• Todd Harrison at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) reviews options [PDF] for DOD to handle sequestration. “If this downturn in defense spending is like previous downturns, the FY 2013 budget projection the administration is about to release may prove to be highly optimistic.”

• The US Senate Armed Service Committee’s (SASC) most important hearing this month will take place on Feb. 14 to get started with the FY13 budget and get briefed on the latest FYPD 5-year plans. The March schedule is set to receive testimony by department between March 1st and March 20.

• US Senators representing Alaska Mark Begich [D, SASC member] and Lisa Murkowski [R-] introduced legislation (S. 2073) seeking to prohibit the Air Force from moving an F-16 squadron from Eielson AFB to Elmendorf and wrote to Secretary of Defense Panetta.

• There’s often talk of friction between DOTE (DOD’s Operational Test and Evaluation) and the acquisition community. Case in point of people apparently talking past each other: how can you really assess a whole ship or submarine’s sustainment metrics before launching the lead ship at sea? DOTE wants more data upfront during the IOT&E initial phase while this acquisition officer argues they should settle for modeling and analysis until FOT&E follow-ups.

• We missed this last month: The US Navy’s 2012 update of its naval aviation vision [PDF]. For reference: NAE 2010 [PDF].

• Navistar Defense, Indigen Armor and SAIC are teaming up to bid on the Ground Mobility Vehicle 1.1 (GMV 1.1) program.

• John J. “Jack” Evans [PDF] has been assigned as deputy director, naval warfare (NW) within DOD Acquisition. He was previously PEO submarines at the Naval Sea Systems Command. Darlene J. Costello, Principal Director Strategic and Tactical Systems (S&TS) was also wearing the NW hat until now.

• Robert S. “Steve” Miller is Hawker Beechcraft’s new CEO. Very recently the president of their defense division retired.

• The Canadian Foreign Policy Journal published a special issue [paid content] on the F-35 with headlines that include: “costly mistake”, “Strategically superfluous, unacceptably overpriced.” Please do tell how you really feel.

Latest update (Feb 6/12)

KRI Cakra
(click to view larger)

Indonesia sites astride one of the world’s most critical submarine chokepoints. A large share of global trade must pass through the critical Straits of Malacca, and the shallow littoral waters around the Indonesian archipelago. That makes for excellent submarine hunting grounds, but Indonesia has only 2 “Cakra Class”/ U209 submarines in its own fleet, relying instead on frigates, corvettes, and fast attack craft.

South Korea’s Daewoo, which has experience building U209s for South Korea, has been contracted for Cakra Class submarine upgrades. Even so, submarine pressure hulls have inflexible limits on their safe lifetime, due to repeated hydraulic squeezing from ascending and descending. The Indonesians have expressed serious interest in buying 3-6 replacement submarines since 2007, with French, German, Russian, South Korean, and even Turkish shipyards in the rumored mix. Other priorities shoved the sub purchase aside, but a growing economy and military interest have finally revived it…

• Contending Designs [updated]
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
  Continue Reading… »

• Recently-confirmed US defense acquisition Under Secretary Frank Kendall (pending Senate approval) discussed with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) the implications of DOD’s strategic guidance and what’s coming for FY13. He confirmed he is aiming for continuity from his predecessor and former boss Ashton Carter’s Better Buying Power, and spoke with candor about contracting schemes such as concurrency or fixed-price awards going in and out of fashion at the Pentagon with equal fervor. But it doesn’t seem to matter much whether low-rate initial production is done on a cost-plus or fixed-price basis. In the end, what does really work? On the sign out of Kendall’s door: “In God we trust; all others must bring data.” Audio | PDF transcript.

• Some acquisition requests are more urgent than others. Dealing with pressing operational requirements is what the Joint Rapid Acquisition Cell (JRAC) does within DOD, as well as some offices within the services such as the Army’s PEO-C3T.

• While Frank Kendall was calling F-35 concurrency “acquisition malpractice”, Carl Levin [D-MI] and John MCain [R-AZ] – respectively Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) – sent a letter [PDF] to the Secretary of Defense questioning his decision to take the F-35B off probation. Along with 13 other questions, they want to know whether there are dissenting voices within DOD that might have been ignored to reach that decision. From a much more tactical perspective, the F-35s grounded because of defective parachutes are flying again [PDF] now that the issue has been sorted out.

