $2.4 million has been obligated by the SBISW/PK in El Segundo, CA (F04701-95-C-0017).
May 7/10: The National System for Geospatial Intelligence (NSG) announces that the SBIRS HEO-2 payload and associated ground system have been operationally accepted for the Technical Intelligence mission.
The planning, testing and coordination effort leading to this day involved the NSG, Air Force Space Command, and SMC’s SBIRS Wing. The previous SBIRS HEO-1 was certified on Aug 27/09. USAF Los Angeles AFB.
April 1/10: The Pentagon releases its April 2010 Selected Acquisitions Report, covering major program changes up to December 2009. SBIRS-High makes the list, as the planned constellation rises from 4 to 6 satellites, and other program costs continue to rise:
“SBIRS (Space-Based Infrared System) High – Program costs increased $3,561.1 million (+30.8%) from $11,554.5 million to $15,115.6 million, due primarily to a quantity increase of two Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) satellites from four to six satellites (+$2,164.1 million). There were also increases resulting from the realignment of missile procurement costs to the support category (+$162.8 million), a delay in the GEO 1 launch from 2009 to 2010 (+$372.8 million), revised estimates for implementation of a new ground acquisition strategy (+$393.8 million), and incorporation of the technology maturation and parts obsolescence effort (+$384.0 million).”
March 30/10: The US GAO audit office delivers its 8th annual “Defense Acquisitions: Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs report. Summary?
“The SBIRS High program continues to experience setbacks that could add to cost overruns and schedule delays. All three of the program’s critical technologies are mature and 99 percent of the expected drawings are releasable. However, program costs continue to increase due to software development problems, hardware quality issues, and testing delays on the first GEO satellite. Unplanned work continues to be a challenge for the software development effort. The program also recently discovered hardware defects on the first GEO satellite. The Air Force’s best-case estimate is that the first GEO satellite launch will be delayed an additional year from December 2009 to December 2010. The HEO payloads continue to perform well on-orbit, and according to program officials, they were accepted for specific mission operations in 2009…. The SBIRS High program remains at high risk for cost and schedule growth. DCMA is currently projecting over $245 million in cost overrun from the current baseline at contract completion. This amount has more than doubled in the past year and continues to steadily grow…. The program’s management reserve… will likely be depleted before the first GEO satellite launches….”
See also the 2009 annual report, and its SBIRS-related 2007 GAO testimony, referenced in “Additional Readings.”
Feb 16/10: Lockheed Martin announces that the SBIRS GEO-2 satellite has completed its first phase of Baseline Integrated System Test (BIST-1) in Sunnyvale, CA.
With the completion of BIST-1, the team will proceed with final factory work on the satellite and prepare for the final, comprehensive BIST milestone, followed by environmental testing. The spacecraft is planned for launch aboard an Atlas V launch vehicle in 2012. SBIRS GEO-1 is preparing for final integration and test activities that will culminate with final checkout and delivery to the Air Force later in 2010.
Feb 2/10: A Pentagon document [PDF] confirms that 3GIRS/AIRSS is being recommended for cancellation as an “unneeded program.”
Jan 15/10: Reuters reports that AIRSS/ 3GIRS is one of several programs on the chopping block for the FY 2011 budget, based on internal Pentagon documents that were leaked to the news service. With SBIRS GEO late and over-budget, but moving forward, the better-performing 3GIRS program is deemed superfluous.
Dec 1/09: A joint U.S. Air Force/Lockheed Martin-led team announces successful thermal vacuum testing of the first SBIRS GEO-1 satellite inside Lockheed Martin’s Dual Entry Large Thermal Altitude (DELTA) chamber. This completes the last of several critical environmental test phases that validate the overall satellite design, quality of workmanship and ability to survive in space. Lockheed Martin.
November 2009: The Critical Design Review for GEO 3 & 4’s infrared payloads is held at Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems in Azusa, CA.
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Sept 1/09: A $99.5 million modified contract to Lockheed Martin for the existing engineering, manufacturing, and development contract for the SBIRS-High Component. The Space Based Infrared Systems Wing at the Los Angeles Air Force Base in CA manages the contract (F04701-95-C-0017, P00583).
July 10/09: A $262.5 million contract to Lockheed Martin for long-lead time parts and materials used to build the 4th SBIRS-High satellite (GEO-4) and the 4th HEO payload (HEO-4). At this time $137.1 million has been committed by the Space Based Infrared Systems Wing at Los Angeles Air Force Base, CA (FA8810-08-C-0002).
These long-lead effort contracts tend to precede a production contract by a year or more, in order to ensure that required components are already on hand and do not delay assembly.
May 29/09: A cost-plus-fixed-fee contract of up to $1.49 billion to prime contractor Lockheed Martin Space Systems in Sunnyvale, CA for production of the 3rd SBIRS-High satellite (GEO-3, a geosynchronous orbit design), the 3rd payload (HEO-3, a Highly Elliptical Orbit design), and modification of the SBIRS ground systems to accommodate the operation of 3 payloads at the same time.
So far, $1.1 billion has been obligated under the May 29/09 contract. The Space and Missile Center’s Space Based Infrared Systems Wing in El Segundo, CA manages the SIBRS-High contract (FA8810-08-C-0002). See also Lockheed Martin release on the May 29/09 contract.
March 31/09: The US Government Accountability Office auditors release their 2009 Assessments of Selected Weapons Programs. SBIRS – High is one of the programs reviewed, and the report expresses concern about its progress:
“Two of the SBIRS High program’s three critical technologies are mature – a lower level of maturity than last year…. the program has experienced design-related problems, especially with the flight software, and more could still emerge…. Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA) assessments indicate that the contractor’s cost and schedule performance are high risks. DCMA is currently projecting a $103 million cost overrun at contract completion, and that amount is growing. Further contractor cost increases and schedule delays are expected…”
Additional Readings
- Los Angeles AFB – Factsheet: Space Based Infrared Systems
- Lockheed Martin – Space Based Infrared System – High (SBIRS High)
- MissileThreat.com – Space-Based Infrared System-High (SBIRS-High)
- GAO (Sept 12/07, #GAO-07-1088R) – Space Based Infrared System High Program and its Alternative. Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee.
- DID (Jan 17/06) – Lockheed’s SBIRS High Satellite Program Bracing for a Fall
- Space Now (Dec 19/05) – Pentagon Scales Back SBIRS Program
- DID (Aug 4/05) – GAO Report: Satellite Programs Show Overruns Across the Board
- DID (April 15/05) – SBIRS Dilemma: Go High or Go Home