• The Office of the US Secretary of Defense Comparative Testing Office (CTO) has made a Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) to declare its intention to fund a number of innovative technologies in the tactical realm, from aircrew protection to non-lethal weapons to munition improvements and more. FBO | CTO templates.

• Airlift provider Global Aviation Holdings Inc. is filing for Chapter 11. Press release | WSJ.

• There are rumors that the BAE/Dassault Telemos UAV will be picked for a GBP 1 billion joint British-French program. Unsourced and unconfirmed.

• The U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command is running a survey to get feedback from soldiers about the Improved Physical Fitness Uniform (IPFU), while the Army Medical Research and Materiel Command is to evaluate bioelectric bandages. This looks less painful than it sounds.

Latest update (Feb 2/12)

Galileo concept

The USA’s Global Positioning System service remains free, but the European Union is spending billions to create an alternative under their own control. In addition to civilian GPS (the Open Service), services to be offered include a Safety of Life Service (SoL) for civil aviation and search and rescue, a paid Commercial Service with accuracy greater than 1 meter, plus a Public Regulated Service (PRS) for use by security authorities and governments. PRS/SoL aims to offer Open Service quality, with added robustness against jamming and the reliable detection of problems within 10 seconds.

Organizational issues and shortfalls in expected progress pushed the “Galileo” project back from its originally intended operational date of 2007 to 2014/15. After a public-private partnership model failed, the EU gained initial-stage approval for its plan to finance the program with tax dollars instead of the expected private investments. Political issues were overcome in 2007 by raiding other EU accounts for the billions required, but by 2011, it became clear that requests for billions more in public funds were on the way. Meanwhile, doubts persist in several quarters about Galileo’s touted economic model. Security concerns regarding China’s involvement, and its Beidou-2/Compass project overlap, have been equally persistent. On a European political level, however, Galileo is now irreversible.

This article offers background, players, developments, contracts, and in-depth research links for Galileo, as well as linked EU programs like GIOVE and EGNOS:

• The Galileo Program
  • Galileo: The System [updated]
  • Galileo Elements [updated]
  • Galileo Structure & Costs [updated]
  • Galileo Timeline [NEW]
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
  • PNT alternatives
  • News & Views
  • The Security Dimension
    Continue Reading… »

• Significant drilling has started at Portsmouth Naval Base to allow the UK’s future aircraft carriers in.

• Former US Navy Secretary and DOD UnderSec Gordon England opines: “The base defense budget, somewhat over 3 percent of our gross domestic product, isn’t the problem and can’t be the solution.”

• White House Press Secretary Jay Carney insists Secretary of Defense Panetta and President Obama are on the same page. That is, if you ignore the fact they repeatedly made mutually exclusive statements about whether to proceed with budget sequestration.

• The Congressional Research Service offers a historical perspective [PDF] on the concept of a “hollow force.” They conclude that it can be argued this phrase “is inappropriate under present circumstances.”

• The House Armed Services Committee (HASC) has a hearing scheduled at 3pm ET this afternoon on the contracting and regulatory issues of doing business with DOD, though they didn’t yet announce who will testify. Meanwhile the Defense Appropriation Subcommittee released its hearing schedule [PDF] until the end of March with a focus on the FY13 budget.

• The CSBA think tank is running a survey on military compensation. The Stimson Center likes the idea, Veterans of Foreign Wars, not so much.

• According to Les Echos [in French], defense is going to bear the brunt of budgetary cuts in 2012 that the French government should announce later this week. This in front of a backdrop which might sound familiar: a tepid economic growth forecast and a presidential election.

• The US Army’s Natick Soldier Systems Center is working on making Individual First Aid Kits (IFAK) easier to carry around and use.

• In the video below the GRASP laboratory at University of Pennsylvania gets tiny quadrotors to fly in sync:
  Continue Reading… »

• Latest from the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS): Controlling Costs and Demanding Effective Program Execution [PDF, chart galore]; and a short memo [PDF] on evolving US-India relations. The author reckons India will want to get closer to Iran. The Washington Quarterly preemptively disagreed [PDF].

• Dassault Aviation released the most terse and self-restrained press release ever in the wake of the Rafale’s final selection for India’s MMRCA. The French business press and stock market were less subdued, but it is not a signed contract just yet. More details to come.

• Northrop Grumman reported sales of $26.4B in 2011, a $1.7B or 6% drop from 2010. Its aerospace, electronic and information systems all shrunk by a few percentage points while revenue from the smaller Technical Services dropped by 16%. Among other programs, lower-than-anticipated F-35 deliveries weighted on the aerospace division. The company has revisited the criteria it uses to state its total backlog. This change contributes $3B out of a $7.3B backlog decrease from the previous year, and brings the total down by 15.6% to $39.5B with a 59% funding ratio. NG excludes unexercised contract options and unfunded Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) orders from its backlog numbers.

• L-3 Communications’ sales for 2011 decreased by $511M (3%) to $15.2B. Growth in the C3ISR segment was not enough to compensate for lower sales elsewhere in the conglomerate. The funded backlog lost $396M (3.6%) to $10.7B.

• The US DoD announced [PDF] $18M in funds to 6 recipients for operational energy capability improvement.

• Catherine Ashton, head of the European Defence Agency (EDA), urged EU members to pool and share defense resources more aggressively but such calls have not been heeded much so far. Alignment of the British, French and Germans in the same project has proven elusive.

• The British MoD published its latest procurement and technology whitepaper [PDF], stating the intent to maintain science and technology spending at 1.2% or more of the defense budget. The report does mention in passing the EDA as well as NATO’s “Smart Defence” initiative, but its framework for cooperation with other countries will “generally favour bilateral collaboration on technology, equipment, and support issues, as we believe this offers the best balance of advantages and disadvantages. We will, however, continue to work multilaterally, for example through NATO or the EU, where this offers a clear benefit to the UK.” Coming later this year, a 10-year equipment plan.

• Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michelle Flournoy spoke at the Reserve Officers Association Symposium in the 1st video below. She toed the now familiar line from Panetta’s DoD. Flournoy will leave DOD at the end of the week.

• In the 2nd video below, CSBA’s Todd Harrison on the impact of projected FY13 cuts on the US Navy’s equipment and personnel:
  Continue Reading… »

• Some F-35s were grounded last week for a few days until replacement ejection seats are received. Parachutes were improperly packed, said [PDF] the F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO).

• The F-35 is what the Air Force plans to use for close-air support in place of A-10 squadrons lined up for closure. Between this and cancellation of the C-27J, the Army is sure to be delighted. This is likely to be contentious in Congress, though opposition to another BRAC will be much stronger. But are talks of another round of base closures just a clever sideshow?

• To what extent an army should have its own aviation is an old question revisited by the Center for Land Warfare Studies in India.

• If you look at defense spending relative to GDP, per capita, or as a percentage of total government spending, then the US remains way ahead of the European Union, as shown in data gathered [PDF] by the European Defence Agency.

• Section 231.205-18 of US defense acquisition regulations (DFARS) was amended to require major contractors to report independent research and development (IR&D) projects to the Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC). The rule is effective as of Jan. 30, 2012 and applies to “those contractors whose covered segments allocated a total of more than $11,000,000 in IR&D/Bid and Proposal (B&P) costs to covered contracts during the preceding fiscal year.” Here is the DTIC website where contractors are asked to upload their data.

• MV22s scheduled to be deployed at the U.S. base in Okinawa, Japan, will run test flights to address local residents’ concerns about noise levels.

• A student at the US Naval Postgraduate School is assessing the data-gathering potential of solar-powered, wave-propelled unmanned surface vehicles that might provide a cheap, mobile alternative to moored buoys for maritime surveillance.

Swiss F-5Es

Dassault: “Oh, you meant our FINAL final offer…” (Jan 29/12)

The F-5E/F Tiger II was a follow-on upgrade to the wildly successful F-5 Freedom Fighter, a low-budget aircraft designed to capture the lower tier of the non-Soviet global fighter market in the 1960s and 1970s. A number of countries still operate F-5s, but the airframes are very old. While F-5 owners like Brazil, Chile, Thailand, et. al. have opted for comprehensive refurbishment and upgrades, Switzerland is looking to replace 3 of its 5 Tiger II squadrons with new aircraft under its Tiger-Teilersatz TTE program. The new fighters will partner with the 3 squadrons of upgraded F/A-18C/D Hornets that make up the rest of its fighter fleet.

An initial evaluation RFP was issued to 4 contenders, but Boeing’s withdrawal narrowed the selection to Sweden’s Gripen, France’s Rafale, or EADS’ Eurofighter. A 2010 suspension of the competition was followed by a measured revival, thanks to the latest budgets – and now, by a provisional winner. No matter who won, though, left-wing opponents of Switzerland’s military would be working hard to derail the purchase. It’s likely to face a national referendum, just like the 1993 F/A-18 Hornet sale…

• The Swiss Competition
• The Competitors
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  Continue Reading… »

• Australian Defence Minister Stephen Smith told reporters the Department will review their JSF purchase timetable, in light last week’s confirmation that the US will take it slow.

• Jim Maslowski, President at Hawker Beechcraft Defense and a former US Navy Rear Admiral, is retiring tomorrow. Meanwhile retired USMC Gen. James E. Cartwright joined Raytheon’s board and former US Deputy Secretary of Defense William J. Lynn III has been confirmed as DRS Technologies’ new Chairman and CEO.

• EADS plans a big round of top management changes, in the usual balancing act between Germany and France: Tom Enders will replace Louis Gallois as CEO while Arnaud Lagardere take over as Chairman of the Board from Bodo Uebber.

• Opinions on the Pentagon’s budget preview: FPI, CRFB, Heritage, Stimson Center, and a video from CSIS at the bottom of this entry. CSIS ran these slides [PDF] during the talk that include a few multi-decade charts showing how previous drawdowns were executed. They’re not sold on booking $60B in efficiency savings before said savings are realized.

• Iraq’s future F-16IQ pilots have begun training in the USA. And Iraq’s officials have begun protesting the presence of American (unarmed) UAVs they’re saying they haven’t authorized.

• A Heron TP UAV crashed yesterday in Israel during tests, apparently because of a human error.

• “It’s not a case of IEDs on the battlefield. IEDs are the battlefield.” Says Joint IED Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) Director Lt. Gen. Michael D. Barbero quoting an officer in Afghanistan.
  Continue Reading… »

Top Pentagon officials gave a briefing yesterday on major budget decisions ahead of the FY13 President Budget request coming on Feb. 13. Highlights among the outlined priorities [PDF]:

• A relatively stable topline at $613.4B, made of a $525B baseline plus $88.4B overseas contingency operations (OCO). The former is a couple billion dollars below the FY10 actual budget and reflects a 5% decrease from the FY12 request, but in reality is just $6B below what DoD ended up getting last year. The OCO funds are 25% lower than last year’s $117.8B request but they remain at a pretty sizable level now that troops have left Iraq. Again, a significant part of the cuts Panetta and House Republicans have most vocally objected to are actually found in a) reductions vs. baseline growth previously projected by DoD – as opposed to net cuts – and b) a drop in war funding which arguably makes sense when you’re withdrawing troops from combat.

• Force and infrastructure adjustments, starting with a new base realignment and closure (BRAC) process. The last one dates from 2005 and wrapped up only very recently. Well, almost. Also, the start of a 5-year process that aims to lower active troops to 490,000 for the Army and 182,000 for the Marines; and a 10% reduction in the number of Air Force tactical air squadrons from today’s 60. A new BRAC is sure to open a whole new can of worms in Congress.

• Slowing down JSF procurement – again – to allow for more testing and address the laundry list of issues outlined in the latest DOT&E report [PDF]. This decision reflects the conclusions of the Concurrency Quick Look Review [PDF] that talked of a “lack of confidence in the design stability” and of the “concurrency driven consequences of the required fixes.”

• Retirement or divesting of 27 C-5As, 65 C-130s and 38 C-27s. Cancellation of Global Hawk Block 30 (not the whole program). Early retirement of 7 cruisers; delayed or reduced production of 14 ships, spread between LHA, LCS, JHSV, Virginia-class sub. Termination of the Defense Weather Satellite System (DWSS). Reduction in JAGM funding. Focus on JLTV rather than HMMWV Recap.
• Adjustments to pay raises shouldn’t start until 2015. Health care fees, co-pays and deductibles for retirees on the other hand will start to rise earlier. Beyond that, DoD is asking Congress to establish a commission to review military retirement. What could go wrong with that?

DID will obviously follow budget developments closely as they unfold and further details are made available. For reference, the FY12 DoD budget documents are found here. In other news: